Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in DingXi (Gan Su province) and HeFei (An Hui Provicve)
Received date: 2006-02-01
Revised date: 2006-06-01
Online published: 2006-07-25
The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate change will be more severe in this century based on climate models project. And it will have significant impacts on many human sectors, especially on agriculture. Agriculture is the foundation of society, especially for China with large population. Wheat is the second most important crop in China. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impacts of climate change on wheat in China. In order to predict the future risk of climate change on Chinese wheat production, firstly, fifteen- year ECMWF re- analysis data (1979~1993) is used as quasi- observed boundary conditions to drive regional climate modeling system- PRECIS, then the dataset is employed to test the effects of feeding CERES-Wheat model with RCM daily outputs directly via comparing the simulated results and the station observation. Based on the above validation, two wheat stations (Ding Xi and He Fei) were selected to assess the possible changes of future two production under IPCC SRES A2 & B2 scenarios. The rained and irrigated wheat production without and with CO2 fertilization effect, were simulated respectively. It is shown that: regardless of A2 or B2 scenarios, the future climatic change will increase wheat yield both in Dingxi and Hefei to some extent, but the range increased differs greatly. The yield increasing effect of A2 scenario will be generally greater than B2 scenario, the irrigated wheat will benefit more than rainfed wheat, the winter wheat (Hefei ) has larger increasing degree than spring wheat (Dingxi ). With the directly fertilizer effect of CO2, all the treat will increase by a large margin.
Key words： CERES- wheat mode; climate change; RCM
TIAN Zhan,XU Xinliang,SHI Jun . Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in DingXi (Gan Su province) and HeFei (An Hui Provicve)[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2006 , 25(4) : 88 -95 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2006.04.010
雷水玲. 全球气候变化对宁夏春小麦生长和产量的影响. 中国农业气象, 2001, 22( 2) 33~36.
[ 2] 郑有飞, 万长建等. 气候变化对小麦生产影响的数值模拟研究.南京气象学院学报, 1999, 22( 4) 645~651.
[ 3] 郑大玮, 刘中丽, 气候变化对小麦生产的影响, 邓根云等, 气候变化对中国农业的影响, 263~281, 北京: 北京科学技 术出版社, 1993.
[ 4] 赵宗慈. 未来50 年温室效应对中国气候变化的可能影响. 气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文( 第三集) , 气象出版 社, 北京, 1996, 170~178.
[ 5] 刘建栋等. CO2 倍增对黄淮海气候生产力影响的数值模拟. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10( 1) .17~23.
[ 6] 张宇等. 气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11( 3) :264~270.
[ 7] 王石立, 娄秀荣.气候变化对华北地区冬小麦水分亏缺状况及生长的影响. 应用气象学报, 1996.7( 3) :308~315.
[ 8] 张宇, 赵四强. CERES 小麦模式在我国的初步应用. 中国农业气象, 1991, 12(3):11~14.
[ 9] Tian Z, Tubiello F N, Liu JY. Assessing the impact on Chinese wheat production of future climate change. IIASA Summer Young Scientist Report IR- 2005, 6~27.
[ 10] Uehara G, Tsuji G Y. Overview of IBSNAT, In: Gordon Y T, Hoogenboon G, Philip K. Thornton, eds. Systems approaches for sustainable agricultural development. Wageningen, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998. 12~25.
[ 11] Uehara G, Tsuji GY. Overview of IBSNAT. In: Gordon YT, Hoogenboom G. Philip K. eds. Understanding options for agricultural production: Systems approaches for sustainable agricultural development, The Netherlands Wageninggen: Kluwer Academic Publisher, F.W.T. Penning de Vries, CABO- DLO. 1998, 1~8.
[ 12] 金之庆, 方绢. 全球气候变缓影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻. 作物学报, 1994, 20( 2) : 186~197.
[ 13] 金之庆, 葛道阔, 陈华等. 全球气候变暖对我国南方水稻生产的影响. 南京林业大学学报, 1991, 10( 生态专辑) : 11~19.
[ 14] 金之庆, 葛道阔, 郑喜莲. 评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响. 作物学报, 1996, 22( 5) : 513~523.
[ 15] John H, Retchie J T. Modeling plant and soil systems. Madison, Wiscons, USA, 1991.
[ 16] 许吟隆, Jones R. 利用ECMWF 再分析数据验证PRECIS 对中国区域气候的模拟能力. 中国农业气象, 2004, 25( 1) : 5~9.
[ 17] UKCIP2002. UKCIP Scientific Report 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |