PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 347-354.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.03.014

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Dynamic Simulation and Forecast of Urban Population Distribution Based on the Multi-agent System

XIAO Hong1,2, TIAN Huaiyu2, ZHU Peijuan2, YU Huankai3   

  1. 1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; |
    2. College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
  • Online:2010-03-25 Published:2010-03-25


The changing process of urban population distribution is a complicated dynamic system, so to learn its law is of great significance in urban planning and social sustainable development. Taking the interaction of the multi-agent system (MAS), cellular automata (CA) environment and urban population density model to build the urban population distribution model which can be accurate to the streets, this paper analyzes the process of urban population distribution in Changsha so as to provide a decision-making basis for related regulation. The research results show that the simulation of urban population distribution pattern is in agreement with the actual situations. Under the influence of various factors, Changsha’s population development will follow such a pattern: the downtown population grows rapidly while the suburban population increases slowly, and along the Xiangjiang river bank, the Wuyi road and the Yuelu high-tech development zone, the population will get very dense. Compared with the previous model, the simulation results obtain a higher precision, and therefore are much closer to the actual spatial distribution pattern.

Key words: cellular automata, Changsha City, dynamic simulation, multi-agent system, urban population distribution