赵彦茜
, 肖登攀, 柏会子
ZHAO Yanxi, XIAO Dengpan, BAI Huizi
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2018-05-18
修回日期: 2018-12-13
网络出版日期: 2019-02-28
版权声明: 2019 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
基金资助:
作者简介:
第一作者简介：赵彦茜(1992— ),男,河北南和人,研究实习员,主要从事作物模型应用研究。E-mail: 18233181223@163.com
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摘要
以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。
关键词：
Abstract
Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectly, which has important significance for detecting climate change. Research on crop phenology is crucial for preventing agricultural meteorological disasters, the progress of agricultural production management, and the safety of agricultural production. With the continuous increase of global surface temperature, research on crop phenology has attracted increasingly more attention of scientists. Based on the key research methods of crop phenology, this article summarizes the studies on the change of crop growth period and the main driving factors of change of major crops, including wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and soybean, in recent decades in China. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) Statistical analysis methods have been most widely used and several other methods were combined with statistical analysis methods in application. Model simulation method has also been widely used in phenological research, and such method is easy to operate. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops. 2) Overall, the whole growth period of wheat is mainly shortened, and the main trend of whole growth period of maize and rice is prolonged. 3) The driving factors of main crop phenological change is climate change and agricultural management. Climate change is the dominant driving factor, which decides crop phenological change, and adjusting agricultural management measures can partly offset the negative impact of climate change on crop growth period. The study of response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for agricultural production to adapt to climate change.
Keywords：
近百年来,全球气候变暖趋势越来越明显,地表平均温度上升了0.74℃,而近50 a来温度上升速率更是达到了0.13℃/10 a(IPCC, 2013)。气候变化对自然环境以及人类的生产与生活活动都产生了重要影响,其中对生物物候的影响尤为明显。从广义上说,物候是指生物长期适应气候条件下的周期性变化,并形成与此相适应的生长发育规律;狭义上讲,物候是指植物在自己生长阶段内,随气候的季节性变化而产生萌芽、开花等规律性变化的自然现象(方修琦等, 2002)。物候现象可以客观反映植物生长过程中对外界气候、生态环境条件的响应及适应性(Craufurd et al, 2009; Diskin et al, 2012),具体表现为植物生育期的提前、推迟以及生育阶段的延长、缩短等。物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,是气候变化研究不可或缺的指示标志。气候变暖通常会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,相关研究指出气温升高尤其是春季平均气温的升高对于冬小麦抽穗期与开花期影响极为显著,德国、澳大利亚、阿根廷以及美国大平原等地的冬小麦抽穗期和开花期均有提前(Hu et al, 2005; Sadras et al, 2006; Eyshi et al, 2015)。Chmielewski等(2004)对德国1961—2000年苹果、玉米等作物的拔节期和开花期等生育期进行分析,结果表明,气温升高导致作物生育期均呈提前趋势,早春时节的物候活动变化最为显著。Nicole等(2010)对德国20种多年生作物和单年生作物的物候进行对比研究,发现多年生作物对春季平均气温变化的响应比单年生作物更显著。Oteros等(2015)统计了西班牙1986—2010年燕麦、小麦等冬播作物以及玉米等夏播作物的主要物候变化趋势,发现冬播作物春季生育期提前,而夏播作物生育期变化较小。巴基斯坦主要作物(玉米、棉花、油菜和甘蔗等)物候对气候响应的相关研究指出,气候变化决定了作物生育期的变化趋势,而品种更新和播种期的调整则抵消了14%~30%的气候变化对生育期的影响(Ahmad et al, 2016; Abbas et al, 2017; Ahmad S, Abbas G et al, 2017; Ahmad S, Abbas Q et al, 2017)。在中国,通过利用长期观测资料系统分析全国各气候区小麦和玉米物候变化的时空特征,发现抽穗期和成熟期提前,营养生长期缩短,但生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。Zhang等(2014)研究了中国水稻物候变化的时空特征及其与气候变化、播种期和品种等农业管理措施之间的关系,发现尽管气候增暖导致生长期缩短,但水稻(晚稻例外)品种更替使水稻生长期延长。
综上所述,气候变化背景下,作物物候产生了显著的变化。作物物候的变化势必会影响作物光合作用产物的积累,最终表现为作物产量的变化。因此,作物物候研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业生产的安全都极为关键。在现阶段,国内外对作物物候研究逐渐增多,研究层次也在逐渐深入。本文综述了全球气候变暖背景条件下中国近几十年来主要农作物的物候变化状况,分析了物候变化规律特征,可为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据。
一般来讲,对作物物候的研究主要通过田间试验观测、统计分析、模型模拟以及遥感反演等方法,下面分别对4种方法进行简单介绍和评价。
通常情况下,作物物候期需要实地观测才能得到原始数据。因此,田间定位试验就成为研究作物物候变化最直观的方法。田间试验方法主要涉及改变播种期、改变生长环境(以改变温度条件为主)以及改变作物品种等几个方面。在中国,全国范围内多达778个农业气象站从20世纪80年代就开始对各区域主要作物物候进行了观测记录,其观测数据为后来多数科学家分析作物物候变化趋势和特征奠定了数据基础(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 2014)。另外,部分研究者还通过田间控制实验来研究不同因素对作物物候的影响。张彬等(2010)、陈金等(2010)和张鑫等(2014)在江苏省采用开放式或被动式增温系统对水稻和小麦进行夜间增温试验,来揭示夜间温度升高对水稻和小麦生育期的影响。杨洪宾等(2009)和张凯等(2012)分别通过设置不同播种期处理试验来研究播种期对小麦生育期变化的影响。Wang等(2016)于2012—2014年在中国农业大学吴桥试验站进行了夏玉米品种更换试验,通过种植20世纪50、70、90年代以及21世纪前10年等4个时期的不同夏玉米品种来研究品种变化情况下夏玉米生育期的变化特征。
田间试验所得到的观测数据是作物物候研究的第一手资料,比较精确可靠。但是,田间观测试验通常情况下需要耗费大量人力、财力、物力和时间,不适合作为作物物候长期研究的方法。此外,田间试验方法在区分和量化气候、品种和播种期等不同因素对作物物候的影响时存在一定的困难,试验设计需要不断完善才能获得较高精度的结果。
统计分析方法是通过对一段时间内作物物候的变化趋势及其影响因素的相关关系进行分析,从而得到作物生育期变化特征的研究方法。统计分析方法可以获取大范围、长周期的作物物候变化趋势,是研究作物物候变化最常用的方法。通常情况下,田间试验观测方法、模型模拟方法和遥感反演方法的使用均要与统计方法相结合。Tao等(2012)利用线性回归分析和皮尔森相关系数分析对中国小麦种植区内的冬小麦和春小麦的生育期变化趋势以及生育期变化与生育阶段内的平均温度和ATDU(accumulated thermal development unit, 表示品种的热量需求、春化作用需求和光周期敏感度等特性)的相关性进行了深入研究。Li等(2014)利用相似统计分析方法对东北地区的玉米物候变化特征进行了研究。一般而言,统计数据显示的作物物候变化是气候变化、作物管理措施调整等多种因素综合影响下的变化,为了研究各影响因子对作物物候影响的具体程度,普遍采用一阶差分法来量化区别气候与作物管理措施对作物生育期的影响(Lobell et al, 2005; Verón et al, 2015)。Liu等(2018)对小麦物候的研究中利用一阶差分法建立经验公式如下：
式中：
Zhang等(2014)通过计算中国主要水稻种植区内不同生育期(营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期)水稻的ATDU,根据1981年水稻各生育阶段的ATDU并结合1981—2009年水稻的移栽期估算了历年的水稻抽穗期和成熟期,获得单纯气候变化影响下的水稻生育期变化结果,水稻生育期观测数据结果与单纯气候变化影响下的结果之间的差值就是单纯品种更新影响下的水稻生育期变化结果。Mo等(2016)用上述方法对黄土高原的春小麦和夏玉米的生育期进行了研究。作物各生育阶段光热需求不仅可以通过计算ATDU得到,也可以通过计算生长度日(Growing degree days, GDD)得到(Grigorieva et al, 2010, Hu et al, 2015)。Hu等(2017)根据Gao等(1992)的研究方法获取了水稻生育期GDD参考值,然后基于GDD参考值计算历年水稻参考生育期,最后利用经验公式量化气候、品种以及播种期对水稻物候的影响。
统计分析方法是作物物候研究中应用最普遍的一种研究方法,可操作性强,研究周期长,范围广,信息量大,是了解历史气候背景下作物物候变化最有效的研究方法。相比于作物模型,统计模型所需数据更为简单,便于获取,但机理性不足,对许多影响因素考虑不充分,在量化影响因素作用时容易相互混淆。同时,统计模型外推效果较差,在预测未来气候情景下作物物候的变化趋势方面有很大局限性。
作物机理模型,是指对作物的生长、发育以及产量形成的过程和对环境反应能进行定量和动态描述的一种计算机模拟程序(李军, 1997),它可以在已有研究资料基础上对在多种模拟条件下的作物生长情况进行模拟,预测未知风险,优化农业资源管理措施。早在20世纪60年代后期,荷兰、美国等国就已经开始对作物模型进行开发研究,并开发出了一些较为单一的基础作物模型;之后,英国、澳大利亚等国也对作物模型进行了开发利用。经过几十年的发展,作物模型发展趋于完善,涌现出很多功能齐全、结构复杂的作物模型,例如澳大利亚的APSIM模型和美国的DSSAT模型等。
Wang等(2013)、He等(2015)和Xiao, Tao等(2016)利用APSIM模型分别对华北平原、黄土高原冬小麦和北方春小麦物候变化驱动因子进行归因研究。Wang X等(2017)对利用ORCHIDEE-crop模型量化了气候变化和移栽期调整对水稻生育期的影响。Liu L等(2012, 2013)利用RiceGrow模型设置了2种模拟试验,针对对象为气候因子和品种类型,移栽期等管理措施保持同一水平。
作物模型机理性很强,对作物生长影响因素考虑比较充分,可以定量描述不同气候因子作用,同时外推效果好,预测未来作物产量可信度较高。但作物模型结构复杂,需要大量的作物生长发育过程、土壤条件以及管理措施等详细输入数据,作物模型本地化处理有一定难度。同时,作物模型输入数据主要为单点数据,应用于区域尺度上的代表性不足。本土化处理和研究尺度代表性等是作物模型应用中不可避免的问题,需要进一步研究讨论。
通常情况下,田间试验法、统计分析法以及模型模拟法等主要基于站点研究尺度,对于区域的物候变化差异反映存在一定偏差,而遥感反演方法则可以通过遥感数据提取作物物候期进行大范围研究,从而更好地反映区域尺度上作物物候变化的特征和规律。一般而言,遥感反演方法主要是基于归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据提取作物物候期的方法。NDVI计算公式为：
式中：
Fang等(2005)利用NOAA/AVHRR的MVC NDVI数据提取了华北平原1982—2000年冬小麦的出苗期和收获期,结果表明该方法在冬小麦生育期提取上具有较好的适用性。Cong等(2013)基于GIMMS3g NDVI数据汇总分析了5种方法提取的中国春季生长作物返青期,由此获得更为精确合理的研究结果。Wang S等(2017)基于NOAA/AVHRR的GIMMS3g NDVI数据和改进的返青期提取算法提取了华北平原1982—2013年冬小麦的返青期,验证表明提取结果拥有较高的精度。Liu Z等(2017)对比分析了基于GIMMS3g NDVI和SPOT-VGT NDVI数据4种返青期提取方法所提取结果的可靠度,研究表明基于SPOT-VGT NDVI数据的返青期提取结果较基于GIMMS3g NDVI数据的提取结果相关性更好,准确度更高。
遥感反演方法突破了其他几种方法以站点研究为主的限制,可以有效反映大范围区域作物物候变化的整体状况。但遥感反演方法对地面作物的区分要求较高,特征不明显的作物生育期很难与其他作物生育期区分开,例如对冬小麦等春季生长作物生育期的提取集中在越冬返青期,该时期春季作物提取较易。
小麦、玉米和水稻是中国种植的主要粮食作物。因此,本文的研究重点集中在小麦、玉米和水稻三大粮食作物物候变化上。此外,对棉花、大豆等经济作物物候变化也有阐述。
