基于随机森林模型的黄河流域城市建设用地结构时空演化及其驱动机制研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Cities are the main spatial carriers for the agglomeration of regional population, industry and other factors, and systematically revealing the evolution of urban construction land structure and its driving mechanism is of great significance for further promoting the implementation of ecological conservation and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River Basin. Based on the urban construction land data of the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2019, the spatiotemporal change characteristics and differentiation patterns of the construction land structure in the basin were analyzed by using the information entropy model, and the formation mechanism of the driving factors was examined by using the random forest model. The results show that: 1) From 2007 to 2019, the area of urban construction land in the Yellow River Basin continued to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 5.34%, but the information entropy of urban construction land structure decreased, and experienced a change process of high-level disorder, relatively stable, and low-level orderly. 2) The growth rate of urban construction land use in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River increased successively, with the annual growth rate reaching 3.91%, 5.06% and 6.22% respectively. The information entropy of urban construction land use structure in the middle reaches of the Yellow River decreased the most, and the decline rates in the upper reaches and lower reaches were similar. 3) All types of construction land in the basin are mainly distributed in provincial capitals and cities in economically developed areas, and there is a clear spatial heterogeneity in the information entropy of urban construction land use structure in the region. The information entropy of urban construction land use structure in provincial capital cities and economically developed cities showed a decreasing trend, while the information entropy of less developed cities gradually increased. 4) The scale of urban land use and the size of urban population have the strongest effect on the change of urban construction land use structure, followed by the intensity of industrial structure upgrading and scale of fiscal expenditure. The role of economic development level and policy support is small, and the intensity of impact of upstream, middle reaches, and downstream influencing factors is heterogeneous. 5) The scale of urban land use, the size of urban population, and the scale of fiscal expenditure showed a positive change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure, the level of economic development and industrial structure upgrading showed a negative change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure, and the policy support showed an inverted U-shaped change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure.

Key words: urban construction land, information entropy, random forest model, high-quality development, Yellow River Basin

GUO Yuanzhi, LI Xuhong. Spatiotemporal changes of urban construction land structure and driving mechanism in the Yellow River Basin based on random forest model[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 12-26.

Figures/Tables 11

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变量	变量名称	变量符号	含义	单位
被解释变量	城市建设用地结构	Y	建设用地结构信息熵	Nat
解释变量	城市用地规模	X₁	城市建设用地面积	km²
	城市人口规模	X₂	城市年末人口	万人
	经济发展水平	X₃	职工年平均工资	元
	产业结构升级	X₄	三产产值/二产产值	—
	财政支出规模	X₅	一般公共预算支出	亿元
	政策支持力度	X₆	房地产开发投资/GDP	—

年份	城市建设用地结构/%							信息熵/ Nat
年份	居住用地	公共设施用地	工业用地	仓储用地	道路交通用地	市政公用设施用地	绿地与广场用地	信息熵/ Nat
2007	29.45	14.18	21.23	3.73	15.23	6.22	9.96	1.7778
2008	30.16	13.92	21.12	3.38	15.32	6.10	10.01	1.7672
2009	29.96	14.23	20.28	3.48	15.66	5.89	10.50	1.7727
2010	30.62	14.35	19.19	3.22	16.45	5.81	10.38	1.7655
2011	31.29	14.21	18.28	3.81	15.59	5.77	11.05	1.7737
2012	30.72	19.36	16.63	3.34	12.97	5.19	11.78	1.7629
2013	30.57	16.88	17.29	3.04	14.06	4.90	13.26	1.7638
2014	29.97	17.32	17.27	3.20	14.46	4.28	13.50	1.7631
2015	29.34	17.02	17.97	3.21	15.28	3.72	13.46	1.7595
2016	29.47	17.18	17.24	3.21	15.74	3.70	13.46	1.7591
2017	29.38	17.44	16.83	3.26	15.73	3.61	13.74	1.7596
2018	29.08	17.05	16.05	3.00	16.29	3.43	15.11	1.7563
2019	30.61	17.46	16.80	3.24	16.17	2.59	13.13	1.7337

区域	调整R²	MAE	排序1	排序2	排序3	排序4	排序5	排序6
总体	0.9557	0.0228	X₁	X₂	X₄	X₅	X₃	X₆
上游	0.9606	0.0267	X₁	X₂	X₄	X₅	X₃	X₆
中游	0.9471	0.0193	X₂	X₁	X₅	X₄	X₃	X₆
下游	0.9443	0.0163	X₂	X₁	X₃	X₅	X₆	X₄

Spatiotemporal changes of urban construction land structure and driving mechanism in the Yellow River Basin based on random forest model

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