Using the 5th census data with urban districts (counties, cities) as the basic geographic units, this paper analyzes the relationship between gender and vocation space based on research into 133 samples of 21 cities. Through an analysis of vocational composition and vocational typical areas of permanent population and floating population respectively, the authors come to some conclusions: (1) Permanent population has more diversified distribution in vocation space and is more organizational than floating population. None of them have produced an effect of social polarization, and the polarization of income and vocation distribution also does not create polarization of social space, but show a feature of quasi social polarization. (2) Vocation structure of both permanent population and floating population shows characteristics of middle-class and orientation to central city in space. High income groups who are trained with professional skill and highet education are dominating in both of them. Among permanent population, some are employed in agriculture and others in service industry. But the majority of floating people are employed in manufacturing sector. The difference between them does not show a strong contrast like core and periphery. Many studies compare permanent population with floating population in the context of itself and the others. Floating population is frequently regarded as the peripheral group. This paper provides a geographical annotation. But more subsequent research is needed to demonstrate whether the difference in vocation will cause structural social stratification between permanent population and floating population.

This article examines the central role of occupation as the "reward packages" in creating earnings disparities between rural migrants and local workers in urban China's labor markets. Analyses of data from the population mini-census of China in 2005 show that, rural migrants' earnings disadvantages are largely attributable to occupational segregation (between-occupation variation) by workers' household registration status (hukou) rather than unequal pay within the same occupations, but surprisingly they enjoy a slight earnings advantage in lower-status occupations (within-occupation variation). Even after controlling for education and other characteristics, occupational segregation by hukou status continues to exist. The occupational segregation is the most severe in government agencies/state institutions and the least severe in the private sector, leading to earnings disparities between rural migrants and urban local workers in different work unit sectors. Our findings shed new light on how government discriminatory policies could affect occupational segregation and thereby create inequality among social groups in urban China.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

推进产业集群培育和产业有序转移,对实现长江经济带产业转型及协同发展具有重要意义。以开发区为研究视角,从时空两个维度刻画了长江经济带的产业结构特征及空间集聚状态,重点剖析了技术密集型、资本密集型和劳动密集型产业的演化特征。结果表明：长江经济带开发区的装备制造、电子信息、汽车及零部件等技术密集型产业相对于全国而言优势显著,但下游、中游和上游地区开发区的产业能级存在梯度差异;开发区产业布局主要依托“城市群-中心城市”,劳动密集型产业呈“小集聚、大分散”的格局,资本密集型产业主要集聚在资本雄厚、矿产资源丰富或沿海沿江地区,技术密集型产业已形成规模不等的集聚连绵区。从演变特征看,开发区的产业结构高级度与其设立时间正向相关,且存在上中下游间的差异性,下游地区的开发区产业结构更加高级化;同时,技术密集型、资本密集型和劳动密集型产业之间的空间关联性逐渐增强。最后,本文初步构建了一个基于开发区的产业集群培育和产业有序转移的理论分析框架,并提出相应的政策建议：未来长江经济带世界级产业集群的建设应重点依托国家级和省级开发区,通过开发区产业分阶段的集群化发展模式来带动区域经济发展;同时,也应以各类开发区为载体,推进关联地区产业的有序转移。

To realize the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is important to promote the industrial cluster cultivation and orderly industrial transfer. Based on an analysis on development zones, this paper depicts the characteristic differentiations of industrial structures and industrial agglomeration patterns in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Then we specially look into the evolution characteristics of technology, capital and labor intensive industries in development zones. The results show that compared with the whole China, there exist obvious advantages for the equipment manufacturing, electronic information, automobile and parts, new material, new energy and other technology-intensive industries in development zones of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. However, in the development zones, there are significant gradient differences among downstream, middle and upstream of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in terms of the industrial development levels. Secondly, the industrial distribution mainly relies on the “urban agglomeration and central city” in space. Labor-intensive industries are partially aggregate and averagely disperse, and capital-intensive industries mostly flourish in places that are favorable in capital, natural resource endowment or geographical location while technology-intensive industries have formed clusters of different scales. We find that, how to advance the industrial structure in development zones of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is related to its establishment time. The earlier the development zone is established, the more advanced industrial level will be. Furthermore, the industrial development stages of different areas’ development zones are distinguished, and the development of downstream areas is more advanced. Besides, the spatial correlation among three categories of industries appears to be stronger and stronger, from relatively unbalanced to coordinated development. Finally, combined with the case analysis of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and relevant theoretical basis, this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of industrial cluster cultivation and orderly industrial transfer based on development zones and puts forward some policy recommendations. In the future, during the construction of world-class industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the role of either national-level or provincial-level development zones acting in industry-cluster growth mode is indispensable. At the same time, in combination with industrial development gradient and industrial (technological) linkages, various development zones will be formed as carriers to promote orderly industrial transfer, which is an important way to realize regional cooperation and coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

