Assessment of Loss of Ecosystem Service Value under Sea-level Rise: A Case Study of Shekou Peninsula in Shenzhen
Online published: 2009-05-25
Global warming is an important process which may profoundly influence the global ecosystem, and the corresponding sea-level rise may be one of the most concerns for its unpredictable disastrous risk, and so forth threatening the sustainable development of coastal zone. People living in coastal areas are faced with the dilemma between exploring the coastal land for economic development and shunning the risk of inundation caused by sea-level rise. The issue has brought up wider attention of scientists including ecologists, meteorologists and economists, and of local governments who aim to facilitate their strategy to deal with it. In this paper, we take Shekou Peninsula as a study site, a threatened-site by sea-level rise located on the southern part in Nanshan district of Shenzhen. We predict the relative sea-level rise in this area based upon the previous researches and estimate the following effects, including storm surge, land inundation and loss of ecosystem service value. According to the investigation, under the scenario of sea-level rise: (1) the occurrence of storm surges will be intensified. The relative sea-level rise in the study area could be 1m by 2100, and the recurrence period will be shortened from 100 years to less than 10 years. The tides of 50-years-once and 100-years-once will be 3m and 3.3m, which bring about a greater threat to the construction of urban facilities near the coast. (2) The land of coastal zone will be inundated. There will be nearly 4816.2 hm2 of land in the risk of being inundated, making up 16.6% of the study area. The main categories of the inundated areas are using as urban construction and marine cultivation, occupying nearly 60% and 30% of the whole inundated area respectively, and this may cause great economic benefit lost. (3) The reduction of ecosystem service value will get to 19665.5, 44729.2 and 50528.3 thousand yuan per year under different tide heights respectively of 1m, 3m and 3.3m, and the loss of ecological value per unit area may take up nearly 1% GDP of per unit area in Shenzhen (according to price in 2000).
Key words： ecosystem service; land inundation; sea level rise; Shenzhen; storm surge
LI You1, WANG Yanglin1, PENG Jian1, LIU Zhenhuan2, WU Jiansheng2 . Assessment of Loss of Ecosystem Service Value under Sea-level Rise: A Case Study of Shekou Peninsula in Shenzhen[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2009 , 28(3) : 417 -423 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.03.014
[1] 陈述彭. 海岸带及其持续发展. 遥感信息, 1996(03)： 6-12.
[2] 钟兆站.中国海岸带自然灾害与环境评估. 地理科学进展, 1997, 16(1)：44-50.
[3] 李恒鹏, 杨桂山. 海平面上升的海岸形态响应研究方法与进展. 地球科学进展, 2000, 15(5): 598-603.
[4] 赵庆良, 许世远, 王军, 等. 沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26(5): 32-40.
[5] 李加林, 王艳红, 张忍顺, 等. 海平面上升的灾害效应研究：以江苏沿海低地为例. 地理科学, 2006, 26(1)：87-93.
[6] 施雅风, 朱季文, 谢志仁, 等. 长江三角洲及毗连地区海平面上升影响预测与防治对策. 中国科学:D辑, 2000, 30(3): 225-232.
[7] 韩慕康, 三村信男, 细川恭史, 等. 渤海西岸平原海平面上升危害性评估. 地理学报, 1994, 49(2)：107-116.
[8] 夏东兴, 刘振夏, 王德邻, 等. 海面上升对渤海湾西岸的影响与对策. 海洋学报, 1994, 16(1)：61-67.
[9] Gambolati G, Teatini P. GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2002, 35: 963-972.
[10]杨桂山, 施雅风. 海平面上升对中国沿海重要工程设施与城市发展的可能影响. 地理学报, 1995, 50(4)：302-309.
[11] Matthew J Purvis, Paul D Bates, Christopher M Hayes. A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise, Coastal Engineering (2008),doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.04.008.
[12] Maria Snoussi, Tachfine Ouchani, Sa da Niazi. Vulnera-bility assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2008: 77.
[13] A C Demirkesen, F Evrendilek, S Berberoglu. Coastal flood risk analysis using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A case study of Izmir, Turkey. Environ. Monit. Assess., 2007, 131:293-300.
[14] 刘杜娟,叶银灿. 长江三角洲地区的相对海平面上升与地面沉降. 地质灾害与环境保护, 2005, 16(4)：400-404.
[15]季子修, 蒋自黑, 朱季文, 等. 海平面上升对长江三角洲附近沿海潮滩和湿地的影响. 海洋与湖沼, 1994, 25(6)：582-590.
[16] 杨桂山,施雅风,张琛. 未来海岸环境变化的易损范围及评估: 江苏滨海平原个例研究. 地理学报, 2000, 55(4)：385-394.
[17] 黄镇国, 张伟强, 吴厚水, 等. 珠江三角洲2030年海平面上升幅度预测及防御方略. 中国科学:D辑, 2000, 30(2)：202-208.
[18]刘晨, 伍丽萍. 海平面上升对珠江三角洲水资源的影响. 海洋环境科学, 1996, 15(2)：51-56.
[19]刘岳峰, 邬伦, 韩慕康, 等. 辽河三角洲地区海平面上升趋势及其影响评估. 海洋学报, 1998, 20(2)：73-82.
[20] 张伟强, 黄镇国, 连文树. 广东沿海地区海平面上升影响综合评估. 自然灾害学报, 1999, 8(1)：78-87.
[21]黄镇国, 张伟强, 陈奇礼, 等. 海平面上升对广东沿海工程设计参数的影响. 地理科学, 2003, 23(1)：39-41.
[22]肖笃宁, 韩慕康, 李晓文, 等.环渤海海平面上升与三角洲湿地保护.第四纪研究, 2003, 23(3)：237-246.
[23] Robert J Nicholls, Frank M J. Hoozemans, Marcel Marchand. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, Global Environmental Change， 1999(9)： S69-S87.
[24] Robert J. Nicholls. Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 2003, 27: 1455-1466.
[25] Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner. The impact of sea level rise on developingcountries: a comparative analysis, Climatic Change, DOI10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5.
[26] Al-Jeneid S, Bahnassy M, Nasr S, et al. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain, Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change, 2008, 13: 87-104.
[27] Snoussi M et al. Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay. Geomorphology (2009), doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.07.043.
[28] Nageswara Rao K, Subraelu P, Venkateswara Rao T. Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast, India through remote sensing and GIS. J. Coast Conserv., 2008, 12:195-207.
[29] Muh Aris Marfai, Lorenz King, Potential vulnerability implications of coastal inundation due to sea level rise for the coastal zone of Semarang city, Indonesia. Environ. Geol., 2008, 54:1235-1245.
[30] Jeffrey A M. Episodic flooding and the cost of sea-level rise. Ecological Economics, 2007, 63: 149-159.
[31]时小军, 陈特固, 余克服.近40年来珠江口的海平面变化.海洋地质与第四纪地质, 2008, 28(1)：127-134.
[32]施雅风, 赵希涛.中国气候与海平面变化及其趋势和影响：中国海面变化.济南：山东科学技术出版社, 1995.
[33] 蒋自巽.海平面上升对长江三角洲附近地区海堤工程的影响.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所集刊, 1994, 11号：28-35.
[34] 李加林, 张殿发, 杨晓平, 等.海平面上升的灾害效应及其研究现状.灾害学, 2005, 20(2)：49-53.
[35] Costanza R, D'Arge R, De Groot R, et al. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature,1997,387: 253-260.
[36] 彭建, 王仰麟, 陈燕飞, 等.城市生态系统服务功能价值评估初探: 以深圳市为例.北京大学学报（自然科学版）, 2005, 41(4)：594-604.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |