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Table of Content

    25 May 2008, Volume 27 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Original Articles
    Estimation on Indir ect Economic Losses of Geomorphic Hazards ———Taking debr is flow as an example
    LIU Xilin, ZHAO Yuan
    2008, 27 (3):  7-12.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.002
    Abstract ( 538 )   PDF (1066KB) ( 711 )   Save

    Debris flow is one of the geomorphic hazards. The economic losses caused by debris flows are not yet accounted precisely at present. One of causes is the statistics is not specified for each kind of disasters by different type of natural hazards; another cause is the problems of disaster loss statistics, i.e., quantitative disaster loss estimation have not been solved yet till now. Among the disaster losses, the direct economic loss estimation depends on technical method; while the indirect economic loss estimation depends not only technical supports but also scientific bases. Therefore, there is not acknowledged method for the quantitative estimation of indirect economic losses of disasters. The present paper proposes two estimation methods: one is survey analysis, and another is proportional coefficient. The former is feasible in theory but unfeasible in actuality, and is only a scheme; the latter is practicable but empirical, and is only a crude estimation. Considering the needs of disaster reduction and mitigation currently, the method of proportional coefficient for estimation of indirect economic losses of disasters is recommended.

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    Spatial Distr ibution of Ear thquake Fr equency and Seismic Intensity in China
    LIU Kai,LIAO Shunbao, ZHANG Sai,
    2008, 27 (3):  13-18.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.003
    Abstract ( 745 )   PDF (1900KB) ( 1096 )   Save

    Based on the data in seismic catalog , the characteristic of unequal time periods in different areas is considered in the spatialization of earthquake frequency. "Value of grid nodes density calculating of earthquake epicenter distribution group by magnitude" method is improved to spatialize point data to grids which describe earthquake frequency from the seismic catalog with the assistance of GIS spatial analysis methods. Furthermore, according to the relationship between earthquake magnitude and intensity and the model of elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity, spatial interpolation method, approximation method and approaching method are chosen to obtain grids which describe the average seismic intensity in China. The results of earthquake frequency distribution in China indicates that the frequency of earthquake magnitude above 3 in western China is higher than that of the eastern China bounded by a strip which consists of Shanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. It is concluded from the results of seismic intensity distribution in China that Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia, Hebei, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, which are located in seismic belts, are likely to encounter earthquakes that often cause higher intensity.

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    黄河源区应对草地退化的生态移民政策以及牧户响应分析———基于玛多县的牧户调查
    芦清水, 赵志平
    2008, 27 (3):  19-28.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.004
    Abstract ( 467 )   PDF (3572KB) ( 476 )   Save

    在全球气候变化和人类干扰的综合作用下,中国草地出现大范围的退化,退化的草 地造成了严重的生态问题。玛多县位于青海省三江源区的黄河源区,草地也出现了严重退化, 因此,青海省政府于2004 年在该地区实行了生态移民政策。为了分析牧户对生态移民的响应 差异,作者从牧户角度, 通过牧户调查, 遥感数据、自然要素和社会经济要素综合分析, 研究 生态移民政策和牧户的响应情况及原因, 对以后的人地和谐共处具有借鉴作用。本文利用近 25 年的三期MSS 和TM影像、两年的PRA 牧户访谈共144 户的资料,通过综合分析,得出以 下结果: (1)草地退化主要是由气候干暖化和草地载畜超载造成的。(2) 移民政策和牧户社会经 济情况的对比利益差异,导致移出的牧户以老年牧户、无畜/少畜户为主,牲畜多的、中青年牧 户普遍不愿移民。而且,移民户中,一证多户中的部分户移民占所有移民户54.5%。移民牧户 结构的上述特征导致通过移民实现草地载畜量明显减少的目标不易实现。

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    Preliminary Theory of Adaptation Mechanisms of Soil Erosion in Agr icultur al Landscape
    LI ZhengGuo, ZHOU QingBo, WANG YangLin, CHANG HsiaoFei
    2008, 27 (3):  29-37.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.005
    Abstract ( 464 )   PDF (735KB) ( 528 )   Save

