金璐璐
, 贺灿飞, 周沂
JIN Lulu, HE Canfei, ZHOU Yi
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版权声明: 2017 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
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作者简介:
作者简介:金璐璐(1992-),女,浙江温州人,硕士研究生,研究方向为经济地理,E-mail: jinlulu1006@163.com。
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摘要
在经济转型新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,创造新的产业发展路径是区域经济增长的突破口。路径依赖和路径突破是区域创造产业发展路径的两种途径,已有演化经济地理学研究证实区域生产结构的演化依赖地区已有生产能力,是一种路径依赖的结果,而谁是突破区域现有生产能力实现新路径创造的开拓者却尚未得知。本文基于1999-2012年中国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业数据,沿用Hidalgo等人对生产能力的定义,研究中国产业演化过程中路径突破的可能,结果发现：地区新产业的进入以及已有产业的退出有助于地区突破对原有生产结构的依赖,是区域产业发展新路径的创造者。政府补贴一方面有利于地区现有生产能力的提升,增强地区路径依赖趋势;另一方面可为地区带来新的路径,实现路径突破并为区域创造新的发展机会。此外,政府补贴影响产业演化路径选择的效用受地方财政能力限制,并在空间上存在显著差异。
关键词：
Abstract
In evolutionary economics, the notion of path creation has attracted much attention in recent years. Previous research has expounded the possibility of path dependence and path creation in the process of regional industrial evolution, but it remains unknown that who changes the existing production capacity and accomplishes path creation. This article focuses on regional production capacity, and applies the indicator of density defined by Hidalgo. Based on the data of 424 four-digit industry of 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2012, this article discusses the path creation of China's industrial evolution. It is found that the entry and exit of an industry would break the original production structure of a region and become the creator of a new path. Governmental subsidies, on the one hand, can promote the development of a region's existing production capacity to enhance the regional's path dependence trend, but also can influence industry dynamics and accelerate the process of path creation. The selection of evolutionary path has significant regional differences. This study will help deepen the understanding of the change of China's industrial structure and its regional differentiation, and provides new evidence from developing countries for the development of evolutionary economic geography.
Keywords：
在经济转型的新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,实现产业结构演化路径的突破是区域经济发展的重要课题(Scott et al, 1987; Martin et al, 2006, 2010)。对于依赖已有资源程度较深的区域,开拓新的发展路径,实现多样化发展的生产条件积累不足,容易陷入路径锁定的困境(Maskell et al, 1999),甚至可能形成“低端道路”的路径依赖。
内生增长理论(Romer, 1994)、集聚经济(Marshall, 1920)以及演化经济地理学(Nelson et al, 1982)都曾指出,一个地区的经济发展与地方利用、吸收和创造知识的生产能力直接相关,即地方生产能力是区域产业发展的重要影响因素。演化经济地理学强调知识溢出时的认知距离对区域经济增长的重要性,并提出技术关联(technological relatedness)的概念来量化产业之间的“认知邻近性”(Hidalgo et al, 2007; Boschma et al, 2015, 2016)。Hidalgo等以两种产品同时被同一国家出口的条件概率来反映产品间技术关联程度,并在此基础上构建地方“产品空间”。产品空间具有明显的“核心—边缘”结构,处在产品空间的不同位置意味着区域扩展新产品的能力不同。在现实中,发达国家多专业化于产品空间中的核心产品,更易通过紧密的产业联系发展距离较近的产品,从而实现产业结构转型。发展中国家由于缺乏产品生产所具备的各项能力,专业化于边缘产品,产品之间的距离较远,很难进行新产品的扩展。因此,在演化经济地理基于区域依赖生产能力的发展路径框架下,发展中国家和地区的发展前景不容乐观,实现路径突破式的发展尤为不易。
在现有演化经济地理研究中,如何打破基于地方生产能力的路径依赖模式,创造新路径的问题日益受到关注,产业演化中的路径创造有两种途径,第一种是基于现有产业技术关联的新产业扩展,这种路径创造过程是路径依赖式的(刘志高等, 2011)。大量研究已证实区域产业的进入与退出取决于地方生产能力(Klepper et al, 2000; Buenstorf et al, 2010; Boschma et al, 2015)。这种能力可以反映地区已有产业的积累和资源禀赋,如企业家精神的延续、存在技术关联企业的多元化发展、劳动力流动和社会网络关系等(Boschma, 2015)。Neffke等(2011)、Boschma等(2012)、贺灿飞等(2016)分别通过对瑞典、西班牙和中国的分析,验证了技术关联对地区产业结构演化的影响,证明了路径依赖的存在。
第二种路径创造主要是以技术革新替代已有的生产方式和技术,是一种路径突破。认知距离的概念可很好地解释这一过程。产业之间的认知距离太近,即产业之间关联度过高,容易造成区域产业发展知识与技术的“锁定”,不利于技术与资源有效整合,进而向新的技术、产业发展演进。此时,适当的利用外部手段来打破“锁定”局面,可实现路径突破,如构建外部联系或利用社会制度环境下的外部干预为产业演化突破式发展提供新的可能(Boschma et al, 2012; He et al, in press)。外部联系可以为地区带来先进的技术、人力资本和管理经验,从而促进地区产业结构沿着新的方向发展(Cheung et al, 2004)。相关的地方产业政策可引导区域产业发展脱离原有生产能力,打破产业演化的路径依赖(Young, 2000; Poncet, 2005; 罗芊等, 2016)。Jankowska等(2012)通过韩国、巴西和墨西哥的案例研究,证明产业发展政策能够促使地区生产结构转变。Abdon等(2011)发现撒哈拉以南非洲地区的产业结构集中于产品空间的“边缘区”,需要引入有关政策来打破路径依赖以实现地区经济增长与结构转型。
中国的经济转型为发展中国家实现路径突破提供了重要的案例证据。在中国财政分权、政治集权的制度背景下,各地方政府围绕经济增长开展激烈的竞争,具有强烈的干预产业演化的动机(Qian et al, 1998)。其中,政府补贴是各地为竞争资源,促进产业升级和多样化发展的重要手段(宋凌云等, 2013)。政府补贴主要可通过以下几个方面影响产业结构变动：一是政府以补贴的方式扶持地区优势产业,增强区域产业发展过程中路径依赖的趋势。在“竞争锦标赛”中,地方政府为增加财税收入、提升政绩,有强烈的动机将资源导向能迅速提升本地经济总量、就业和税收的传统优势产业,以增强本地产业发展基础(倪家铸等, 1993)。二是补贴可以改善区域硬件和软件环境条件。降低新产业进入时探索的成本和门槛,有利于地区产业结构新路径的创造。三是政府补贴可为企业创新提供正外部性补偿,减少企业创新过程可能存在的成本风险,促进地区引入新的技术、人力资本和管理经验,有利于新产业的发展,实现新路径创造。上述研究证明政府补贴有助于地区产业结构演化过程中路径突破的发生,从而成为区域经济增长的新引擎。
