PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1433-1443.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.10.001

    Next Articles

Prospects of energy cooperation of China with Russia and Central Asian countries

MAO Hanying1,2   

  1. 1. Institude of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. China Science Center of International Eurasian Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100107, China
  • Received:2013-10-01 Revised:2013-10-01 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-10-24

Abstract: Security of energy supply directly influences China's national security and the process of modernization. In 2011, China's dependence on foreign petroleum has run up to 54.95%, exceeding 50%, the internationally accepted alarm level. Therefore, how to ensure long-term, sustained, secure and reliable energy supply for China becomes the top priority of China's energy security. By energy cooperation in petroleum and natural gas resources with Russia and five Central Asian countries, China can remarkably reduce the costs of freight and time because of not only the geographical proximity but also the efficient pipeline transportation. As opposed to the traditional way of seaborne imports (accounting for 88% of China's crude oil imports), the energy cooperation can greatly improve the safety and reliability of energy supply because there is no need to pass through the maritime strategic channels under the control of other countries. In this paper, from the geopolitical point of view, based on the in-depth analysis of geopolitical background, strategic needs, resource basis and the status of the energy cooperation of China with Russia and five Central Asian countries, the author predicts the prospects of energy cooperation and the scales of the cooperation in different stages to the year of 2030, and proposes energy cooperation projects and development plans. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In 2015, Russia and Central Asian countries will account for more of China's import, from 12.3% (2010) to 20% in crude oil, from 10% (2010) to 50% in natural gas, and 26% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources; (2) In 2020, crude oil and natural gas imports from Russia and Central Asian countries will rise to 28% and 70% respectively, accounting for 38% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources; (3) In 2030, crude oil and natural gas imports from Russia and Central Asian countries will steadily stand at 26% and 75% respectively, accounting for 40% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources. This paper lists ten essential energy cooperation projects of China with Russia and five Central Asian countries. In order to enhance the level of cooperation, the paper puts forward four energy cooperation modes: loans for petroleum, production- sharing, joint management and technical services.

Key words: Central Asian countries, China, energy cooperation, Russia