小麦是中国三大粮食作物之一,种植范围广,面积大,产量高(中国农业年鉴编辑委员会, 2011)。根据播种时间的差异,全国小麦种植类型主要分为春小麦和冬小麦,春小麦主产区与冬小麦主产区大致以长城为界,长城以北为春小麦,长城以南为冬小麦。小麦物候研究集中在播种期、出苗期、抽穗期、开花期、成熟期等生育期以及营养生长期(播种期/出苗期至抽穗期/开花期)、生殖生长期(抽穗期/开花期至成熟期)和全生育期(播种期/出苗期至成熟期)等生育阶段(表1)。在区域尺度上,华北平原地区冬小麦物候研究居多,其次是西北地区。华北平原冬小麦物候变化特征为：播种期/出苗期推迟,抽穗期/开花期以及成熟期提前,营养生长期与全生育期缩短,而生殖生长期延长。华北平原冬小麦物候变化主要受气候变暖的影响,气温升高加快了小麦生长发育速度,缩短了小麦生育期,为了保证小麦产量而调整农业管理措施,最终导致营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2013; Li et al, 2016; Tao et al, 2017)。西北地区冬小麦物候变化特征研究结果差异较大,这可能主要与品种变化有关。在品种保持不变的情况下,气温升高、降水减少导致冬小麦播种期、开花期与成熟期推迟,全生育期缩短(Xiao et al, 2008);在气候变暖与作物品种更换共同作用下,冬小麦播种期、出苗期分别推迟1.2 d/10 a、1.3 d/10 a,开花期、成熟期提前3.1 d/10 a和3.7 d/10 a,全生育期和营养生长期分别缩短4.3 d/10 a、5.0 d/10 a,生殖生长期则延长0.7 d/10 a,通过作物模型模拟研究表明,单纯气候变化情况下小麦生育期变化更为显著,这表明晚播和小麦品种更换一定程度上抵消了气候变化对小麦生育期的影响(He et al, 2015)。
表1 中国小麦物候变化特征及驱动因子
Tab.1 Characteristics of change and driving factors of wheat phenology in China
| 分布区 | 物候变化 | 驱动因子 | 文献 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 全国春小麦/冬小麦种植区 | 1981—2009年,40%站点春/冬小麦HD和MD显著提前,30%站点WGP和VGP显著缩短,60%站点RGP显著延长 | 平均气温升高导致生育期提前,WGP和VGP缩短,品种变化延长RGP,日照长度缩短延长VGP | Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 2014 |
| 1980—2009年,冬小麦HD提前12.4 d/10 a,MD提前天数少于HD,VGP缩短,RGP延长6 d/10 a,WGP缩短11.3 d/10 a | 气候变暖导致生育期变化 | Xiao et al, 2015 | |
| 1981—2010年,春/冬小麦平均SD和EMD推迟,平均AD和MD提前,VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长 | 气候变暖导致春/冬小麦VGP和WGP缩短,RGP延长;品种变化导致小麦变化与观测结果趋势基本一致 | Liu et al, 2018 | |
| 北部地区 | 2001—2009年,冬小麦EMD和MD推迟,HD提前,WGP与VGP缩短,RGP延长 | 品种保持不变,气候变暖为主要影响因子 | 高辉明等, 2013 |
| 1980—2009年,春小麦AD和MD分别提前1.8 d/10 a、1.7 d/10 a,VGP和WGP分别缩短2.1 d/10 a和1.9 d/10 a,RGP延长0.2 d/10 a | 气候变暖导致生育期提前,生长阶段缩短,品种更新和推迟播种期则一定程度上抵消了气候变暖的影响 | Xiao, Tao et al, 2016 | |
| 西北半 干旱区 | 1981—2005年,冬小麦SD、ELD、AD、MD分别推迟0.3~0.4 d/a、0~0.2 d/a、0.3 d/a、0.2~0.4 d/a,WGP缩短0.6~1.3 d/a | 气温升高,降水减少导致生育期缩短 | Xiao et al, 2008 |
| 1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟,AD、MD提前;WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长 | 气候变暖导致生育期变化,播种期和品种变化减小了气候变暖对生育期的影响 | He et al, 2015 | |
| 华北 地区 | 1981—2009年,冬小麦EMD推迟,AD和MD提前,WGP缩短,AD至MD延长 | 气候变暖为主导因子,品种、播种期和农业管理措施变化等因素也有一定影响 | Tao et al, 2017 |
| 1982-2000年,冬小麦EMD和HAD均提前,HAD提前幅度更大,EMD—HAD缩短 | 气候变暖为主要影响因子 | Fang et al, 2005 | |
| 1980-2009年,冬小麦SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,其他生育阶段变化在站点间并不统一显著; | 气温升高导致SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,晚播导致SD至ELD缩短,品种变化对各站点影响不一 | Wang et al, 2013 | |
| 1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟, AD、MD提前,AD至MD延长,WGP缩短 | 气候变暖促使生育期变化,品种变化导致AD至MD略微延长 | Tao et al, 2013 | |
| 1981—2005年,冬小麦WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长 | 气候变暖缩短WGP、VGP,延长RGP,品种变化延长WGP和VGP,RGP在多数站点延长 | Li et al, 2016 | |
| 1982—2013年,冬小麦78%的区域GUD提前,平均提前1.8 d/10 a | 气候变化为物候变化主因,但土壤水分因素不能忽略,对返青期影响较大 | Wang S et al, 2017 |
从整体研究上看,由于区域气候、地理环境和农业管理措施的差异,区域间物候变化趋势不尽相同。在中国众多农业气象试验站中,40%的站点春小麦和冬小麦抽穗期和成熟期显著提前,60%的站点生殖生长期显著延长,30%的站点全生育期和营养生长期显著缩短,华北平原、黄土高原和四川盆地等地区全生育期缩短最为显著(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。春小麦和冬小麦生长季不同,因此物候变化程度也有较大差异。1980—2009年,冬小麦抽穗期平均提前12.4 d/10 a,成熟期提前速率小于抽穗期,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期延长6.0 d/10 a,全生育期缩短11.3 d/10 a(Xiao et al, 2015)。相对于冬小麦,春小麦生育期变化幅度明显更小。在1980—2009年,中国北方地区的春小麦开花期和成熟期提前,生殖生长期延长,营养生长期和全生育期缩短(Xiao, Tao et al, 2016)。春小麦变化幅度远不及冬小麦,这说明区域间气候变化程度以及小麦生长季内各生育阶段气候变化程度都存在较大差异。
玉米在粮食作物构成中仅次于水稻和小麦,居杂粮作物之首,在东北、华北、西北以及西南地区广泛种植,分布范围较广(表2)。根据播种时间的差异,中国玉米种植类型主要分为春玉米和夏玉米,其中春玉米主要分布在东北和西北地区;而华北和西南地区为春玉米与夏玉米混种区,其中,华北地区夏玉米种植居多,西南地区则主要是春玉米。玉米物候研究集中在播种期、出苗期、抽穗期/抽雄期、开花期、成熟期等生育期以及营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期等生育阶段(表2)。东北地区春玉米物候研究较多,但由于各地农业管理措施等差异,物候变化也有不同。41.5%的站点春玉米出苗期显著提前达10.0 d/10 a,在17%的站点则显著推迟;抽雄期在41.5%的站点显著提前,在13.2%的站点则显著推迟达到10.5 d/10 a;43.4%的站点成熟期显著推迟。生育阶段方面,43.4%的站点营养生长期缩短,56.6%的站点延长;生殖生长期在22.6%的站点缩短,77.4%的站点延长;全生育期在33.9%的站点显著延长(Li et al, 2014)。东北地区区域间的物候变化并不平衡,但总体的趋势较为明显,1981—2007年,东北地区播种期提前,成熟期推迟,全生育期延长,区域间物候变化起伏较大(Liu Z et al, 2013)。西北地区春玉米生育期的延长主要归结于晚熟品种的使用,玉米品种的变换抵消了气候变暖对玉米生育期的不利影响(Bu et al, 2015)。华北平原玉米物候研究主要集中在对夏玉米物候的研究上。在1980—2010年,华北平原夏玉米物候变化特征大致为：成熟期推迟,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期和全生育期延长(Wang et al, 2016; Xiao, Qi et al, 2016)。不同气候因子对玉米生育期的影响不同,玉米生育期与平均温度呈负相关关系,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日等气候因子呈正相关关系(Liu Y J et al, 2017)。
表2 中国玉米物候变化特征及驱动因子
Tab.2 Characteristics of change and driving factors of maize phenology in China
| 分布区 | 物候变化 | 驱动因子 | 文献 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 全国玉米种植区 | 1981—2009年,西北、东北、西南的春玉米SD显著提前,58.9%站点HD提前;东北和华北地区玉米MD显著延迟;41.1%站点玉米WGP显著延长 | 气温升高导致大约80%站点HD和MD提前,WGP缩短,品种变化则使得超过90%站点HD和MD推迟,WGP延长;除此之外,推迟播期也可以延长WGP | Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014 |
| 东北地区 | 1981—2007年,玉米SD提前,MD推迟4~21 d,RGP延长,WGP延长2~38 d | 气候变暖导致VGP、RGP和WGP缩短,品种变化则导致VGP、RGP和WGP延长,早播导致RGP缩短,VGP延长,但不显著 | Liu Z et al, 2013 |
| 1990—2012年,春玉米VGP在43.4%站点缩短,在56.6%站点延长;RGP在22.6%站点缩短,77.4%站点延长;WGP在33.9%站点显著延长 | 气候、品种、农业管理措施等因子综合影响导致区域生育期变化 | Li et al, 2014 | |
| 西北地区 | 1980—2010年,春玉米平均VGP、RGP和WGP延长 | 气候变暖缩短WGP,晚熟品种的使用则延长了WGP | Bu et al, 2015 |
| 华北地区 | 1981—2010年,夏玉米SD至ELD和ELD至AD在多数站点呈缩短趋势,RGP和WGP在92.6%站点呈延长趋势 | 平均温度与WGP呈负相关,降水量则呈正相关;气候变暖缩短玉米WGP,而品种变化则延长了玉米VGP、RGP和WGP | Wang et al, 2016 |
| 1981—2008年,夏玉米MD推迟,VGP缩短,RGP延长 | 气候变暖使得AD和MD提前,RGP缩短,品种变化则导致MD推迟、RGP延长2.4 d/10 a~3.7 d/10 a | Xiao, Qi et al, 2016 | |
| 1981—2009年,夏玉米SD推迟,EMD、ELD、TAD、AD和MD提前,VGP缩短0.9 d/10 a,RGP延长1.7 d/10 a,WGP延长0.4 d/10 a | 生育期长度与平均温度呈负相关,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日呈正相关 | Liu Y J et al, 2017 |
生育期与气候变化之间复杂的耦合关系以及农业管理措施的多元性导致了各地区玉米物候变化的不均衡。在种植玉米的农业气象站点中,西北、东北和西南的春玉米播种期显著提前,58.9%的站点玉米抽穗期提前;东北和华北平原地区玉米成熟期显著延迟,41.1%的站点玉米全生育期显著延长。在单纯气温升高(农业管理措施保持不变)的情况下,全国大约80%的站点抽穗期和成熟期提前,全生育期缩短。为了保证玉米产量,通过更换玉米品种使得超过90%的站点抽穗期和成熟期推迟,从而延长全生育期,保证了玉米产量;此外,推迟播种期也可以延长全生育期(Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。
水稻是中国总产最高的粮食作物,广泛分布于长江流域、珠江流域以及东北地区等。水稻种植类型主要分为单季稻和双季稻(早熟稻和晚熟稻),单季稻大致分布于长江以北地区、东北地区和西南地区,双季稻则主要分布在长江以南湿润地区(表3)。东北平原地区单季稻生育期变化趋势较为明显：播种期呈提前趋势,成熟期呈推迟趋势,营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期均呈延长趋势(Tao et al, 2013)。气候变暖与品种的更新换代是导致东北平原地区水稻生育期变化的主要因素。东北平原9月份气温升高在一定程度上会延长作物全生育期长度,而7月份温度升高则可能导致作物生育期缩短;同时,新育成长生育期品种是导致吉林省水稻生育期延长的主要影响因素,品种更换对黑龙江影响次之,对辽宁影响最小(侯雯嘉等, 2015)。长江中下游平原地区单季稻生育期变化趋势与东北平原变化趋势一致,移栽期平均提前2.11 d/10 a,抽穗期与成熟期分别推迟1.37 d/10 a和0.073 d/10 a,营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期分别延长3.03 d/10 a、1.53 d/10 a、4.28 d/10 a,其变化趋势较东北平原单季稻更为突出;双季稻生育期变化特征与单季稻生育期有较大不同,移栽期、抽穗期、成熟期均提前,营养生长期与全生育期缩短,生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2013)。
表3 中国水稻物候变化特征及驱动因子
Tab.3 Characteristics of change and driving factors of rice phenology in China
| 分布区 | 物候变化 | 驱动因子 | 文献 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 全国水稻种植区 | 1981—2009年,单季稻WGP在信阳、镇江延长显著,在武昌略有延长,在汉源变化较小 | 气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化延长了生育期,品种变化影响略大于气候变化影响 | Liu et al, 2012 |
| 1981—2009年,除衡阳晚熟稻WGP延长外,南昌、衡阳和高要的早熟稻和晚熟稻的WGP均缩短 | 气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化则延长了生育期,但气候变暖对生育期影响要大于品种变化的影响 | Liu L et al, 2013 | |
| 1981—2006年,单季稻和双季稻平均情况下,VGP缩短3.3 d/℃,RGP缩短1.2 d/℃,WGP缩短4.1 d/℃ | 气候变暖导致生育期缩短;单季稻和早熟稻品种变化影响不明显,晚熟稻VGP缩短0.9 d/℃,表明晚熟稻品种变化为短生育期品种 | Zhang et al, 2013 | |
| 1981—2009年,单季稻和双季稻的TPD、HD、MD提前,VGP、RGP、WGP变化程度相同 | 气温升高导致VGP和RGP缩短;品种变化使得单季稻VGP延长,双季稻VGP缩短,单季稻和早熟稻RGP延长 | Zhang et al, 2014 | |
| 1981—2012年,单季稻和双季稻的VGP变化幅度大于RGP变化幅度 | 气温升高对于单季稻、早熟稻以及晚熟稻的生育期变化的平均贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种变化则为58%、44%、-37% | Hu et al, 2017 | |
| 1991—2012年,早熟稻WGP平均延长(1.0±4.8) d/10 a,晚熟稻WGP平均延长(0.2±4.5) d/10 a,单季稻WGP平均延长(2.0±6.0) d/10 a | 气候变暖导致早熟稻生育期缩短,晚熟稻延长;移栽期的改变等农业管理措施是早熟稻和单季稻生育期变化的主导因素 | Wang X et al, 2017 | |
