Influences of Five Crises on US Inbound and Outbound Tourism: Analysis Based on the Tourism Background Trend Line in High Time Resolution
Received date: 2010-01-01
Revised date: 2010-05-01
Online published: 2010-08-25
Based on the data from Jan. 1996 to Nov. 2009 and the tourism background trend line model, this paper restates the relevant theory and evaluation methods, and analyzes the influences of five crises on American inbound and outbound tourism by using monthly index. During the Asian financial crisis, tourists from Japan, South Korean, Taiwan and Hong Kong were obviously decreased, thus, US inbound tourism was affected for 16 months, with an accumulative loss of 2.22 million person-trips and 7.65 billion(receipts) dollars. The most serious crisis was 9/11 terrorist attacks, which caused tremendous impacts on US inbound tourism and outbound tourism, which were respectively affected for 26 and 15 months, with accumulative losses of 11.78 million and 5.27 million person-trips and 21.8 billion(receipts) and 13.4 billion(payments) dollars respectively. The power of SARS towards inbound tourism lasted for 12 months with an accumulative loss of 7.74 million person-trips and 14.6 billion dollars. Affected by 6 hurricanes from 2004 to 2006, US inbound tourism accumulatively lost 2.34 million person-trips and about 3 billion dollars (receipts), and outbound tourism accumulatively lost 1.07 million person-trips with almost no effects on tourism payments. Novel result is that the effects of every tsunami can only last for 3 to 4 months toward inbound tourism and 2 to 3 months for outbound tourism, while the accumulative damage of the undergoing global financial tsunami is, according to the on-hand data, respectively 7.22 million and 4.64 million person-trips for inbound tourism and outbound tourism, and 16.9 billion and 16.5 billion dollars respectively for tourism receipts and payments. Finally, comparing the influences of the five events from the aspects of characteristics, origins, affecting mechanism and wave forms, this paper provides a scientific basis for a clearer understanding of crisis management in tourism industry.
SUN Gennian,SHU Jingjing,MA Lijun,WANG Jiejie . Influences of Five Crises on US Inbound and Outbound Tourism: Analysis Based on the Tourism Background Trend Line in High Time Resolution[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010 , 29(8) : 987 -996 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.08.012
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