产业演化过程中的以下问题,需要认真研究：①谁才是路径创造者?②政府干预在其中是增强了区域对原有路径依赖还是引导突破现有生产能力的限制?③区域演化路径的选择是否存在显著的空间差异和政府能力差异?现阶段,已有研究大多从区域研发投入、知识溢出、外部链接等方面讨论影响产业发展路径创造的因素,以产业关联密度刻画的区域生产能力作为自变量衡量产业演化对现有路径的依赖程度,探讨各类因素对这种依赖的削弱和增强作用。该类研究可以回答区域产业演化过程中,路径依赖和路径突破选择的可能性,但尚未回答谁才是区域产业演化路径的开拓者,以及谁具备更强的突破能力;同时近年来涌现的大量关于产业演化动力机制的研究大多集中在欧美发达国家,探讨集聚外部性对企业、产业或区域发展的作用,忽视了发展中国家或转型经济体中的政府发挥的作用。因此本文基于1999-2012年中国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业数据,以区域生产能力为研究对象,试图回答以上问题,重点探讨中国产业演化过程中路径突破的可能。研究发现,政府干预也是影响产业路径演化的重要力量。这丰富了既有理论聚焦内生技术革新促进产业演化的认知,证实了在政府宏观调控和市场力量并重的国家,政府政策也是决定产业结构和经济增长的重要力量,为演化经济地理学的演化路径研究补充来自发展中国家的新证据。同时也将有助于加深对中国产业结构演化及其区域差异的认识,更好地帮助中国地方政府利用政府补贴的手段推动区域经济增长和产业发展,对未来的政策调整与推进,具有一定的实践意义。
本文的研究数据来自国家统计局中国工业企业数据库(ASIF),该数据库较为完整地收录了1998-2013年的企业数据,覆盖所有工业产业中企业的基本结构和运营情况,包括行业代码、创立年份、区位、资本结构、从业人数、出口额、营业收入、资产价值等关键信息。本文基于1999-2012年的企业数据,将其汇总到城市—产业(四位数产业)层面,对我国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业的产业动态开展描述和实证分析。由于1999-2008年数据较为完整,便于对数据进行连续观察;2008年以后企业注册信息数据结构发生变动较大,如2011年规模以上工业企业门槛值更改为主营业务收入为2000万元以上,且部分行业和城市代码发生变更,同时数据缺失较为严重(2011年缺失所有从业人员的信息,2013年有大量城市的企业数据缺失),导致研究时段受限。故本文主要以1999-2008年的数据为观测对象,剔除2009-2012年主营业务收入在2000万以下的工业企业,并进行行业和城市代码的调整。由于前后两期的数据结构不一致,采取分阶段回归模型。
产业的进入与退出是地区产业发展新路径的载体(Martin et al, 2006),本文用产业的进入与退出刻画产业动态,将城市c中t1期未存在但t2期出现的产业定义为新进入产业;t1期存在但t2期不再出现的产业定义为退出产业。因变量采用Hidalgo等(2007)构建的方法用产业关联密度(Density)来刻画地方已有生产能力。Hidalgo等(2007)假设如果两个产业经常在一个地区同时表现出显性比较优势(RCA),则这两个产业可看作是相互关联的。这种产业间关系的代理变量可以表达为：
式中：
如果一个产业与本地现有的优势产业关联越密切,则该地区拥有生产该产业的能力越强。产业关联密度的计算方法如下：
式中：
为探究中国区域生产能力的空间演化特征,本文分区域绘制2000、2004和2008年的产业关联密度(Density)的核密度分布图。随着经济全球化和区域一体化不断推进,资本、信息等要素在地理空间上的流动日益频繁(侯纯光等, 2016),中国区域生产能力的时空格局演变显著。图1显示研究期间各区域的地方生产能力均发生了明显提升并且存在显著的区域差异。其中,东部各城市产业关联密度较均匀地分布于高关联密度区,西部则高度集中于低关联密度区,中部介于两者之间。并且,随着时间的迁移,东部与中部地区曲线峰值右移较为明显,产业生产能力提升显著。各地区产业生产能力显著提升可能是因为随着中国进入新一轮经济快速增长时期,投资拉动的经济增长和工业化进程加快导致产业间联系愈发紧密。
图1 2000-2008年中国东中西部地区产业关联密度的核密度分布图
Fig.1 Distribution of kernel density in Eastern, Central, and Western China, 2000-2008
理顺产业动态与区域产业生产能力的关系是理解产业结构演化的重要突破口。本文基于产业之间的认知距离——技术关联,借助Cytoscape 3.3.0,绘制2004-2008年中国城市产业空间(图2)。根据城市区位、人口和政府财政能力等因素的差异,分别选取产业基础好、政府财政能力强的北京市和市场环境条件较好、政府财政能力中等的南昌市以及经济发展条件和政府财政能力较弱的自贡市作为三类典型城市代表进行初步研究。上述3个城市的产业空间均呈现明显的核心-边缘结构(贺灿飞等, 2016)。其中,不同颜色的节点代表不同产业,三角形符号表示新进入产业或退出产业。结果显示,2004-2008年间北京市和南昌市产业进入退出相对均比较活跃,且大多进入各自产业空间中以纺织服装、电子制造、医药制造、装备制造等为主的“核心”区域,整体呈现“路径依赖”态势;自贡市的进入产业则明显多于退出产业,且进入产业在空间上更为分散,退出产业更邻近产业空间的核心区,整体产业演化路径更趋于“路径突破”式发展。总体而言,在2004-2008年间,中国城市产业结构调整成绩显著,不同城市产业演化的路径具有明显差异。
图2 2004-2008年中国典型城市的产业空间
Fig.2 Industry space in China's typical cities, 2004-2008
为讨论政府补贴在产业演化过程中的作用,进一步探究中国城市受补贴产业与未受补贴产业的产业关联密度的分布差异(图3)。与未受补贴的产业相比,受补贴产业的概率密度图峰值相对更靠右,产业关联度更高。图4为城市关联产业密度与政府补贴率的关系。城市平均产业关联度是取所有四位数产业的产业关联密度平均值,政府补贴率为城市中受补贴产业占所有产业的比重。图中显示两者呈较为显著的正相关,政府倾向补贴给与地方产业结构关联更为密切的产业,说明政府补贴将有可能强化区域的“路径依赖”。另外图中不同的颜色代表不同的区域（东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、山东、辽宁、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东、广西和海南;中部地区包括黑龙江、吉林、陕西、内蒙古、河南、湖北、湖南、安徽、江西;西部地区包括重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、西藏、宁夏、甘肃、青海和新疆。）,线性拟合结果显示东部和西部地区曲线拟合效果较好,拟合优度分别为0.160及0.017,曲线倾斜明显,城市的产业补贴率与城市关联产业密度均呈现出较为明显的正相关关系,而代表中部地区的拟合曲线效果不明显,拟合优度为0.001,中部地区政府补贴与城市产业关联密度的相关关系较弱。
图3 补贴与非补贴产业的产业关联度概率密度图
Fig.3 Distribution of probability density of subsidized industries and unsubsidized industries
图4 东、中、西部地区城市产业补贴率与城市平均关联产业密度
Fig.4 Relationship between average density and the rate of subsidized industry of cities in Eastern, Central, and Western China
Schumpeter (1939)指出区域产业演化是一个“创造性破坏”的过程,产业的进入和退出将会打破地区原有的生产结构从而实现新路径的创造。产业的进入将为地区带来新的资源和技术,产业的退出将会带离本地已有的知识网络。两者均会驱动地区突破已有生产能力的束缚,实现新路径的创造。图5a展示了城市新产业进入率与平均产业关联密度的关系。两者显著的负相关表明新产业进入率高的城市,平均产业关联密度偏低,换言之,新产业的进入可能降低城市的平均关联产业密度。因此有理由推断,新进入的产业可能是推动当地产业打破“路径依赖”的重要力量。同产业进入的规律一致,产业退出率与地区平均产业关联密度呈负相关(图5b)。预示着产业退出率高的城市,产业关联密度偏低,退出的产业可能是原本与当地产业关联较高的产业。说明原有产业的退出也可能成为推动当地产业实现路径突破的助力。城市产业进入退出造成产业关联密度降低,或许恰好体现了中国城市产业结构的转型、重构与升级的过程,一些资本密集型和技术密集型产业逐渐进入中心城市,造成原有的劳动密集型产业和低附加值产业的退出和转移。新兴产业通常与城市原有产业结构关联较弱,更强的产业竞争力和更大的扶持力度,在很大程度上也加速了市场对原有传统产业的挤出作用。
