Advance in and Tendencies of Land Use and Cover Change Model
Online published: 2009-09-25
LUCC models are conducive to better understand the dynamics of land use system. LUCC models have advanced significantly both in theory and practice over the past decade, and developing new generation of LUCC models is considered as the main task of Global Land Project. From the perspective of epistemology, based on analyses of case studies on LUCC modeling and approaches to quantify the relationship between land use change and its driven forces, LUCC models fall into three categories: empirical-statistical models, concept mechanism models and integrated models, and then the concept, technique and method concerned, application, existing drawback of each type are analyzed. The conclusion is presented as follows. Each type can address specific issues in the field of LUCC, and meanwhile, has its own drawbacks and limits. (1) Empirical-statistical models, including exploratory data analysis, regression, Bayesian and training, attempt to identify explicitly the causes of land use change using multivariate analyses of possible exogenous contributions to gain empirically-derived rates of changes. However, the findings of links between land use change and its driving forces are not equal to causal relationships. Also, a model that fits well in a specific region or at one scale performs poorly out of that region or scale. (2) Concept mechanism models, in this paper embracing economic models and agent-based models, are mainly applied to simulate operation and evolution of a variety of processes based on a series of laws and theories. Although they are strongly deductive, deflects are evident in terms of their complexity and data. (3) Integrated models can be defined as combining elements of these different modeling techniques to seek for reasonable resolutions to specific issues. But the level of integration is not always high currently so that they cannot reflect the objectivity of research subject. At present, in terms of spatial/temporal scale and data, a variety of common issues still trouble LUCC modelers. The tendencies of future LUCC models mainly manifest themselves at the following aspects: dealing with multi-scale issues effectively; assessing and addressing problems in terms of spatial neighborhood effect and temporal dynamics; integrating analysis and modeling land sustainability.
Key words： land use and land cover change; model simulation; scale
ZHU Likai, MENG Jijun . Advance in and Tendencies of Land Use and Cover Change Model[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2009 , 28(5) : 782 -790 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.05.017
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