Original Articles

Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Urban Planning Implementation

  • 1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. Beijing Institute of Architectural Design, Beijing 100045, China;
    3. College of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;
    4. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA;
    5. School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan

Received date: 2010-11-01

  Revised date: 2011-03-01

  Online published: 2011-08-25


Urban planning implementation evaluation (UPIE) has attracted great attention from the urban planning profession as well as local governments in recent years. The existing literature mainly focuses on the conformity approach and does not take careful account into the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the urban planning implementation effectiveness. Moreover, previous studies fail to distinguish the effects of the urban planning from other institutional forces as well as the market forces on urban expansion. Therefore, we introduce a spatio-temporal dynamic approach for UPIE using logistic regression to evaluate the effectiveness of the urban planning on urban expansion. The empirical research is conducted in the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA) by the analysis of five versions of the city master plans issued in 1958, 1973, 1982, 1992 and 2004 respectively. According to the temporal phases of implementing the plans, five phases are divided from 1947 to 2008 to evaluate the temporal dynamics of urban plans and the effectiveness of other factors. In addition, the effectiveness of the 2004 City Master Plan of the 16 districts of the BMA is estimated respectively to identify the spatial variations of the planning implementation. The results show that the effectiveness of urban planning increases over time, and is significantly stronger in remote areas than in the central city and sub-urban areas.

Cite this article

LONG Ying, HAN Haoying, GU Yizhen, SHEN Zhengjiang, MAO Qizhi . Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Urban Planning Implementation[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2011 , 30(8) : 967 -977 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.08.003


[1] 吕晓蓓, 伍炜. 城市规划实施评价机制初探. 城市规划, 2006, 30(11): 41-45.

[2] Talen E. Do plans get implemented? A review of evaluation in planning. Journal of Planning Literature, 1996, 10 (3): 248-259.

[3] 孙施文, 周宇. 城市规划实施评价的理论与方法. 城市规划汇刊, 2003(2): 15-20.

[4] Alexander E R, Faludi A. Planning and plan implementation - notes on evaluation criteria. Environment and Planning B: Planning & Design, 1989, 16(2): 127-140.

[5] Talen E. After the plans: Methods to evaluate the implementation success of plans. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 1996, 16(2): 79-91.

[6] Talen E. Success, failure, and conformance: An alternative approach to planning evaluation. Environment and Planning B: Planning & Design, 1997, 24(4): 573-587.

[7] Laurian L, Day M, Berke P, et al. Evaluating plan implementation: A conformance-based methodology. Journal of the American Planning Association, 2004, 70(4): 471-480

[8] Brody S D, Highfield W E. Does planning work? Testing the implementation of local environmental planning in Florida. Journal of the American Planning Association, 2005, 71(2): 159-175.

[9] Berke P, Backhurst M, Day M, et al. What makes plan implementation successful? An evaluation of local plans and implementation practices in New Zealand. Environment and Planning B, 2006, 33(4): 581-600.

[10] Brody S D, Highfield W E, Thornton S. Planning at the urban fringe: An examination of the factors influencing nonconforming development patterns in southern Florida. Environment and Planning B, 2006, 33(1): 75-96.

[11] 田莉, 吕传廷, 沈体雁. 城市总体规划实施评价的理论与实证研究: 以广州市总体规划(2001-2010 年)为例. 城市规划学刊, 2008, (5) 90-96.

[12] Han H, Lai S, Dang A, et al. Effectiveness of urban construction boundaries in Beijing: An assessment. Journal of Zhejiang University: Science A, 2009, 10(9): 1285-1295.

[13] Alonso W. Location and Land Use: Towards a General Theory of Land Rent. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964.

[14] 吴良镛. 人居环境科学导论. 北京: 中国建筑工业出版社, 2001.

[15] Butler R W H. A structural analysis of the Moine Thrust zone between Loch Eriboll and Foinaven NW Scotland. Journal of Structural Geology, 1982, 4(1): 19-29.

[16] Brueckner J K, Fansler D A. The economics of urban sprawl: Theory and evidence on the spatial sizes of cities. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1983, 65(3): 479-482.

[17] McGrath D T. More evidence on the spatial scale of cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 2005, 58(1): 1-10.

[18] Ke S Z, He M, Song Y. Economic determinants of urban spatial scale: Chinese cities in transition. Working paper, 2006.

[19] Muller M R, Middleton J. A markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara region, Ontario, Canada. Landscape Ecology, 1994, 9(2): 151-157.

[20] Li X, Yeh A G O. Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2002, 16(4): 323-343.

[21] Pajanowski B C, Brown D G, Shellito B A, et al. Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: a land transformation model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2002, 26(6): 553-575.

[22] Wu F. Calibration of stochastic cellular automata: The application to rural-urban land conversions. International journal of Geographical Information Science, 2002, 16 (8): 795-818.

[23] Cheng J, Masser I. Urban growth modeling: A case study of Wuhan City, PR China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2003, 62(4): 199-217.

[24] Hu Z, Lo C P. Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2007, 31(6): 667-688.

[25] Batty M, Couclelis H, Eichen M. Urban systems as cellular automata. Environment and Planning B, 1997, 24(2): 159-164.

[26] Yeh A G O, Li X. A constrained CA model for the simulation and planning of sustainable urban forms by using GIS. Environment and Planning B, 2001, 28(5): 733-753.

[27] Dietzel C, Clarke K. The effect of disaggregating land use categories in cellular automata during model calibration and forecasting. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 2006, 30(1): 78-101.

[28] 龙瀛, 韩昊英, 毛其智. 利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界. 地理学报, 2009, 64(8): 999-1008.

[29] 龙瀛, 沈振江, 毛其智, 等. 基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析. 地理学报, 2010, 65(6): 643-655.

[30] Brown D G, Page S, Riolo R, et al. Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2005, 19(2): 153-174.

[31] Sanders L, Pumain D, Mathian H, et al. SIMPOP: A multiagent system for the study of urbanism. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1997, 24(2): 287-305.

[32] Li X, Yang Q S, Liu X P. Discovering and evaluating urban signatures for simulating compact development using cellular automata. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2008, 86(2): 177-186.

[33] Liu X H, Wang J F, Liu M L, et al. Spatial heterogeneity of the driving forces of cropland change in China. Science in China: Series D, 2005, 48(12): 2231-2240.

[34] Watkins C A. The definition and identification of housing submarkets. Environment and Planning A, 2001, 33(12): 2235-2253.

[35] Jones C, Leishman C, Watkins C. Intra-urban migration and housing submarkets: Theory and evidence. Housing Studies, 2004, 19(2): 269-283.

[36] Stevenson S. New empirical evidence on heteroscedasticity in hedonic housing models. Journal of Housing Economics, 2004, 13(2): 136-153.

[37] Bourassa S C, Cantoni E, Hoesh M. Spatial dependence, housing submarkets, and house price prediction. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2007, 35(2): 143-160.

[38] Goodman A C, Thibodeau T G. Housing market segmentation. Journal of Housing economics, 1998, 7(2): 121-143.

[39] 北京市规划委员会, 北京市城市规划设计研究院, 北京城市规划学会. 北京城市规划图志(1949-2005). 内部报告, 2006.

[40] 龙瀛, 何永, 刘欣, 等. 北京市限建区规划:制订城市扩展的边界. 城市规划, 2006, 30(12): 20-26.

[41] 北京市计划委员会国土环保处. 北京国土资源. 北京: 北京科学技术出版社, 1988.

[42] 北平市政府工程局. 北京市城郊地图. 北京: 中国地图出版社, 2007.