图5 城市平均产业关联密度与城市产业进入率 (a)和城市产业退出率 (b)
Fig.5 (left) and 5b (right) Relationship between average density in a city and the rate of new (exit) industry of the city
为识别区域产业演化过程中可能的路径创造者以及政府干预的作用,构建模型进行验证。模型将重点关注政府补贴和产业动态变量,同时还将进一步考察政府补贴能否通过作用于产业的进入和退出过程影响产业路径演化,具体模型构建如下：
式中：i,c分别表示产业和城市,t为研究时段初期,t+k表示研究时段末期,为避免内生性问题,自变量选择滞后一期。因变量densityi,c,t+k+1用于刻画城市c中i产业依赖已有路径发生演化的可能性大小。对于具体某一产业来说,densityi,c,t+k+1增加说明该地区所拥有的与i产业关联的产业密集度提升,那么产业在本地发展遇到的阻碍和风险就会越小,因此该产业在本地区越容易实现路径依赖式演化;反之则倾向于路径突破式发展。第一个核心变量为政府补贴的虚拟变量Subi,c,t,如果产业i中有企业在t年获得城市c的政府补贴,则记为1,没有企业获得补贴则为0;第二个核心变量Entry、Exiti,c,t+k表示新进入产业和退出产业。具体定义为如果城市c在t年没有产业i,而t+k年有产业i,则认为产业i为新进入产业,Entryi,c,t+k取值为1,否则为0;如果城市c在t年有产业i,而t+k年没有产业i,则认为产业i属于退出产业,Exiti,c,t+k取值为1,否则为0;FSf,t表示产业特征,主要包括以下几个变量：i产业内所有制属于国有的企业数量占整个产业所有企业总数比重(SOE),以及产业内外企数量比重(FIE)和私企数量比重(PRI);产业对外开放程度用产业内出口交货值大于工业销售总产值的企业数占产业内总企业数的比重(Exp)衡量;产业的平均生产规模则采用平均企业从业人数(Size)刻画,用于反映产业的劳动力密集度。X为区域特征变量,分别表征城市人口规模(Pop)以及人均财政支出水平(Expen)的差异。相关性分析显示,自变量之间相关性较弱,没有严重的共线性问题,变量描述性结果统计如表1所示。
表1 变量描述性统计结果
Tab.1 Description of variables
| Sub | Entry | Exit | SOE | FIE | PRI | Exp | Size | Pop | Expen | N | Mean | Std. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.29 | 0.45 | |||||||||
| Entry | -0.21 | 1.00 | 78029 | 0.29 | 0.45 | ||||||||
| Exit | -0.17 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 71481 | 0.22 | 0.42 | |||||||
| SOE | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.20 | 0.35 | ||||||
| FIE | 0.05 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.19 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.10 | 0.24 | |||||
| PRI | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.09 | -0.41 | -0.22 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.34 | 0.39 | ||||
| Exp | 0.14 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.08 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.19 | 0.32 | |||
| Size | 0.09 | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 0.01 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 113613 | 295.22 | 866.16 | ||
| Pop | 0.09 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 113413 | 501.25 | 346.39 | |
| Expen | 0.18 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 113486 | 96.92 | 199.11 |
区分产业进入和产业退出,通过构建混合截面数据模型进行OLS的分样本回归,实证分析政府补贴对中国产业结构演化的影响。为消除反向因果带来的内生性问题,在回归时对因变量采取滞后一期的处理。
表2回归结果显示,在产业演化过程中,产业进入和退出是区域新路径的开拓者。Entry和Exit二者的系数均显著为负,意味着产业的进入退出将降低区域对本地生产能力的依赖,带来路径突破的可能。新产业的进入,引入新的知识和技术,推动地区建立新的生产网络,对重塑地区生产格局产生重要影响;原有产业的退出同时会抽离相关的知识和资源,并且导致部分配套产业的“跟随效应”,从而降低本地产业间的关联程度,弱化既有产业的生产能力,同时也为新兴产业的进入腾出空间和资源,推动地方在未来产业发展时打破“路径依赖”。再者,在控制其他变量后,政府补贴Sub的系数始终显著为正,说明政府补贴具有显著加强地区产业路径依赖趋势的能力。此发现符合现实情境,由于产业转型升级是一个长期、成本高且成效慢的工程,因此短期内可能出现经济波动或者滑落的风险。相当一部分地方官员为了在任期内追逐经济快速发展和政治绩效,常采取保守策略,稳中有升,不敢采取大规模的变革和产业升级,通常锁定已有较低劳动力成本的传统产业,而将更多的补贴资源导向本地已有的优势产业,因此路径依赖将在政府干预之下不断得到强化(张晖, 2011)。
表2 政府补贴对中国地方产业结构演化的影响
Tab.2 Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in China
| 进入 | 退出 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-2008年 | 2009-2012年 | 1999-2008年 | 2009-2012年 | ||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
| Sub | 0.095*** | 0.108*** | 0.073*** | 0.073*** | 0.072*** | 0.115*** | 0.065*** | 0.103*** | |
| Entry/Exit | -0.107*** | -0.096*** | -0.104*** | -0.107*** | -0.139*** | -0.132*** | -0.125*** | -0.119*** | |
| SOE | -0.051*** | -0.050*** | -0.010* | -0.009 | -0.022*** | -0.018*** | -0.019*** | -0.016*** | |
| FIE | 0.035*** | 0.028*** | 0.014** | 0.001 | 0.040*** | 0.041*** | 0.047*** | 0.048*** | |
| PRI | -0.008*** | -0.007** | 0.010 | 0.014** | -0.046*** | -0.037*** | -0.056*** | -0.049*** | |
| Exp | 0.044*** | 0.044*** | 0.027*** | 0.026*** | 0.049*** | 0.050*** | 0.031*** | 0.036*** | |
| Size | 0.019*** | 0.028*** | -0.008** | -0.009** | 0.011*** | 0.027*** | -0.001 | 0.011*** | |
| Pop | 0.325*** | 0.325*** | 0.074*** | 0.076*** | 0.305*** | 0.304*** | 0.375*** | 0.374*** | |
| Expen | 0.199*** | 0.197*** | 0.463*** | 0.457*** | 0.578*** | 0.579*** | 0.688*** | 0.689*** | |
