新冠肺炎疫情是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大危机,给世界带来巨大的冲击,包括人们的心理和生活、经济增长与就业、国家治理及世界治理等。这些影响使很多学者、评论家、大众、企业家乃至政府官员产生了非常悲观的情绪,舆论中不乏经济全球化将终结、全球供应链将大规模调整、世界治理格局将彻底改变等言论。本文通过建立“全球化的三角结构”剖析了经济全球化的动力机制,并结合疫情对世界的主要影响,试图揭示后疫情时代经济全球化的走势。我们认为,资本的“空间出路”、技术的“时空压缩”和国家的开放程度是驱动经济全球化的三个基本力量,这三者的变化及其相互作用结果影响着全球化进程。从动力机制看,全球化是一个没有终点且不断变化的历史过程,它不会倒退,而是波动。过去半个世纪以来,世界各国已经被全球化紧密地联系在一起,相互脱钩的代价极其昂贵,没有国家会选择完全脱钩。所谓的逆全球化现象,是全球化发展过程中世界格局变化及各国应对策略调整的结果。新冠肺炎疫情并不能影响全球化的资本和技术驱动力,但是可能影响国家的开放程度。如果疫情持续时间不是很长,经济全球化将很快会回归原有的发展轨迹,继续进行调整。各国也将继续围绕经济全球化进行斗争、妥协、再斗争,直至形成一个相对稳定的状态。因此,经济全球化可能因为应对疫情而踩下急刹车,甚至暂退半步,但很快将继续前行,向着“包容性全球化”的方向发展。

The COVID-19 pandemic is considered the biggest crisis confronted with the world after the Second World War, which has brought huge impacts on people’s health and daily life, economic growth and employment as well as national and international governance. Increasing pessimism is buzzing among scholars, critics, entrepreneurs, the mass and even government officials, and views like the end of economic globalization, large-scale spatial restructuring of global supply chains and fundamental change of the world economic governance structure are becoming prevailing on the media. This paper tries to address the issue of the development trend of economic globalization in the post-pandemic era by developing a framework of globalization’s Triangle Structure to understand its dynamics in addition to a summary of the on-going impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the spatial fix of capital accumulation, time-space compression led by technological advance and openness of nations are the three major drivers of economic globalization, and the changes and interactions of these three drivers decide the development trend of economic globalization. From such a dynamic viewpoint, economic globalization is an ever-changing integration process without an end but constant fluctuations. The cost of decoupling of nations from globalization would be very huge because they have been highly integrated by global production networks and trade networks and no nation can afford a complete decoupling. The so-called de-globalization phenomena are just short-term adjusting strategies of nations to cope with power reconfigurations brought by economic globalization. The pandemic will have little impacts, or probably nothing, on the spatial fix of capital accumulation and time-space compression led by technological advance, but may temporarily influence some nations' openness. If the pandemic does not last long, economic globalization will resume from the shock soon after the world goes back to normal, and develop and restructure according to its own dynamics. Thus, we tend to believe the pandemic at most slams the brake of globalization and would not be able to put it into reverse. Economic globalization will not stop or reverse, but develop towards a more inclusive stage.

In previous researches, the framework of global production network was established based on free trade and neo-liberalism. However, the globe is not flat. Trade barriers broadly exist and deeply influence the economic globalization. In this article, we explore the issue of trade barriers and its impacts on global production networks. We try to sketch a theoretical interpretation of the trading arrangements under trade barriers, and illustrate the argument with material gathered during our recent investigations into the production networks that connect the bicycle industry in China with Canada. Our research shows that: (1) with trade barriers, the traditional network pattern organized by producers and distributors has changed. Third parties, including trade agency, trade show, bank, and so on, took active part in the trading process and became one of the important poles of the global production networks. (2) Originally, the very metaphor of a network seems to allow more flexibility than a chain, although even so, the breaking of connections in a network often viewed as unfortunate in previous research. However, in our research, we found that the production networks linkage are very flexible. The linkages amongst the very actors in the trading systems are frequently negotiated and switched. At the same time, quality control and labor welfare have become more important than cost control. (3) The spatial organization of the global production network shows differently in two aspects. On one hand, the producers are more labor-oriented and market-oriented than before. On the other hand, the third parties intend to gather along financial clusters and services clusters.

