大规模投资建设背景下城市过度扩张的约束机制——以无锡市为例
网络出版日期: 2010-10-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40771062).
Constraint Mechanism of Excessive Urban Spatial Expansion in the Context of Large-scale Urban Construction Investment: A Case Study of Wuxi
Online published: 2010-10-25
2008 年国家出台大规模投资建设经济刺激方案，在促进经济发展的同时，也极易造成城市空间过度扩张。本文以无锡市为案例建立城市建设投资与城市空间扩张Cobb-Douglas 生产函数修正模型(AC-D模型)，通过仿归一化方法提取1991、1998、2001、2005、2008 年TM遥感影像上城市空间扩张信息，并与5 年城市建设投资数据引入AC-D模型，验证城市建设投资对城市空间扩张的促进程度，同时计算城市建设投资的不同领域对城市空间扩张的贡献率。在此基础上，根据GDP、城市建成区面积和人口总量等约束条件，构建基于遗传算法的城市建设投资结构优化遗传算法模型(GA模型)，得出防止城市过度扩张的最佳城市建设投资规模及投资结构，旨在为城市建设投资方向的选择与城市空间可持续发展提供科学依据。
杨山,周蕾,陈升,季增民 . 大规模投资建设背景下城市过度扩张的约束机制——以无锡市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010 , 29(10) : 1193 -1200 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.10.006
The economic stimulus package with large-scale urban construction investment, launched by the government in 2008, will not only play a significant role in promoting the economic development, but also lead to the excessive urban spatial expansion. Due to the scarcity of arable land resources in China, the excessive expansion of urban space will be a threat to the national long-term interests. This paper analyzes the relationship between urban construction investment and urban spatial expansion by establishing an AC-D model, and taking Wuxi as an example, and verifies the role of urban construction investment in promoting urban spatial expansion. By entering the data of urban spatial expansion and statistics of Wuxi (1991, 1998, 2001, 2005, and 2008) into AC-D model, this paper calculates the effects of urban construction investment on urban expansion, and finds a significant role of urban construction investment in promoting urban spatial expansion. The elasticity coefficient (α) between total urban construction investment and urban spatial expansion reaches 0.619. Furthermore, the paper calculates the contribution rates of urban construction investment in different directions to urban spatial expansion in Wuxi, and the result shows that investment in different fields will cause different degrees of expansion of urban space. On the basis of these studies，this paper builds up an urban construction investment structure optimization GA model based on genetic algorithm, which is under the constraints of GDP, urban area and population. The results show that a moderate amount of investment in the five areas with significant impacts on urban spatial expansion of Wuxi is about 277.6 billion Yuan in 2009 and 2010. Investment in excess of this size will cause excessive urban spatial expansion. The investment required for manufacturing, transportation, warehousing and postal industries, real estate investment and construction should be properly controlled, and the investment in water conservancy, environment, education, health, social security and social welfare industries to protect and improve people's livelihood should be increased. So this paper provides a scientific ground for urban construction investment and sustainable development.
Key words： AC-D model; constrained mechanism; GA model; urban expansion; construction investment; Wuxi
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