| Sub×Entry/ | -0.025*** | 0.002 | -0.109*** | -0.086*** | |||||
| Sub×Exit | |||||||||
| Sub×SOE | -0.001 | -0.003 | -0.0148*** | -0.011*** | |||||
| Sub×FIE | 0.015*** | 0.034*** | -0.005 | -0.005 | |||||
| Sub×PRI | -0.007 | -0.017* | -0.034*** | -0.027*** | |||||
| Sub×Exp | -0.001 | 0.000 | -0.004 | -0.012*** | |||||
| Sub×Size | -0.015*** | 0.000 | -0.022*** | -0.016*** | |||||
| Constant | 0.214*** | 0.220*** | -2.323*** | -2.291*** | 0.127*** | 0.123*** | -0.518*** | -0.524*** | |
| Observations | 77,254 | 77,254 | 24,117 | 24,117 | 71,275 | 71,275 | 71,275 | 71,275 | |
| R-squared | 0.482 | 0.483 | 0.448 | 0.449 | 0.591 | 0.592 | 0.669 | 0.669 | |
同时,除2009-2012年政府补贴与产业进入的交叉项显著性较低以外,整体各阶段的回归结果中补贴与产业进入和退出的交叉项均为负。这可能与2008年以后中国积极推进市场一体化发展,使得区域内产业基础逐渐夯实,政府引入新产业的干预作用减弱有关。但总体而言,政府补贴仍然对地区产业结构的演化发挥着重要作用,区域能够在政府补贴的帮助下促进产业结构的调整实现新路径的突破。上述发现与已有结论并不矛盾,因为动态比较优势理论指出,积极的政府干预可以促进潜力产业的发展(Lin et al, 2011)。区域权力的下放和激烈的政府间竞争导致地方政府具有强烈的地方保护主义倾向和产业发展战略的模仿行为(Zhao et al, 1999)。在GDP导向的官员绩效评价体系和财政激励之下,地方政府在保护本地产业的同时,为促进经济增长建设,倾向引进中央产业政策鼓励发展的产业,淘汰部分落后产业。因此回归结果表明政府干预在有机会实现路径突破时,也会通过加速产业动态演化从而实现区域新路径的创造。这一发现补充了已有文献中认为地方政府仅有单一地增强对现有产业的依赖的结论,表明地方政府在扶持产业发展时是多目标的。
从政府补贴与产业特征的互动作用结果来看,政府补贴对具有不同特征的产业作用也不尽相同。政府补贴会积极引导外资进入以加强地区路径依赖趋势,支持国企比重和私企比重较高的产业退出,从而帮助地区实现路径突破。同时政府补贴对平均企业规模较大的产业也具有明显的作用。
为进一步回答演化路径的选择是否存在显著的区域差异,将全国分东部、中部、西部进行考察如表3所示,结果发现在区域尺度上得到的结论与全国尺度的规律保持一致。东部地区主要作用于外商资本和私人资本优势明显的产业。此类产业在产业基础雄厚的东部地区,依托自身紧密的产业联系,通过与本地产业良性的互动加速地方网络间的知识溢出,从而强化本地区路径依赖的演化趋势。西部地区依托劳动力成本低以及政府力量较强的优势,主要作用于国有资本比重高的产业以及劳动密集型产业。而中部地区政府补贴的效果相对较弱,各项交叉项回归系数显著性较低甚至不显著,这可能是因为中部地区由于制度环境相对不完善,市场自身发育不够成熟,通过外部力量引导和推动产业发展虽然有利于迅速构建完备的产业体系,但往往会造成经济结构的扭曲和资源的滥用,导致产业之间不能形成紧密的联系,因此政府干预市场经济的效率较低,效果不显著。
表3 不同地理空间政府补贴对中国地方产业结构演化的影响
Tab.3 Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in Eastern, Central, and Western China
| 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | |||
| Sub | 0.108*** | 0.113*** | 0.071*** | 0.090*** | 0.095*** | 0.093*** | ||
| Entry/Exit | -0.099*** | -0.133*** | -0.088*** | -0.103*** | -0.091*** | -0.127*** | ||
| SOE | -0.033*** | -0.023*** | -0.039*** | 0.013*** | -0.022*** | -0.017*** | ||
| FIE | 0.026*** | 0.039*** | -0.014** | -0.007 | 0.022** | 0.011 | ||
| PRI | -0.028*** | -0.058*** | 0.007 | -0.029*** | 0.003 | -0.021*** | ||
| Exp | 0.052*** | 0.051*** | 0.001 | 0.021*** | 0.005 | 0.022*** | ||
| Size | 0.023*** | 0.058*** | 0.030*** | 0.013*** | 0.041*** | 0.036*** | ||
| Pop | 0.192*** | 0.193*** | 0.195*** | 0.140*** | 0.726*** | 0.624*** | ||
| Expen | 0.139*** | 0.477*** | 0.825*** | 2.419*** | 0.529*** | 1.190*** | ||
| Sub×Entry /Sub×Exit | -0.027*** | -0.166*** | -0.012** | -0.084*** | -0.021*** | -0.077** | ||
| Sub×SOE | -0.013 | -0.014** | 0.005 | -0.006 | 0.013* | -0.009 | ||
| Sub×FIE | 0.011** | -0.006 | -0.001 | -0.013 | -0.010 | -0.021* | ||
| Sub×PRI | -0.018*** | -0.045*** | 0.004 | -0.001 | 0.005 | -0.001 | ||
| Sub×Exp | 0.013** | 0.006 | -0.017** | -0.015* | -0.007 | -0.006 | ||
| Sub×Size | 0.016** | -0.030*** | -0.014** | -0.015*** | -0.029*** | -0.030*** | ||
| Constant | 0.587*** | 0.412*** | -0.258*** | 0.491*** | 0.174*** | -0.601*** | ||
| Observations | 39,995 | 35,382 | 22,755 | 21,568 | 14,504 | 14,325 | ||
| R-squared | 0.452 | 0.538 | 0.384 | 0.453 | 0.582 | 0.536 | ||
由于政府补贴作为一种财政手段,其实施效果很大程度受到地方财政能力的影响,不同财政规模的城市,其能力的不同导致政府干预效果的差异。因此本文将全国所有地级市的人均财政支出降序排列,取前10%以及后10%的城市为财政能力较强和较弱地区,位于中间区域的城市则代表财政能力一般的城市,以此区分不同财政能力的城市进行回归,回归结果如表4所示。交叉项的回归系数表明,财政能力较强的地区,政府可以通过影响不同特征的产业进入和退出显著改变地区生产能力。比如政府补贴扶持具有出口倾向的产业进入以深化地区路径依赖趋势;补贴引导私营企业比重较高和劳动密集型产业的退出则会有助于区域实现路径突破。财政能力一般的城市则更倾向于通过干预不同特征的产业的进入或退出,以促进地区实现路径突破,如可以在政府补贴的作用下引导具有出口倾向以及规模较大的产业退出。财政能力较弱的地区政府补贴与产业动态的互动作用程度较弱,大部分变量结果不显著。上述结论证明,随着财政能力的提升,政府干预产业结构演化路径的影响越强。这可能是因为通常地区财政能力越强,也是地方制度环境相对更加完善、经济发展水平和政府干预市场效率越高的反映。因此地区打破产业原有路径,抵御产业升级带来风险的能力也相对较强,更具有利用补贴实现路径创造的优势。这验证了Boschma等(2014)的结论,具有较高综合能力的国家或地区,企业间能更好地通过交流与联系促进知识溢出,更容易跳跃至距离较远的新产业,从而实现路径突破。
表4 不同财政能力地方政府补贴对中国地方产业结构演化的影响
Tab.4 Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in regions with different fiscal capacity
| 财政能力强 | 财政能力中等 | 财政能力中等 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | |||