区域发展是区域产业不断演化、转型与升级的过程。近年来发展起来的演化经济地理学旨在通过分析企业进入、成长、衰退和退出等动态过程阐释企业、产业、集群、网络、城市和区域的空间演化,认为区域产业发展演化遵循路径依赖,并决定于产业技术关联。然而路径依赖式演化理论过于强调内生发展过程,忽视了外生因素和制度变革带来的路径创造机会。中国处于经济转型时期,区域产业结构变动剧烈。技术关联推动了区域产业演化,显示中国区域产业演化具有路径依赖性,同时市场化、全球化和分权化的经济转型过程为区域产业发展创造了新路径。外部联系、制度安排、行为主体的战略性行为等促进了路径创造。

Regional development is a process in which industries develop, transform and upgrade constantly. Evolutionary economic geography understands the spatial evolution of firm, industry, cluster, network, city and region through the lens of firm entry, growth and exit, and argues that regional industrial evolution is path dependent and determined by inter-industrial technological relatedness. However, path dependence theory overemphasizes the endogenous factors in regional industrial development and ignores the critical role of external linkages and institutional factors, which would bring path creation for regional development. In China, there has been dramatic transformation in regional industrial structure since the economic reform. Empirical studies indicate that technological relatedness has indeed significantly determined regional industrial evolution, suggesting a path dependent process. Meanwhile, marketization, globalization and regional decentralization provide great opportunities to create new industries for regional development. In particular, external linkage, institutional factors and purposeful and strategic actions of local actors would stimulate path creation.

This article proposed the concept of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement firstly, through analyzing the process and the deviation of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement in Northeast China during 1953-2005, established the intensity coefficient model and mechanism model of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement, studied the spatial effect and the form of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement, and also divided the regional types of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement. The results show that urbanization level and industrial structure evolvement present fluctuating changes from 1953 to 2005 as a whole. There are certain deviations between urbanization and non-agricultural industrial development. The fact that the coefficient of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement in Northeast China increases constantly indicated that the urbanization response intensity which led to the industrial structure evolvement is increasing unceasingly, the intensity of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement has spatial difference; the improvement of urban economic density, the enlargement of urban population density and scale as well as quantitative growth of regional population are prime dynamic factors of industrial structure transformation in Northeast China; the form of urbanization response to the industrial structure evolvement in Northeast China includes all kinds of development areas, urban economic region, traffic economic belt, resource-based city and port city and so on, each kind of form's growth has exerted the important spatial effect to the industrial structure evolvement; the Northeast area can be divided into metropolitan region, resource processing urban region, traditional urban agricultural region, frontier urban port region, fragile urban ecological environment region, industrial optimization and urban space's conformity and harmony are the main regulation models of each regional type.

As the floating population grows rapidly and China's economic development enters the new normal，unemployment of the floating population has gradually aroused public concern.Based on the research framework of the push-pull theory of migration，this study examines the unemployment situation of the floating population in China using the data of the 1% sample survey of the national population in 2015.Logistic regression model is used to study the factors affecting the unemployment risk of the floating population.A growing trend of unemployment of the floating population has been observed.The unemployment rate of the floating population reached 4.9% in 2015.In addition to individual characteristics，factors related to the place of origin and destination，and the migration process also significantly affect the unemployment risk of the floating population.Therefore，policies addressing the issue of unemployment of the floating population need to incorporate migration policy with employment policy，improve availability of diversified jobs for the floating population，and enhance their capacity in job mobility across industries and occupations.

