文章从人口迁移流动的不同形式及其演变趋势、中国国内人口迁移整体强度的国际对比、人口迁移流动的微观生命过程、以及人口循环流动的发生发展机制和近期演变等4个方面回顾了国际上对人口迁移流动演变趋势及其机制的相关研究,并根据从中获得的借鉴和启示对中国人口迁移流动的未来走势做出判断,认为目前我国人口在区域和乡城间迁移流动的减缓更多预示的是人口迁移流动形式的改变,而不是其整体规模和强度的下降,后者还有着相当大的上升空间;今后仍不可忽视针对迁移流动人口的各种公共服务的转移、接续问题,并要根据人口迁移流动形式的变化,尤其是人口在城市间和城市内部迁移流动上升的新形势,与时俱进地改进流动人口的管理和服务工作。

This article reviews international literature on the changing trends of population migration and mobility and their mechanisms from the following perspectives: the changing trends of different forms of population mobility，the international comparison of the overall intensity of China’s internal mi- gration，the micro life course of population migration and mobility，and the mechanism and recent evolution of circular migration．The authors derive the following views on the future trends of China’s population migration and mobility from the above review and its implications: First，the recent decreasing trends of regional and rural-urban migration in China indicate changes in the forms of China’s population mobility rather than a real decline of its overall volume and intensity，which will still be on the rise; Second，great attention still needs to be paid to the portable issues of various public services provided to the floating population; and third，the management of and services to the floating population need to be improved in accordance with the changes in the forms of population mobility，especially the rise of urban to urban and intra-urban migration and mobility．

人口迁移流动形式是构成人口迁移流动特征的一个关键要素。在中国进入人口城镇化中后期后,准确判断和把握人口迁移流动形式的转变是一项十分重要的工作。论文基于人口迁移流动形式转变的相关理论与国际经验,考察现阶段中国人口迁移流动形式转变的进程和特点及由此产生的问题与挑战。研究发现,中国人口迁移流动形式已发生转变,并突出表现为人口回流现象不断增多、省际和省内人口迁移流动此消彼长的趋势日益明显;城—城流动显著增加,人口的城-城间流动将渐成常态化;流动人口户籍城镇化进程开始加快,其城乡两栖生计的重心向城镇转移;住房驱动下的流动人口就地、异地城镇化渐成趋势等。同时,人口迁移流动形式转变过程中面临着人口回流推动的就近就地城镇化发展可持续性不足;城—城流动向东部少数省市聚集的态势明显;以户籍城镇化主导的农业流动人口市民化面临多重障碍等问题与挑战。最后,从流动人口城镇化的空间载体构建、城市治理方式转变、中西部小城镇自我可持续发展能力提升等方面提出相应的建议。

The form of population migration and mobility constitutes a key element of the characteristics of migration. Since China has entered the late-intermediate stage of urbanization, it is very important to accurately identify and understand the transformation in the form of population migration and mobility. While a growing body of literature has been generated and significant progress has been made on China's population migration and mobility and its determinants, an important inadequacy of relevant research are often focused on rural to urban population migration and mobility, neglecting the multi-dimensional forms of population migration and mobility. Based on relevant theories and international experience relating to the transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, and using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), Report on Monitoring and Investigation of Migrant Workers in China, and relevant statistics, this study examined the processes of the transformation in the forms of the population migration and mobility in China and their characteristics at the present stage and the issues and challenges arising therefrom. The results show that there have been significant changes in the forms of population migration and mobility in China, and such changes mainly manifest in the following aspects: First, there has been a steady increase in return migration and short-distance migration; Second, inter-urban migration has also significantly increased and become increasingly common; Third, the urbanization process of the floating population based on the rural-urban transfer of their hukou has started to accelerate, and their rural-urban multiple livelihoods has increasingly shifted towards the urban end; Fourth, there has been a developing trend of urbanization driven by housing purchases in both migrants' places of origin and destination. The study also identified issues and challenges in the process of transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, including: First, there is a lack of sustainability in in situ urbanization promoted by return migration; Second, urban-urban migration are highly concentrated in a few provinces of the eastern region; Third, there are still many obstacles for the urbanization of rural migrants based on their hukou transfer. Finally, the article puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspectives of the construction of multi-level spatial system of urbanization of the floating population, the transformation of urban governance mode, and the promotion of the capacity for sustainable development of small towns in central and western regions.

