中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.006

地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 224-235.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.006

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

赵彦茜¹(), 肖登攀^1,^*(), 柏会子¹, 陶福禄²

1. 河北省科学院地理科学研究所河北省地理信息开发应用工程技术研究中心,石家庄 050011
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101

收稿日期:2018-05-18 修回日期:2018-12-13 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
通讯作者: 肖登攀
作者简介:
第一作者简介：赵彦茜(1992— ),男,河北南和人,研究实习员,主要从事作物模型应用研究。E-mail: 18233181223@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41401104);河北省自然科学基金项目(D2015302017);河北省科学院高层次人才培养与资助项目(2018G03)

Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China

Yanxi ZHAO¹(), Dengpan XIAO^1,^*(), Huizi BAI¹, Fulu TAO²

1. Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2018-05-18 Revised:2018-12-13 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28
Contact: Dengpan XIAO
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41401104;Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province, No. D2015302017;High-level Talent Training and Support Project of Hebei Academy of Sciences, No. 2018G03.

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。

关键词: 气候变化, 作物物候, 生育期, 驱动因子, 作物模型

Abstract:

Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectly, which has important significance for detecting climate change. Research on crop phenology is crucial for preventing agricultural meteorological disasters, the progress of agricultural production management, and the safety of agricultural production. With the continuous increase of global surface temperature, research on crop phenology has attracted increasingly more attention of scientists. Based on the key research methods of crop phenology, this article summarizes the studies on the change of crop growth period and the main driving factors of change of major crops, including wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and soybean, in recent decades in China. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) Statistical analysis methods have been most widely used and several other methods were combined with statistical analysis methods in application. Model simulation method has also been widely used in phenological research, and such method is easy to operate. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops. 2) Overall, the whole growth period of wheat is mainly shortened, and the main trend of whole growth period of maize and rice is prolonged. 3) The driving factors of main crop phenological change is climate change and agricultural management. Climate change is the dominant driving factor, which decides crop phenological change, and adjusting agricultural management measures can partly offset the negative impact of climate change on crop growth period. The study of response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for agricultural production to adapt to climate change.

Key words: climate change, crop phenology, growth period, driving factor, crop model

赵彦茜, 肖登攀, 柏会子, 陶福禄. 中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 224-235.

Yanxi ZHAO, Dengpan XIAO, Huizi BAI, Fulu TAO. Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 224-235.

图/表 3

表1

中国小麦物候变化特征及驱动因子"

分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国春小麦/冬小麦种植区	1981—2009年,40%站点春/冬小麦HD和MD显著提前,30%站点WGP和VGP显著缩短,60%站点RGP显著延长	平均气温升高导致生育期提前,WGP和VGP缩短,品种变化延长RGP,日照长度缩短延长VGP	Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 2014
	1980—2009年,冬小麦HD提前12.4 d/10 a,MD提前天数少于HD,VGP缩短,RGP延长6 d/10 a,WGP缩短11.3 d/10 a	气候变暖导致生育期变化	Xiao et al, 2015
	1981—2010年,春/冬小麦平均SD和EMD推迟,平均AD和MD提前,VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致春/冬小麦VGP和WGP缩短,RGP延长;品种变化导致小麦变化与观测结果趋势基本一致	Liu et al, 2018
北部地区	2001—2009年,冬小麦EMD和MD推迟,HD提前,WGP与VGP缩短,RGP延长	品种保持不变,气候变暖为主要影响因子	高辉明等, 2013
北部地区	1980—2009年,春小麦AD和MD分别提前1.8 d/10 a、1.7 d/10 a,VGP和WGP分别缩短2.1 d/10 a和1.9 d/10 a,RGP延长0.2 d/10 a	气候变暖导致生育期提前,生长阶段缩短,品种更新和推迟播种期则一定程度上抵消了气候变暖的影响	Xiao, Tao et al, 2016
西北半干旱区	1981—2005年,冬小麦SD、ELD、AD、MD分别推迟0.3~0.4 d/a、0~0.2 d/a、0.3 d/a、0.2~0.4 d/a,WGP缩短0.6~1.3 d/a	气温升高,降水减少导致生育期缩短	Xiao et al, 2008
西北半干旱区	1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟,AD、MD提前;WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致生育期变化,播种期和品种变化减小了气候变暖对生育期的影响	He et al, 2015
华北地区	1981—2009年,冬小麦EMD推迟,AD和MD提前,WGP缩短,AD至MD延长	气候变暖为主导因子,品种、播种期和农业管理措施变化等因素也有一定影响	Tao et al, 2017
	1982-2000年,冬小麦EMD和HAD均提前,HAD提前幅度更大,EMD—HAD缩短	气候变暖为主要影响因子	Fang et al, 2005
	1980-2009年,冬小麦SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,其他生育阶段变化在站点间并不统一显著;	气温升高导致SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,晚播导致SD至ELD缩短,品种变化对各站点影响不一	Wang et al, 2013
	1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟, AD、MD提前,AD至MD延长,WGP缩短	气候变暖促使生育期变化,品种变化导致AD至MD略微延长	Tao et al, 2013
	1981—2005年,冬小麦WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖缩短WGP、VGP,延长RGP,品种变化延长WGP和VGP,RGP在多数站点延长	Li et al, 2016
	1982—2013年,冬小麦78%的区域GUD提前,平均提前1.8 d/10 a	气候变化为物候变化主因,但土壤水分因素不能忽略,对返青期影响较大	Wang S et al, 2017