| 1981—2009年,单季稻HD、MD推迟,但单季稻、早熟稻和晚熟稻的平均TPD、HD、MD均提前;单季稻的VGP、RGP、WGP均延长,长江中下游平原双季稻则为VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长 | 气候变暖导致80%站点水稻生育期缩短,但品种变化延长了单季稻和长江中下游平原早熟稻的RGP,而晚熟稻WGP由于气候变化和品种变化共同作用而缩短 | Tao et al, 2013 | |
| 东北地区 | 1989—2009年,单季稻SD提前,MD推迟,VGP、RGP与WGP显著延长 | 气候变暖和新育成品种是1989—2009年影响东北地区水稻生育期延长的主要因素 | 侯雯嘉等, 2015 |
| 华北地区 | 1981—2007年,单季稻SD和TPD显著提前,SD至TPD逐渐缩短,TPD至HD和HD至MD延长,其中TPD至HD显著延长,气候倾向率达4.4 d/10 a | 信阳地区水稻生育期的变化主要受4—5月温度变化的影响 | 薛昌颖等, 2010 |
区域间气候变化、地理环境、种植制度和农业管理水平等的差异导致区域间水稻生育期变化特征的不同。从全国范围来看,单季稻和双季稻的移栽期、抽穗期、成熟期提前,早熟稻、晚熟稻和单季稻全生育期延长(Zhang et al, 2014; Wang X et al, 2017)。气候变化对水稻生育期变化的贡献比例与移栽期变化、品种更替等农业管理措施对水稻生育期变化的贡献比例相差较小,其中气候变暖对于单季稻、早熟稻、晚熟稻生育期变化的贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种更新对生育期变化的贡献比例则分别为58%、44%以及-37%,二者对水稻生育期的影响均不可忽视(Hu et al, 2017)。
国内对农作物物候的研究主要集中于小麦、玉米、水稻三大主要粮食作物上,对棉花、大豆等经济作物物候研究相对较少。Wang等(2008)对1983—2004年间中国西北地区的春棉花生育期变化进行了统计分析,研究表明,气候变暖导致春棉花的出苗期、发芽期、开花期、吐絮期分别提前10.9 d、9.0 d、13.9 d、16.4 d,出苗期至五叶期缩短5.3 d,五叶期至发芽期延长9.2 d,发芽期至开花期和开花期至吐絮期均延长,全生育期延长达到9.0 d。气候变化对棉花生长具有重要影响,尤其是生育期内最低温度与生育期变化紧密相关,但变化程度受具体生长环境条件以及种植品种特性影响。新疆干旱地区绿洲的棉花生育期变化幅度更为显著,播种期至出苗期、吐絮期至吐絮盛期分别缩短1.76 d和5.19 d,全生育期延长超过22 d(Huang et al, 2015)。相对而言,华北平原棉花生育期变化特征没有西北干旱地区突出,全生育期除北部偏干旱站点延长外,其余多数站点缩短(Wang Z et al, 2017)。棉花是华北地区和西北地区主要的经济作物,而东北地区的主要经济作物则是大豆。东北地区大豆生育期变化受气候变化影响较大,气候变暖导致大豆出苗期提前0.01~0.61 d/a,成熟期提前0.18~0.19 d/a,全生育期缩短0.06~0.17 d/a,变化幅度较小(李正国等, 2011)。
无论是粮食作物还是经济作物,作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施变化(品种变化、作物播种期变化等)两大影响因子,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用。
气候变暖对作物物候的影响不单指气温升高的影响,降水、日照时数等其他气候因子对作物生育期的影响也不容忽视(Tao et al, 2006)。此外,中国现阶段对作物生育期的研究集中在过去几十年作物物候变化规律特征上,但随着研究方法不断改进和完善,对未来气候变化情况下作物物候的预测研究在逐渐增多。准确模拟预测作物生育期,可以为作物各生育阶段的农业气象条件评估以及产量预报等活动提供理论支撑(李树岩等, 2015)。翟治芬等(2012)建立了不同农业种植区域气候变化与玉米物候期变化的回归方程,并将PRECIS模型(Providing Regional Climate for Impact Study)中的情景数据代入方程预测21世纪30年代中国玉米的生育期,结果表明,中国玉米全生育期变化趋势以延长为主。Lv等(2013)利用WheatGrow作物模型,结合高分辨率全球气候模式(Global Climate Model, GCM)对中国冬小麦主产区21世纪30、50以及70年代3种温室气体排放情况下冬小麦的开花期和灌浆阶段持续时间进行了模拟预测,在模拟预测试验中,小麦品种和播种期保持不变。预测结果表明,随着气温升高,开花期逐步提前,开花期提前幅度同气温升高程度相关性较强,灌浆阶段持续时间在未来变化比较平稳,缩短幅度较小。Chen等(2014)利用MIROC-RegCM3气候模型模拟预测了2030—2090年鲁西北平原地区气候,将预测气候数据代入CERES-Maize模型中,对2030—2090年鲁西北地区玉米生育期进行了预测模拟,结果表明,在品种和播种期保持不变的情况下,玉米灌浆阶段将会缩短,对玉米产量造成不利影响。
农作物物候研究对于农业环境评估、农业灾害预防以及农作物产量的稳定等均有重要意义。本文通过分析汇总中国近几十年主要农作物生育期的变化特征及其相应的研究方法,得出以下结论：
(1) 作物物候的研究方法主要是田间试验观测方法、统计分析方法、模型模拟方法和遥感反演方法等,其中使用最普遍的是统计分析方法,其他3种方法都需要结合统计分析方法。模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对生育期特征要求较高,研究的生育期一般为春季作物的返青期等。
(2) 中国对作物物候的研究主要集中在小麦、玉米、水稻等主要粮食作物以及棉花、大豆等主要经济作物上。各区域主要农作物生育期特征在气候变暖的背景下均产生了变化,但变化程度不同,这主要是由区域间气候条件、生态环境以及农业管理水平的差异造成的。
(3) 农作物的播种期/出苗期(水稻为移栽期)、抽穗期/开花期、成熟期、营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期是物候变化研究的重点生育期。整体上,小麦物候变化特征为：抽穗期/开花期和成熟期以提前为主,营养生长期和全生育期缩短,生殖生长期延长;玉米抽穗期和成熟期变化特征不显著,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期和全生育期以延长为主要趋势;水稻则由于区域间生长条件的不同导致区域间作物生育期变化趋势存在较大差异,总体上,全生育期呈延长趋势。
(4) 作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施变化两大影响因子,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用。气候变暖通常会造成作物生育期缩短,影响作物生长发育,减少作物产量。调整农业管理措施,例如种植长生育期品种、提前或推迟播种期等,提高管理水平,延长作物生育期,可以一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响,保证农业生产的安全。
作物物候研究意义重大。未来作物物候研究趋向于田间试验观测、作物模型以及统计分析等多种研究方法的结合使用,从而进一步提高研究结果的可靠性。在未来的研究中,主要应开展以下3个方面的工作：其一,进一步完善作物物候研究方法,通过改进作物模型和统计模型等提高模型模拟结果精度;其二,当下物候研究偏重于作物形态学研究,对作物生理学特征研究不足,作物生理学特征定量化难度较大是研究的一大难点;其三,不同地区作物物候对气候变化的响应机制是不同的,针对不同地区物候变化特征,采取相应的管理措施去应对气候变化,这也是未来作物物候研究的主要方向之一。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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被动式夜间增温设施设计及其增温效果 [J].
<p>为了建立一套简便节能的野外夜间增温设施，参照国际上夜间被动式增温系统（passive nighttime warming, PNW），在江苏丹阳设计了稻麦系统夜间被动式增温设施.结果表明：该系统可以保证15.75 m<sup>2</sup>的有效采样区域，温度增幅均匀，水稻冠层全生育期夜间平均温度升高1.1 ℃，冬小麦冠层和5 cm土层全生育期夜间平均温度分别提高1.3 ℃和0.8 ℃；该增温系统在运行期间，水稻和冬小麦全生育期的冠层和土壤温度的日变化趋势与非增温对照区基本一致.该系统使麦田土壤含水量略微降低，但对小麦生长的影响不明显.将该系统在我国水稻和冬小麦主要产区应用时发现，该夜间增温系统可以使水稻和冬小麦始花期分别平均提前3 d和5 d.该系统的增温效果在不同区域和季节存在一定的差异，但综合考虑该系统的增温均匀性和增温区域有效性，及其对稻麦生育期的影响效果，该设施不仅节能，而且可以满足野外增温试验研究的基本要求.</p>
Passive nighttime warming (PNW) system, its design and warming effect .
<p>为了建立一套简便节能的野外夜间增温设施，参照国际上夜间被动式增温系统（passive nighttime warming, PNW），在江苏丹阳设计了稻麦系统夜间被动式增温设施.结果表明：该系统可以保证15.75 m<sup>2</sup>的有效采样区域，温度增幅均匀，水稻冠层全生育期夜间平均温度升高1.1 ℃，冬小麦冠层和5 cm土层全生育期夜间平均温度分别提高1.3 ℃和0.8 ℃；该增温系统在运行期间，水稻和冬小麦全生育期的冠层和土壤温度的日变化趋势与非增温对照区基本一致.该系统使麦田土壤含水量略微降低，但对小麦生长的影响不明显.将该系统在我国水稻和冬小麦主要产区应用时发现，该夜间增温系统可以使水稻和冬小麦始花期分别平均提前3 d和5 d.该系统的增温效果在不同区域和季节存在一定的差异，但综合考虑该系统的增温均匀性和增温区域有效性，及其对稻麦生育期的影响效果，该设施不仅节能，而且可以满足野外增温试验研究的基本要求.</p>
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物候对全球变暖响应的研究综述 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.05.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>近100年来，尤其是在最近20多年，全球平均表面温度出现了显著上升，全球变暖已成为全球关注的重要问题。物候现象与气候等环境因素息息相关，物候对全球变暖的响应研究正在成为物候研究的一个新的热点领域，NDVI正日益成为植被对气候响应研究的重要手段。概述了当前物候对全球变暖响应研究的主要进展。基于实地动植物等物候观测和遥感监测的大量研究表明，近期动植物等物候正发生着显著变化：北半球中高纬度地区植被生长季延长、植物提早开花、昆虫提早出现、鸟类提早产蛋以及冰川退缩、永冻土带融化、江河湖泊结冰推迟而融化提早等，与气候变暖有密切关系，是对全球变暖的明显响应。目前国内的许多研究者在物候对气候变暖响应方面做了一些工作，但与国际研究进展相比，还有许多研究工作有待于进一步开展。</p>
Progress in the studies on the phenological responging to global warming .https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.05.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>近100年来，尤其是在最近20多年，全球平均表面温度出现了显著上升，全球变暖已成为全球关注的重要问题。物候现象与气候等环境因素息息相关，物候对全球变暖的响应研究正在成为物候研究的一个新的热点领域，NDVI正日益成为植被对气候响应研究的重要手段。概述了当前物候对全球变暖响应研究的主要进展。基于实地动植物等物候观测和遥感监测的大量研究表明，近期动植物等物候正发生着显著变化：北半球中高纬度地区植被生长季延长、植物提早开花、昆虫提早出现、鸟类提早产蛋以及冰川退缩、永冻土带融化、江河湖泊结冰推迟而融化提早等，与气候变暖有密切关系，是对全球变暖的明显响应。目前国内的许多研究者在物候对气候变暖响应方面做了一些工作，但与国际研究进展相比，还有许多研究工作有待于进一步开展。</p>
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2001—2009年中国北部冬小麦生育期和产量变化 [J].https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】研究中国北部冬麦区水地组小麦品种农艺性状适应气候变暖的变化规律，为小麦品种改良提供理论依据和指导方法。【方法】利用2001—2009年国家冬小麦区域试验北部冬麦区水地组对照品种的农艺性状和该地区相关气象资料，研究对照品种农艺性状变化规律，并进行农艺性状和气象要素的相关分析。【结果】对照品种出苗日期和成熟日期逐渐推迟；生育期逐渐缩短，且与年平均温度和生育期≥0℃积温呈负相关；生殖生长阶段随着相应期间≥0℃积温的增加而延长；随着气候变暖，千粒重和每公顷产量呈增加趋势。农艺性状相关分析表明，千粒重与每公顷产量呈极显著正相关，生殖生长阶段与每公顷产量呈较强正相关；多元线性回归分析表明，株高和千粒重2 性状决定了产量变异的95.7%。【结论】气候变暖对北部冬麦区冬小麦生长发育有较强的影响，选育生育期较短，但生殖生长阶段较长，千粒重大的高产品种是北部冬麦区未来适应气候变暖的品种改良方向。
Changes of winter wheat growth period and yield in Northern China from 2001-2009 .https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】研究中国北部冬麦区水地组小麦品种农艺性状适应气候变暖的变化规律，为小麦品种改良提供理论依据和指导方法。【方法】利用2001—2009年国家冬小麦区域试验北部冬麦区水地组对照品种的农艺性状和该地区相关气象资料，研究对照品种农艺性状变化规律，并进行农艺性状和气象要素的相关分析。【结果】对照品种出苗日期和成熟日期逐渐推迟；生育期逐渐缩短，且与年平均温度和生育期≥0℃积温呈负相关；生殖生长阶段随着相应期间≥0℃积温的增加而延长；随着气候变暖，千粒重和每公顷产量呈增加趋势。农艺性状相关分析表明，千粒重与每公顷产量呈极显著正相关，生殖生长阶段与每公顷产量呈较强正相关；多元线性回归分析表明，株高和千粒重2 性状决定了产量变异的95.7%。【结论】气候变暖对北部冬麦区冬小麦生长发育有较强的影响，选育生育期较短，但生殖生长阶段较长，千粒重大的高产品种是北部冬麦区未来适应气候变暖的品种改良方向。
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近20年气候变暖对东北水稻生育期和产量的影响 [J].
<div style="line-height: 150%">为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明: 1989—2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.</div><div style="line-height: 150%"></br> </div>
Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades .
<div style="line-height: 150%">为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明: 1989—2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.</div><div style="line-height: 150%"></br> </div>
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作物生长模拟模型的开发应用进展 [J].
论述了作物生长模拟模型的开发研究进展和模型的应用情况，并对作物生长模拟模型今后的研究提出了自己的见解
The progress in the development and application of crop growth simulation models .
