A Grey Correlational Analysis on Industrial Structure Changes and Industrialization Processes in Beijing Region
Online published: 2010-02-25
On the basis of Chenery-Syrquin’s standard patterns of development and Kuznets’s national pattern of development based on per capita GDP and three industrial structures, by using grey correlational analysis method, this paper discusses the industrialization processes in Beijing region during the period of 1978-2005. The study results show during the period: 1) from 1978 to about 1984 the industrialization level in Beijing region was in the early half of middle stage of industrialization; 2) from about 1985 to about 1993 it was in the late half of middle stage of industrialization; 3) from about 1994 onward it was in the late industrialization stage; and 4) from 2001 on it has been characterized by a developed economy. The determination results are not only corresponding to the realistic development situations in Beijing region during the same periods, but also being validated by other relevant studies from different researches. This research also shows, on one hand, grey correlational analysis method demonstrates its advantages over the conventional direct comparison based on the per capita GDP and three industrial structures in the studied region and the Chenery-Syrquin’s standard pattern of development or Kuznets’s national pattern of development, and makes the determination results more reliable, acceptable and cogent. On the other hand, different from the conventional direct comparison method, the grey correlational analysis will make the determination almost not depend mainly on the judgement maker’s own experience, knowledge accumulation and even subjective consciousness. On all accounts, the determination by grey correlational analysis method is easier than that by the conventional direct comparison, and this method minimizes the disadvantages, and makes the determination process and results more scientific, objective, accurate and reliable.
GUO Tengyun . A Grey Correlational Analysis on Industrial Structure Changes and Industrialization Processes in Beijing Region[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010 , 29(2) : 193 -198 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.02.010
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