    The consensus of atmospheric scientists is that climate change is occurring and affecting agricultural system increasingly. To maintain food security at a regional scale, we should recognize the key adjustable factors in agriculture management and design an optimized plan for agricultural landscape under climate change. This paper aimed at future soil erosion changes and tried to construct a research scheme for adaptation in agricultural landscape by combing related environmental factors. Firstly, to provide a scientific basis for prediction of soil erosion trends at various spatio- temporal scales, we summarized related studies about the influences of climate and land use change on soil erosion. Secondly, from the point of strengthening the adaptation ability to soil erosion, the relationships between landscape characteristics (landscape types, spatial patterns and crop management conditions) and soil erosion were fully discussed to improve the adaptation of optimized configuration in agricultural landscape. Finally, for evaluating the adaptation degree of agricultural landscape, soil loss and runoff were then predicted with an agent - based erosion model under future climate scenarios, which can help management of valuable cropland and suggest the need for continually changing soil conservation strategies.

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    Impact of Water Resour ces Exploitation and Utilization on Eco- environment in Ar id Ar ea: Progr ess and Prospect
    BAO Chao, FANG Chuanglin
    2008, 27 (3):  38-46.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.006
    Abstract ( 616 )   PDF (423KB) ( 1482 )   Save

    Water resources are the key restricting factor and one of the important sectors for ecoenvironment in arid area. During the rapid growth of population and economy in arid area, much water once for eco- environment was used for production and livng, so that in some arid areas, the exploitation and utilization of water resources have approached or exceeded the threshold of natural water resources, and the eco- systems are getting deteriorated or crashed. More and more attention was paid to the impact of water resources exploitation and utilization on eco- environment in arid area. At present, many scholars in China and abroad have studied this topic according to logical thought and obtained obvious progress, including the problems, the mechanisms, the adjustment criterion, the process simulation, the scenario forecast and the response countermeasures. Howerver, study on the impact mechanism of water resources exploitation and utilization on ecoenvironment in arid area is still weak. The quantitative relationship between water resources and eco- environment can still not be expressed. The impact intensity of water resources exploitation and utilization on eco- environment can not be explicitly simulated and forecasted. Some suggested coutermeasures on water resources exploitation and utilization for eco- environental protection still face many obstacles in practice. Consequently, in the future, we should take the impact mechanism as the base, the process simulation and the scenario forecast as the breakthrough, and the integrated coutermeasures sytem as the final task, and improve the research on the impact of water resources exploitation and utilization on eco- environment in arid area.

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    The Impact of Ecological Protection and Affor estation on Str eamflow in Heihe River Basin
    JIN Ming, YU Jingjie
    2008, 27 (3):  47-54.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.007
    Abstract ( 352 )   PDF (3145KB) ( 718 )   Save

    Heihe basin is an important part of the Chaobai river system, which lies on the upstream of Miyun reservoir. Since 1980s, the government has launched many activities on ecological protection and afforestation. In order to understand the impact of these activities on water resource in Heihe basin, this paper analyzes the changes of streamflow by using land use data in the 1980s and 2000 and the precipitation - runoff data from 1959 to 2000. The results show: the interannual variation of precipitation and streamflow in Heihe basin from 1959 to 2000 is large, but has generally shown no obvious trend of rise or decline; and the heihe basin area is dominated by woodland, grasslands and farmland. From 1980s to 2000, the area of woodland had increased by 800 hectares while grassland and farmland had decreased, respectively, by 700 hectares and 100 hectares. During 1980 to 2000, when lots of ecological protection and afforestation activities were carried out, the average runoff coefficient got a reduction of 4.1%, compared to that in the control period of 1959 ~1979. According to the data of two periods in discussion, the impact of ecological protection and afforestation on streamflow is - 0.308mm/hm2 and it indicates a phenomenon that the impact is the largest in wet years, smaller in normal years, and the smallest in dry years.

