京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.003

Abstract

Abstract:

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important population agglomeration area and economic growth pole in China. Research on the coordinated development between population and economy under the backgroud of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is of great significance for promoting sustainable development of regional economy. Based on the population and GDP of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, this study applied elasticity, geographic concentration index, inconsistency index, and gravity center methods to analyze the coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results are as follows: (1) The degree of coordination between population growth and economic growth was generally high in the whole region, but differs among the cities. (2) Population and economic activities are concentrated in the southern and central parts of the region while the north was sparsely populated with few economic activities. The economic concentration index values were higher than the population concentration index values in Beijing and Tianjin. The population concentration index values were higher than the economic concentration index values in most cities of Hebei. The population gravity center and economic gravity center both moved towards the northeast of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with the economic gravity center displaying a stronger movement momentum. Moreover, the population gravity center of each city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region deviates from the economic gravity center to different extents. This article also puts forward some policy recommendations for promoting the coordinated development between population and economy.

Key words: population growth, economic distribution, coordinated development, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Guoping LI, Xinran LUO. Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(1): 25-33.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 14

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年份	人口增长率/%	GDP增长率/%	人口—经济增长弹性
2000	2.45	11.13	0.22
2001	0.64	7.38	0.09
2002	0.89	14.27	0.06
2003	0.82	15.99	0.05
2004	0.97	19.90	0.05
2005	1.01	28.97	0.03
2006	1.49	15.08	0.10
2007	1.68	17.25	0.10
2008	2.07	18.91	0.11
2009	1.88	11.39	0.17
2010	3.28	17.98	0.18
2011	1.52	18.69	0.08
2012	1.47	10.38	0.14
2013	1.39	8.03	0.17
2014	1.21	7.00	0.17

地区	人口年均增长率/%	GDP年均增长率/%	人口—经济增长弹性
北京	3.31	16.62	0.20
天津	3.01	17.53	0.17
石家庄	1.00	12.43	0.08
唐山	0.71	14.68	0.05
秦皇岛	0.77	10.80	0.07
邯郸	0.80	13.21	0.06
邢台	0.63	11.25	0.06
保定	0.66	11.02	0.06
张家口	0.38	12.99	0.03
承德	0.42	16.25	0.03
沧州	0.75	14.66	0.05
廊坊	1.19	13.52	0.09
衡水	0.44	10.11	0.04

象限	人口增长与经济增长协调发展关系	城市
第一象限	人口经济弹性高,经济增速高	北京和天津
第二象限	人口经济弹性低,经济增速高	沧州、唐山和承德
第三象限	人口经济弹性低,经济增速低	石家庄、秦皇岛、邯郸、保定、衡水和张家口
第四象限	人口经济弹性高,经济增速低	廊坊

城市	人口重心移动距离/km	经济重心移动距离/km
天津	4.69	22.68
承德	2.85	16.68
邢台	0.44	9.19
邯郸	0.58	7.36
北京	0.56	7.00
唐山	0.27	5.54
廊坊	3.25	4.95
张家口	1.01	3.12
沧州	0.59	2.74
保定	0.60	2.42
衡水	0.83	1.45
秦皇岛	2.13	1.30
石家庄	1.56	0.62

城市	人口重心与经济重心的偏离距离/km		偏离距离增加值/km
城市	2000年		2010年
天津	2.34	16.31	13.96
承德	7.87	18.73	10.85
邢台	3.57	12.05	8.48
邯郸	10.83	17.83	7.00
唐山	1.51	3.77	2.26
沧州	5.76	7.82	2.06
廊坊	10.86	12.55	1.70
石家庄	3.03	2.04	-1.00
衡水	4.37	3.36	-1.01
北京	4.04	2.58	-1.46
秦皇岛	12.88	10.05	-2.83
保定	8.13	5.29	-2.83
张家口	7.40	3.79	-3.60

Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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