HE Bin, WU Jianjun, LV Aifeng . New Advances in Agricultural Drought Risk Study[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010 , 29(5) : 557 -564 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.05.007

[1] UNISDR. Briefing Note 01: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, 2008.

[2] 张继权, 冈田宪夫, 多多纳裕一. 综合自然灾害风险管理: 全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(1): 29-37.

[3] Wilhite D A, Hayes M J, Knutson C, et al. Planning for drought: Moving from crisis to risk management. Water Resour. Assoc., 2000, 36(4): 697-710.

[4] 钱正安, 吴统文, 宋敏红, 等. 干旱和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(1): 28-38.

[5] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004, 5: 1117-1130.

[6] IPCC. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change, working group Ⅱ report. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[7] IPCC. Climate change 2007: Impacts adaptation and vulnerability,working group II report. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[8] 马宗晋. 中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论). 北京: 科学出版杜, 1994.

[9] Hagman G. Prevention better than cure. Report on Human and Environmental Disasters in the Third World. Stockholm, Sweden: Swedish Red Cross, 1984.

[10] Changnon S A, Jr. Detecting Drought Conditions in Illinois. Champaign: Illinois State Water Survey, 1987.

[11] Knutson C, Hayes M, Phillips T. How to Reduce Drought Risk. Wisconsin, Nebraska: Western Drought Coordination Council, 1998.

[12] Wilhite D A. Drought. Encyclopedia of Earth System Science, 1992, 2: 81-92.

[13] Palmer W C. Meteorological drought US. Weather Bureau Research Paper, 1965: 45-58.

[14] Kulshreshtha S N, Klein K K. Agricultral drought impact evaluation model: A systems approach. Agricultural System, 1989, 30(1): 81-96.

[15] Kumar V, Panu U. Predictive assessment of severity of agricultural droughts based on agro-climatic factors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1997, 33(6): 1255-1264.

[16] Nullet D, Giambelluca T W. Risk analysis of seasonal agricultural drought on low Pacific islands. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1988, 42(2-3): 229-239.

[17] 苏桂武, 高庆华. 自然灾害风险的分析要素. 地学前缘, 2003, 10(特刊): 272-278.

[18] Lowrance W W. Of Acceptable Risk. Los Altos: Wilham Kaufmann, 1976.

[19] Rescher N. Risk: A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Management. London: University Press of America, 1983.

[20] Adams J. Risk. London: UCL Press, 1995.

[21] Banks E. Catastrophic Risk Analysis and Management. Chichester: Wiley Finance, 2005.

[22] 史陪军. 再论灾害研究的理论与实践. 自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(4): 6-17.

[23] UNDRO. Mitigating natural disasters, phenomena, effects and options. A manual for policy makers and planners. New York, UNDRO,1991.

[24] Alexander D. Confronting Catastrophe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

[25] Mechler R. Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing Countries. Karlsruhe: Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft GmbH, 2004.

[26] Petak W J, Atkisson A. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy. Spinger-Vezlag New York Lnc., 1982.

[27] 周寅康. 自然灾害风险评价初步研究. 自然灾害学报, 1995, 4(1): 6-11.

[28] 黄崇福. 自然灾害风险分析的基本原理. 自然灾害学报, 1999, 8(2): 21-30.

[29] Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I, et al. At risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London, New York: Routledge, 1994.

[30] Downing T E, Gawith M J, Olsthoorn A A, et al. Introduction climate change and risk//Downing T E, Olsthoorn A J, Tol R S J. London: Routledege, 1999: 1-18.

[31] Downing T E, Bakker K. Drought discourse and vulnerability//Wilhite D A. Drought: A Global Assessment, Natural Hazards and Disasters Series. London: Routledge, 2000.

[32] Wilhite D A. Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions//Wilhite D A. Drought: A Global Assessment. New York: Routledge, 2000: 1-18.

[33] Sonamez F K, Komuscu A U, Erkan A, et al. An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards, 2005, 35: 243-264.

[34] Shahid S, Behrawan H. Drought risk assessment in the west part of Bangladesh. Nat Hazard, 2008, 46（3）: 391-413.

[35] Hayes M J, Wilhelmi O V, Knutson C L. Reducing drought risk: bridging theory and practice. Natural Hazard Review, 2004, 5(2): 106-113.