金融危机时期,中国区域出口韧性表现出危机第一阶段(2008—2009年)的抵抗力、危机第二阶段(2009—2011年)的恢复力、产品结构转换提升力。论文构建了区域-产品层面的区域出口贸易韧性指标,通过区域出口贸易额、产品结构等不同层面刻画了金融危机后各区域抵抗力、恢复力的空间差异。实证研究表明：相关多样化产业结构不仅在短期可以增强区域产品的抵抗力,在长期还可以提高区域产品的恢复力并且助推区域产品实现结构升级;应急型税收政策短期内一定程度上可以有效缓解危机冲击,但其影响范围及作用时间均是有限的;外企出口占比高的区域产品对区域产品结构升级影响不明显,但加工贸易方式推动了区域产品在危机中的结构升级。

After the global financial crisis, the resilience of China's regional exports is reflected in three stages: resistance in the first stage of the crisis (2008-2009), resilience in the second stage of the crisis (2009-2011), and promotion in product structure transformation after the crisis. This study constructed a regional export trade resilience index at the regional-product level, and described the spatial differences of regional resilience and resilience after the financial crisis with regard to regional export trade volume and product structure. The results of the regional-product level econometric model show that the diversification of related industrial structure not only can enhance the resistance of regional products in the short run, but also can improve the resilience of regional products in the long run, and further promote the upgrading of regional product structure. Emergency tax policy can effectively alleviate the impact of crisis in the short term, but its impact is limited and does not last; regional products with high export proportion of foreign enterprises have little effect on the upgrading of regional product structure, but processing trade promotes the upgrading of regional product structure in the crisis.

区域韧性在中国已成为新兴研究热点,然而国内学者依然将韧性研究局限于均衡论的认识论范畴内。本文首先通过回顾国际最新研究动态从认识论层面辨析均衡论和演化论这两种韧性认知视角的本质区别,由此介绍西方经济韧性的演化论转向。然后从宏观和微观角度阐述演化论视角下区域韧性的形成机制,介绍相关定量测度方法;在此基础上形成系统的西方最新有关研究经济韧性的理论分析框架。未来研究应该在演化论视角基础上强化演化经济地理、创新地理(区域知识网络)和区域韧性这三个研究分支的联系,还应该加强产业历史演化过程的案例研究,并利用专利数据等开放数据源构建产业空间基础数据库。

Regional resilience has become a trendy research branch. However, traditional Chinese research of resilience had been limited within the equilibrium-based epistemology. This article, based on a review of international literature, clarifies different definitions of economic resilience: engineering resilience, ecological resilience, and evolutionary resilience. The article rejects equilibrium-based epistemology of resilience and argues instead the evolutionary perspective. Then, it introduces the formation mechanism of economic resilience from macro and micro aspects; and introduces quantitative measurement of network analysis. This article concludes that resilience should be extended to the economic field and evolutionary-based perspective. Chinese researchers should notice connections between three research branches — namely evolutionary economic geography, innovation geography, and regional resilience. Future research should focus on case studies of urban and regional economies. They should also explore the existing open patent data source to establish the quantitative database of industry space.

This paper examines the resilience of British cities to major economic shocks. Using a novel data set for 85 cities, it analyses their resistance to and recovery from the last four major recessions, over the period 1971 to 2015. It reveals a distinct shift in the relation between resistance and recovery between these shocks, as well as major differences between northern and southern cities. Some possible factors shaping these patterns are explored, and tentative estimates of the likely impact of the Brexit shock (Britain's withdrawal from the European Union) are also provided. A key implication is that differences in resilience to major shocks can contribute to the long-run growth paths of cities.

新常态背景下,东北地区与其他区域相比经济下行明显,适应能力较差,即区域经济韧性较弱。产业和企业是区域宏观经济的中微观载体,有助于揭示区域宏观经济韧性的中微观特征,却鲜少有研究。本文从宏观经济增量、中观产业增量及结构变化和微观企业空间动态,分析了1978年以来沈阳市经济韧性的特征。研究发现：① 在全国经济周期影响下,沈阳市经济韧性的变化呈现出“弱—强—弱”的周期性特征,主要是受第二产业韧性的波动变化影响。以支柱产业演替为代表的新老路径产业的韧性变化差异明显,其中老路径产业中机械产业韧性的“强—弱”变化对第二产业的韧性变化影响较大,其韧性减弱主要是由自身竞争力不足造成的。② 在全国经济“增速换挡”放缓的影响下,企业存活率的结果表明,老路径产业企业的韧性强于新路径产业企业的韧性;除食品产业外,其余产业老企业的韧性都强于新企业的韧性。另外初步发现,老路径产业和新路径产业中的电子等技术密集型制造业的新进入企业表现出对中心城区的“空间”路径依赖性,“空间集聚”对企业存活存在正向积极作用。