| Sub | 0.053*** | 0.063*** | 0.084*** | 0.098*** | 0.071*** | 0.088*** | ||
| Entry/Exit | -0.038*** | -0.093*** | -0.087*** | -0.117*** | -0.074*** | -0.099*** | ||
| SOE | -0.008 | -0.018* | -0.034*** | -0.010*** | -0.015 | 0.028*** | ||
| FIE | 0.008 | 0.020*** | 0.006 | 0.008* | 0.009 | 0.002 | ||
| PRI | -0.013 | -0.020* | -0.005* | -0.037*** | -0.008 | -0.013 | ||
| Exp | 0.044*** | 0.060*** | 0.027*** | 0.042*** | 0.002 | 0.011 | ||
| Size | 0.096*** | 0.097*** | 0.037*** | 0.022*** | -0.003 | 0.040*** | ||
| Pop | 0.742*** | 0.700*** | 0.260*** | 0.223*** | 0.183*** | 0.292*** | ||
| Expen | -0.128*** | -0.008 | 0.587*** | 1.643*** | 1.908*** | -1.124*** | ||
| Sub×Entry/ Sub×Exit | -0.038*** | -0.076 | -0.016*** | -0.111*** | -0.0159* | -0.088* | ||
| Sub×SOE | -0.006 | -0.005 | 0.006 | -0.007* | 0.003 | -0.010 | ||
| Sub×FIE | 0.001 | -0.015** | 0.004 | -0.016*** | -0.011 | -0.020 | ||
| Sub×PRI | 0.014 | -0.033*** | -0.002 | -0.022*** | 0.026** | 0.012 | ||
| Sub×Exp | 0.020** | 0.011 | -0.006 | -0.016*** | -0.023** | -0.010 | ||
| Sub×Size | -0.012 | -0.056*** | -0.027*** | -0.020*** | 0.015 | -0.019 | ||
| Constant | 0.697*** | 0.404*** | 0.135*** | 0.574*** | 0.479*** | -0.711*** | ||
| Observations | 12118 | 11133 | 58604 | 54528 | 6532 | 5614 | ||
| R-squared | 0.712 | 0.772 | 0.395 | 0.483 | 0.467 | 0.442 | ||
最后为检验模型和结果的稳健性,进一步将假设区位熵大于1时产业具有比较优势调整为区位熵大于0.5时产业具有比较优势,重新计算产业关联指标,并代入模型重新回归,结果与之前结论没有显著差异,通过了稳健性检验,进一步支持了已有的理论假设和实证结果(表5)。
表5 稳健性检验
Tab.5 Model robustness test
| 进入 | 退出 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | ||
| Sub | 0.076*** | 0.098*** | 0.065*** | 0.103*** | |
| Entry/Exit | -0.098*** | -0.090*** | -0.125*** | -0.119*** | |
| SOE | -0.051*** | -0.051*** | -0.019*** | -0.016*** | |
| FIE | 0.045*** | 0.041*** | 0.047*** | 0.048*** | |
| PRI | -0.017*** | -0.013*** | -0.056*** | -0.049*** | |
| Exp | 0.028*** | 0.032*** | 0.031*** | 0.036*** | |
| Size | -0.004 | 0.004 | -0.001 | 0.011*** | |
| Pop | 0.360*** | 0.359*** | 0.375*** | 0.374*** | |
| Expen | 0.340*** | 0.338*** | 0.688*** | 0.689*** | |
| Sub×Entry/Sub×Exit | -0.018*** | -0.086*** | |||
| Sub×SOE | -0.001 | -0.011*** | |||
| Sub×FIE | 0.007** | -0.005 | |||
| Sub×PRI | -0.014*** | -0.027*** | |||
| Sub×Exp | -0.009*** | -0.012*** | |||
| Sub×Size | -0.012*** | -0.016*** | |||
| Constant | -0.802*** | -0.803*** | -0.518*** | -0.524*** | |
| Observations | 77,254 | 77,254 | 71,275 | 71,275 | |
| R-squared | 0.630 | 0.630 | 0.669 | 0.669 | |
本文基于中国制造业企业的数据,实证检验了政府补贴对于中国产业结构演化路径突破的影响。发现在区域产业演化过程中,新产业的进入和已有产业的退出是区域路径的创造者,地方政府在这一过程中将发挥双重作用。一方面,地方政府为在短时间内获得稳定快速的经济增长,利用政府补贴扶持本区现有产业的发展以迅速提升经济总量和税收,这一过程将提升地区现有生产能力从而增强地区路径依赖式发展的可能。另一方面,在区域产业发展拥有实现路径突破的可能性时,地方补贴又偏好通过引导不同特征的产业进入和退出为地区带来新的路径,实现路径突破。地方政府选择补贴不同特征产业所带来的效用也不尽相同。从全国整体来看,地方政府会偏好通过补贴优势吸引外资比重高的产业进入,从而帮助加强地区产业间的联系程度,增强其路径依赖的演化趋势;对于国有资本雄厚和私企比重较高的产业,地方政府则会利用补贴的手段及时淘汰或引导这类产业的退出为新产业腾出资源与空间,帮助实现地区的路径突破。此外,政府补贴在影响中国区域产业结构演化过程中呈现显著的空间差异和能力差异。东部地区主要作用于外商资本和私人资本优势明显的产业。西部地区主要作用于国有资本比重高的产业以及劳动密集型产业。中部地区政府补贴的作用相对较弱,各项交叉项回归系数显著性较低甚至不显著。最后,本文还发现随着财政能力的提升,政府干预产业结构演化路径的影响越强,越有可能突破地区已有能力的束缚实现路径突破。
在经济转型的新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,实现产业结构演化路径的突破成为重要的研究课题。现阶段,已有研究从区域研发投入、知识溢出、外部链接等方面讨论其对产业发展路径突破的影响,却未能回答在区域产业过程中路径的创造者是谁,以及政府干预能发挥怎样的作用?并且现有研究多基于市场条件成熟的发达国家,将区域产业发展描述为一种由区域内已有产业衍生出关联产业的内生增长过程,认为实现多样化发展需要的知识溢出的渠道是根植于本地已有生产能力的,例如企业家精神的衍生(spinoff)、企业多元化发展(diversification)、劳动力的内部流动以及社会网络关系等(Boschma et al, 2012)。本文以中国为例,发现“强政府”背景下的政府干预同样可为地区带来新的发展机会,区域的生产能力并不是一成不变的,政府可借助政府补贴等制度的外部力量打破地区的路径依赖,实现产业结构转型和多样化发展。本文一方面丰富了现有研究针对区域产业多样化发展的内源动力探讨,另一方面为世界演化经济地理学提供来自发展中国家的新证据。
伴随着中国工业化进程的不断深入,原先劳动密集型、资源密集型产业形成的路径依赖,难以在未来持续引领经济继续增长。中央和地方政府着力调整结构,促进转型发展,却尚未关注如何打破原有的路径锁定,创造新的路径。本文发现政府补贴能深刻地影响中国地方产业结构演化进程,为地方政府如何利用好这一手段促进地区经济发展提供政策参考。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间(Product Space)的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现:中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。
Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201606006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间(Product Space)的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现:中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。
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创新驱动是经济发展新常态下中国发展的必然选择。本文选取2000-2014年中国30个省（市、区）的创新能力相关数据构建面板数据集,运用线性加权综合法、变异系数、基尼系数、空间自相关、NICH指数分析等方法,结合GIS空间分析软件和SPSS数据分析软件,探究中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究表明：12000-2014年中国创新能力逐年提升,从2000年的0.199提升至2014年的1.775。其中知识创新能力和技术创新能力提升速度较快,而政府支撑和服务能力以及创新基础环境提升较缓慢。2创新能力区域差异由＂大差距低水平＂向＂小差距高水平＂转变,高水平和增长较快的区域主要集中在东部沿海地区,西南和西北各省（市、区）创新能力较弱且增长较慢。3区域物质资本集聚、区域智力资本集聚、区域创新环境、全球化知识溢出等是影响中国创新能力时空格局特征的主要因素。
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创新驱动是经济发展新常态下中国发展的必然选择。本文选取2000-2014年中国30个省（市、区）的创新能力相关数据构建面板数据集,运用线性加权综合法、变异系数、基尼系数、空间自相关、NICH指数分析等方法,结合GIS空间分析软件和SPSS数据分析软件,探究中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究表明：12000-2014年中国创新能力逐年提升,从2000年的0.199提升至2014年的1.775。其中知识创新能力和技术创新能力提升速度较快,而政府支撑和服务能力以及创新基础环境提升较缓慢。2创新能力区域差异由＂大差距低水平＂向＂小差距高水平＂转变,高水平和增长较快的区域主要集中在东部沿海地区,西南和西北各省（市、区）创新能力较弱且增长较慢。3区域物质资本集聚、区域智力资本集聚、区域创新环境、全球化知识溢出等是影响中国创新能力时空格局特征的主要因素。
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20 世纪80 年代以来,产业集群成为一种新的区域发展模式,受到理论工作者和政策制定者越来越多的关注。近些年来,从演化经济地理学理论学派的视角研究产业集群形成的动力、演化路径成为集群研究中的热点之一。本文首先介绍了产业集群形成的传统解释及其不足,然后回顾了演化经济地理学视角下的产业集群形成的研究进展,并总结了研究特点和主要研究思路,最后指出了在中国应用研究中需要注意的问题。
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This paper investigates whether related variety, among other types of spatial externalities, affected regional growth in Spain at the NUTS 3 level during the period 1995–2007. We found evidence that related variety matters for growth across regions, especially when using two new methods that measure revealed relatedness between industries. The first method is based on Porter's cluster classification while the second method uses the proximity index proposed by Hidalgo et al. Our analyses show that Spanish provinces with a wide range of related industries tend to show higher economic growth rates, once we control for other determinants of growth.Este artículo investiga si la variedad relacionada, entre otros tipos de externalidades espaciales, afectó el crecimiento regional en Espa09a a nivel NUTS 3 durante el periodo 1995-2007. Hallamos pruebas de que la variedad relacionada influye en el crecimiento entre regiones, especialmente al utilizar dos métodos nuevos que miden el grado de conexión manifiesto entre industrias. El primer método está basado en la clasificación de conglomerados de Porter, mientras que el segundo método utiliza el índice de proximidad propuesto por Hidalgo et al. Nuestros análisis muestran que las provincias espa09olas con un amplio rango de industrias relacionadas tienden a mostrar tasas de crecimiento económico más altas, una vez que se logra controlar otros factores determinantes del crecimiento.
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Beginning in 1922, the rate of exit of U.S. tire producers increased sharply and the industry began a severe and protracted shakeout. Just five years earlier, the tire industry experienced a surge in entry that led to a rise of over 80% in the number of producers. We propose an explanation for this episode based on the idea of industry submarkets, which we incorporate in a model of shakeouts. We test this theory and alternative explanations for the surge in entry and exit and the shakeout using a novel data set on patenting in tires and production in the early 1920s of the cord tire, a key innovation we feature in our theory. Our analysis suggests that the development of a new submarket can open up opportunities for entry but also stimulate innovation and in the process reinforce the advantages of the leading incumbents, accentuating the shakeout of producers.