全球化与经济一体化的深入促使劳动力的空间流动更为频繁,并呈现外出与回流并存的格局。作为发展中人口大国,中国的劳动力回流现象不断增多,流动“双向化”趋势日趋明显。本文从劳动力回流理论、回流动因、回流者的就业行为与影响机制入手,对国内外已有文献进行梳理分析,发现在回流理论中,主张成功/失败的经济理论长期占据主导地位,但这一分析范式开始受到社会学理论的挑战。回流决策不仅受外出者自身经济因素所驱使,而是在社会联系、地方经济政策环境等因素的综合影响下产生的。回流劳动力并不是简单的经济上的“失败者”,他们通过物质资本和人力资本积累,表现出更强的就业能力,通过自主创业等活动,促进了家庭收入的增加和家乡经济多元化。但由于制度环境及经济发展特点的差异,中国国内劳动力回流的动因与就业行为具有自身特点。最后,从回流理论、回流的空间效应及新生代农民工回流等方面对中国未来的回流研究进行了展望。

Labor migration is becoming more frequent in the era of globalization and regional economic integration and involves the parallel processes of out migration and return migration. As a developing country with the largest population in the world, China's return migrants in rural areas have been increasing in number and the trend of bi-directional labor migration is increasingly clear. This article provides a comprehensive overview of international and Chinese research on return migration based on labor return migration theories, motivation of return migration, and employment behavior and mechanism of returnees. We found that the economic theory of success-failure dichotomy was dominant in theoretical explanations of the phenomenon of return migration in the past, but this dichotomy has been increasingly challenged by sociology and other theories. Among the driving factors of return migration, migration duration, wage, and human capital characteristics significantly influence the likelihood of return, but social ties to areas of origin and socioeconomic policy context at home also play an important role in the process of returning home.Returnees have better economic performance because of their accumulation of savings and skills and their entrepreneurial projects improve living conditions and income of the family and promote economic diversification of the home areas. Because of the differences in institutional environment and stage of economic development, return migration within China differ from other countries with regard to driving factors and occupational choice. Finally, perspectives of research on return migration in China were put forward in respect to theory, spatial effects of return migration, and return of new generation rural migrant workers.

促进女性就业,不仅能够提高女性社会经济地位,还有助于提高社会生产力和经济活力。论文以东北三省“五普”“六普”和2015年1%人口抽样调查数据为基础,借助空间自回归模型方法,探讨东北地区城市女性就业水平的时空特征及其驱动机制。结果表明：① 东北地区城市女性就业水平整体较低,其中南部城市的女性就业水平高于北部。② 从影响因素来看,高学历、便捷的交通、较高的工业水平、完整的家庭以及更多的家庭支持对城市女性就业水平具有积极效应;而养育负担对女性就业水平具有负向效应。其中,三代及以上家庭户比例是2000—2015年老工业基地城市女性就业水平空间分异的主导因素,可见,一个完整的家庭对女性就业具有极其重要的作用。

Females are important force in promoting social development. As the most direct way for women to participate in social and economic developments, employment has always been an important topic in scientific research. Taking the old industrial bases in Northeast China as an example, this study explored the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of urban female employment level by means of spatial analysis. The results show that: 1) The level of urban female employment in the old industrial bases in Northeast China from 2000 to 2015 was generally low, mainly at medium and low levels; the medium level was mainly found in the central and southern regions, and the lower level was mainly distributed in the north. 2) From the analysis of influencing factors, it can be seen that higher education, convenient transportation, developed industries, the proportion of women with spouses, the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above, and the proportion of households with three or more generations had a positive effect on the level of urban female employment, while demographic pressure had a negative effect on female employment level. Obviously, a complete family plays an extremely important role in female employment. 3) The government should integrate all sectors of society, encourage social capital to participate in the development of the elderly and childcare, and provide more and better quality services to families with strong needs for elderly care and childcare. In addition, promote the "family" culture of "respecting the old, loving the young, and being friendly with neighbors", encourage family members to participate in housework together, build an equal relationship between men and women in housework, create a harmonious family environment and social atmosphere, and relieve women conflict between work and housework.