表1

表2

表3

中国水稻物候变化特征及驱动因子"

分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国水稻种植区	1981—2009年,单季稻WGP在信阳、镇江延长显著,在武昌略有延长,在汉源变化较小	气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化延长了生育期,品种变化影响略大于气候变化影响	Liu et al, 2012
	1981—2009年,除衡阳晚熟稻WGP延长外,南昌、衡阳和高要的早熟稻和晚熟稻的WGP均缩短	气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化则延长了生育期,但气候变暖对生育期影响要大于品种变化的影响	Liu L et al, 2013
	1981—2006年,单季稻和双季稻平均情况下,VGP缩短3.3 d/℃,RGP缩短1.2 d/℃,WGP缩短4.1 d/℃	气候变暖导致生育期缩短;单季稻和早熟稻品种变化影响不明显,晚熟稻VGP缩短0.9 d/℃,表明晚熟稻品种变化为短生育期品种	Zhang et al, 2013
	1981—2009年,单季稻和双季稻的TPD、HD、MD提前,VGP、RGP、WGP变化程度相同	气温升高导致VGP和RGP缩短;品种变化使得单季稻VGP延长,双季稻VGP缩短,单季稻和早熟稻RGP延长	Zhang et al, 2014
	1981—2012年,单季稻和双季稻的VGP变化幅度大于RGP变化幅度	气温升高对于单季稻、早熟稻以及晚熟稻的生育期变化的平均贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种变化则为58%、44%、-37%	Hu et al, 2017
	1991—2012年,早熟稻WGP平均延长(1.0±4.8) d/10 a,晚熟稻WGP平均延长(0.2±4.5) d/10 a,单季稻WGP平均延长(2.0±6.0) d/10 a	气候变暖导致早熟稻生育期缩短,晚熟稻延长;移栽期的改变等农业管理措施是早熟稻和单季稻生育期变化的主导因素	Wang X et al, 2017
	1981—2009年,单季稻HD、MD推迟,但单季稻、早熟稻和晚熟稻的平均TPD、HD、MD均提前;单季稻的VGP、RGP、WGP均延长,长江中下游平原双季稻则为VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致80%站点水稻生育期缩短,但品种变化延长了单季稻和长江中下游平原早熟稻的RGP,而晚熟稻WGP由于气候变化和品种变化共同作用而缩短	Tao et al, 2013
东北地区	1989—2009年,单季稻SD提前,MD推迟,VGP、RGP与WGP显著延长	气候变暖和新育成品种是1989—2009年影响东北地区水稻生育期延长的主要因素	侯雯嘉等, 2015
华北地区	1981—2007年,单季稻SD和TPD显著提前,SD至TPD逐渐缩短,TPD至HD和HD至MD延长,其中TPD至HD显著延长,气候倾向率达4.4 d/10 a	信阳地区水稻生育期的变化主要受4—5月温度变化的影响	薛昌颖等, 2010

表3

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分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国玉米种植区	1981—2009年,西北、东北、西南的春玉米SD显著提前,58.9%站点HD提前;东北和华北地区玉米MD显著延迟;41.1%站点玉米WGP显著延长	气温升高导致大约80%站点HD和MD提前,WGP缩短,品种变化则使得超过90%站点HD和MD推迟,WGP延长;除此之外,推迟播期也可以延长WGP	Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014
东北地区	1981—2007年,玉米SD提前,MD推迟4~21 d,RGP延长,WGP延长2~38 d	气候变暖导致VGP、RGP和WGP缩短,品种变化则导致VGP、RGP和WGP延长,早播导致RGP缩短,VGP延长,但不显著	Liu Z et al, 2013
东北地区	1990—2012年,春玉米VGP在43.4%站点缩短,在56.6%站点延长;RGP在22.6%站点缩短,77.4%站点延长;WGP在33.9%站点显著延长	气候、品种、农业管理措施等因子综合影响导致区域生育期变化	Li et al, 2014
西北地区	1980—2010年,春玉米平均VGP、RGP和WGP延长	气候变暖缩短WGP,晚熟品种的使用则延长了WGP	Bu et al, 2015
华北地区	1981—2010年,夏玉米SD至ELD和ELD至AD在多数站点呈缩短趋势,RGP和WGP在92.6%站点呈延长趋势	平均温度与WGP呈负相关,降水量则呈正相关;气候变暖缩短玉米WGP,而品种变化则延长了玉米VGP、RGP和WGP	Wang et al, 2016
	1981—2008年,夏玉米MD推迟,VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖使得AD和MD提前,RGP缩短,品种变化则导致MD推迟、RGP延长2.4 d/10 a~3.7 d/10 a	Xiao, Qi et al, 2016
	1981—2009年,夏玉米SD推迟,EMD、ELD、TAD、AD和MD提前,VGP缩短0.9 d/10 a,RGP延长1.7 d/10 a,WGP延长0.4 d/10 a	生育期长度与平均温度呈负相关,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日呈正相关	Liu Y J et al, 2017

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China

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