[36] McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales//Proc. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993, 179-184, 17-22 January, Anaheim, CA.Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society.

[37] 王劲峰. 中国自然灾害影响评价方法研究. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1993: 58-86.

[38] Palmer W C. Meteorological drought US. Weather Bureau Research Paper, 1965: 45-58.

[39] Palmer W C. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index. Weatherwise, 1968, 21: 156-161.

[40] Ohlsson I. Water conflict and social resource scarcity. Physics and Chemistry of The Earth(B), 2000, 25(3): 213-220.

[41] 朱琳, 叶殿秀, 陈建文, 等. 陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(2): 201-206.

[42] 商彦蕊. 农业旱灾风险与脆弱性评估及其相关关系的建立. 河北师范大学学报, 1999, 23(3): 420-428.

[43] 张德二, 刘传志. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980-1992年). 气象, 1993, 19(11): 41-45.

[44] 李克让, 尹思明, 沙万英. 中国现代干旱灾害的时空特征. 地理研究, 1996, 15(3): 6-15.

[45] 潘耀忠, 龚道益, 王平. 中国近40年旱灾时空格局分析. 北京师范大学学报, 1996, 32(1): 138-143.

[46] 王静爱, 孙恒, 徐伟, 等. 近50年中国旱灾的时空变化. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(2): 1-6.

[47] Keenan S P, Krannich R S. The social context of perceived drought vulnerability. Rural Sociol, 1997, 62(1): 69-88.

[48] Kates R W. The interaction of climate and society//Kates R W, Ausubel J H, Berberian M. Climate impact assessment: Studies of the interaction of climate and society. Chichester: Wiley,1985.

[49] Wilhelmi O V, Wilhite D A. Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Nat Hazards, 2002, 25(1): 37-58.

[50] Turner B, Kasperson R E, Matson P A, et al. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2003, 100(14): 8074-8079.

[51] 刘兰芳, 刘盛和, 刘沛林, 等. 湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综 合分析与定量评价. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(4): 78-83.

[52] Ribot J C. Introduction: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Vulnerability: Moving ForwardRibot by Looking Back//Ribot J C, Magalhaes A R, Panagides S S. Climate Variability: Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

[53] 王静爱, 商彦蕊, 苏筠, 等. 中国农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断与区域可持续发展. 北京师范大学学报, 2005,(3): 130-137.

[54] Betty. Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. Disater. The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management, 1999, 23(1): 1-18.

[55] 商彦蕊. 河北省农业旱灾脆弱性动态变化的成因分析. 自然灾害学报, 2000, 9(1): 40-46.

[56] 刘兰芳, 关欣, 唐云松. 农业旱灾脆弱性评价及生态减灾研究: 以湖南省衡阳市为例. 水土保持通报, 2005, 25(2): 69-73.

[57] Quiring S M, Papakryiakou T N. An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2003, 118(1-2): 49-62.

[58] Starr T B, Kostrow P I. The response of spring wheat yield to anomalous climate sequences in the Unite States. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1978, 17(8): 1101-1115.

[59] Thompson L M. Effects of changes in climate and weather variability on the yields of corn and soybeans. Journal of Production Agriculture, 1988, 1(1): 20-27.

[60] Walker G K. Model for operational forecasting of western Canada wheat yield. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1989, 44(3-4): 339-351.

[61] Mjelde J W, Penson Jr J B. Dynamic aspects of the impact of the use of perfect climate forecasts in the corn belt region. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 39(1): 67-79.

[62] Hong Wu, Wilhit D A. An operational agricultural drought risk assessment model for Nebraska, USA. Natural Hazards, 2004, 33(1): 1-21.

[63] 任鲁川. 区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展. 地球科学进展, 1999, 14(3): 242-246.

[64] 黄崇福, 刘新立, 周国贤, 等. 以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险平评估方法. 自然灾害学报, 1998, 7(2): 1-9.

[65] Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H. Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Water Resour Manage, 2007, 21(5): 821-833.

[66] 王晓红, 乔云峰, 沈容开, 等. 灌区干旱风险评估模型研究. 水科学进展, 2004, 15(1): 77-81.

[67] 王石立, 娄秀荣. 华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估的初步研究. 自然灾害学报, 1997, 6(3): 63-68