基于珠三角六城市流动人口的问卷调查数据，划分流动人口就业类型，从职业布局和多样化指数的角度比较了新生代、中生代和老一代三代流动人口职业结构差异，利用无序多分类Logistic模型对影响因素进行探究。研究发现：1）珠三角流动人口整体就业水平不高，就业结构在代际间分异明显。新生代在技术型就业和公司文员型就业上表现出优势，中生代在各行业就业相对均衡，老一代多被束缚在以体力劳动为主的基础型部门；就业多样化水平随代际的升高而下降。2）代际就业结构的影响因素及影响方式存在共性和差异，共性因子为受教育程度、月薪水平和性别；外出务工时间正向影响新生代服务型和管理型就业，工作环境稳定的职业对已婚新生代更具吸引力，中生代对户籍和工作保障因子更为敏感。政府可从代际就业特征出发，为流动人口制定有针对性的就业政策；针对就业市场中女性和农村户籍人口的弱势地位，为其提供就业引导，创造健康的就业环境，提高流动人口整体就业水平。

Based on a questionnaire survey data of the floating population in six cities in the Pearl River Delta, this paper dynamically divides the generations of the floating population according to the socio-economic background of the birth and growth. The new generation, born after 1988, grew up in the process of following their parents out to work away from their hometown, and was significantly affected by the digital information age. The middle generation, born from 1978 to 1988, is the older group of the new generation, and its demographic characteristics and growth era have transitional properties. The older generation was born before 1978, in consistent with the range of the first generation of migrants. The three generations are compared from the perspective of occupational structure and diversity. The disorderly multi-class Logistic model is used to explore the influencing factors of the occupational system. Based on the results, we establish the following: 1) The overall employment level of the floating population in the Pearl River Delta is not high. Here, as the generation shifts downward, employment becomes more diversified. 2) There are significant differences in the characteristics of the three generations of the floating population. From the old generation to the new generation, the sex ratio tends to be balanced, and the proportion of single floating population increases, in addition, working experience is reduced while education level is improved. The degree of job security and monthly salary show an "inverted U-shaped" intergenerational distribution. 3) The overall floating population is concentrated in services and manufacturing, and low-end service, production, construction employment are the most common employment options. The new generation has advantages in technical jobs and corporate clerical profession. The middle generation employment in different industries is relatively balanced, and managerial employment is relatively high. The older generation is mostly confined to the basic sector dominated by manual labor. 4) There are similarities and differences in the influencing factors of the intergenerational occupational structure. The common factors are education, monthly salary, and gender. The time spent working away from hometown has a positive impact on the service-oriented and management-oriented employment of the new generation. Occupations with a stable working environment are more attractive to the married new generation, and the middle generation is more sensitive to household registration and job security factors. 5) To improve the employment status of the floating population, this paper discusses the population employment policy: On one hand, facing different intergenerational employment characteristics, the new, middle, and old generations are supplemented with guiding, encouraging, and supportive employment policies. On the other hand, focusing on influencing factors, the government should continue to promote the reform of the household registration system, support the development of education, and guide women's employment and self-employment. 6) The article made a new attempt to classify the original intergenerational classification, which improved the timeliness of the intergenerational division of the floating population. But the study is limited to a specific time section. In the future, previous employment experience and future employment desire of the floating population can be taken into consideration to enhance the continuity and pertinence of intergenerational employment research.

This article addresses the linked topics of internal migration and occupational discrimination against migrants. The data, collected from 21 manufacturing companies in Shanghai, indicate that migrants are a heterogeneous group in terms of their origins. Migrants from rural areas are the least well-educated. In contrast, migrants from other cities in China have attained significantly higher education than local workers in Shanghai. Much of the literature compares the occupations of rural migrants and local residents; urban migrants are often neglected. By examining occupational patterns for rural migrants, urban migrants and local workers, this study adds to the literature through a full assessment of occupational inequalities. Such inequalities reflect both market forces (rewards for differing productivity) and institutional factors (rewards on grounds of residential status).

文章从比较研究的视角,实证分析了流入地流动人口与同时期流出地留守人口两个人群的就业特征及其影响因素。结果发现,流动人口的职业呈现出鲜明的"非农化"和地缘性特征,单位依附性增强,但职业地位并未提高。除了地域和个人特征变量之外,就业时间与就业渠道显著影响流动人口的职业选择;出人意料的是,尽管超过半数的留守人口有过外出务工经历,但控制其他变量之后,外出经历对于留守人口的职业选择并没有统计上显著的影响。文章对这些结论的社会意义进行了讨论。

Using the migrant survey data in May 2009,we examine the characteristics and determinants of migrant employment in urban China,compared with the situation of their rural "left-behind" counterparts.Results show that migrants are mainly engaged in non-agricultural occupations with marked geo-characteristics;and their employment pattern has changed from "individual operation without employees" to "permanent/ contract/ temporary workers" with more dependence on enterprises and institutions.In addition to regional and individual characteristics,working time and employment channel affect their occupation choices.Despite the fact that more than half of the rural "left-behind" people have had the experience of being migrant workers,the experience hasno significant effect on their occupation after controlling other variables.Implications are discussed in the paper.