论述了作物生长模拟模型的开发研究进展和模型的应用情况，并对作物生长模拟模型今后的研究提出了自己的见解
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气候变化对河南省夏玉米主栽品种发育期的影响模拟 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.012 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为模拟气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响，本文将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，分区进行主栽品种遗传参数调试验证，确定各区域品种平均遗传参数。将未来气候变化情景(A2和B2)下，2020s、2050s和2080s各时段的温度和降水增量加上基准值，模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米发育期的影响。模型调参验证结果表明：各区域品种遗传参数存在一定差异，豫西地区当前种植品种播种-开花所需积温高于其它地区，而豫北和豫东当前种植品种开花-成熟所需积温高于其它地区；各区开花期调参和验证误差RMSE为2～4d，相对误差NRMSE均小于10%；各区域成熟期调参误差RMSE均小于4d，验证误差RMSE为3～7d，除豫西区外，各区域调参及验证期间的成熟期相对误差NRMSE均小于10%。表明CERES-Maize模型对河南省各区域夏玉米发育期模拟精度均较高。未来气候变化影响模拟结果表明：A2和B2情景下，夏玉米营养生长期平均缩短4.7d和3.1d，全生育期平均缩短12.9d和8.6d。夏玉米生育期缩短日数与各时段增温幅度趋势一致，全省4个区域中豫西区生育期日数缩短最多。
Modelling the impacts of climate change on phenology of representative maize varieties in Henan Province .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.012 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为模拟气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响，本文将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，分区进行主栽品种遗传参数调试验证，确定各区域品种平均遗传参数。将未来气候变化情景(A2和B2)下，2020s、2050s和2080s各时段的温度和降水增量加上基准值，模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米发育期的影响。模型调参验证结果表明：各区域品种遗传参数存在一定差异，豫西地区当前种植品种播种-开花所需积温高于其它地区，而豫北和豫东当前种植品种开花-成熟所需积温高于其它地区；各区开花期调参和验证误差RMSE为2～4d，相对误差NRMSE均小于10%；各区域成熟期调参误差RMSE均小于4d，验证误差RMSE为3～7d，除豫西区外，各区域调参及验证期间的成熟期相对误差NRMSE均小于10%。表明CERES-Maize模型对河南省各区域夏玉米发育期模拟精度均较高。未来气候变化影响模拟结果表明：A2和B2情景下，夏玉米营养生长期平均缩短4.7d和3.1d，全生育期平均缩短12.9d和8.6d。夏玉米生育期缩短日数与各时段增温幅度趋势一致，全省4个区域中豫西区生育期日数缩短最多。
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| [7] |
气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物典型物候期变化趋势分析 [J].https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.20.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】分析气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物类型（水稻、玉米、春小麦和大豆）典型物候期（出苗期、抽穗期和成熟期）的变化趋势。【方法】应用气候倾向率（θ）确定农业气候资源特征和典型物候期的变化趋势与整体对应关系。【结果】近20年来，东北三省大部分地区≥10℃初日出现了提前趋势，初霜日不断推迟，温度生长期天数持续增加，≥10℃积温总体呈升高趋势。在此背景下，水稻和玉米均出现了出苗期提前（0.04＜θ＜0.55 d•a-1和0.04＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1）、成熟期推后（0.09＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1和0.23 ＜θ＜0.38 d•a-1）、以及生育期延长（0.31＜θ＜1.26 d•a-1和0.11＜θ＜0.57 d•a-1）的趋势；大豆则表现为出苗期提前（0.01＜θ＜0.61 d•a-1）、成熟期提前（0.18＜θ＜0.19 d•a-1）、生育期缩短（0.06＜θ＜0.17 d•a-1）的趋势；而春小麦典型物候期的变化趋势不明显。【结论】东北三省农业气候资源变化使作物生长期内温度适宜程度偏向好转，总体上有利于早种晚收、生育期长的作物品种的推广种植。
Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China .https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.20.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】分析气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物类型（水稻、玉米、春小麦和大豆）典型物候期（出苗期、抽穗期和成熟期）的变化趋势。【方法】应用气候倾向率（θ）确定农业气候资源特征和典型物候期的变化趋势与整体对应关系。【结果】近20年来，东北三省大部分地区≥10℃初日出现了提前趋势，初霜日不断推迟，温度生长期天数持续增加，≥10℃积温总体呈升高趋势。在此背景下，水稻和玉米均出现了出苗期提前（0.04＜θ＜0.55 d•a-1和0.04＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1）、成熟期推后（0.09＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1和0.23 ＜θ＜0.38 d•a-1）、以及生育期延长（0.31＜θ＜1.26 d•a-1和0.11＜θ＜0.57 d•a-1）的趋势；大豆则表现为出苗期提前（0.01＜θ＜0.61 d•a-1）、成熟期提前（0.18＜θ＜0.19 d•a-1）、生育期缩短（0.06＜θ＜0.17 d•a-1）的趋势；而春小麦典型物候期的变化趋势不明显。【结论】东北三省农业气候资源变化使作物生长期内温度适宜程度偏向好转，总体上有利于早种晚收、生育期长的作物品种的推广种植。
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| [8] |
气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.03.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
利用1961-2008年信阳气象站气象资料和1981-2007年信阳农业气象试验站水稻生育期观测资料,分析了气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响。结果表明:信阳地区近48a年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,但具有明显的阶段特征,1981年之前温度总体呈降低趋势,而1981年之后(含1981年)温度呈显著上升趋势;水稻生长季内4-5月变暖趋势最为显著,平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均显著上升,其它时段变暖趋势不明显。4-5月温度的显著升高使水稻播种和移栽日期呈显著提前的变化趋势;另一方面,由于生长季中后期温度变化不明显,水稻抽穗和成熟日期无显著变化,造成水稻移栽-抽穗期显著延长。播种期和移栽期提前,有利于水稻早生快发,培育适龄壮秧,移栽-抽穗期延长可相应延长水稻穗分化时间,有利于大穗的形成和产量的提高。
Effect of climate warming on rice growing stages in Xinyang .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.03.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
利用1961-2008年信阳气象站气象资料和1981-2007年信阳农业气象试验站水稻生育期观测资料,分析了气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响。结果表明:信阳地区近48a年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,但具有明显的阶段特征,1981年之前温度总体呈降低趋势,而1981年之后(含1981年)温度呈显著上升趋势;水稻生长季内4-5月变暖趋势最为显著,平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均显著上升,其它时段变暖趋势不明显。4-5月温度的显著升高使水稻播种和移栽日期呈显著提前的变化趋势;另一方面,由于生长季中后期温度变化不明显,水稻抽穗和成熟日期无显著变化,造成水稻移栽-抽穗期显著延长。播种期和移栽期提前,有利于水稻早生快发,培育适龄壮秧,移栽-抽穗期延长可相应延长水稻穗分化时间,有利于大穗的形成和产量的提高。
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| [9] |
播期对冬小麦生长及所需积温的影响 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.02.015 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为给应对气候变暖而进行播期战略性调整和确定播量提供科学依据,以济麦20为供试材料,对时间跨度为67d的12个播期的冬小麦生长及所需积温进行了对比研究。结果表明:随着播期的推迟,播种-出苗期需0℃以上积温有所增加,冬前主茎每长1叶、冬后关键生育期和全生育期所需0℃以上的积温大幅度减少。晚播处理的苗后积温利用率显著提高,推迟播期有利于节约光热资源,为上茬秋作物腾出较多积温,让其在田间充分灌浆和成熟。
Growth and required accumulated temperature of winter wheat under different sowing time .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.02.015 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为给应对气候变暖而进行播期战略性调整和确定播量提供科学依据,以济麦20为供试材料,对时间跨度为67d的12个播期的冬小麦生长及所需积温进行了对比研究。结果表明:随着播期的推迟,播种-出苗期需0℃以上积温有所增加,冬前主茎每长1叶、冬后关键生育期和全生育期所需0℃以上的积温大幅度减少。晚播处理的苗后积温利用率显著提高,推迟播期有利于节约光热资源,为上茬秋作物腾出较多积温,让其在田间充分灌浆和成熟。
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| [10] |
中国玉米生育期变化及其影响因子研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.22.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，分析中国玉米播种期和成熟期的变动情况以及气候资源变化特征。【方法】在收集整理全国2 414个县的玉米生育期数据的基础上，绘制了1970s和2000s中国玉米的播种期与收获期分布图；在整理全国618个气象站点1971—2010年气象资料的基础上，绘制了1970s时段和2000s时段中国年均温度、降雨和太阳辐射量空间分布图。以农业种植一级区为基本单位，建立不同区域农业气候资源变化与玉米生育期变化的回归方程，并将PRECIS模型中B2情景数据代入方程组预测2030s中国玉米的生育期。【结果】与1970s时段相比，2000s时段东北大豆春麦甜菜区的玉米播种期基本保持不变；其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期均提前约1—15 d；除东北大豆春麦甜菜区和北部高原小杂粮甜菜区春玉米的成熟期平均推迟了11 d和3 d，2000s时段其它玉米种植区域的成熟期平均提前3—12 d。2000s时段云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期缩短约5 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米生育期基本保持不变；其它各区域玉米生育期均有所延长。与2000s时段相比，B2情景下，2030s东北大豆春麦甜菜区的春玉米播种期将推迟2—5 d，其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期将提前2—19 d；东北大豆春麦甜菜区、北部高原小杂粮甜菜区和华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区的玉米成熟期将推迟4—15 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、长江中下游稻棉油桑茶区、川陕盆地稻玉米薯类柑橘桑区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米成熟期将提前2—12 d，南方丘陵双季稻茶柑橘区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米成熟期则基本保持不变。2030s时段黄淮海棉麦油烟果区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期则将缩短3—6 d，其它区域的玉米生育期将延长2—15 d。【结论】中国气候正朝着增温、变干和低辐射的方向发展。受温度、降雨和太阳辐射量变化的影响，中国不同农业种植区域内玉米生育期变动明显，其中除东北大豆春麦甜菜区外玉米播种期以提前为主，玉米成熟期的变动则较为复杂，玉米的生育期则以延长为主。
Change of maize growth period and its impact factor in China .https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.22.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，分析中国玉米播种期和成熟期的变动情况以及气候资源变化特征。【方法】在收集整理全国2 414个县的玉米生育期数据的基础上，绘制了1970s和2000s中国玉米的播种期与收获期分布图；在整理全国618个气象站点1971—2010年气象资料的基础上，绘制了1970s时段和2000s时段中国年均温度、降雨和太阳辐射量空间分布图。以农业种植一级区为基本单位，建立不同区域农业气候资源变化与玉米生育期变化的回归方程，并将PRECIS模型中B2情景数据代入方程组预测2030s中国玉米的生育期。【结果】与1970s时段相比，2000s时段东北大豆春麦甜菜区的玉米播种期基本保持不变；其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期均提前约1—15 d；除东北大豆春麦甜菜区和北部高原小杂粮甜菜区春玉米的成熟期平均推迟了11 d和3 d，2000s时段其它玉米种植区域的成熟期平均提前3—12 d。2000s时段云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期缩短约5 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米生育期基本保持不变；其它各区域玉米生育期均有所延长。与2000s时段相比，B2情景下，2030s东北大豆春麦甜菜区的春玉米播种期将推迟2—5 d，其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期将提前2—19 d；东北大豆春麦甜菜区、北部高原小杂粮甜菜区和华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区的玉米成熟期将推迟4—15 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、长江中下游稻棉油桑茶区、川陕盆地稻玉米薯类柑橘桑区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米成熟期将提前2—12 d，南方丘陵双季稻茶柑橘区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米成熟期则基本保持不变。2030s时段黄淮海棉麦油烟果区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期则将缩短3—6 d，其它区域的玉米生育期将延长2—15 d。【结论】中国气候正朝着增温、变干和低辐射的方向发展。受温度、降雨和太阳辐射量变化的影响，中国不同农业种植区域内玉米生育期变动明显，其中除东北大豆春麦甜菜区外玉米播种期以提前为主，玉米成熟期的变动则较为复杂，玉米的生育期则以延长为主。
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农田开放式夜间增温系统的设计及其在稻麦上的试验效果 [J].https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.00620 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<div><a name="OLE_LINK31">气候变暖存在明显的昼夜不对称性，夜间增温显著高于白天。</a><span>设计可靠的田间增温设施，研究作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应意义显著。为此，笔者参考国际相关增温系统，于</span><span>2006</span><span>—</span><span>2009</span><span>年在江苏南京设计并运行了我国首个农田开放式夜间增温系统</span><span>(</span><span>FATI</span><span>: </span><span>Free Air Temperature Increased)</span><span>，对稻麦进行夜间主动增温试验，监测系统温度、麦田土壤水分和作物生育进程和产量，以评价该系统的可行性和对稻麦的增温效果。结果表明，该系统有效且均匀的增温范围为</span><span>4 m<sup>2</sup></span><span>，增温效果明显。在测试用的人工草坪上，晴天、阴天和雨天</span><span>3</span><span>种天气情况下，该系统</span><span>4 m<sup>2</sup></span><span>有效增温范围内地表的夜温平均升高</span><span>2.4</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>2.3</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>2.1</span><span>℃</span><span>。在草坪的垂直层面上，该系统可以使距地下</span><span>5 cm</span><span>、地表、地上</span><span>40 cm</span><span>和</span><span>90 cm 4</span><span>个层次的夜温平均分别提高</span><span>1.2</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>2.3</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>0.7</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>2.2</span><span>℃</span><span>。在稻麦两熟农田中，稻季全生育期地下</span><span>5 cm</span><span>、地表、植株中部和冠层的夜温平均分别提高</span><span>0.7</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>0.6</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.0</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>1.6</span><span>℃</span><span>，麦季相应层次可升高</span><span>1.2</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.5</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.8</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>1.9</span><span>℃</span><span>。在稻麦全生育期内，增温小区各层温度的变化动态与未增温区的一致。另外，该系统未改变麦田耕层土壤水分分布特征，尽管耕层土壤含水量略有降低，</span><span>0</span><span>~</span><span>25 cm</span><span>内各层土壤含水量的降幅均在</span><span>0.99</span><span>~</span><span>1.62</span><span>个百分点以内，与未增温区差异不显著。夜间增温可以显著缩短作物前期生育期，使稻麦始穗期分别提早</span><span>2.5 d</span><span>和</span><span>11.5 d</span><span>；同时，夜间增温使水稻平均减产</span><span>4.51%</span><span>，但小麦增产</span><span>18.30%</span><span>。尽管在作物的不同生育期，该设施的增温幅度有所差异，但这与田间实际情况下不同季节气候变暖幅度不同之特征是一致的。因此，该开放式夜间增温系统符合气候变暖的温度变化特征，可以满足水稻和小麦所代表的典型作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应的试验研究要求。</span></div>
System design of Free Air Temperature Increased (FATI) for field nighttime warming experiment and its effects on rice-wheat cropping system .https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.00620 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<div><a name="OLE_LINK31">气候变暖存在明显的昼夜不对称性，夜间增温显著高于白天。</a><span>设计可靠的田间增温设施，研究作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应意义显著。为此，笔者参考国际相关增温系统，于</span><span>2006</span><span>—</span><span>2009</span><span>年在江苏南京设计并运行了我国首个农田开放式夜间增温系统</span><span>(</span><span>FATI</span><span>: </span><span>Free Air Temperature Increased)</span><span>，对稻麦进行夜间主动增温试验，监测系统温度、麦田土壤水分和作物生育进程和产量，以评价该系统的可行性和对稻麦的增温效果。结果表明，该系统有效且均匀的增温范围为</span><span>4 m<sup>2</sup></span><span>，增温效果明显。在测试用的人工草坪上，晴天、阴天和雨天</span><span>3</span><span>种天气情况下，该系统</span><span>4 m<sup>2</sup></span><span>有效增温范围内地表的夜温平均升高</span><span>2.4</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>2.3</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>2.1</span><span>℃</span><span>。在草坪的垂直层面上，该系统可以使距地下</span><span>5 cm</span><span>、地表、地上</span><span>40 cm</span><span>和</span><span>90 cm 4</span><span>个层次的夜温平均分别提高</span><span>1.2</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>2.3</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>0.7</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>2.2</span><span>℃</span><span>。在稻麦两熟农田中，稻季全生育期地下</span><span>5 cm</span><span>、地表、植株中部和冠层的夜温平均分别提高</span><span>0.7</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>0.6</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.0</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>1.6</span><span>℃</span><span>，麦季相应层次可升高</span><span>1.2</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.5</span><span>℃</span><span>、</span><span>1.8</span><span>℃</span><span>和</span><span>1.9</span><span>℃</span><span>。在稻麦全生育期内，增温小区各层温度的变化动态与未增温区的一致。另外，该系统未改变麦田耕层土壤水分分布特征，尽管耕层土壤含水量略有降低，</span><span>0</span><span>~</span><span>25 cm</span><span>内各层土壤含水量的降幅均在</span><span>0.99</span><span>~</span><span>1.62</span><span>个百分点以内，与未增温区差异不显著。夜间增温可以显著缩短作物前期生育期，使稻麦始穗期分别提早</span><span>2.5 d</span><span>和</span><span>11.5 d</span><span>；同时，夜间增温使水稻平均减产</span><span>4.51%</span><span>，但小麦增产</span><span>18.30%</span><span>。尽管在作物的不同生育期，该设施的增温幅度有所差异，但这与田间实际情况下不同季节气候变暖幅度不同之特征是一致的。因此，该开放式夜间增温系统符合气候变暖的温度变化特征，可以满足水稻和小麦所代表的典型作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应的试验研究要求。</span></div>
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| [12] |
播期对春小麦生长发育及产量的影响 [J].