长期以来，“流动人口”和“人口流动”这两个概念、以及基于这两个概念获取的数据在中国相关研究和政策制定中得到广泛使用，甚至主导着中国人口迁移流动的研究。在国际背景下对这两个概念和相关数据的有效性和可靠性进行了深入地检视，并通过对若干人口普查数据和流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析，揭示“流动人口”和“人口流动”在测量人口迁移流动事件时的失效和失真。结果表明，“流动人口”和“人口流动”概念及相关数据已与现实的迁移流动事件和过程严重脱节；它们既可能因高估迁移流动人口的规模而失真，也可能因系统性遗漏某些迁移流动人口（如城—城流动人口）而失效，同时还严重干扰对现实人口迁移流动方向的判断。此外，基于“人户分离”得到的流动人口数据还存在着不能用于“率”指标的计算和缺乏国际可比性等问题。基于此，本文认为中国人口迁移流动的相关概念、测量和数据收集应回归其反映空间变动事件的本质功能，逐步扩大使用基于5年前常住地（乃至1年前常住地）变动的人口迁移流动数据，并充分利用人口登记和行政管理数据开发基于迁移事件的人口迁移流动数据，为分析和判断中国人口迁移流动的演变趋势和规律提供有效且可靠的数据基础。

The two concepts of "liu dong ren kou (the floating population)" and "ren kou liu dong (the mobility of the floating population)", and relevant data based on these two concepts, have long been used extensively in China's relevant research and policy making, playing a dominant role in the fields. Different from the concepts of "migrant" and "migration" in the international literature, which are focused on people's spatial mobility, "liu dong ren kou" and "ren kou liu dong" are identified and measured by the separation of one's place of household registration (hukou) from the place of residence, and inconsistent with relevant international practices. By analysing various census data and data from China Migrant Dynamic Survey (CMDS), this article examines the validity and reliability of these two concepts and data based on them in the international context, and reveals that they have become increasingly invalid and not reliable in measuring migration events since the reform and opening up. The results further demonstrate that these two concepts and the data based on them have been increasingly detached from the real migration events and processes; they may become invalid because of overestimating the volume of the mobile population, or ineffective due to systematic omitting of certain group of the mobile population (such as urban-urban migrants), and can even seriously mislead people's judgment on the changing direction of migration flows. In addition, data on the floating population cannot be used to calculate migration rate and are not comparable in the international context. Based on the above analysis, the article argues that while the concepts of "liu dong ren kou" and "ren kou liu dong" and relevant data based on these two concepts still need to be used for a long period of time due to the continuing existence of the hukou system and its roles in the provision of public services, social welfare and social security, relevant concepts, measurements and ways of data collection in China's migration research should be gradually shifted to and focused on the nature of migration as spatial events; transition data based on the usual residence five years and one year ago should be gradually used as the main data sources and included in the short form of future censuses, and migration event data based on population registration and administrative records should be more fully used, so that China's migration research can be conducted on the solid basis of valid and reliable data sources.

Analysis of return and onwards migration flows has typically relied upon lifetime migration definitions. Both Canada and Australia have collected data on usual place of residence both one and five years prior to the census, which provide a richer source of information on return and onwards moves. Utilizing data drawn from complementary sources, this article examines the incidence, composition and spatial patterning of return and onwards migration at the state and provincial level in Canada and Australia over the period of 1986–1990–1991. Results indicate a high degree of symmetry in these processes between the two countries. While many of the findings are consistent with those derived from analysis of lifetime data, we find that one quarter to one third of return moves were to the original (1986) dwelling, indicating a planned return rather than the failed migration as previous literature has often assumed.