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Economies grow by upgrading the type of products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions and skills needed to make such new products are more easily adapted from some products than others. We study the network of relatedness between products, or product space, finding that most upscale products are located in a densely connected core while lower income products occupy a less connected periphery. We show that countries tend to move to goods close to those they are currently specialized in, allowing nations located in more connected parts of the product space to upgrade their exports basket more quickly. Most countries can reach the core only if they jump over empirically infrequent distances in the product space. This may help explain why poor countries have trouble developing more competitive exports, failing to converge to the income levels of rich countries.
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The number of producers in the U.S. tire industry grew for 25 years and then declined sharply, and the industry evolved to be an oligopoly. The role of technological change in shaping the industry’s market structure is explored. A model of industry evolution featuring technological change is used to derive predictions that are tested using a novel data set on firm entry, exit, size, location, distribution networks, and technological choices prior to the shakeout of producers. Consistent with the model, earlier‐entering and larger firms survived longer, principally because of the influence of age and size on technological change.
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This study examines the relationship between urban land development and municipal finance in a Chinese regional economy undergoing rapid urbanization. Drawing upon insights from the perspective of political economy, this study analyzes how municipalities in coastal Jiangsu Province have engaged in the land-dominated urbanization process, and the developmental landscape that has emerged from the new approach toward local public finance. Land development has not functioned simply as a passive outcome of urbanization, but has been actively pursued by local governments as a means of revenue generation to finance local economic growth. An inverse correlation is found between the growth of land conveyance income and the level of the regional economies in China's administrative hierarchy. We call for greater attention to be directed to the interrelationship between land development, local public finance, and urbanization in the ongoing transformation of the Chinese political economy.
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Path dependence and regional economic evolution [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbl012 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
In recent years, economic geographers have seized on the concepts of ‘path dependence’ and ‘lock-in’ as key ingredients in constructing an evolutionary approach to their subject. However, they have tended in to invoke these notions without a proper examination of the ongoing discussion and debate devoted to them within evolutionary economics and elsewhere. Our aim in this paper, therefore, is, first, to highlight some of the unresolved issues surround these concepts, and, second, to explore their usefulness for understanding the regional economic evolution. We argue that in many important aspects, path dependence and lock-in are place-dependent processes, and as such require geographical explanation. At the same time, there has been little discussion of regional path creation: te assumption has been that new technological-economic paths emerge at random or spontaneously across space, an assumption that we find too simplistic. This leads on to the key question as to why some regional economies become locked into development paths that lose dynamism, whilst other regional economies seem able to avoid this danger and in effect are able ‘reinvent’ themselves through successive new paths or phases of development. We conclude that whilst path dependence is an important feature of the economic landscape, the concept requires further elaboration if it is to function as a core concept in an evolutionary economic geography.