In the era of China's New Normal, compared with other regions in China, the Northeast region has been in obvious economic downturn featured by its weak adaption, or in other words, weak regional economic resilience. However, there is a lack of study on how middle or micro economic sectors, particularly industries and enterprises could shape the resilience level of regional macro economy. This paper, therefore, tries to fill this gap by analyzing the multi-level characteristics of Shenyang's economic resilience since 1978, with regard to its economic growth, industrial restructuring, and enterprise spatial dynamics. We found that affected by China's development status, resilience level of Shenyang's economy shows a weak-strong-weak cycle, driven by the fluctuation of its secondary industry. There are obvious differences in the resilience level of old and new paths in Shenyang. In particular, due to its low competitiveness, the resilience level of mechanical industry in old paths has weakened and imposed greater impacts on secondary industry. Meanwhile, the survival rate of old and new enterprises indicates that the resilience level of old paths enterprises is stronger than that of the new paths ones under the context of national economy slowing down; except for enterprises in food industry, the resilience level of old enterprises is stronger than that of the new ones. Moreover, this research indicates that new enterprises of technology-intensive industry such as the old paths and the electronic industry in new paths show a spatial path dependence of city center, and spatial agglomeration has positive effects on enterprises' survival.

The objective of this paper is to critically review contemporary insights derived from studies that focus on relatedness. A well-established body of literature has identified three approaches for measuring relatedness, those based on co-occurrence matrices, industrial hierarchy and resource similarity. From these measures, several authors have begun developing relational networks to capture the branching capabilities of products, industries, technologies and skills. Thereafter the present contribution then shifts from analysing 'what is' and begins considering what 'could be'? It argues that the concept of relatedness lies at the heart of deconstructing issues of unrelated diversification and smart specialisation.

当前区域经济韧性的测度研究的测度维度较为单一地聚焦在GDP之上,缺乏揭示韧性在其它经济指标上的表现;同时过于注重区域内因素,忽略了外向联系的影响。因此,本研究以粤港澳大湾区为例,选择5个经济指标对大湾区的经济韧性进行多维度测算,并借助关系经济地理学理论视角,对区域内部差异的形成原因给予解释。主要得到三个结论：第一,区域的经济韧性难以从单一维度来判定,多维度指标所揭示的经济韧性存在显著差异,其中GDP所表现出来的区域经济韧性较为保守,而就业指标所表现出来的经济韧性变动较大。第二,大湾区内部各城市的经济韧性存在显著差异,这些差异与区位和GDP规模无显著关系,而与其产业经济结构和嵌入全球生产网络方式有显著关系。第三,湾区城市在经济韧性表现的差异可以用战略耦合来进行初步解释,深圳因自主耦合而经济韧性表现最佳,佛山和广州次之,香港和澳门因以依附耦合的方式嵌入全球金融和酒店网络,因而经济韧性相对较差。本文为经济韧性研究提供了大湾区案例和新的分析视角,推动了关系经济地理学在经济韧性研究中的应用。本文建议未来要重视基于定性方法的经济韧性研究。

从经济维持性和恢复性2个方面定量化分析中国31省（市）（未包含港澳台数据）应对1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的经济韧性特征,并对其主要影响因素进行了研究。结果发现：① 在亚洲金融危机中,西部地区的经济维持性较高,中部地区的经济维持性普遍较低;经济恢复性较高的省市主要集中在中部地区,而东部和西部地区经济恢复性较低,经济维持性和经济恢复性呈现一定的负相关。② 各省（市）应对全球金融危机的经济维持性普遍较高,经济维持性较低的区域主要分在东部沿海区域和沿长江经济带地区,而经济维持性较高的区域主要集中在西部地区。③ 在亚洲金融危机中,第二产业表现出了较强的经济韧性,而在全球金融危机中第三产业经济韧性较好。④ 影响2次经济危机中韧性能力的主要因素是不同的,区位条件、人均固定资产投资额和人均GDP的解释力较强,但在2次经济周期中的作用方向不同。

This article quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of 31 provinces of China in terms of resistance and recoverability during two economic crises: the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, it analyzes the main factors that affected regional resilience. There are three main findings. Firstly, in the first economic cycle, the economic resistance in western region was relatively high, and the central region was low; the provinces with high economic recoverability were mainly concentrated in the central region, while those in the eastern and western regions were lower, with economic resistance and recoverability showing a certain negative correlation. All regions in second economic cycle demonstrated well resistance; those with low economic resistance were mainly located in the eastern coastal areas and along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Thirdly, the secondary industry was stronger than the tertiary industry in terms of economic resilience during the first economic cycle, while the situation was different in the second economic cycle. Finally, the influential factors affecting economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles; location advantage, per capita fixed asset investment and per capita GDP had strong explanatory power on economic resilience, but the direction of action in the two economic cycles was different.

