PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 125-131.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.01.017

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Influencing Mechanism of Spatio-Temporal Variation of Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

LI Yurui1,2, LIU Yansui1, LONG Hualou1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China
  • Received:2008-10-01 Revised:2008-12-01 Online:2009-01-24 Published:2009-01-24


Food security is an extremely important factor which affects the regional and national socio-economic stability and development. By using county level statistic data from 1999 to 2006, this paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province based on panel data model. The results showed that: (1) grain planting area was a relatively active influencing factor on spatio-temporal variation of grain production in the study area; (2) urbanization and industrialization had a negative effect on grain production; and (3) agricultural policies which were devoted to promote grain production played an active role in the recovery phase. Moreover, the effects of these policies were different in southern, middle and northern Jiangsu and regions with different income levels of rural households. In detail, the effects on northern Jiangsu and regions with low income level were statistically significant but that on southern Jiangsu and regions with high income level were not the case. In view of the spatio-temporal variation of grain production and regional difference of policy effect, the development strategy of grain production and subsidy policy design should make a quick response. The macroscopic strategy of integrating urban-rural development and regional development provides an opportunity for improving the grain production and supply -demand balance of Jiangsu Province. Thus, for this purpose, the local government should protect the scarce farmland energetically, optimize the allocation of rural-urban land resources, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, and improve the subsidy policy of grain production.

Key words: grain production, influencing mechanism, Jiangsu Province, panel data model, spatio -temporal variation