Articles
ZHUANG Rulong, YANG Jie, MI Kena, ZHANG Chaoyang, ZHI Menglu
With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and increasing income, household energy consumption has become an important growth point of energy consumption in China. Grasping the spatiotemporal characteristics of household energy consumption and identifying the influencing factors and development trends of household energy consumption will help to accelerate the construction of a modern energy system, promote low-carbon energy transformation, and achieve the dual carbon goals. This study took household energy consumption as the research object and systematically explored its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics in China. Furthermore, it used the spatial econometric models, grey prediction, and scenario analysis to examine the influencing factors and development trends of household energy consumption. The study found that: 1) From the perspective of spatiotemporal characteristics, household energy consumption showed an upward trend from 1995 to 2021. Meanwhile, the gap in energy consumption between urban and rural households was gradually widening, but their per capita household energy consumption showed a trend of convergence. 2) From the perspective of proportion and structure, household energy consumption accounts for about one tenth of the total energy consumption, and the household energy consumption structure showed a trend of diversification and clean development. 3) From the perspective of influencing factors, energy intensity, population size, household size, education level, economic development, urbanization rate, and car ownership were important influencing factors for household energy consumption, but the degree of impact varied. 4) From the perspective of future trends, China's household energy consumption will continue to grow by 2040, and under the scenario of steady development, the growth rate is slower, indicating that the implementation of government policies and the popularization of green consumption concept among residents have a positive effect on controlling the growth of household energy consumption. Based on the results of this research, this article argued that the energy consumption structure should be adjusted by increasing the proportion of natural gas consumption, the energy consumption structure of rural households should be optimized, and the energy development policy should be further improved and the consumption concept of residents should be changed to control the excessive growth of household energy consumption.