改革开放30年来,我国流动人口规模不断增大,对我国的经济发展和社会进步起到了重要作用。但我们对流动人口的认识总体来讲是底数不清、情况不明,流动人口变化趋势研究更是罕见。本文通过深入挖掘1982年以来历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据资料,总结得出了改革开放30年来我国流动人口变动的九大趋势:流动人口的普遍化、流动原因的经济化、流动时间的长期化、流入地分布的沿海集中化、年龄结构的成年化、性别构成的均衡化、女性人口流动的自主化、流动方式的家庭化和学业构成的"知识化"。

改革开放30年来,我国流动人口规模不断增大,对我国的经济发展和社会进步起到了重要作用。但我们对流动人口的认识总体来讲是底数不清、情况不明,流动人口变化趋势研究更是罕见。本文通过深入挖掘1982年以来历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据资料,总结得出了改革开放30年来我国流动人口变动的九大趋势:流动人口的普遍化、流动原因的经济化、流动时间的长期化、流入地分布的沿海集中化、年龄结构的成年化、性别构成的均衡化、女性人口流动的自主化、流动方式的家庭化和学业构成的"知识化"。

基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，采用嵌套Logit模型分析了地理、制度、信息和知识等多维邻近性对城-城流动人口流入地选择的影响。结果表明：城-城流动人口倾向于流入与户籍地地理相邻、制度相似、信息联系密切以及与自身知识水平相匹配的城市，这在一定程度上缓解人口向工资水平高、就业机会多和公共服务水平好的大城市集聚的趋势；不同维度的邻近性之间存在替代效应，省内流动能够降低距离对流入地选择的负面影响；多维邻近性的影响强度存在群体差异，女性对知识邻近性更加敏感；新生代流动人口对正式制度和信息邻近的城市有更强的偏好，但受知识邻近性的影响较弱；高学历群体更能远距离、跨省迁移并受到城市间互联网信息联系更强的影响；而有过流动经历的劳动力再流动时更能克服地理、文化和知识距离的限制。

As entering into middle-and-late-stage of urbanization, China’s rural-urban migrants has slowly declined after decades of growth while the amount of urban-urban migrants continues to increase. The migration flow among cities reflects the rational choice of the urban population and has a profound impact on the urban system and urban development. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the mechanism of urban-urban migration flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of urban population. Focused on urban-urban migrants who differ from other types of migrants in several ways, this paper develops a framework of how multi-proximity, which includes geographical proximity, institutional proximity, informational proximity and knowledge proximity, makes an influence on destination choice by affecting the migration cost. Based on data from the 2017 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey, and by using the nested logit model, we empirically tested the proximity-migration relationship. The results show that multi-proximity has a significant and robust impact on migrants’ destination choice after controlling for the effects of cities’ characteristics. Urban-urban migrants prefer destinations that are geographically adjacent to their origins and those located in the same province and dialect area. Besides, they are more likely to choose cities which are closely connected with their origins and match them well in education background. Substitutional effect is also found between geographical and formal institutional proximity. But the effect of multi-proximity varies among sub-groups of intercity migrants. This is reflected in the following facts. First, women are more sensitive to knowledge proximity than men. Second, young migrants are less affected by knowledge proximity but relies more on informational and formal institutional proximity than the older. Third, highly educated labors are more able to migrate over a long distance and across provinces, and are affected more by internet information flow between cities than their counterparts. Finally, onward migrants can get over the barriers of geography, culture and knowledge better owing to their accumulation of experience in the previous migration experiences. Empirical results also verified the clear preference of labors for large cities with high wages, abundant job opportunities and adequate public services. But the preference can be relieved by the effect of multi-proximity. Empirical results of this study indicate that policy makers of small cities can strengthen local attraction to the surrounding areas through industrial development and public service improvement to avoid increasingly severe outflow of labors and maintain long-term competitiveness.

文章使用2013年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据，采用二分类Logistic回归分析方法，分析城-城流动人口参加养老保险的影响因素。研究发现：第一，个人特征方面，性别、年龄、受教育程度与参保行为显著相关，男性相比女性参保率较高；25～34岁组参保可能性最大；受教育程度越高，参保可能性越大。第二，经济社会因素中，单位性质为外资企业的流动人口参保可能性最大；收入越高，参保率越高；拥有商品房或自建房的相对于租住私房的参保率更高。第三，流动因素中，流入区域、时间和流动范围对参保行为影响显著，中部相对于东部、西部参保可能性最小；市内跨县流动者相对于省内跨市、跨省流动者参保可能性更大；流入时间越长参保可能性越大。

Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population from National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, this study conducts binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors for urban-to-urban migrant population on the endowment insurance participation. The results show that personal characteristics, such as gender, age and education, are closely related to the enrollment. Males and people aged from 25 to 34 and with higher education are more likely to participate. Employer type, income and housing situation are most important economic and social factors that influence the endowment insurance participation of the floating population. Migrants working in foreign invested enterprises are most likely to participate. Those with highincome or possessing their own houses are also more likely to enroll. Types of destination, duration and distance also have significant impact on the participation behavior. The floating population in central China has lower rate of enrollment than those in east and west China. The cross-countymigrants are more willing to attend than the cross-city and cross-province ones. The longer the migrants stay, the higher the probability of participation is.

在近二、三十年大规模的人口流动、快速的城镇化进程中,青年乡-城流动人口可能因户籍性质、户籍地点、年轻(故而缺乏工作经历和经验)而成为中国目前最脆弱的群体之一。文章以社会排斥理论为分析框架,使用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,探讨青年乡-城流动人口经济融入的模式、特点和影响因素。结果显示,与其他相关人群相比,该群体的绝对经济社会地位和相对融入水平都是最低的,处于三重弱势地位。该现象说明,社会发展带来的潜在的积极后果可能被制度及结构性因素所抵消;同时,文章的发现也挑战了"市场经济在纵向上,一定会促进权利和法律平等"的观点,暗示社会融入的进程滞后于经济社会发展水平,并呼唤打造一个更为包容、不同人群平等相处的和谐社会。

In the process of large － scale internal migration and rapid pace of urbanization in the past two decades，rural － to － urban young migrants，defined as those born after 1980 to parents with a rural hukou registration，have become one of the most vulnerable segments of the population who might be triply disadvantaged．Drawing on the 2005 National 1% Population Survey data，this paper explores the patterns，status，and associates of economic integration of young migrants with a rural hukou registration ( i．e．，rural － to － urban migrants) to the host society．Preliminary findings suggest that the level of economic integration of young migrants is rather low，particularly for those with a rural registration．Such phenomena challenge the notion that marketization necessarily promotes rights and legal equality in a linear fashion，and the potentially positive impact of migration on development might be compromised by institutional constraints ( e．g．，hukou) and local residents' discrimination towards outsiders，particularly the youths．It also suggests that the pace of socioeconomic integration is lagged behind socioeconomic development．

文章分析近十年流动人口住房来源的变动趋势、基本特点及其影响因素,重点关注更能体现“安居”的住房拥有和保障性住房情况。 分析结果表明,约七成流动人口租住私房,拥有住房的比例很低,租住公屋的比例极低;尽管流动人口群体内存在明显分层,但作为“外来人”,住房方面的共性大于差异性;流入地经济越发达、流动跨越的行政区域越大,拥有住房或租住公屋的概率越低。 可见,将流动人口全面纳入住房保障体系之路依旧举步维艰、任重道远。 在“住有所居”、“共享”发展等理念的引领下,未来需要真正从制度上消减流动人口安居之路上的障碍,扩大公租房对流动人口的覆盖率,减弱流动人口的“过客”感受,

The Chinese government,<span>central and local alike<span>,<span>has issued a number of documents<span>,<span>aiming to include migrants in the housing security system at the place of destination since <span>2010<span>. Have <span>these policies improved migrants?? living condition<span>? <span>Focusing on housing source<span>,<span>this paper describes its <span>changing trend in the past <span>10 <span>years<span>,<span>and explores its associates in <span>2014<span>. Analytic results show that over <span>70<span>% of migrants stay in rented house<span>; <span>the proportion of migrants who own house / apartment is very <span>low and those who have access to public housing is extremely low. While urban and rural <span>hukou <span>(<span>household registration<span>) <span>type makes a difference in owning / access to public housing and renting <span>housing<span>,<span>both rural-urban migrants and urban-urban migrants share more similarities than difference in <span>housing source<span>,<span>especially when they are compared to local residents. Such findings suggest that it still <span>has a long way to go to include migrants in the local housing security framework. In the context of <span>&ldquo;<span>Shared Development<span>&rdquo; <span>norms<span>,<span>more efforts should be devoted to alleviate barriers migrants encounter <span>in access to public housing and improve the ability of migrants to own their own houses / apartments.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>

