PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 877-885.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.06.007

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Economic Impact of Natural Disaster and Indirect Economic Loss Estimation Methods

WU Jidong1,2, LI Ning1,3, HU Aijun1,2, CUI Weijia1,2, ZHANG Peng1,2|WEN Yuting1,2   

  1. 1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs &|Ministry of Education,
    Beijing 100875, China; |2. Key Laboratory of |Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,
    Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; |
    3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2009-11-25 Published:2009-11-25

Abstract:

Disaster loss is related to the pre-disaster economic development level, disaster types, post-disaster recovery strategies, disaster management ability and disaster insurance system perfection, combined with basic data accuracy, access difficulty and uncertainty of calibration, there is no effective indirect economic loss assessment methods until now. The present indirect loss estimation methods have some deficiencies: First, the definition of indirect economic losses composition, the spatial and temporal dimension of disasters were vague; secondly, the model assumptions are too much deviation from the actual economic situation in post-disaster; and finally, the model tended to ignore the dynamic changes characteristics of the post-disaster economic system flexibility and production capacity of the industrial sectors. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the dynamic mechanism of disasters impact on the economic, and set the relevant parameters reasonable so that the model is more realistic to reflect the real disaster impact, and estimate the indirect economic losses caused by disasters well for decision-making.

Key words: direct economic lossestimation methods, economic impact, indirect economic loss, natural disaster