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    Impact of Land Use Patterns on Eco- environment in Pear l River Estuary
    LI Ying, WANG Zhonggen, PENG Shaolin, CHEN Baoming
    2008, 27 (3):  55-59.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.008
    Abstract ( 439 )   PDF (441KB) ( 784 )   Save

    In recent years, land use patterns in Pearl River Delta have changed a lot in such fields as aggravation of urbanization level, decreasing of vegetation coverage rate, and reduction of agricultural land, leading to in changes composition and amount of main land - source pollutants (sands, nutrient elements of nitrogen and phosphorus, heavy metals and organic pollutants). Landsource pollutions result in continuous deterioration of water environment in Pearl River Estuary and degradation of ecological functions, which leads to decrease of biodiversity , bioenrichment of heavy metals and organic pollutants, frequent breakout of red tides, deterioration of wetland functions and so on. The composition and amount of land- source pollutions is affected by land use patterns, so it is important for ecological restoration of Pearl River Estuary environment to make clear the relationship between land use patterns and pollution of estuary environment and to decrease the amount of land sources pollutions by changing land use patterns. The relationship between land use and estuary has characteristics of basins, frequently affected by outside, and water cycle is one of very important driving factors. So distributed hydrological models which have developed rapidly in recent years are methods to solve this scientific problem.

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    Progr ess in Study of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resour ces
    ZHANG Liping, CHEN Xiaofeng, ZHAO Zhipeng, HU Zhifang
    2008, 27 (3):  60-67.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.009
    Abstract ( 817 )   PDF (374KB) ( 1154 )   Save

    Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental problems of the world in the 21st century, and it attracts more and more attention of international communities and governments. It has theoretical and realistic meanings to study the climate change's impacts on hydrology and water resources, so as to understand and solve some problems in hydrology and water resources, such as plan management, operation management, environmental protection, ecological balance and so on. And hydrology and water resource system has close relationship with industry, agriculture, city development and economic fields. This paper reviews the study of impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources at home and abroad, and then summarizes some study methods of analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, such as generation technology for climate change scenario, interface technology with hydrologic models, and hydrologic simulation. At last, it raises problems in study and puts forward some suggestions, including improving the precision of climate models and hydrologic models and searching for forecast methods that can be applied to basins of different scales.

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    Methodologies of Intensive Land Use Resear ch: Issues and Tr end
    WANG Jing,SHAO Xiaomei
    2008, 27 (3):  68-74.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.010
    Abstract ( 735 )   PDF (310KB) ( 969 )   Save

    Currently,intensive land use research have got many research fruits. But some problems about basic theory, evaluate scale and methods, control technology of economizing land have been existed. Based on the review on researches on intensive land use,the developing trend and keystone of intensive land use research which should be enhanced in the future have been discussed in this paper.It can be concluded following research contents: ① the basic theory of intensive land use. Relevant technology and criterion, pattern and policy should be reviewed in order to construct the theory system of intensive land use research. ② surveying and evaluation of intensive land use. It is urgent to propose the indices and contents of investigating and monitoring on intensive land use and to study on surveying methods and evaluation methods from different angles of view and the process of environment change in different modes of intensive land use. ③control technology of economizing land, including controlling indicators of major types of construction land, methodologies of land use planning and zoning, engineering technologies of intensive land use. ④ restoration and reuse technologies on wasted land and degraded land, including information mining and evaluation, ecological restoration and reuse on wasted and degraded land, risk evaluation and ecology restoration on contaminated land, etc. ⑤ criterions and standards of intensive land use, including investigation and evaluation criterion, controlling criterion of industry land, etc. The results and conclusions in this paper will provide scientific basis for accelerating the study of intensive land use in China.

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    Differ ence in Environment Assessment of Land Use Planning between China and Europe Union
    CAI Yumei, LI Tianwei, WANG Hao
    2008, 27 (3):  75-79.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.011
    Abstract ( 425 )   PDF (220KB) ( 606 )   Save

    Environment impact assessment of land use planning is an important tool for making more rational land use planning, realizing sustainable land use planning and promoting regional sustainable development. According to analysis of problems when refering to the experience of European Union in the procession of making environment impact assessment for land use planning, the difference in environment impact assessment of land use planning between China and European Union is analyzed. Based on different characteristics of environment impact assessment between China and Europe, we analyze the differences from three aspects: the meaning of land use planning and environment, index system and measures for environment impact assessment of land use planning and spacial administrative levels of environment impact assessment. In the last, there were four measures of making environment impact assessment of land use planning with Chinese characteristic being put forward, including setting up environment impact assessment system for Land use planning, distinguishing the content of land use planning and environment impact assessment for land use planning, the plan - based methodology that should be adopted in environment impact assessment for land use planning, and enhancing collaboration between different subjects and departments. Besides, public participation is also important.