妥善解决流动人口在流入城市的住房问题是实现流动人口市民化和提高新型城镇化发展质量的关键。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,揭示了流动人口的跨等级流动格局,并探讨了跨等级流动对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响。研究发现：① 流动人口以跨等级向上流动为主,其中向上跨三级、两级流动的比例较大;② 不同流出地的流动人口在流入城市的住房选择存在显著差异,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大;③ 流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口获得商品房的概率越低,随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反;④ 随着流动人口跨越城市等级的增加,其获得住房产权的概率降低,而租赁正规住房的可能性增大。研究结果有助于深化理解流动人口在流入城市住房选择的地理根源,对进一步优化面向流动人口的住房政策具有参考意义。

Access to homeownership profoundly affects floating population's social integration in the destination city and, in the long term, wealth accumulation. While housing differentiation within China's floating population has received increasing attention in the past two decades, the varied housing outcomes of the floating population experiencing different geographic mobility have been rarely investigated. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study employs logistic regression models to examine the association between migrants' hierarchical migration patterns and their housing outcomes in the destination city. The results show that the migration patterns of China's floating population are mostly featured by moving up along the urban hierarchy. There are significant disparities in housing outcomes among floating population with different origins and destinations. Migrants originating from cities with higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and average housing prices are more capable to afford a home in the destination city. Moving to cities with higher average housing prices implies fewer opportunities to purchase local commodity housing. As GDP per capita in destination cities increases, the probability of floating population purchasing commercial housing increases first but then decreases, while the probability of purchasing housing with incomplete property rights exhibits the opposite phenomenon. Furthermore, migrants making larger upward movements are less likely to own a home in the destination city, but more likely to rent formal housing. This study highlights the role of geographical mobility between different origins and destinations in affecting floating population's housing outcomes in the destination city and furthermore provides insight into understanding housing inequality.

在人口城城流动日益成为中国人口流动的重要形式背景下,基于人口普查数据和流动人口动态监测数据,分别探讨城城流动人口空间流动的结果、过程和成因,也就是探讨城城流动人口的空间分布、流动轨迹及形成机制。研究表明：城城流动人口倾向于向发达地区和大城市流动,同时在流动过程中会考虑空间的邻近;地区间经济发展水平、就业机会以及高水平教育医疗设施的差距是诱发城城人口流动的内在动力,而在实际的流动过程中会综合考虑由于空间摩擦而产生的金钱成本、心理压力等障碍;同时,已有城城流动人口存量会通过减少适应流入地的成本、提供相应的生活和就业信息等方式降低流动成本,刺激城城流动人口按照已有路径流动。借鉴西方发达国家人口流动的阶段划分,认为中国人口流动仍然处于从小城镇进入大城市的阶段。在这一时间节点上,依据人口流动的自然规律,鼓励人口向大城市流动,并通过发展副中心和卫星城等形式疏散中心区功能,推动城市郊区化发展才符合城市发展的自然逻辑。