为了给陇中半干旱区春小麦高产栽培提供依据，2010年在甘肃定西进行了春小麦分期播种试验，并对不同播期条件下春小麦生长发育及产量形成进行了分析。结果表明：随着播期的推迟，春小麦播种-抽穗期日数减少、全生育期明显缩短；5月下旬之前，越早播种的春小麦LAI越大，5月下旬之后，播种愈晚春小麦LAI越大。早播春小麦LAI峰值靠前，晚播峰值滞后；6月下旬之前，播期早的春小麦叶绿素含量高于播期晚的，6月下旬之后播期愈早叶绿素含量下降愈快；不同播期春小麦群体生长率和净同化率在孕穗-抽穗期后差异显著，表现为3月18日播期最大，4月7日播期最小。各播期干物质累积在拔节期后表现为快速递增趋势。在拔节期前，早播处理的干物质积累速率较慢。随着播期的推迟，单株干物质最大积累速率出现时间提前，籽粒最大灌浆速率出现时间推迟，千粒重表现为先升后降；灌浆3个阶段各参数受播期影响比较显著；早播春小麦产量最高。
Effects of sowing date on the growth and yield of spring wheat .
为了给陇中半干旱区春小麦高产栽培提供依据，2010年在甘肃定西进行了春小麦分期播种试验，并对不同播期条件下春小麦生长发育及产量形成进行了分析。结果表明：随着播期的推迟，春小麦播种-抽穗期日数减少、全生育期明显缩短；5月下旬之前，越早播种的春小麦LAI越大，5月下旬之后，播种愈晚春小麦LAI越大。早播春小麦LAI峰值靠前，晚播峰值滞后；6月下旬之前，播期早的春小麦叶绿素含量高于播期晚的，6月下旬之后播期愈早叶绿素含量下降愈快；不同播期春小麦群体生长率和净同化率在孕穗-抽穗期后差异显著，表现为3月18日播期最大，4月7日播期最小。各播期干物质累积在拔节期后表现为快速递增趋势。在拔节期前，早播处理的干物质积累速率较慢。随着播期的推迟，单株干物质最大积累速率出现时间提前，籽粒最大灌浆速率出现时间推迟，千粒重表现为先升后降；灌浆3个阶段各参数受播期影响比较显著；早播春小麦产量最高。
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| [13] |
夜间增温对江苏不同年代水稻主栽品种生育期和产量的影响 [J].
<div style="line-height: 150%">采用开放式主动增温系统，在江苏省丹阳市开展夜间增温试验，研究夜间温度升高对江苏1970s—2000s 8个主要推广水稻品种生育期和产量的影响.结果表明：不同年代水稻品种的主要生长特性对夜间增温的响应程度存在明显差异，但响应趋势基本一致.全生育期内水稻冠层夜间温度平均升高0.9 ℃，水稻始穗期平均提前1.1 d，全生育期缩短1.3 d.夜间增温下，花后总绿叶面积和剑叶面积呈下降趋势，成熟期生物学产量和籽粒产量分别平均降低了3.5%和5.1%，植株N含量也降低.产量构成分析发现，夜间增温主要通过降低水稻有效穗数和穗粒数使产量下降，单位面积总颖花数下降了12.6%.品种间并未随年代发展而出现明显的变化趋势，新老品种间差异不显著.</div><div style="line-height: 150%"></br> </div>
Impacts of nighttime warming on rice growth stage and grain yield of leading varieties released in different periods in Jiangsu Province, China .
<div style="line-height: 150%">采用开放式主动增温系统，在江苏省丹阳市开展夜间增温试验，研究夜间温度升高对江苏1970s—2000s 8个主要推广水稻品种生育期和产量的影响.结果表明：不同年代水稻品种的主要生长特性对夜间增温的响应程度存在明显差异，但响应趋势基本一致.全生育期内水稻冠层夜间温度平均升高0.9 ℃，水稻始穗期平均提前1.1 d，全生育期缩短1.3 d.夜间增温下，花后总绿叶面积和剑叶面积呈下降趋势，成熟期生物学产量和籽粒产量分别平均降低了3.5%和5.1%，植株N含量也降低.产量构成分析发现，夜间增温主要通过降低水稻有效穗数和穗粒数使产量下降，单位面积总颖花数下降了12.6%.品种间并未随年代发展而出现明显的变化趋势，新老品种间差异不显著.</div><div style="line-height: 150%"></br> </div>
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| [14] |
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Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.07.012 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
react-text: 215 Crop phenology influences the partitioning of assimilates, crop yield and agronomic management under changing climate. It is critical to quantify the interaction between climate warming and crop management on sugarcane phenology to understand the adaptation of crop to climate change. Similarly, in crop modeling parameterizing the phenology of new crop varieties is a major challenge. Historical... /react-text react-text: 216 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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| [16] |
Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12206 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to changes in climatic conditions. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of warming trends on phenology of canola from 1980 to 2014 for central and southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were delayed by an average of 6.02, 3.14, 3.31 and 1.8902days per decade, respectively. The duration of sowing to anthesis, sowing to physiological maturity and anthesis to physiological maturity phases decreased an average 2.71, 4.13 and 1.4202days per decade, respectively, for all 10 locations that were analysed in this study. The sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were positively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average 2.71, 1.41, 1.49 and 0.8502days per °C, respectively. However, the phenological phases such as sowing to anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing to maturity were negatively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average of 1.22, 0.64 and 1.8602days per °C, respectively, for all 10 locations. Applying a process‐based CSM‐CROPGRO‐Canola model using a standard cultivar (field tested) for all locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages occurred earlier due to the warming trend compared to the observed phenological stages. One‐quarter of the negative effects of this thermal trend was compensated by growing new cultivars that had higher thermal time requirements. Therefore, new canola genotypes with a higher number of growing degree day requirement and high temperature tolerance should be a priority for evolving new cultivars.
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| [17] |
Quantification of climate warming and crop management impacts on cotton phenology [J].https://doi.org/10.3390/plants6010007 URL PMID: 28208605 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding the impact of the warming trend on phenological stages and phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in central and lower Punjab, Pakistan, may assist in optimizing crop management practices to enhance production. This study determined the influence of the thermal trend on cotton phenology from 1980–2015 in 15 selected locations. The results demonstrated that observed phenological stages including sowing (S), emergence (E), anthesis (A) and physiological maturity (M) occurred earlier by, on average, 5.35, 5.08, 2.87 and 1.12 days decade611, respectively. Phenological phases, sowing anthesis (S-A), anthesis to maturity (A-M) and sowing to maturity (S-M) were reduced by, on average, 2.45, 1.76 and 4.23 days decade611, respectively. Observed sowing, emergence, anthesis and maturity were negatively correlated with air temperature by, on average, 612.03, 611.93, 611.09 and 610.42 days °C611, respectively. Observed sowing-anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing-maturity were also negatively correlated with temperature by, on average, 610.94, 610.67 and 611.61 days °C611, respectively. Applying the cropping system model CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model using a standard variety in all locations indicated that the model-predicted phenology accelerated more due to warming trends than field-observed phenology. However, 30.21% of the harmful influence of the thermal trend was compensated as a result of introducing new cotton cultivars with higher growing degree day (thermal time) requirements. Therefore, new cotton cultivars which have higher thermal times and are high temperature tolerant should be evolved.
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| [18] |
Quantification of climate warming and crop management impact on sugarcane phenology [J].https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01419 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
react-text: 351 Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to... /react-text react-text: 352 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays, L.) in northwestern China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.09.010 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Global warming is predicted to have adverse effects on crop productivity and will present an enormous challenge to sustainable development and food security, especially in dryland regions. Prior studies have identified that adapted crop cultivars could effectively act to offset the effects of climate warming; however, the water use of adapted cultivars subject to climate warming is much less understood. We analysed warming trends across the Loess Plateau in north-western China beginning in 1960. There has been significant warming, especially since 1980, with an increase in the growing degree days (GDD, from April to September) of 260–330°C being observed over the past 30 years. If the maize cultivars had remained unchanged, the decreased yield potential would have been 0.39–1.83tha611 over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, the use of historical maize varieties has resulted in significantly decreased water use efficiency (WUE) across the Loess Plateau. Based on the increase in the GDD in each decade, we suggest planting adapted later-maturing maize cultivars to improve productivity. Compared with historical cultivars, the adapted later-maturing varieties significantly prolonged the maize growing cycle by an average of 27 d, thereby increasing the yield potential by 24.2–64.8% and the WUE by 9.0–38.1% throughout the Loess Plateau. However, the adapted maturing varieties may increase the water consumption (ET), which is the disadvantage for sustainable dryland farming, especially in dry regions. Hence, continuing to develop water-harvesting techniques (e.g., plastic film mulching) will help to offset the decreasing rainfall and guarantee food security and sustainability in dry regions.
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| [20] |
The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong Province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario [J]. |
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Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961-2000 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00161-8 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Distinct changes in air temperature since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in plant phenology in many parts of the world. In Germany phenological phases of the natural vegetation as well as of fruit trees and field crops have advanced clearly in the last decade of the 20th century. The strongest shift in plant development occurred for the very early spring phases. The late spring phases and summer phases reacted also to the increased temperatures, but they usually show lower trends. Until now the changes in plant development are still moderate, so that no strong impacts on yield formation processes were observed. But further climate changes will probably increase the effect on plants, so that in the future stronger impacts on crop yields are likely.
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| [22] |
Changes in satellite-derived spring vegetation green-up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: A multimethod analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12077 URL PMID: 23504844 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one understudied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite-derived spring phenology. To account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multimethod investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate China, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. Over temperate China, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green-up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. Moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green-up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. The large intermethod variance was notably observed in arid and semiarid vegetation types. Our results also showed that change in vegetation green-up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. However, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green-up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. This intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature.
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| [23] |
Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp196 URL PMID: 19505929 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO(2)] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO(2) enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO(2)] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in +1 degree C steps) and temperature variability (0% and +50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.
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The phenology of rubus fruticosus in Ireland: Herbarium specimens provide evidence for the response of phenophases to temperature, with implications for climate warming [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0524-z URL PMID: 22382508 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
AbstractTo date, phenological research has provided evidence that climate warming is impacting both animals and plants, evidenced by the altered timing of phenophases. Much of the evidence supporting these findings has been provided by analysis of historic records and present-day fieldwork; herbaria have been identified recently as an alternative source of phenological data. Here, we used Rubus specimens to evaluate herbaria as potential sources of phenological data for use in climate change research and to develop the methodology for using herbaria specimens in phenological studies. Data relevant to phenology (collection date) were recorded from the information cards of over 600 herbarium specimens at Ireland’s National Herbarium in Dublin. Each specimen was assigned a score (0–5) corresponding to its phenophase. Temperature data for the study period (1852 – 2007) were obtained from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU); relationships between temperature and the dates of first flower, full flower, first fruit and full fruit were assessed using weighted linear regression. Of the five species of Rubus examined in this study, specimens of only one (R. fruticosus) were sufficiently abundant to yield statistically significant relationships with temperature. The results revealed a trend towards earlier dates of first flower, full flower and first fruit phenophases with increasing temperature. Through its multi-phenophase approach, this research serves to extend the most recent work—which validated the use of herbaria through use of a single phenophase—to confirm herbarium-based research as a robust methodology for use in future phenological studies.
