PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 1055-1059.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.09.005

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Empirical Study for Comprehensive Appraisal of Coal and Oil Security Risk: A Case study in Beijing and Zhejiang

WEI Danqing1,2, ZHAO Jian'an1, LI Hongqiang1,2, LANG Yihuan1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2010-01-01 Revised:2010-05-01 Online:2010-09-25 Published:2010-09-25

Abstract:

On the basis of the risk appraisal index system of coal and oil, a risk appraisal model for the comprehensive risk degrees was established and the degrees of various risk sources for the coal and oil security were estimated. In this paper, we use the AHP and 14 indicators to calculate the risk indexes, and made a comprehensive grading of the coal and oil security risk, and classified the possibility of risks into the lowest, low, medium, high and very high levels. Concerning the comprehensive risk index (ECSRI), 0-0.2 is I (the lowest), 0.20.4 is Ⅱ(low), 0.4-0.6 is Ⅲ (medium), 0.6-0.8 is Ⅳ (high), and ≥0.8 is V (very high). We applied the system to the empirical research in Beijing and Zhejiang, two regions with high levels of social and economic development in eastern China, obtained the comprehensive risk degrees and the degrees of various risk sources for the coal and oil security for this two places, and then evaluated coal and oil security risk ratings. The result is that coal security risk ratings of Beijing and Zhejiang are at the lower and medium levels respectively. The rating for Beijing is 0.3160 and for Zhejiang is 0.4725. Oil security risk ratings are at medium and higher levels (Beijing is 0.4840 and Zhejang is 0.6371). Compared with the actual coal and oil security of these two places, the result is generally coincident with the reality, and thus confirmed the reliability of the index system and evaluation method. At the same time, the empirical results also predicted the risk probability of two places within the next few years. }

Key words: Beijing, coal, comprehensive risk degree, oil, security risk system, Zhejiang