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    Dynamic Simulation on the Optimal Patterns of Land Use Change for the Farming- pastor al Zone in Nor th China
    XU Xia, LIU Haipeng, GAO Qiong
    2008, 27 (3):  80-85.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.012
    Abstract ( 424 )   PDF (1804KB) ( 687 )   Save

    Optimal land use planning, influenced by various factors,have been a frontier issue for LUCC studies in the world.Regarding CLUE - S model as the modeling framework,this paper designed a Land Use Change space optimizing simulation model and realized the optimal space distribution under six different scenarios.The findings are concluded that the difference of land use change is remarkable. Comparing optimal land use pattern scenario with the actuality, the cropland and grassland were concentrating. From the comparing of space distribution under different scenarios, at the space allocation process, the hotspot region was the Northeast, the Northwest and middle region. The Northeast focused on the forest land transformed to the cropland, middle region was the cropland to grassland, the Northwest was the space location changes between the cropland and grassland.

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    Change of Regional Urban Land Intensive Use and Analyses on Influential Factor s
    CAO Yingui,YUAN Chun,WANG Jing,ZHENG Xinqin,ZHOU Wei,QIAN Mingjie
    2008, 27 (3):  86-93.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.013
    Abstract ( 375 )   PDF (585KB) ( 660 )   Save

    the research of regional urban land intensive use is important for urban construction and development. In this paper, there are 14 capital cities chosen as the objects, which are chosen according to the different regions. In the same time, there are 20 indicators selected from urban carrying and urban harmonizing. Then the method of principle component analysis is taken to get the values of different urban land intensive use from 1997 to 2005, from the values, the results can be concluded that the effect of urban carrying indicators is more obvious than that of urban harmonizing indictors. In the process of urban land intensive use change, the sample cities are divided into 6 small regions and 3 big regions, in the small regions, the survey indicators of difference and stdev are used to reflect the consistence of urban land intensive change, and Haerbin City and Shenyang City, Chengdou City and Kunming City take on the high consistence. In the big regions, the intensive degree of eastern cities is higher than that of middle cities and western cities. At last, the influential factors of change are summarized from the natural direction, input direction, output direction and urban feature direction, and analyses on the trend of influential factors change in the research time, meanwhile, the correction between these influential factors and urban land intensive use. This paper on one hand make the regional urban land intensive use change clear, on the other hand, provide references for the undermining of regional urban land intensive use.

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    The Influencing Factor s of Resour ces and Environments in the Process of Urbanization of China
    YAO Shimou, WANG Chen, ZHANG Luocheng| Roger C K Chen, SONG Ping
    2008, 27 (3):  94-100.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.014
    Abstract ( 492 )   PDF (682KB) ( 718 )   Save

    Urbanization is an important and integrative topic for the development of society and economy in current China, referring to the fundamental problem of how to promote a coordinated and balanced development of national economy and to achieve a new level; and referring to sustainable development that exploits resources appropriately and protects the environment perennially likewise. China is a developing country with a large population, exiguous land and limited resources, whose population base achieves 1.3 billion. And the absolute number of urban population is the highest in the world. Therefore, the influences of resources and environments on urbanization in China are very tremendous and profound. This article commences from the concept of urbanization, discourses the influences and constraints of foundation of resources and environment to urbanization in China in - depth, and analyzes the country's basic conditions with dialectical thought. It also puts forward new points of view for the future urbanization according to scientific outlook on development, and proposes countermeasures based on the country's basic conditions for urbanization.