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| [25] |
Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat-phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming [J].
Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951 2009, interpolated to 1 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.
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| [26] |
Variability of the phenological stages of winter wheat in the North China Plain with NOAA/AVHRR NDVI data (1982-2000) [C]// |
| [27] |
Rice clock model: A computer model to simulate rice development [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(92)90071-B URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper describes a simulation model of rice development. It consists of four submodels dealing with: (1) phenology; (2) leaf age; (3) total leaf number; (4) organ development. After combining the first two submodels, the submodel of (3) was obtained, which could be used to predict the total number of leaves on the main culm. With the synchronous relationship between development of leaves and organs, the morphological appearance and organ development for a given rice variety can be predicted. Model parameters were determined using rice data from 15 locations in the Yangtze River Valley, China for 1985–1986. The model was validated with a separate data set collected from Jiangsu province during 1988–1989. The average error in heading date for that test was 3.5 days with a correlation coefficient of 0.88.
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| [28] |
Analysis of growing degree-days as a climate impact indicator in a region with extreme annual air temperature amplitude [J].https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00888 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract We used the concept of growing degree-days (GDD) as a measure of the agricultural potential of climate on a regional scale in the southern part of the Russian Far East, the climate of which is characterized by thermal extremes. Daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were used to calculate GDD at 17 locations using threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15?C, with a high-temperature threshold cut-off of 30?C. GDD increased from north to south in the study area, but the mean GDD varied considerably from one location to another. Marginal thermal conditions were observed in the north, both in the elevated areas and in the coastal regions. There was a high correlation between GDD and mean monthly temperature for the growing season from May to September (T59), such that the latter can be used as a proxy for GDD, which has implications for agricultural management. GDD and T59 had an upward trend over the 1966-2005 period for the study region as a whole. The most significant upward trend was observed
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| [29] |
Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.011 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Crop yields are influenced by growing season length, which are determined by temperature and agronomic management, such as sowing date and changes in cultivars. It is essential to quantify the interaction between climate change and crop management on crop phenology to understand the adaptation of farming systems to climate change. Historical changes in winter wheat phenology have been observed across the Loess Plateau of China during 1981–2009. The observed dates of sowing, emergence, and beginning of winter dormancy were delayed by an average of 1.2, 1.3, and 1.2daysdecade611, respectively. Conversely, the dates of green-up (regrowth after winter dormancy), anthesis, and maturity advanced by an average of 2.0, 3.7, and 3.1daysdecade611, respectively. Additionally, the growth duration (sowing to maturity), overwintering period, and vegetative phase (sowing to anthesis) shortened by an average of 4.3, 3.1, and 5.0daysdecade611, respectively. The changes in phenological stages and phases were significantly negatively correlated with a temperature increase during this time. Differently to most other phase changes, the reproductive phase (anthesis to maturity) prolonged by an average of 0.7daydecade611, but this was spatially variable. The prolonged reproductive phase was due to advanced anthesis dates and consequently caused the reproductive phase to occur during a cooler part of the season, which led to an extended reproductive phase. Applying a crop simulation model using a field-tested standard cultivar across locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages have accelerated with the warming trend more than the observed phenological stages. This indicated that, over the last decades, later sowing dates and the introduction of new cultivars with longer thermal time requirement have compensated for some of the increased temperature-induced changes in wheat phenology.
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| [30] |
Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.01.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Phenological change of plants is an indication of local and regional climate change, independent of the instrumentation records and associated bias/error. Although some phenological changes have been identified for native and perennial species and used to infer climate change in various regions of the world, little has been known for changes in agricultural plants/crops. In this study, heading or flowering dates of winter wheat cultivar Kharkof are examined from 70 years of data at six locations in the U.S. Great Plains. Results indicate a consistent trend of earlier heading or flowering dates across all sites, but rates of the trend differ (from 0.8 to 1.8 days per 10-year). Because the heading or flowering date is governed primarily by temperatures, the earlier heading or flowering dates indicate warming temperatures in the spring. Further examinations reveal increase in spring daily minimum temperatures. Findings of this study add a diverse species to the plant community for detecting the “fingerprint” of regional and global climate change.
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| [31] |
Shifts in cultivar and planting date have regulated rice growth duration under climate warming in China since the early 1980s [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.07.014 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Climate warming accelerates crop development and shortens growth duration. The adoption of new cultivars and changes in planting date may either retard or amplify this acceleration. However, the extent to which the cultivar and planting date shifts have impacted rice growth duration under climate warming remains largely unknown. Using an up-to-date data series from 82 agro-meteorological stations in China where rice phenology was observed from 1981 to 2012, we quantified the impacts of climate warming, cultivar and planting date shifts on rice growth duration based on a degree-days calculation. The results indicate that climate warming shortened the growth duration length (GDL) between emergence and maturity at rates of 4.202±020.7 (mean02±02SE), 1.802±020.3 and 3.902±020.5days 10-yr 611 for single, early and late rice. GDL shortening was more pronounced in the vegetative phase than in the reproductive phase for single and early rice, but it was opposite for late rice system. Cultivar shifts prolonged the GDL at rates of 6.102±021.0 and 1.702±020.6days 10-yr 611 for single and early rice but induced GDL shortening of 4.102±021.6days 10-yr 611 for late rice. The effect of planting date shifts (advanced or delayed) on GDL change was variable and depended on the rice cropping system. On average, climate warming accelerated crop development, with a relative contribution to GDL changes of 6140% in single rice, 6145% in early rice, and 6135% in late rice. Cultivar shifts compensated for the GDL shortening induced by climate warming in single and early rice with the relative contribution of 58% and 44%, respectively, but accelerated crop development in late rice with a contribution of 6137%. Nevertheless, the planting date at two-thirds of the late rice stations was significantly delayed, which retarded the acceleration by 29% in terms of GDL changes.
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| [32] |
Premature heading and yield losses caused by prolonged seedling age in double cropping rice [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.08.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Increasing the frequency of harvests through multiple cropping is a promising way to increase global food production. In double cropping rice, prolonged seedling age leads to yield losses; however, the underlying mechanisms that cause yield reduction are poorly understood. In this study, field experiments were conducted in the early and late growing seasons of 2013 and 2014 in Zhangbang village, Wuxue county, Hubei province, China. Two seedling age treatments (control and prolonged) were studied in a randomized complete block design with four replications. Compared to the control seedling age treatment of 30–35 days, grain yield was reduced in the prolonged seedling age treatment of 40–46 days by 17.9% in the early growing season of 2013 and 2014, and 18.2% in the late growing season of 2014. Yield loss resulted from reduced biomass and grain weight. Premature heading was observed in the prolonged seedling age treatment in both growing seasons; main stem heading occurred 8–13 days earlier and tiller stem heading about 8 days later compared to the control seedling age treatment. Full heading was completed within 12 days in the control seedling age treatment, while in the prolonged seedling age treatment within 27–33 days. In the prolonged seedling age treatment, yield loss resulted from the reduced grain yield of both stem types, one bearing premature-heading panicles and the other bearing normal-heading panicles. Single-stem measurements, including biomass, grain weight, plant height, leaf area, length and width of flag leaf, and degeneration of panicle branches and spikelets, significantly changed in both stem types. Overall, it is important to prevent prolonged seedling age in double cropping rice mainly through the reasonable arrangement of crops in a rotation system.
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| [33] |
Effects of climate change on phenological trends and seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0904-7 URL PMID: 25240389 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of cotton (L.) in oasis of arid regions may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study assessed the impacts of climatic changes on the phenological phases and productivity of spring cotton. The results showed that climatic warming led the dates of sowing seed, seeding emergence, three-leaf, five-leaf, budding, anthesis, full bloom, cleft boll, boll-opening, boll-opening filling, and stop-growing become earlier by 24.42, 26.19, 24.75, 23.28, 22.62, 15.75, 14.58, 5.37, 2.85, 8.04, and 2.1602days during the period of 1981–2010, respectively. The growth period lengths from sowing seed to seeding emergence and from boll-opening to boll-opening filling were shortened by 1.76 and 5.1902days, respectively. The other growth period lengths were prolonged by 2–9.7102days. The whole growth period length was prolonged by 22.2602days. The stop-growing date was delayed by 2.49–3.4602days for every 102°C rise in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; however, other development dates emerged earlier by 2.17–4.7602days. Rising temperatures during the stage from seeding emergence to three-leaf reduced seed cotton yields. However, rising temperatures increased seed cotton yields in the two stages from anthesis to cleft boll and from boll-opening filling to the stop-growing. Increasing accumulated temperatures (AT) had different impacts on different development stages. During the vegetative phase, rising AT led to reduced seed cotton yields, but rising AT during reproductive stage increased seed cotton yields. In conclusion, climatic warming helpfully obtained more seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions in northwest China. Changing the sowing date is another way to enhance yields for climate change in the future.
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| [34] |
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| [35] |
Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1002-1 URL PMID: 25962358 [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3653.802days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.06519.402%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (613.3 to 6154.802kg02ha 611 02year 611 , except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.
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| [36] |
Response of maize phenology to climate warming in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012 [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0503-x URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Investigating the temporal changes in crop phenology is essential for understanding crop response and adaption to climate change. Using observed climatic and maize phenological data from 53 agricultural meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in maize phenology, temperatures and their correlations in major maize-growing areas (latitudes 39–48°N) of Northeast China. During the investigation period, seedling and heading dates advanced significantly at 22 out of the 53 stations; maturity dates delayed significantly at 23 stations, and the growing period (GP, from seedling to maturity), the vegetative growing period (VGP, from seedling to heading) and the reproductive growing period (RGP, from heading to maturity) increased significantly at 3002% of the investigated stations. GP length was positively correlated with T mean at 40 stations and significantly at 10 stations ( P 02<020.01). Both negative and positive correlations were found between VGP and T mean , while RGP length was significantly and positively correlated with T mean . The results indicated that agronomic factors contribute substantially to the shift in maize phenology and that most farmers had adopted longer season cultivars because the increase in temperature provided better conditions for maize germination, emergence and grain filling. The findings on the various changes to maize phenology can help climate change impact studies and will enable regional maize production to cope with ongoing climate change.
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| [37] |
Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.008 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change.
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| [38] |
Effects of warming and autonomous breeding on the phenological development and grain yield of double-rice systems in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.11.009 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Development of successful strategies to alleviate adverse impact of climate change on crop production relies on understanding of interactions between climate and crop physiology, and presents a new opportunity for sustainable agriculture. In this study we combine the analysis of 30 years of climate data and observed rice data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of climate change and changes in rice varieties on rice growth and grain yield from 1981 to 2009 at three sites (Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao) in double rice regions in China. The results revealed that while there was a warming trend in general, significant warming mainly occurred before jointing stage of early rice and after jointing of later rice. The adoption of new rice cultivars could only partly mitigate the negative impact of warming on rice growth duration and biomass growth. However, the changes of varieties increased the grain yield of both early and late rice through increased harvest index. The major variety changes involved reduced intrinsic earliness, extended grain filling period, and improved harvest index. In the face of future climate change, a planned breeding effort is needed to maintain or increase grain yield of the double rice system. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| [39] |
Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.008 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
react-text: 158 We tested the capability of CropSyst, a cropping system simulation model, to simulate cropping systems at two locations (Modena and Foggia) representative of the largest plain areas of Italy. Experimental data collected from rotation experiments during the period 1985–1991 were used to calibrate and validate the model. The data set available was not detailed enough to test most of the... /react-text react-text: 159 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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| [40] |
Reponses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1981 to 2009 in Henan Province, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1422-4 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data (1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a -1 . But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier (0.1 d·10a -1 <θ<1.7 d·10a -1 , θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period (VPL) (from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a -1 , while the length of generative period (GPL) (from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a -1 . The growing season length (GSL) (from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a -1 . Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days (GDD) ( p <0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.
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| [41] |
Negative effects of climate warming on maize yield are reversed by the changing of sowing date and cultivar selection in Northeast China [J]. |
| [42] |
Spring green-up date derived from GIMMS3g and SPOT-VGT NDVI of winter wheat cropland in the North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.05.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Satellite temporal resolution affects the fitting accuracy of vegetation growth curves. However, there are few studies that evaluate the impact of different satellite data (including temporal resolution and time series change) on spring green-up date (GUD) extraction. In this study, four GUD algorithms and two different temporal resolution satellite data (GIMMS3g during 1982-2013 and SPOT-VGT during 1999-2013) were used to investigate winter wheat GUD in the North China Plain. Four GUD algorithms included logistic-NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), logistic-cumNDVI (cumulative NDVI), polynomial-NDVI and polynomial-cumNDVI algorithms. All algorithms and data were first regrouped into eight controlled cases. At site scale, we evaluated the performance of each case using correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). We further compared spatial patterns and inter-annual trends of GUD inferred from different algorithms, and then analyzed the difference between GIMMS3g-based GUD and SPOT-VGT-based GUD. Our results showed that all satellite-based GUD were correlated with observations with r ranging from 0.32 to 0.57 (p < 0.01). SPOT-VGT-based GUD generally had better correlations with observed GUD than those of GIMMS3g. Spatially, SPOT-VGT-based GUD performed more reasonable spatial distributions. Inter-annual regional averaged satellite-based GUD presented overall advanced trends during 1982-2013 (0.3-2.0 days/decade) while delayed trends were observed during 1999-2013 (1.7-7.4 days/decade for GIMMS3g and 3.8-7.4 days/decade for SPOT-VGT). However, their significance levels were highly dependent on the data and algorithms used. Our findings suggest cautions on previous results of inter-annual variability of phenology from a single data/method.