The population flow between cities not only reflects the choice of the urban population who voted with their feet based on different development levels of urban economy, society, and public services, but also exerts a direct bearing on the success of rational and orderly movement of population, coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and the new-type urbanization strategies. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the spatial flowing laws and driving mechanism of urban-to-urban population flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of population and the new-type urbanization strategy. In the context of the increasing amounts of urban-to-urban floating population in China, this paper discusses the results, processes, and causes of the spatial mobility of floating population in urban areas based on data of population census and dynamic monitoring of floating population. In addition, it studies the spatial distribution, flow trajectory and forming mechanism of urban-to-urban floating population. This paper uses Arcgis to visualize the spatial distribution and main flow trajectories of inter-cities floating population, then uses regression equations to analyze the main factors driving population movement between cities. The results of this paper indicate that the urban-to-urban floating population tends to flow to developed regions and metropolises, during the process of which the proximity of destination is considered; gaps among regions in terms of economic development, employment opportunities, and high levels of education and medical facilities are the internal impetus to the flow of urban-to-urban floating population, while comprehensive consideration will be given to obstacles such as money costs and psychological pressure generated by space friction; at the same time, the existing urban-to-urban floating population will reduce the flow costs, and stimulate the flow of urban-to-urban floating population according to existing routes by reducing the cost of inflows, and providing living and employment information. According to the stage division of population flow in the developed countries, it is discovered that the population movement in China is still transforming from the stage where people move from small cities and towns to metropolises. At this time point, the government should encourage the flow of population to large cities according to the natural law of population movement, decentralize the functions of the central area through the development of sub-centers and satellite cities, and promote the development of urban suburbanization, which are in line with the natural logic of urban development.

基于中国东部地区6 个城市流动人口问卷调查,并在对已有人口迁移规律研究进行梳理的基础上,通过比较流动人口每一次迁移前一城市和后一城市的差异以及整个迁移过程中迁移速度、迁移距离、迁移城市规模、城市经济发展水平、区域路径等方面的变化趋势,分析流动人口进入城市后在城市间横向迁移的规律和特点。研究发现:东部地区流动人口城市间横向迁移不仅速度快,城市平均居留时间短,而且在多次迁移过程中迁移流向、迁移的空间轨迹方面呈现出更为复杂的特点:随着迁移次数的增加,迁移距离增加,遵循由近及远的同时回流现象明显;随着迁移次数的增加,由收入较高城市流向收入较低城市的比例以及流向中等城市的比例显著提高,不存在由大到小的递补特征;在相邻城市或相同经济区范围内多次往返迁移现象明显。

Based on a survey in six cities of eastern China and theory of migration, this article compares current situation with the patterns of Chinese migration in the past decades, and explores certain important characteristics and law of the migration process of floating population, such as migration frequency, distance, urban scale, urban development level and spatial path between origin and destination cities in each migration and in an entire migration process. Results show that floating population in eastern China migrates frequently across cities, and stays for a short period averagely after leaving their rural homes. Its movement patterns are complex in terms of migration direction and spatial trajectory, which indicates more floating population moved transprovincially to a longer distance with more times of migration, and as the same time more floating population returns to cities in hometown provinces. More and more migrants tend to move to middle-sized and low-income cities along with movements, though flows to big-sized cities, and high-income cities are still the mainstream. These findings show that floating population becomes more rational in choosing their destination cities. Cities in home provinces, and other cities in current host provinces become the transit places to destination cities, and floating population is inclined to move back and forward between several cities in a certain economic region.

流动人口居留意愿的影响因素往往存在显著的空间分异特征,然而既有研究对此关注较少。基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测数据,运用半参数地理加权回归（SGWR）模型,结合k均值聚类法,对中国城市流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征展开研究。结论如下：① 流动人口居留意愿主要受流动人口群体自身特征的影响,受流入地的影响相对较弱;② 社会经济因素与流动人口居留意愿的关系紧密,人口、家庭及流动特征因素同样产生影响,收入、婚姻、跨省流动等因素对流动人口居留意愿产生抑制作用,而住房支出、参保率、子女个数等因素则产生促进作用;③ 各影响因素总体上呈现带状的空间分异模式,可概括为&#x0201C;E-W&#x0201D;&#x0201C;N-S&#x0201D;&#x0201C;NE-SW&#x0201D;&#x0201C;SE-NW&#x0201D;4种。民族、家庭等因素的正向影响自北向南递减,参保率、未婚率、二产就业等因素的影响自西北向东南递减,子女个数及人均GDP的影响自东北向西南递减。东部经济较发达地区高收入流动人口的居留意愿相对更弱,华南地区住房支出较高的流动人口居留意愿相对更强。④ 全国可划分为四大影响区,其中,华北地区、华中地区、华东地区受多因素共同影响;西北地区及部分西南地区主要受人口及社会因素的影响;东北三省及内蒙古东部地区主要受经济及家庭因素的影响;华南地区及部分中、东、西南部地区,除住房支出外,受大部分因素的影响相对最小。最后,本文对中国流动人口的服务与管理提出相应建议。