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,不同区域在本轮危机中表现出不同程度的适应能力,即各地区域经济弹性大小不一。但学术界对到底什么因素影响区域经济弹性没有定论。本文以浙江省和江苏省为案例,采用统计年鉴、国家知识产权局和课题组调研数据,通过建立二元logistic回归模型对区域经济弹性的影响因素进行定量分析与定性解释。研究发现：①创新水平越高、非相关多样性越强及中小企业占比越大的区域越容易最小化甚至消除危机带来的损失;②财政支出较大、外贸依存度较高的区域抵御经济风险的能力较弱,更易受危机干扰;③相关多样性与区域经济弹性无显著关系。研究表明,财政支出对经济弹性与区域发展的影响不能一概而论,应充分考虑其支出结构特点;要正确认识中小企业占比对区域经济弹性的显著正向影响。为此,政府应鼓励创新,增加对科技研发的投入;注重产业多样化发展,促进产业转型升级;加大对中小企业的扶持,使中小企业自身的优势得以发挥;同时,优化财政支出结构,并健全鼓励消费机制以扩大内需。

Regions show different economic resilience after the 2008 financial crisis. However, there is no agreement on what factors impact regional economic resilience. In this study, we took Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces as an example and established a binary logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors of regional economic resilience. Based on quantitative and qualitative analyses, we found that: (1) Regions with a higher level of innovation and a higher extent of unrelated variety and a larger proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) tended to have better resilience in the economic crisis. (2) Regions with a large amount of financial expenditure and a stronger dependence on international trade showed a relatively weak ability to resist crisis. (3) Related variety had limited influences on regional economic resilience. This study points out that the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic resilience and regional development cannot be generalized. We should give full considerations to the structure of fiscal expenditure. Moreover, it is necessary to pay more attention to regional environment and institutions to fully understand the positive influence of the proportion of SMEs on regional economic resilience. Local governments should encourage innovation and increase investment in research and development, develop a diversified industrial structure, provide more support to SMEs, and optimize fiscal expenditure structure.

突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延肆虐,国家间和区域间的人员、货物流动阻滞,对全球生产网络带来了巨大冲击。受此影响,涉外企业纷纷出现了与国际市场、供应链、劳动力、金融资本之间的短暂割裂。在此外部冲击面前,基于全球经济深度链接的战略耦合理论,无法有效解释全球生产网络出现的被动性、暂时性、突发性的耦合断裂。以江苏省昆山市为例,通过深入访谈和调研,重点研究地方政府能动性在维系战略耦合联系中的作用机制。研究发现,昆山政府以本地产业链供应链信息的系统掌握为基础,综合运用协调整合、政策支撑、资源调配等能力,修复导致耦合断裂的环节或重建新耦合。本文提出外部冲击型耦合断裂这一概念,丰富拓展了对战略耦合动态性的认识。其次,本文深化了对政府-全球生产网络互动联结的理解,讨论了地方政府在维系战略耦合联系中的能动性作用和局限性。

Since 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge impacts on people's health and daily life, as well as economic development and employment worldwide. People were quarantined, transportation was blocked, and borders were closed. As a result of the pandemic, global production networks (GPNs), which organize production in a highly decentralized form and in a global scale, have been negatively affected to the greatest extent. This phenomenon demonstrates the temporary, shock-driven discontinuities and ruptures of strategic couplings in GPNs, which tend to be relatively overlooked in the existing GPN literature. In China, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out earliest, a large number of firms and factories were shut down and its economy once came to a standstill. However, China's economy soon recovered. This article argues that the rapid recovery has largely been driven by the strong, active and effective interventions of Chinese government actors at various levels, including the Chinese central as well as local and regional governments. This article uses the case of Kunshan in Jiangsu province as a case study to illustrate how the local government in particular played key roles in enabling and facilitating the restoration of coupling ruptures. Kunshan is highly plugged into GPNs, with a high level of foreign direct investments and exports. As such, it was heavily affected by the global pandemic initially. Specifically, this article illustrates four inter-connected problems that globally-plugged firms tended to face under the economic shock caused by the pandemic, that is, in terms of their access to the market, suppliers, labour, and finance. This article then shows how the local government of Kunshan utilized and mobilized the unique power and resources, namely, local industrial information, coordinating capacity, policy tools, and resource allocation capacity, to help firms overcome such challenges and in turn enabled and facilitated Kunshan's recovery from coupling ruptures. However, this article demonstrates the limitations of the local government alone in mediating crisis-driven coupling ruptures.