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| [43] |
Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Wheat yields in Mexico, which represent an important measure of breeding and management progress in developing world wheat production, have increased by 25% over the past two decades. Using a combination of mechanistic and statistical models, we show that much of this increase can be attributed to climatic trends in Northwest states, in particular cooling of growing season nighttime temperatures. This finding suggests that short-term prospects for yield progress are smaller than suggested by recent yield increases, and that future gains will require an intensification of research and extension efforts aimed at raising wheat yields.
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| [44] |
Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.12.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Wheat is the second primary crop in China. Wheat production in China is an important component for national food security. The combination of high-resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) and WheatGrow model was used to assess the effects of climate change on wheat yields in the main wheat production regions of China. With the application of many techniques including the downscaling of meteorological data, rasterizing of sowing date, parameterization of region cultivar and vectorization of soil data, the spatial data in study area is divided into homogeneous grids with the resolution of 0.1 0.1 . The grid is taken as the basic simulation unit, and each grid has a complete set of input data (meteorological, soil, management and varieties). Regional productivities are simulated with WheatGrow for each grid cell under scenarios of climate-change. There is an advance in flowering date in future climate compare to 2000s, but with a more homogeneous pattern for the whole producing region. The changes in grain filling period are relatively stable. Under rain-fed conditions, wheat yield is reduced in the north regions of China in three future periods, while wheat yield increases in the south regions of China. Under full-irrigation conditions, irrigated wheat yields will increase in almost all regions of whole producing region. The spatial pattern of evapotranspiration change is quite similar to that of yield change under rain-fed and full-irrigation conditions. The correlation between wheat yield and evapotranspiration (ET) increases to 0.96 and 0.51 (p<0.01) under rain-fed and full-irrigation conditions, respectively. The irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) will decrease under three time slices in 2030s, 2050s and 2070s in western Shandong, southern Sichuan, as well as northern Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi, while IWUE will increase under scenarios of climate-change in other areas. The results revealed that the increase in effective irrigation in the future would help to increase the ET and further improve the wheat yield in the northern regions of China, and the limited water should be mad full use of in the regions with relatively high IWUE under scenarios of climate-change.
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| [45] |
Phenological responses of spring wheat and maize to changes in crop management and rising temperatures from 1992 to 2013 across the Loess Plateau [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.024 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The observed historical changes in crop phenological events are not only as a sensitive indicator to temperature variations but also the consequence of agronomic management such as adjustment of sowing date, cultivar selection and innovative farming practices. Clarifying how these factors influence crop phenology is of paramount importance in understanding/implementing adaptation strategies to future climate change. Changes in phenophases of dryland spring-sown wheat and maize were investigated using the observed phenological data from 1992 to 2013 across the Loess Plateau. Using a series of phenological growth models, we illustrated that once the varietal effect was fixed, rising temperature alone produced a general advancement on dates of heading and maturity, leading to a significant shortening of the vegetative phase (5.2daysdecade611in wheat and 1.1daysdecade611in maize), a shortened duration of reproductive phase (0.9 and 2.0daysdecade611respectively) and the length of whole growing season (6.1daysdecade611in wheat and 3.0days decade611in maize). In contrast, cultivar shifts prolonged the reproductive duration and the growing season length by 2.2 and 4.7daysdecade611for spring wheat, and 3.3 and 1.5daysdecade611for maize, respectively. The continuous update of cultivars during the past two decades has offset 63.5% of the shortening effect of growing season length caused by rising temperature for both crops. Our data indicate that adjusting sowing date and shifts to longer season cultivars are the critical adaptive strategies to cope with temperature increases in dryland spring-sown wheat and maize in the Loess Plateau or regions with similar environments.
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| [46] |
Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01374.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The phenology of 78 agricultural and horticultural events from a national survey in Germany spanning the years 1951–2004 is examined. The majority of events are significantly earlier now than 53 years ago, with a mean advance of 1.1–1.3 days per decade. The mean trends for 'true phases', such as emergence and flowering, of annual and perennial crops are not significantly different, although more trends (78% vs. 46%) are significant for annual crops. We attempt to remove the influence of technological advance or altered farming practices on phenology by detrending the respective time series by linear regression of date (day number) on year. Subsequently, we estimate responses to mean monthly and seasonal temperature by correlation and regression in two ways; with and without removing the year trend first. Nearly all (97%) correlation coefficients are negative, suggesting earlier events in warmer years. Between 82% and 94% of the coefficients with seasonal spring and summer temperatures are significant. The conservative estimate (detrended) of mean temperature response against mean March–May temperature (613.73 days °C 611 ) is significantly less than the full estimate (614.31 days °C 611 ), the 'true' size of phenological temperature response may lie in between. Perennial crops exhibited a significantly higher temperature response to mean spring temperature than the annual crops.
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| [47] |
Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986-2012) [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1363-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by...
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| [48] |
Modelled wheat phenology captures rising temperature trends: Shortened time to flowering and maturity in Australia and Argentina [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2006.04.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Phenological development is the most important attribute of crop adaptation and long-term changes in phenology provide strong evidence of the biological impact of warmer climates. This paper takes the documented increase in temperature during the last decades as a starting point, and quantifies the changes in wheat phenology in (a) 53 locations in eastern Australia between 1957 and 2000 using the APSIM model, and (b) 17 locations in the Pampas between 1971 and 2000, using CERES-Wheat. The expectation is shortened season length associated with warmer climate; the aim is to quantify the actual magnitude of phenological changes, the relative changes in the duration of pre- and post-flowering phases, and the interaction between changing temperature and sowing date. Modelled time from sowing to maturity was reduced up to 650.3 d y 611; time to flowering accounted for most of the variation in time to maturity. The rate of change in the duration of modelled wheat phenophases was more marked with early sowing. Owing to the cumulative effect of temperature on crop development assumed in the models, significant changes in rate of development were detected in some cases when change in temperature was statistically undetected. A minimum rate of mean temperature increase 650.02 °C y 611 was required for significant shortening of time to flowering and season length. In agreement with rates derived from field experiments, the rate of change in modelled time to flowering and maturity was ≈7 d °C 611. The duration of the post-flowering phase was largely unchanged. This was associated with lack of change in temperature, or where temperature increased, earlier flowering that shifted post-flowering development to relatively cooler conditions, thus neutralising the trend of increasing temperature.
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| [49] |
Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.033 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Our understanding of climate impacts and adaptations on crop growth and productivity can be accelerated by analyzing historical data over the past few decades. We used crop trial and climate data from 1981 to 2009 at 34 national agro-meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China to investigate the impacts of climate factors during different growth stages on the growth and yields of winter wheat, accounting for the adaptations such as shifts in sowing dates, cultivars, and agronomic management. Maximum ( T max ) and minimum temperature ( T min ) during the growth period of winter wheat increased significantly, by 0.4 and 0.602°C/decade, respectively, from 1981 to 2009, while solar radiation decreased significantly by 0.202MJ/m 2 /day and precipitation did not change significantly. The trends in climate shifted wheat phenology significantly at 21 stations and affected wheat yields significantly at five stations. The impacts of T max and T min differed in different growth stages of winter wheat. Across the stations, during 1981–2009, wheat yields increased on average by 14.5% with increasing trends in T min over the whole growth period, which reduced frost damage, however, decreased by 3.0% with the decreasing trends in solar radiation. Trends in T max and precipitation had comparatively smaller impacts on wheat yields. From 1981 to 2009, climate trends were associated with a02≤0230% (or ≤1.0% per year) wheat yield increase at 23 stations in eastern and southern parts of HHHP; however with a02≤0230% (or ≤1.0% per year) reduction at 11 other stations, mainly in western part of HHHP. We also found that wheat reproductive growth duration increased due to shifts in cultivars and flowering date, and the duration was significantly and positively correlated with wheat yield. This study highlights the different impacts of T max and T min in different growth stages of winter wheat, as well as the importance of management (e.g. shift of sowing date) and cultivars shift in adapting to climate change in the major wheat production region.
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| [50] |
Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.014 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A warming trend has become pronounced since the 1980s in China and is projected to accelerate in the future. Concerns about the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. The impact of future climate change on crop production has been widely predicted by using crop models and climate change scenarios, but little evidence of the observed impacts of climate change on crop production has been reported. In this study, we synthesized crop and climate data from representative stations across China during 1981鈥2000 to investigate whether there were significant trends in changes of climate variables in different regions, and whether theses changes have had significant impact on the development and production of the staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, and maize). Our results showed that significant warming trends were observed at most of the investigated stations, and the changes in temperature have shifted crop phenology and affected crop yields during the two decades. The observed climate change patterns, as well their impacts on crop phenology and yields are spatially diverse across China. Our study also highlights the need for further investigations of the combined impacts of temperature and CO 2 concentration on physiological processes and mechanisms governing crop growth and production.
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| [51] |
Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12684 URL PMID: 25044728 [本文引用: 4] 摘要
Abstract Maize phenology observations at 112 national agro-meteorological experiment stations across China spanning the years 1981 2009 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology, as well as the relations to temperature change and cultivar shift. The greater scope of the dataset allows us to estimate the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift on maize phenology more precisely. We found that maize sowing date advanced significantly at 26.0% of stations mainly for spring maize in northwestern, southwestern and northeastern China, although delayed significantly at 8.0% of stations mainly in northeastern China and the North China Plain (NCP). Maize maturity date delayed significantly at 36.6% of stations mainly in the northeastern China and the NCP. As a result, duration of maize whole growing period (GPw) was prolonged significantly at 41.1% of stations, although mean temperature ( T mean) during GPw increased at 72.3% of stations, significantly at 19.6% of stations, and T mean was negatively correlated with the duration of GPw at 92.9% of stations and significantly at 42.9% of stations. Once disentangling the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift with an approach based on accumulated thermal development unit, we found that increase in temperature advanced heading date and maturity date and reduced the duration of GPw at 81.3%, 82.1% and 83.9% of stations on average by 3.2, 6.0 and 3.5 days/decade, respectively. By contrast, cultivar shift delayed heading date and maturity date and prolonged the duration of GPw at 75.0%, 94.6% and 92.9% of stations on average by 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5 days/decade, respectively. Our results suggest that maize production is adapting to ongoing climate change by shift of sowing date and adoption of cultivars with longer growing period. The spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology presented here can further guide the development of adaptation options for maize production in near future.
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| [52] |
Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2012.07.005 URL [本文引用: 5] 摘要
Investigating the spatiotemporal changes of crop phenology in field is important to understand the processes and mechanisms of crop response and adaption to ongoing climate change. Here, the wheat phenology at more than 100 national agro-meteorological experiment stations across China spanning the years 1981 2007 was examined. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology and seasonal temperature, as well as the correlations between them were presented. During the investigation period, heading dates advanced significantly at 43 stations from the 108 investigated stations; maturity dates advanced significantly at 41 stations from the 109 investigated stations. Lengths of growing period (from sowing to maturity) and vegetative growing period (from sowing to heading) were significantly reduced at about 30% of the investigated stations, especially for spring wheat in northwestern China, despite thermal accumulation during the periods increased. In contrast, although significantly and negatively related to mean temperature, lengths of reproductive growing period (from heading to maturity) increased at 60% of the investigated stations, owing to increase in crop cultivars thermal requirements or/and decrease in mean temperature. The results showed that besides the complex influences of agronomic factors, climate change contributed substantially to the shift of wheat phenology. Mean day length during vegetative growing period had a decreasing trend at most of the investigated stations owing to delay of sowing date or/and advancement of heading date, which counterbalanced the roles of temperature in controlling the duration of vegetative growing period. In-depth analyses showed that thermal requirements from sowing to almost each development stage increased, however the thermal requirements to complete each single development stage changed differently, which tended to increase yield and adapt to ongoing climate change. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies, for breeding scientists to breed higher yielding cultivars, and for agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.
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| [53] |
Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12250 URL PMID: 23661287 [本文引用: 5] 摘要
Based on the crop trial data during 1981–2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981–2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981–2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by 610.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38–9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14–9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01–3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends.
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| [54] |
Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.013 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
The experiment observations at 120 agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 across China were used to accelerate understandings of the response of wheat growth and productivity to climate change in different climate zones, with panel regression models. We found climate during wheat growth period had changed significantly during 1981–2009, and the change had caused measurable impacts on wheat growth and yield in most of the zones. Wheat anthesis date and maturity date advanced significantly, and the lengths of growth period before anthesis and whole growth period were significantly shortened, however the length of reproductive growth period was significantly prolonged despite of the negative impacts of temperature increase. The increasing adoption of cultivars with longer reproductive growth period offset the negative impacts of climate change and increased yield. Changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in the past three decades jointly increased wheat yield in northern China by 0.9–12.9%, however reduced wheat yield in southern China by 1.2–10.2%, with a large spatial difference. Our studies better represented crop system dynamics using detailed phenological records, consequently better accounted for adaptations such as shifts in sowing date and crop cultivars photo-thermal traits when quantifying climate impacts on wheat yield. Our findings suggest the response of wheat growth and yield to climate change is underway in China. The changes in crop system dynamics and cultivars traits have to be sufficiently taken into account to improve the prediction of climate impacts and to plan adaptations for future.
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| [55] |
Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1350-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of...