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    Review of the Theor ies and Methods of Livable City
    LI Yejin, ZHANG Wenzhong, TIAN Shanchuan, YU Jianhui,
    2008, 27 (3):  101-119.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.015
    Abstract ( 946 )   PDF (933KB) ( 2613 )   Save

    In 1898, Ebenezer Howard, worrying about the problems behind the prosperity of British cities, put forward the theory of "garden city". One hundred years later, with the acceleration of urbanization,the same problems occur in China. Recently, the concept of "livable city"is presented as a realistic choice for sustainable urban development. In 2005, "Livable Beijing" became a strategic development goal of Beijing in its Master Plan. Since then the need for theoretical studies of "livable city"is urgent. However, the research field of livable city is still a new one. The concept and relevant methodology of "livable city"is still vague. On this background, this paper reviews current research progreses and trends in this field, summarizes general understandings of "livable city", and discusses the evaluation structures and methods of it. It also points out three deficiencies in current research: first, theoretical study of "livable city"is still weak, and there are few studies on driving forces of livability; second, in terms of the research scale, studies on urban livability are focused more on city- based studies than on community- based and regional - based studies; and third, for research approaches, most studies have emphasized the method of presenting an evaluation index system, but new evaluation methods are inadequate.

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    Resear ch Progr ess on the Eco- Environmental Effect of Industry Agglomer ation in City Group
    LIN Xueqin, FANG Chuanglin
    2008, 27 (3):  110-118.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.016
    Abstract ( 487 )   PDF (868KB) ( 785 )   Save

    Industry agglomeration is a deep impulse force to the evolvement and the spatial expansion of city groups. Research on the eco- environmental effect of industry agglomeration in city groups has an important meaning regarding the construction of resource- conservative and environment- friendly city groups and the promotion of their competitiveness. The paper reviewed domestic and international research progress on theories, methods and practices in eco- environmental effects of industry agglomeration in city groups, pointed out the weak side of current study in this field and prospected main research directions in the future. Studies showed that the eco- environmental problems of industry agglomeration in city groups have received universal attention. Study on the influence mechanism and the effect which the industry agglomeration in city groups has on eco- environment has been held extensively in different aspects from industry sectors, industry structure, industry layout and industry cluster. And countermeasures to realize coordinated development of industry agglomeration and eco- environment in city groups are also discussed. Quantitative analysis methods, including emergy analysis, ecological footprint, system dynamic model, artificial neural network analysis method, input- output method, grey system analysis method and multiobjective programming method, have been applied to evaluating the eco- environmental effect of industry agglomeration in city groups, as well as analyzing, simulating and predicting the correlation between industry agglomeration and eco- environment in city group. In current research, theoretical studies and approach applications are still insufficient, and the research system is still not formed. In the future, the theory research based on spatial characteristics of city groups should be enhanced, and multi - disciplinary merges, enrichment of research approaches and technical methods and the integration with practice should also be strengthened.

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    Spatial Structur e of Office and Residential Land Development: Pr ice Gr adient, Development Scale and Location Var iation
    REN Rongrong, ZHENG Siqi
    2008, 27 (3):  119-126.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.017
    Abstract ( 442 )   PDF (4483KB) ( 916 )   Save

    The purpose of this study is to explore the spatial evolution of office and residential land development based on bid- rent functions, and then make an empirical study by taking the case of Beijing. Methods of theoretical analysis, econometric models and GIS technology are employed. The results indicate that office land developments have higher price gradients and closer locations to the city center compared to residential land developments, and larger development scales may happen to the land use with relatively higher price in certain regions. In addition, the empirical studies provide evidence to asset- land substitution and agglomeration economies for office land development. With the development of land market in China, market forces may play an increasingly important role in land development, and land price may influence land development scales, location variations and development intensity.

