中国地级以上城市“五化”协调发展时空格局及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.07.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Accelerating the coordinated development of greenization, industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, and informationization is a key requirement for building a comprehensive well-off society and realizing the sustainable development of the economy and society. Based on data of the 342 prefecture level and above administrative units in China, this study constructed an index system for evaluating the coordination level and efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development, and used the coupled coordination model, data envelopment model, and panel data regression analysis model to analyze the coordination level, development efficiency, spatial distribution, and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of each administrative unit in 2008 and 2013.The results show that: (1) Between 2008 and 2013, the comprehensiveness degree, coupling degree, and coordination degree of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development increased and the regional differences gradually reduced, but the level of development of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and other eastern China regions was still higher than that in central and western China. (2) The spatial distribution of the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations" showed "clustering," "hierarchical," and "stepped" characteristics, with an eastern > central > western development pattern. (3) The comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency of the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations" was low and the regional difference was significant; the technical efficiency was high and the regional differences was small. The coordinated development efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" showed "hierarchical" and "stepped" characteristics, with efficiencies corresponding to cities' administrative level and decreasing from the eastern to the central and western regions. (4) The low scale efficiency was the key factor that led to low comprehensive efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development. The spatial pattern of the "Five Modernizations" coordination degree was the result of the differences and interactions between complex geographical environment, economic, and social development factors.

Key words: "Five Modernizations" coordinated development, spatiotemporal patterns, influencing factor, coupling function, China

Xiaojun JIANG, Qingshan YANG, Jian LIU. Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(7): 806-819.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab.1

Index system for the comprehensive evaluation of the “Five Modernizations” coordinated development

一级指标层	二级指标层	指标计算	指标属性	指标权重
工业化指数	工业产出比重	工业增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.158
	工业就业比重	工业从业人数/总就业人数(%)	+	0.156
	工业人均产值	工业总产值/总人口(元/人)	+	0.193
	工业劳动生产率	工业增加值/二产从业人员(万元/人)	+	0.183
	工业产值利润率	规上工业利润总额/规上工业总产值(%)	+	0.116
	工业利用外资率	外商投资工业总产值/规上工业总产值(%)	+	0.194
城镇化指数	人口城镇化率	非农人口/总人口(%)	+	0.184
	人均消费指数	社会消费品零售总额/总人口(元/人)	+	0.221
	医卫人员指数	医卫机构人员/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.159
	社会保障指数	基本养老保险人数/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.217
	市民生活质量	城镇居民人均可支配收入(元)	+	0.117
	三产产出比重	三产增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.112
农业现代化指数	农业劳动生产率	农业总产值/一产从业人数(万元/人)	+	0.164
	农业劳均农产品量	主要农产品/一产从业人数(kg/人)	+	0.182
	农业地均粮食产出	粮食产量/粮食作物播种面积(kg/hm2)	+	0.167
	农业机械化率	农业机械化总动力/耕地面积(kw/hm2)	+	0.152
	农业灌溉指数	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积(%)	+	0.163
	农民生活质量	农民人均纯收入(元)	+	0.172
信息化指数	信息产业产值比	信息产业增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.178
	邮电业务指数	邮电业务总量/总人口(元/人)	+	0.187
	互联网宽带普及度	互联网宽带接入用户/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.185
	移动电话普及度	移动电话使用人数/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.171
	固定电话普及度	固话使用人数/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.146
	信息人才指数	在校大学生人数/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.133
绿色化指数	森林覆盖率	森林面积/区域面积(%)	+	0.213
	大气环境指数	(废气SO₂+烟尘排放量)/总人口(t/万人)	-	0.151
	水环境指数	废水排放量/总人口(t/万人)	-	0.142
	能源利用效率	能源消费量/国民生产总值(t标准煤/万元)	-	0.156
	污水处理率	污水处理率(%)	+	0.176
	生活绿色化指数	生活垃圾无害化处理率(%)	+	0.162

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.4

Tab.5

Fig.5

Tab.6

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要素名称	一级指标	二级指标
投入指标	劳动力投入	年末就业总人数
	资本投入	人均固产投资、人均财政支出
	土地投入	城市建成区面积、人均耕地面积
产出指标	“五化”协调	“五化”协调度

协调度分级	一级	二级	三级	四级	五级	六级
协调度分级	极低协调	低级协调	中级协调	较高协调	高级协调	极高协调
协调度值	[0.0, 0.2]	(0.2, 0.4]	(0.4, 0.5]	(0.5, 0.6]	(0.6, 0.8]	(0.8, 1.0]

地区	综合效率			纯技术效率			规模效率
地区	2008		2013		2008	2013	2008	2013
直辖市	0.845	0.927		0.925	0.943		0.915	0.982
副省级及省会城市	0.769	0.797		0.893	0.905		0.857	0.88
地级市	0.473	0.515		0.825	0.848		0.579	0.610

地区	综合效率			纯技术效率			规模效率
地区	2008		2013		2008	2013	2008	2013
东部	0.591	0.647		0.896	0.929		0.653	0.694
中部	0.497	0.544		0.809	0.834		0.623	0.657
西部	0.445	0.468		0.802	0.814		0.564	0.582
中国均值	0.505	0.546		0.832	0.855		0.609	0.639

影响因素	回归系数	标准差	t统计量	P值
常数项	-0.212	0.028	-7.602	0.000
产业结构	0.531	0.035	15.313	0.000^***
人均农林水利支出	-0.106	0.067	-1.582	0.115^*
人均教育支出	0.227	0.086	2.632	0.009^***
人均科研经费支出	0.317	0.13	2.436	0.015^**
农村人均农业贷款额	0.122	0.046	2.674	0.007^***
城乡人均收入比	0.322	0.028	11.402	0.000^***
人均绿地面积	0.191	0.098	1.958	0.051^*

Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China

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