土地利用变化情景下杭州湾北岸极端洪灾风险评估

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.08.009

Abstract

Abstract:

The Hangzhou Bay, located in the Yangtze River Delta, is characterized by broad distribution of tidal flats and wetlands. As sea levels continue to rise in the future, natural hazards, especially storm surges, will be more likely to occur, which will have a great impact on the socioeconomic development of the region. Based on multi-year land use and assets data, this study conducted a simulation of the spatiotemporal change of elements at risk and exposures in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay. The simulation is based on predictions of future variations in land use and assets and multiple extreme flooding scenarios, in order to assess the losses of flood disasters in the region. The results show that: 1) High values of asset losses per unit area under the current scenario appear in the south of Pudong New District. In future scenarios, high values of asset losses per unit area will cover the entire southern coastal area and the northern Jinshan District in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay. 2) The entire study area will witness a growth in asset exposure and losses under extreme flooding scenarios as the GDP and the exposed and inundated area increase. The expected annual damage will rise from 65 million yuan under the current scenario to 304 million yuan under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5H scenario in the future. The risk assessment results indicate that the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay is susceptible to extraordinarily large floods. Thus, risk-sensitive urban planning must be implemented. The standards and specifications on residential communities and infrastructures in the region must be updated. Meanwhile, comprehensive preventive measures must be taken to enhance the flood control capabilities along the banks of the Hangzhou Bay. This study can provide a basis for decision making of risk-based urban planning, flood-risk adaption measures, and resilience improvements within the study area. The proposed research method is more reasonable and effective than the traditional methods of assessing future economic losses, which are often based only on current land use and asset values. It can also provide a methodological reference for risk assessments of other coastal regions.

Key words: land use simulation, risk assessment, future scenario, SLEUTH model, north bank of the Hangzhou Bay

JIANG Li, YU Jia, WEN Jiahong, TANG Jin, QI Manfei, WANG Luyang, ZHANG Min. Risk assessment of extreme flood in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay under land use change scenarios[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(8): 1355-1370.

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控制参数	粗校正		精校正		终校正		最优控制系数
	蒙特卡洛迭代次数=5		蒙特卡洛迭代次数=8		蒙特卡洛迭代次数=10
		范围	步长		范围	步长		范围	步长
扩散系数	0~100	20	0~20	4	0~5	1	1
繁衍系数	0~100	20	1~20	4	1~17	4	4
蔓延系数	0~100	20	0~20	4	0~5	1	1
坡度阻碍系数	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
道路引力系数	0~100	20	1~80	8	1~20	6	19
Lee-Sallee形状指数	0.48		0.48		0.48

土地利用类型	2006年
土地利用类型	实际面积/km²	模拟面积/km²	精度/%
农业用地	1089.51	1121.81	97.12
工矿仓储用地	90.26	110.06	82.01
公共设施用地	58.23	47.22	81.09
交通用地	46.72	26.39	56.48
居住用地	178.42	166.27	93.19
其他用地	98.38	90.50	91.99

土地利用类型	2050年模拟面积/km²	2035年规划面积/km²	叠合度/%
农业用地	438.6276	476.6760	92.02
工矿仓储用地	105.2388	75.1356	71.40
公共设施用地	45.4860	31.6044	69.48
交通用地	22.1328	55.8324	39.64
居住用地	38.7576	44.6148	86.87
其他用地	49.6224	16.0452	32.33

土地利用类型	不同重现期下土地利用暴露资产/亿元
土地利用类型	200 a	500 a	1000 a	5000 a
居住用地	81	133	204	517
工业用地	144	232	387	672
交通用地	42	68	115	245
公共设施用地	79	112	156	372
农业用地	306	471	682	1751
其他用地	73	100	133	289
合计	725	1116	1677	3846

土地利用类型	不同重现期下土地利用资产损失/亿元
土地利用类型	200 a	500 a	1000 a	5000 a
居住用地	4.7	9.0	14.3	38.4
工业用地	5.6	9.7	15.9	36.2
交通用地	0.6	1.1	1.9	4.9
公共设施用地	6.0	8.7	11.6	24.8
农业用地	37.5	76.8	121.5	321.1
其他用地	2.9	4.6	6.1	12.4
合计	57.2	109.9	171.3	437.9

Risk assessment of extreme flood in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay under land use change scenarios

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土地利用类型	未来不同重现期下土地利用暴露资产/亿元
	RCP4.5				RCP8.5				RCP8.5H
		200 a	500 a	1000 a	5000 a		200 a	500 a	1000 a	5000 a		200 a	500 a	1000 a	5000 a
居住用地	294	528	849	1700	310	555	907	1739	347	603	1001	1782
工业用地	615	1083	1660	2321	654	1141	1704	2377	691	1274	1787	2417
交通用地	160	275	447	769	167	293	471	786	179	329	504	798
公共设施用地	272	388	615	1207	283	408	646	1237	302	456	698	1260
农业用地	1188	1889	3005	6434	1258	1987	3206	6673	1354	2208	3514	6925
其他用地	246	343	488	950	255	354	511	980	266	379	549	1013
合计	2774	4506	7065	13381	2926	4738	7445	13792	3139	5249	8053	14196

资产	现状情景	未来情景
暴露资产范围	小	大
单位面积暴露资产值高值	浦东新区南部小范围区域	浦东新区大治河以南区域
资产损失的范围	小	大
单位面积资产损失高值	沿海岸线的小部分区域,呈零散分布, 主要是浦东新区沿海	沿海区域,呈带状分布, 包括金山区北部和整个浦东区南部

资产损失	现状情景	RCP4.5情景	RCP8.5情景	RCP8.5H情景
5000 a重现期下暴露资产	3846	13381	13792	14196
5000 a重现期下损失资产	437.9	1695.0	1789.0	1909.0
年期望损失	0.65	2.62	2.78	3.04

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