促进流动人口市民化成为当前国家推进新型城镇化进程中着力解决的重点问题,而永久定居意愿是促进流动人口市民化的关键内在驱动力。论文从地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿出发,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和多元线性回归模型开展实证研究。结果发现：① 地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿有着整体水平偏低、空间不均衡的特点;永久定居意愿流形成以上海市、深圳市和北京市为主,内陆部分城市群的核心城市为辅的多极格局;随着永久定居意愿的增强,对城市的选择愈发聚焦在少数几个一线城市。② 模型结果显示,流入地级市与流出地级市间的工资与失业率的差距显著影响地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿;女性、年长、受教育程度高、短距离迁移、停驻时间长以及举家迁移等的流动人口具有更高的永久定居意愿;流入城市的住房开始取代就业成为定居决策过程中最为重要的经济因素变量。

The importance associated with employment is especially prominent all over the world especially in China. The population quantity brought huge pressure to the harmonious society of China. This paper records the findings of a survey into the fifth census data of China, and the authors chose 16 indexes in each county, city and urban district based on the GB/T4754-94 industrial classification standards. With the methods of Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, and visualization technique of ARCGIS, we conclude the employment structure features and spatial distribution of 2343 counties, cities and urban districts in China. The views expressed in this paper are as follows: First, there exist six spatial models in Chinese population employment, i.e., serial-concentric circles, discontinuous-concentric circles, jumpable-concentric circles, mixed-concentric circles, multi-cores concentric circles and belt-concentric circles. Second, we find that the population employment along eastern coastal areas of China and the Yangtse River formed a "T-shaped" pattern, and the spatial distribution of China's employment of an evident urban-rural duality with six clusters. In the Eastern cluster and Northern cluster, the population employment centered upon the secondary industry; in the Beijing-Tianjin cluster, the population employment centered upon the tertiary industry; the Middle Western cluster, the population employment centered upon the first industry; as the Eastern cluster and Northern cluster, the population employment of the Xinjiang cluster centered upon the secondary industry.

在分析现代服务业与城市化互动关系理论的基础上,借鉴物理学中的耦合理论,分析了现代服务业系统与城市化系统之间协调发展的机制,构建了两个系统的耦合评价模型及指标体系,并以常熟市为例,对两者的耦合协调关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:不同类型的城市,其服务业与城市化之间存在不同的互动关系,对一般综合性城市而言,现代服务业与城市化之间存在明显的耦合关系,二者相互作用,彼此影响。2003-2012年常熟市现代服务业与城市化综合评价函数值总体均呈上升趋势;耦合度在十年间变化极小,基本保持在0.49左右;耦合协调度呈不断上升趋势,实现了从2003-2008年失调阶段向2009-2012年协调阶段的转变。但总体上,两系统耦合协调等级较低,到2012年尚处于初级协调阶段;耦合协调度的类型也长期是城市化发展滞后型。

The prosperity of modern service industry has become a remarkable feature of the modern economy. And city is the main space carrier to the development of the modern service industry. Modern service industry is closely related to urbanization; they interact and influence each other. The paper, on the basis of the analysis of the interaction between modern service industry and urbanization, with the help of coupling theory in physics, analyzes the functional mechanism of coordinative development between modern service industry system and urbanization system, and constructs the coupling evaluation model and index system of two systems. With Changshu as an example, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the coupling coordinative development relation between the two systems. We expect our research can grasp the comprehensive development level and the status quo of coordinated development of modern service industry and urbanization in Changshu. In addition, we summarize some common laws about the development of modern service industry and urbanization, and provide theoretical reference and case demonstration for the towns in economically developed areas in China. The main conclusions of this study are as follows. First, there exists the coupling relationship between modern service industry and urbanization. The comprehensive evaluation functional value of urbanization and modern service industry in Changshu generally presents an upward trend from 2003 to 2012. This illustrates that the modern service industry of Changshu have kept a sustained development. Besides, the level of urbanization also has been raised. The coupling degree has changed a little in the past ten years, being around 0.49. Coupling coordinative degree presents a rising trend, the transition from imbalance during 2003-2008 to coordination during 2008-2012. However, on the whole, the coupling coordinative degree of the two systems is very low, and it is only 0.6013 by 2012. In addition, urbanization development lags behind modern service industry for a long time. To achieve a better coordination, further studies need to be strengthened. Finally, we carry on the self-examination for the shortage of the article, and point out the direction of future efforts.

A mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression model is described for analysis of clustered or longitudinal nominal or ordinal response data. The model is parameterized to allow flexibility in the choice of contrasts used to represent comparisons across the response categories. Estimation is achieved using a maximum marginal likelihood (MML) solution that uses quadrature to numerically integrate over the distribution of random effects. An analysis of a psychiatric data set, in which homeless adults with serious mental illness are repeatedly classified in terms of their living arrangement, is used to illustrate features of the model.Copyright 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

基于中国2007—2012年287个地级及以上城市的创新投入要素和专利申请量的面板数据（未含港澳台地区数据），采用面板固定效应模型和面板分位数回归模型，揭示人力资本水平提升对区域创新产出的影响机制及其区域异质性，以及人口空间集聚对人才创新驱动作用的调节机制。结果表明：① 平均而言，人力资本水平越高的城市，创新产出水平越高，但人口集聚程度与创新产出水平并不存在显著的关联；② 人力资本水平提升对创新的驱动作用存在区域差异，在创新等级越低的城市中其作用效果越强；③ 人口空间集聚强化了人力资本水平对创新的驱动作用，城市规模扩大促进了知识的溢出；④ 人口空间集聚调节作用的显现需要达到一定的创新基础门槛，城市创新等级越高，调节作用越强。因此，各地方政府应当结合当地发展的实际情况，制定适宜的人才培育和人才引进策略，合理引导人才流动。

This article aims to investigate the impact of human capital stock on innovation output in China, particularly focusing on its regional heterogeneity, using the panel data of patent application and innovation input among 287 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2012 (excluding the data of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan). In particular, we use two indicators, the percentage of highly educated talents and the average year of schooling, to capture the level of human capital accumulation. We use the number of patent applications as a proxy for innovation output and population density as a proxy for the level of population concentration. We use fixed-effect models to estimate the linkage between human capital stock and innovation output at the prefecture level and panel quantile regressions to capture the regional heterogeneity. Finding from regressions show that, on average, increased stock of human capital is associated with more innovation outputs, and population concentration is not significantly directly linked to innovation output. The effect of human capital accumulation on innovation output varies from one city to another, and this effect is stronger in cities that situate in the lower rung of innovation hierarchy. The concentration of population is found to strengthen the positive impact of human capital accumulation on innovation, and the increase in urban size is found to promote knowledge spillovers. The moderating effect of population concentration on the relationship between human capital stock and innovation output occurs when the innovation capacity of a city reaches a certain threshold. This moderating effect becomes stronger with an increase in a city’s innovation capacity. Therefore, policymakers are advised to formulate and implement appropriate policies to attract and cultivate talents and to encourage movement of talents, considering the innovation capacity and urban size.

经济快速增长和社会转型促使中国人才迁移的地理景观正涌现出一些新特征和新趋势。利用中国2005年、2010年和2015年千分之一人口抽样调查微观数据,揭示2000—2005年、2005—2010年和2010—2015年全国高学历人才省际迁移格局的演化趋势,选用零膨胀负二项回归模型解释高学历人才省际迁移格局的演化机理。结果发现：① 中国高学历人才跨省流动性呈先增后减的演化趋势,人才省际迁移规模的空间分布开始趋于均衡化。② 东部发达省市人才净流入活跃,中部、东北和河北等地区人才净迁出活跃,2010年后发达地区的人才高强度净流入及欠发达地区的人才高强度净流失问题均开始缓解。③ 高学历人才由中西部流动至东部地区的主要迁移模式比较稳定,但东部向中西部地区的高学历人才迁移规模持续上升。④ 从影响因素的演化趋势上看,全国人才省际迁移主要为经济驱动型,但收入在人才迁移决策中的重要性开始减弱,产业转型、购房成本、教育服务舒适性及气候舒适性对人才跨省流动性的影响开始增强。⑤ 全国人才跨省流动性的演化机制具有一定的阶段分异性,前期,城镇居民收入差距的扩大是人才跨省流动性升高的主要动因;之后人才跨省流动性的减弱主要受城镇居民收入差距的缩小、发达地区过高的购房成本及小学教育服务设施短缺等因素影响。