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Localised learning and industrial competitiveness [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/23.2.167 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Changes in the international economy have gradually shifted the basis of industrial competitiveness from static price competition towards dynamic improvement, benefiting firms that are able to create knowledge faster than their competitors. The paper argues that proximity between firms plays an important role in interactive learning processes and that knowledge creation is supported by the institutional embodiment of tacit knowledge useful for particular classes of activity. Sustainable competitiveness requires the ongoing replacement of decrepit resources, the rebuilding of obsolete structures and the renewal of economically important national or regional institutions, when imitation gradually turns localised capabilities into global ubiquities.
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How do regions diversify over time? Industry relatedness and the development of new growth paths in regions [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2011.01121.x URL 摘要
abstract The question of how new regional growth paths emerge has been raised by many leading economic geographers. From an evolutionary perspective, there are strong reasons to believe that regions are most likely to branch into industries that are technologically related to the preexisting industries in the regions. Using a new indicator of technological relatedness between manufacturing industries, we analyzed the economic evolution of 70 Swedish regions from 1969 to 2002 with detailed plant-level data. Our analyses show that the long-term evolution of the economic landscape in Sweden is subject to strong path dependencies. Industries that were technologically related to the preexisting industries in a region had a higher probability of entering that region than did industries that were technologically unrelated to the region's preexisting industries. These industries had a higher probability of exiting that region. Moreover, the industrial profiles of Swedish regions showed a high degree of technological cohesion. Despite substantial structural change, this cohesion was persistent over time. Our methodology also proved useful when we focused on the economic evolution of one particular region. Our analysis indicates that the Link枚ping region increased its industrial cohesion over 30 years because of the entry of industries that were closely related to its regional portfolio and the exit of industries that were technologically peripheral. In summary, we found systematic evidence that the rise and fall of industries is strongly conditioned by industrial relatedness at the regional level.
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A fragmented China: Measure and determinants of Chinese domestic market disintegration [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00514.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract This paper studies the degree of integration of China's domestic market and investigates the determinants of inter-provincial trade barriers under the rubric endogenous trade policy theory. I rely on industry-level trade flows extracted from provincial input–output tables to develop a model that analyzes the magnitude and evolution of Chinese provinces’ engagement in domestic trade by computing all-inclusive indicators of trade barriers. Results underline that over the 1990s, not only was China's domestic market fragmentation along provincial borders great, but it also has become more severe at least between 1992 and 1997. The investigation of province-level and industry-level trade barriers confirms the relevance of applying the framework of endogenous protection to explain the level of impediments to trade between Chinese provinces. Findings emphasize that provinces’ domestic trade protection pursues a dual objective of socio-economic stability preservation and fiscal revenues maximization.
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Federalism and the soft budget constraint [J].https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.149988 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The government's incentives to bail out inefficient projects are determined by the trade-off between political benefits and economic costs, the latter depending on the decentralization of government. Two effects of federalism are derived: First, fiscal competition among local governments under factor mobility increases the opportunity costs of bailout and thus serves as a commitment device (the "competition effect"). Second, monetary centralization, together with fiscal decentralization, induces a conflict of interests and thus may harden budget constraints and reduce inflation (the "checks and balance effect"). Our analysis is used to interpret China's recent experience of transition to a market economy.
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The origins of endogenous growth [J].https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.3 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper describes two strands of work that converged under the heading of 'endogenous growth.' One strand, which is primarily empirical, asks whether there is a general tendency for poor countries to catch up with rich countries. The other strand, which is primarily theoretical, asks what modifications are necessary to construct a theory of aggregate growth that takes the economics of discovery, innovation, and technological change seriously. The paper argues that the second strand of work will ultimately have a more significant impact on our understanding of growth and our approach to aggregate theory.
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High technology industry and regional development: A theoretical critique and reconstruction [J].
Abstract The paper opens with a discussion of the emergence of new ensembles of relations and forces of production. A factual account of the geography of high technology industry in the United States is presented. Some prevalent current approaches to the locational analysis of high technology industry are evaluated. An attempt is then made to show theoretically (a) how new growth centres emerge, on the basis of (b) agglomeration economies rooted in (c) the organisation of industry and local labor market dynamics, in the wider context of (d) macro-regional shifts in the location of new industrial ensembles. Growth centre/periphery relations are examined. -Authors
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The razor's edge: Distortions and incremental reform in the People's Republic of China [J].https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300555024 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In a partially reformed economy, distortions beget distortions. Segments of the economy that are freed from centralized control respond to the rent-seeking opportunities implicit in the remaining distortions of the economy. The battle to capture, and then protect, these rents leads to the creation of new distortions, even as the reform process tries to move forward. In this paper I illustrate this idea with a study of the People's Republic of China. Under the plan, prices were skewed so as to concentrate profits, and hence revenue, in industry. As control over factor allocations was loosened, local governments throughout the economy sought to capture these rents by developing high margin industries. Continued reform, and growing interregional competition between duplicative industries, threatened the profitability of these industrial structures, leading local governments to impose a variety of interregional barriers to trade. Thus, the reform process led to the fragmentation of the domestic market and the distortion of regional production away from patterns of comparative advantage.
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Decentralization reforms and regionalism in China: A review [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/016001799761012424 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Since 1978, the decentralization reforms, in general, and the reforms in planning and fiscal systems, in particular, have brought about dramatic changes in the context of central-regional/local relationships, which have in turn generated a tremendous impact on and problems for China's regional development. This article aims to examine the impacts and consequences of China's decentralization reform on regional development over the past seventeen years. With a brief review of prereform experiences, this article focuses on the decentralization reforms of planning and fiscal systems in the 1980s and 1990s: the contract-responsibility reforms and the ongoing tax-sharing reforms, and their regional implications and consequences. Special attention is paid to regionalism that is emerging as a result of these reforms. The authors argue that regionalism, in forms of territorial segmentation and confrontation, was planted in the traditional administrative economic system, but grew and was exacerbated by the current flawed or uncompleted decentralization reforms. The current tax-sharing system reform, which centered the functional division between the center and localities, seems to be on the right track, but its fate is hard to predict and far from claiming success.
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