It is demonstrated that the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention are different among geographic units, which seems to be ignored by previous researches. Based on the data from the 2015 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey (CMDS) and related statistics, this article uses the Semiparametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model and k-means cluster method to examine the spatial variation of the factors influencing floating population's settlement intention in 282 prefecture- and provincial- level cites of China. Results provide the following conclusions. (1) The settlement intention of urban floating population is mainly influenced by the floating population characteristics instead of the destination characteristics. (2) Social and economic factors are closely related to the floating population's settlement intention. Meanwhile, the demographic, family and mobility factors exert a significant impact on such an intention. To be specific, there exists an inhibitory effect on floating population's settlement intention in factors such as income, marriage, and cross provincial mobility. However, housing expenditure, participation rate, number of children and other factors can effectively contribute to such intention. (3) Zonal spatial differentiation patterns of the influencing factors' coefficients are illustrated by the SGWR model, which can be further divided into four categories ("E-W", "N-S", "NE-SW" and "SE-NW"): The positive influences of ethnic and family factors are decreasing from the northern to southern regions, while the influence of employment ratio in the secondary industry is declining from the northwest to the southeast regions, and the impacts of factors such as the number of children and per capita GDP are diminishing from the northeast to the southwest regions. In eastern developed areas, the settlement intention of floating population with higher income is comparatively lower, while migrants with higher housing expenditure in southern China have a stronger intention to settle down. (4) Four influencing zones are detected by the k-means method: Floating population's settlement intention in North China, Central China and East China is significantly affected by multiple factors; In the northwest region and part of the southwest region, migrants' settlement intention is mainly influenced by demographic and social factors; The northeast region and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia's floating population's willingness to stay is mainly related to economic and family factors; Apart from housing expenditure, coefficients of other factors are relatively small in southern China and part of the central, eastern and southwestern regions. Additionally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the service and management of the floating population in China.

流动人口是中国城镇化进程的重要参与者,加强其定居意愿特征分析对制定中国新型城镇化发展政策具有重要参考价值。基于中国40个主要城市的宜居城市问卷调查数据,运用描述统计和地理探测器方法,揭示中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知特征及其对定居意愿的影响。研究结果表明：①中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知评价分异明显,呈现出“公共服务设施便利性>自然环境舒适性>社会人文环境舒适性>环境健康性>交通便捷性>城市安全性”的递减特征;②中国流动人口的公共服务设施便利性、社会人文环境舒适性、环境健康性和城市安全性等4个维度城市宜居性感知对其定居意愿具有显著影响,且影响强度依次递减,但二者关系并不完全呈简单的线性特征。③相对他人收入满意度、生活满意度、住房价格感知和地理区位等参照变量,以及年龄、性别和职业等个体与家庭属性也是影响中国流动人口定居意愿的重要因素。

Migrants play an important role in the process of China's urbanization. Therefore, understanding the determinants of their settlement intention is of great importance for making national new urbanization policies. Drawing on the livable cities survey conducted in 40 major cities in China, descriptive statistics and geographical detector methods were employed to examine the characteristics of migrants' urban livability perception and its effects on their settlement intention, respectively. The results show that: (1) Migrants' urban livability perception differs greatly between livability indicators—the ranking of importance is convenience of access to public facilities > comfort of natural environment > comfort of social environment > environmental health > convenience of transportation > security in the city. (2) Four dimensions of migrants' urban livability perception, including convenience of access to public facilities, comfort of social environment, environmental health, and security in the city, have significant effects on settlement intention with decreasing weights, but the correlations are not always linear. (3) Selected control variables, including migrants' relative income satisfaction, life satisfaction, perceived housing price, and geographic locations, and individual and family attributes such as age, gender, and occupation, also exert significant effects on settlement intention.