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| [56] |
Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in Northwest China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.03.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding of the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of a crop species may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study determined the trend of climatic changes during the period of 1981 2004 in northwest China and assessed the impacts of climatic changes on phenological phases and productivity of winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and spring cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) at two locations. There was a clear trend of climate warming during the study period, leading to the earliness of pseudo stem elongation, booting, anthesis, and ripening stages of winter wheat by 13.2, 9.8, 11.0, and 10.8 d during the 24-year period, respectively. The growth period from seedling emergence to stem elongation shortened 16.1 d, but the growth period from anthesis to milk prolonged 8.2 d during the 24-year period. In cotton, the dates of seedling emergence, budding, anthesis, and boll-opening stages became earlier by, respectively, 10.9, 9.0, 13.9, and 16.4 d during the period of 1983 2004. However, the growth periods from five-leaf stage to budding, budding to anthesis, and anthesis to boll-opening stages were prolonged by 2.4, 12.0, and 9.0 d, respectively, for every 1 C of rise in minimum temperature during their respective growth period. Increasing minimum temperatures during the vegetative period positively affected winter wheat growth but increases in maximum temperatures during the reproductive period negatively affected kernel weight and grain yield. Consequently, the grain yield of winter wheat had decreased, but the yield of cotton had increased during the study period. The trend of climate warming appeared to be favourable for cotton production but unfavourable for winter wheat in northwest China.
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| [57] |
Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.12.020 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Understanding the confounding impacts of climatic and varietal changes on crop phenology is of importance to help make appropriate adaptation measures and target future directions for crop breeding. This paper investigated the changes in winter wheat phenology and analysed the impact of climatic, varietal and sowing date changes on crop phenology during the last three decades by combining field data with modeling. The APSIM crop model was used to quantify the changes in wheat phenology in terms of vernalization and photoperiod sensitivity as well as the changes in thermal time of pre- and post-flowering stage among wheat varieties at six sites in the North China Plain (NCP). The results showed that APSIM model could capture the phenological changes of winter wheat caused by interannual climatic change. There was a large spatial difference in the response pattern of wheat phenology to climatic and varietal changes across NCP. At most sites the increase in temperature shortened the growth duration of winter wheat mainly by shortening the growth period from sowing to jointing. The delayed sowing of winter wheat further shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at two northern sites (Tianjin and Huimin). Continuous adoption of new wheat varieties shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at Huimin, Xinxiang and Zhumadian, from jointing to flowering at Tianjin, but helped increase the length of growth period from jointing to flowering at Huimin, Tangyin and Xinxiang and post-flowering growth period at all the sites except for Tangyin. The findings of the study suggest that past cultivar changes in wheat in the NCP have been varied geographically.
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| [58] |
Understanding long-term (1982-2013) patterns and trends in winter wheat spring green-up date over the North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.01.008 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
Monitoring the spring green-up date (GUD) has grown in importance for crop management and food security. However, most satellite-based GUD models are associated with a high degree of uncertainty when applied to croplands. In this study, we introduced an improved GUD algorithm to extract GUD data for 32 years (1982–2013) for the winter wheat croplands on the North China Plain (NCP), using the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index form Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g NDVI). The spatial and temporal variations in GUD with the effects of the pre-season climate and soil moisture conditions on GUD were comprehensively investigated. Our results showed that a higher correlation coefficient (r=0.44, p<0.01) and lower root mean square error (22days) and bias (16days) were observed in GUD from the improved algorithm relative to GUD from the MCD12Q2 phenology product. In spatial terms, GUD increased from the southwest (less than day of year (DOY) 60) to the northeast (more than DOY 90) of the NCP, which corresponded to spatial reductions in temperature and precipitation. GUD advanced in most (78%) of the winter wheat area on the NCP, with significant advances in 37.8% of the area (p<0.05). GUD occurred later at high altitudes and in coastal areas than in inland areas. At the interannual scale, the average GUD advanced from DOY 76.9 in the 1980s (average 1982–1989) to DOY 73.2 in the 1990s (average 1991–1999), and to DOY 70.3 after 2000 (average 2000–2013), indicating an average advance of 1.8days/decade (r=0.35, p<0.05). Although GUD is mainly controlled by the pre-season temperature, our findings underline that the effect of the pre-season soil moisture on GUD should also be considered. The improved GUD algorithm and satellite-based long-term GUD data are helpful for improving the representation of GUD in terrestrial ecosystem models and enhancing crop management efficiency.
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| [59] |
Management outweighs climate change on affecting length of rice growing period for early rice and single rice in China during 1991-2012 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.10.016 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Whether crop phenology changes are caused by change in managements or by climate change belongs to the category of problems known as detection-attribution. Three type of rice (early, late and single rice) in China show an average increase in Length of Growing Period (LGP) during 1991–2012: 1.0±4.8day/decade (±standard deviation across sites) for early rice, 0.2±4.5day/decade for late rice and 2.0±6.0day/decade for single rice, based on observations from 141 long-term monitoring stations. Positive LGP trends are widespread, but only significant (P<0.05) at 25% of early rice, 22% of late rice and 38% of single rice sites. We developed a Bayes-based optimization algorithm, and optimized five parameters controlling phenological development in a process-based crop model (ORCHIDEE-crop) for discriminating effects of managements from those of climate change on rice LGP. The results from the optimized ORCHIDEE-crop model suggest that climate change has an effect on LGP trends dependent on rice types. Climate trends have shortened LGP of early rice (612.0±5.0day/decade), lengthened LGP of late rice (1.1±5.4day/decade) and have little impacts on LGP of single rice (610.4±5.4day/decade). ORCHIDEE-crop simulations further show that change in transplanting date caused widespread LGP change only for early rice sites, offsetting 65% of climate change induced LGP shortening. The primary drivers of LGP change are thus different among the three types of rice. Management are predominant driver of LGP change for early and single rice. This study shows that complex regional variations of LGP can be reproduced with an optimized crop model. We further suggest that better documenting observational error and management practices can help reduce large uncertainties existed in attribution of LGP change, and future rice crop modelling in global/regional scales should consider different types of rice and variable transplanting dates in order to better account impacts of management and climate change.
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| [60] |
Effects of climate change and cultivar on summer maize phenology [J]. |
| [61] |
Response of cotton phenology to climate change on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012 [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07056-4 URL PMID: 28747769 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
react-text: 408 The partitioning of light is very difficult to assess, especially in discontinuous or irregular canopies. The aim of the present study was to analyze the spatial distribution of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in a heterogeneous cotton canopy based on a geo-statistical sampling method. Field experiments were conducted in 2011 and 2012 in Anyang, Henan, China. Field plots were... /react-text react-text: 409 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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| [62] |
Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9531-6 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Weather and climate variability are predicted to impact food security by altering crop growth, phenology, and yield processes. Adaptation measures are critical for reducing future vulnerability of crop production to warming weather and climate variability. It is therefore vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to weather/climate variability. This study analyzes the trends in the dates of winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) phenology in relation to average temperature of different growth stage and the adaptation of the crop to weather/climate variability in China. The results suggest that the phenological phases of winter wheat have specific regional patterns in China. There are also significant shifts in the dates of winter wheat phenology and the duration of the growth stages in the investigated 30-year period of 1980 2009. While the date of sowing winter wheat delays, the dates of post-winter phenological phases (e.g., heading and maturity dates) advances in most areas of China. Detailed analysis shows that the changes in the phenological phases of winter wheat are strongly related to temperature trends. Temporal trends in phenological phases of winter wheat are similar in characteristics to corresponding trends in temperature. Although warming weather and climate variability is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology, temperature is lower than before in most of the investigated stations during the period from heading to maturity ainly the grain-filling stage. This is mainly due to the early heading and maturity dates, which in turn not only prolong growth stages but also enhance productivity of winter wheat. This could be a vital adaptation strategy of winter wheat to warming weather with beneficial effects in terms of productivity.
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| [63] |
Impact of warming climate and cultivar change on maize phenology in the last three decades in North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1450-x URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
As climate change could significantly influence crop phenology and subsequent crop yield, adaptation is a critical mitigation process of the vulnerability of crop growth and production to climate change. Thus, to ensure crop production and food security, there is the need for research on the natural (shifts in crop growth periods) and artificial (shifts in crop cultivars) modes of crop adaptation to climate change. In this study, field observations in 18 stations in North China Plain (NCP) are used in combination with Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Maize model to analyze the trends in summer maize phenology in relation to climate change and cultivar shift in 1981–2008. Apparent warming in most of the investigated stations causes early flowering and maturity and consequently shortens reproductive growth stage. However, APSIM-Maize model run for four representative stations suggests that cultivar shift delays maturity and thereby prolongs reproductive growth (flowering to maturity) stage by 2.4613.702day per decade (d 10a 611 ). The study suggests a gradual adaptation of maize production process to ongoing climate change in NCP via shifts in high thermal cultivars and phenological processes. It is concluded that cultivation of maize cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production and food security in the NCP study area and beyond.
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| [64] |
Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009 [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8 URL PMID: 22562530 摘要
Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981-2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), emergence (BBCH 10) and dormancy (start of dormancy) are delayed on the average by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.5 days/decade, respectively. On the contrary, the dates of greenup (end of dormancy), anthesis (BBCH 61) and maturity (BBCH 89) occur early on the average by 1.1, 2.7 and 1.4 days/decade, respectively. In most of the investigated stations, GP2 (dormancy to greenup), GP3 (greenup to anthesis) and GP0 (entire period from emergence to maturity) of winter wheat shortened during the period 1981-2009. Due, however, to early anthesis, grain-filling stage occurs at lower temperatures than before. This, along with shifts in cultivars, slightly prolongs GP4 (anthesis to maturity). Comparison of field-observed CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model-simulated dates of anthesis and maturity suggests that climate warming is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology in the NCP. The findings of this study further suggest that climate change impact studies should be strengthened to adequately account for the complex responses and adaptations of field crops to this global phenomenon.
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| [65] |
Combined impact of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-5108-0 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world.This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages.It also analyzed the impacts of climate change,cultivar shift,and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC).The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years.Specifically,the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)-1.Moreover,while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations,the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations.As a result,the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at mnost stations.The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC.Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP,RGP,and WGP,the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements,to some extent,mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change.Furthermore,shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat.Generally,an advanced sowing date was abte to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e.,VGP,RGP,and WGP) of spring wheat.As a result,the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged.Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate,with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.
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| [66] |
Impact of recent climatic change on the yield of winter wheat at low and high altitudes in semi-arid northwestern China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.02.007 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This study analyses data on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) development and climate from Tongwei County (35 degrees 13'N, 105 degrees 14'E), Gansu, in the semiarid northwest of China during 1981-2005. Two study sites were chosen: one at Tongwei Meteorological Station, situated at 1798 m above sea level at the foot of LuLu Mountain, and the second on the summit of LuLu Mountain at an altitude of 2351 m. The objective was to investigate whether there were significant trends in the change of climate variables, and whether these changes have significantly affected the development and production of winter wheat at different altitudes above sea level. The results showed that, with changes in temperature and precipitation, there was a significant change in the phenology of winter wheat that crop yields increased at both sites from 1981 to 2005, and that the increase in yields was higher at the high-altitude site. During 1981-1998 the yields at the high-altitude site were lower than at the low altitude site, whereas after 1998 the yields at the high-altitude site were higher than at the low altitude site. In the face of climate change, winter wheat production in this region during 1981-2005 was higher at the higher altitude site than at the lower altitude site. It is expected that, by 2030, the interaction of warming temperature and changed rainfall will have led to a further increase of 3.1% in wheat yields at a low altitude and of 4.0% at a high altitude in the semiarid northwest of China. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| [67] |
Rice reproductive growth duration increased despite of negative impacts of climate warming across China during 1981-2009 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2013.12.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Changes in rice phenology during 1981-2009 were investigated using observed phenological data from hundreds of agro-meteorological stations across China. Spatiotemporal changes of rice phenology across China, as well as the relations to temperature, day length and cultivars shifts were analyzed and presented. We found that major rice phenological dates generally advanced while rice growing period changed diversely for different rice cultivation systems in different agro-ecological zones. Length of vegetative growth period (VGP) increased at 59 (67.0%) stations for single-rice, however, decreased at 36 (54.5%) and 35 (51.5%) stations for early-rice, and late-rice, respectively. Length of reproductive growth period (RGP) increased at 71(70.3%) and 49 (55.7%) stations for single-rice and early-rice, respectively, however, decreased at 46 (54.8%) stations for late-rice. The changes were ascribed to the combined effects of changes in temperature, photoperiod and cultivar thermal characteristics. Increase in temperature had negative impacts on the lengths of VGP and RGP. Day length slightly counterbalanced the roles of temperature in affecting the duration of VGP. Furthermore, we found that during 1981-2009 cultivars with longer growth duration of VGP were adopted for single-rice, but cultivars with shorter growth duration of VGP were adopted for early-rice and late-rice. Cultivars with longer growth durations of RGP were adopted for single-rice and early-rice, as well as late-rice at the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. However, in the southwestern China and southern China, cultivars with shorter or almost same growth duration of RGP were adopted for late rice. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| [68] |
Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12057 URL PMID: 23504793 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
An extensive dataset on rice phenology in China, including 202 series broadly covering the past three decades (1980s–2000s), was compiled. From these data, we estimated the responses of growth duration length to temperature using a regression model based on the data with and without detrending. Regression coefficients derived from the detrended data reflect only the temperature effect, whereas those derived from data without detrending represent a combined effect of temperature and confounding cultivar shifts. Results indicate that the regression coefficients calculated from the data with and without detrending show an average shortening of the growth duration of 4.1–4.4 days for each additional increase in temperature over the full growth cycle. Using the detrended data, 95.0% of the data series exhibited a negative correlation between the growth duration length and temperature; this correlation was significant in 61.9% of all of the data series. We then compared the difference between the two regression coefficients calculated from data with and without detrending and found a significantly greater temperature sensitivity using the data without detrending (612.9 days °C611) than that derived from the detrended data (612.0 days °C611) in the period of emergence to heading for the late rice, producing a negative difference in temperature sensitivity (610.9 days °C611). This implies that short-duration cultivars were planted with increase in temperature and exacerbated the undesired phenological change. In contrast, positive differences were detected for the single (0.6 days °C611) and early rice (0.5 days °C611) over the full growth cycle, which might indicate that long-duration cultivars were favoured with climate warming, but these differences were insignificant. In summary, our results suggest that a major, temperature induced change in the rice growth duration is underway in China and that using a short-duration cultivar has been accelerating the process for late rice.
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