The rapid economic growth and social transition in China brings about some new trends of skilled migration. Based on microdata of China's 2005, 2010 and 2015 one-thousandth population sample survey, this paper analyzes the evolution pattern of China's interprovincial migration of highly-educated labors in the periods of 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015, and employs zero inflation negative binomial regression models to explain the evolution mechanism of the interprovincial migration of highly-educated talents. Results show that: (1) the interprovincial mobility of China's highly-educated workers rose first and then declined from 2000 to 2015, and the spatial distribution of migration volume of highly-educated talents tended to be balanced. (2) The net inflow rate of highly-educated talents was high in the eastern developed provinces, while the net out-flow rates were high in the central region, northeastern region and Hebei Province; the high-intensity net inflow of highly-educated talents in developed areas as well as high-intensity net outflow in less-developed areas began to ease after 2010. (3) Highly-educated individuals mainly migrated from central and western regions to eastern coastal areas, while the sizes of highly-educated labors migrating from eastern regions to central and western regions continuously increased. (4) From the perspective of the evolution trend of influencing factors, China's interprovincial migration of highly-educated talents was mainly driven by economic factors, but the importance of income in the decision-making of skilled migration tended to weaken, and the impact of industrial transformation, housing price income ratio, education service facility, and climate on the interprovincial mobility of talents began to increase. (5) The evolution mechanism of the interprovincial mobility of highly-educated talents in China varied in development stages. In the early stage, the widening urban residents' income gap was the main driver for the increase of the interprovincial mobility of highly-educated talents. After that, the decrease of the interprovincial mobility of highly-educated talents was mainly affected by the narrowing urban residents' income gap, the high housing price income ratio and the shortage of primary education service facilities in developed areas.

依据教育部直属高校2015届本科毕业生生源与就业数据,采用指标评价与冷热点分析方法,分析升读大学与本科就业两个流动阶段的人才流动地域模式及省域空间分布格局。研究表明：① 人才流动具有明显的本地空间粘滞性特征,地域模式包括“本地-跃迁”型、“本地-半依附”型和“本地-依附”型。② 省际层面形成沿东南沿海与长江沿岸分布的“弓形”格局,显示了优势区域的整体粘滞性对人才高地形成的意义。研究指出,把握关键节点、依托城市群来发挥粘滞作用有助于城市推进引智工作。

By looking into the enrollment and employment data of graduates from universities directly administered by China Ministry of Education and with the method of index evaluation and hot-cold spot analysis, this article analyzed the graduates’ regional flowing patterns of two flowing stages of enrolled in the university and employed after graduation, and the resulting spatial distribution at the provincial level. The study found that the flow of talent from the university to study in different stages, can more clearly reveal the characteristics of the geographical space for talents. The local spatial viscosity in different regions dominates the flow of talent, and geopolitical and income factors in subsequent plays a role of regional adjustment. In the two stages, the flow of talent has significant spatial viscous characteristics. The geographical pattern of the flow includes “local-leapfrog” mode, “local-semi adherent” mode and “local-adherent” mode. Under the influence of different factors, the enrollment stage is dominated by “local-(semi) adherent” mode due to the adherence to the geo-social relations, while the employment stage is dominated by “local-leapfrog” type, which is adhered to the multiple possibilities of regional employment opportunities and benefits. From the perspective of the provincial pattern formed by talent flow, however, the spatial distribution of talents at the level of provincial level is more flat, while the phase of employment flow is more polarized in the longitudinal distribution. The “arch” pattern along the southeastern coast and the Yangtze River is characterized in both two stages, and the Yangtze River Delta region belongs to the hot spot of talent. However, because of the lack of provincial integration and linkage, the centralization of talent is not significant enough in the central and western regions, which highlight the important effect of the dominant area’s viscosity in the formation of the high ground of talent. It is suggested that different cities should bring into full play the role of local glutinosity to enhance the work of introducing university intelligence, from the two stages of talent generation and with the help of the strength of the urban agglomeration.