PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 861-867.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.07.011

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of Runoff Characteristics of Luanhe River under Various Emission Scenarios in the Next Century

XIANG Liang1, LIU Xuefeng1,2, HAO Lisheng1, ZHAI Jianqing3, SHI Yinshan1   

  1. 1. Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
    2. Laboratory for Climate Studies,CMA, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2011-03-01 Revised:2011-04-01 Online:2011-07-25 Published:2011-07-25

Abstract: Based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM mode, using the climate change forecast actual experimental data for the next century under three scenarios (A2 high emission, A1B emissions, B1 low emission ), this paper applied HBV model to study the future of the Luanhe River Basin (2010-2100) under different scenarios of climate and runoff change. The result showed that HBV model had good practicability in the Luanhe River Basin. Using HBV model and predicted climate change data of the three emissions scenarios for the next century from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, it is found that in the three emission scenarios, the average runoff depth of Luanhe River Basin will have little change in the next century, but the trends will be quite different and the annual variation will be prominent. Overall, the depth of runoff in the Luanhe River basin will have varying degrees of increasing trend in the next century under the three scenarios, and it will have a significant increasing trend in scenario B1. There is a period of 2-9 years in scenarios A2 and A1B, while periodic change is not obvious in scenario B1.

Key words: cluster analysis technique, HBV model, Luanhe River, maximum entropy spectrum