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    Pr eliminary Resear ch on Function Optimization of the Tour ism Landscape Ecosystem
    JIANG Yiyi,, ZHANG Xiaofei, WANG Yanglin, YUE Jun,
    2008, 27 (3):  127-133.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.018
    Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (387KB) ( 570 )   Save

    Quickly development and spread is the tendency of tourism industry. Therefore, it is a valuable scientific issue to study how to harmonize the human- environment relationship, so as to promote the sustainable development of tourism destination. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, this article proposes that the function of tourism landscape ecosystem is the representation according to the demand of human society and is the result of reciprocity between ecosystem elements, which are tourists, residents and environments. The functions of the tourism landscape ecosystem consist of ecological functions and tourism functions. And the structure of the functions can be divided into relation structure and spatial structure. The former is the interrelation and status of elements, and the latter is the spatial pattern of elements. Furthermore, this article poses the following function characteristics of tourism landscape ecosystem. Firstly, ecological functions and tourism functions interact and sustain one other. Secondly, functions present different degrees in process. Thirdly, the spatial pattern tends to be a network. Fourthly, varying elements will lead to functional changes in the tourism landscape ecosystem. Then, this article analyzes the factors driving the function change. Finally, the methods to optimize the function are summarized, which are the harmonization of elements and optimization of spatial patterns.

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    Compar ison and Analysis of Tour ist Development Models in Gr and Shangr i- la Region
    XU Kejian
    2008, 27 (3):  134-140.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.019
    Abstract ( 424 )   PDF (3357KB) ( 763 )   Save

    The so- called Shangri- la region is actually the main body of the Hengduan Mountains, administratively including eastern Tibet,northwestern and southwestern Sichuan. It is one of the few hotspots of biological and cultural diversity in the world. According to the nature of the tourist developer, this paper has summed up three models of tourist development in the Grand Shangri- la region, which are Mingyong Development Model, Hailuogou Development Model and Yulong Snow- covered Mountain Development Model, respectively. Then, the paper makes a concrete analysis of advantages and disadvantages of these models. It is shown that they overrun economic benefits and some serious problems exit in the management systems, e.g., the administrative power, managerial authority and ownership are in confusion; the government ownership is multi- separated; the status of the state, a representative of state- owned resources owner, is not clear. The paper suggests that the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress should strengthen legislation on national important landscape resources like the World Heritage sites, national nature reserves, national geoparks, national scenic spots, etc., so as to build a strict supervision and management system. It is also necessary to respect the traditional religious belief and taboo of the ethnic minorities and bring them into play in protecting environment; to encourage communities to participate in protection and supervision; to support and bring up environmental NGOs, to enhance the whole nation’s awareness of environmental protection, and finally to promote sustainable development in the Grand Shangri- la region.

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    Simulation of Water Policy for Beijing Based on CGE Model
    DENG Qun,XIA Jun,YANG Jun,SUN Yangbo,
    2008, 27 (3):  141-151.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.020
    Abstract ( 531 )   PDF (2013KB) ( 822 )   Save

    Due to climate change,uneven distribution of precipitation and diversified geo - conditions, Beijing is facing serious water problems. Now this negative impact tendency develops increasingly fast due to population boost, rapid GDP growth and urbanization. Governments and international communities encourage solving those water crises by means of integrated river basin management and urban water system innovation. It has become a must to give a deep research of water resource economics for sustainable development and promoting social market functions. Water prices and waster water fees are two major factors in water resource economics analysis and give a great impact on national economy. Most researchers have used part equilibrium model to analyze relationship between water price, GDP growth and industry output. But in some cases, it would give unreasonable results according to some experts research. For this reason, scientists are using general equilibrium model to analyze the change of GDP and industry output affected by water resource policies. GEMPACK soft package is a wonderful calculation tool for CGE model. The paper builds 43*53- sector input- output table for water CGE model. In this paper the authors use it to simulate Beijing water resource policy. The paper researches four aspects: first, factors which affect water resource policy; second, rules of water supply and demand; third, evaluating water resource and building water resources input and output table; and fourth, establishing water CGE model and simulating water policy by GEMPACK software. The innovations also focus on such issues. The simulation gives two scenarios: (1) increase water price by 10 percent; and (2) increase water quantity by 10 percent. The results are as follows according the simulation: 1) Water resource policy affects GDP and industry output Water resource is a strategic social economical resource and it will affect industry output and commodity production. There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture has the same tendency as water price change and it is more sensitive to water quantity than to water price. So water saving technology gives more contribution to agriculture and should be given more priority. For basic energy industries such as Oil, Chemistry and Gas, they show diversity tendency: some of them would increase while others will decrease when increasing water price or quantity. As to some high water consuming industries such as Paper and Textile, water resource economic policy can affect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water- saving technology. Waste water and Construction and Service industries show the same tendency as water policy. 2) Government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer prices change more than expected as to water policy for water industry in a free market economy. So government policy makers should be more carefully to prepare suitable forecasts and plans for water policies and their negative impacts. The paper achieves simulation of water policies by using CGE model and GEMPACK software and the result will give theoretic and practical suggestions to urban water price innovation and policy decision.

