PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 933-945.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.07.007

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Hazard assessment of typhoons affecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Gumbel distribution

Qian LI1,3(), Haiyang YU4, Ting LI4, Shuang LONG1,3, Wei SHAO3, Ying WANG1,2,3, Yingjun XU1,2,3,*()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    4. Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2017-09-04 Revised:2018-02-10 Online:2018-07-28 Published:2018-07-28
  • Contact: Yingjun XU;
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2017YFC1502505, No.2017YFA0604903;Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, No.Z201603H


Continuous rainstorm caused by typhoons is one of the major meteorological disasters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study focused on the hazard assessment of typhoons, identified the high hazard areas,and provided references for the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of typhoons in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on the typhoons that affected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1974 to 2015, spatial variations of precipitation and wind speed are examined using 42 years of data from 148 meteorological stations, and the spatial distribution patterns are depicted by ArcGIS. Gumbel distribution is used to calculate the values of meteorological parameters at the stations under different return periods (RP 5 a, 10 a, 30 a, 50 a). The results show that the maximum daily precipitation is 190.62 mm, the maximum cumulative precipitation is 253.04 mm, and the maximum wind speed is 16.81 m/s (RP=50 a). Southeastern Beijing, northern Tianjin, southeastern coast of Hebei Province, and the Taihang Mountains are the high hazard areas.

Key words: typhoon, hazard assessment, hazard, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region