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    Str ata Efficiency and Optimization str ategy of Str atified Sampling on Spatial Population
    CAO Zhidong, WANG Jinfeng, LI Lianfa, JIANG Chengsheng,
    2008, 27 (3):  152-160.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.021
    Abstract ( 614 )   PDF (2594KB) ( 1070 )   Save

    Efficiency of stratified sampling for geospatial population is restricted by spatial autocorrelation. Strata efficiency origins from two aspects: the first is spatial auto- correlation, which makes sampling with dispersed distribution improve the accuracy; and the second is priori knowledge, which can make the variance smaller within strata than within the overall population. The strata efficiency for knowledge strata is more outstanding than that of arbitrary strata only in the geographical object with strong spatial auto- correlation; when the spatial auto- correlation is weak, knowledge will not be preferred to the arbitrary strata. Spatial auto - correlation has an important influence on stratified sampling design: Although a stratified statostoc always "gains" in terms of accuracy, the implementation of the technique is conditional, expensive and sometime unnecessary. This is often overlooked in practical application. Different stratified sampling surveys for the ratio of thin - non - cultivated component in Shandong Province are simulated by using Mento Carlo method. Simulated results validate the influence of spatial: auto - correlation on different stratified methods. Finally, this paper proposes optimization strategy of strata selection for geospatial objects.

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    Study on Pr ediction Model Based on Segr egation and Aggr egation of Hydrologic Time Ser ies
    ZHAO Changsen,, XIA Jun, SHEN Bing, ZHANG Huitong, SUN Changlei, HOU Zhiqiang6,YA Likun
    2008, 27 (3):  161-165.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.022
    Abstract ( 430 )   PDF (748KB) ( 600 )   Save

    To overcome the shortcomings in conventional forecast methods, a new Prediction Model based on Segregation and Aggregation of Hydrological Time Series (PMSAHTS) was put forward. Impacts of human activities on hydrological data sequences were firstly eliminated through segregation of trend and period signals in the data sequences. Secondly, the remaining random sequences were used as inputs to train BP Neutral Network, and then the trained network was used to predict random sequences in the future. Finally, the predicted random sequences were aggregated with the prediction results of trend and period terms. Thus the predicted hydrological sequences were obtained. To demonstrate this model, PMSAHTS was applied to predict the annual month- average evaporation in the Hotan Sub- project Area. It was shown by the results, among all comparisons of predicted values with measured ones, 62.5% of then have a prediction relative error less than 20%, which suggests that the PMSAHTS was qualified for hydrological prediction in practice.

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    Estimation of Thermal Iner tia from Remotely Sensed Data: Cur r ent Status and Futur e Per spective
    ZHANG Xiaoyu, BI Yuyun, LI Zhaoliang
    2008, 27 (3):  166-172.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.023
    Abstract ( 446 )   PDF (344KB) ( 856 )   Save

    Thermal inertia is one of the important factors affecting surface temperature change and can be used in several disciplines for such purposes as discrimination of geologic materials, soil moisture determination, identification of crop stress in moisture deficient areas et al. With the advancement of the algorithms to retrieve land surface temperature from thermal infrared data, accurately to estimate thermal inertia from satellite data. This paper reviews the main algorithms and approaches estimate the thermal inertia from thermal satellite data, including method of day/ night temperature difference, method of temperature difference between sunset and sunrise and method using the model inversion. Among these methods, the method of day/night temperature difference is analyzed in more detail. On the basis of the comprehensive analysis and review of the advantages and disadvantages of each method, this paper put forward some research directions in the future to improve the accuracy of thermal inertia estimated from space, including mechanism research, scale proplem and use of multi- temporal and multi- spectral data.

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