为揭示中国资源环境与经济发展相互关系的时空演变特征或规律,借助“驱动力—状态—响应”(DSR)概念模型,构建区域资源环境负荷指数,应用脱钩理论及基于弹性分析法改进的脱钩程度判定标准,以1998-2008 年为时间界限,以T1 、T2 、T3 、T4 和T5 5 个时期为时间尺度,以全国及31 个省、直辖市、自治区为空间尺度,试图对中国及各省区资源环境负荷与经济发展脱钩程度,及时空演变特征或规律进行定量判定与综合分析。结果表明：①无论是从时间演变还是从空间演变来看,中国及其绝大多数省区资源环境负荷与经济发展的关系总体上处于相对脱钩状态,其演变主要从相对脱钩Ⅰ → 相对脱钩Ⅱ → 相对脱钩Ⅳ → 相对脱钩Ⅲ → 相对脱钩Ⅱ的呈近“正态分布曲线”的规律。②按东北、东部、中部和西部4 大地带划分,各省区资源环境与经济发展脱钩程度与全国比较的空间演变规律主要表现为,东北地区经济发展对资源环境的压力相对较低,但有上升趋势;东部、中部、西部地区区域发展的资源环境压力则随着经济的较快增长而逐渐下降,其下降速度的顺序为西部地区<中部地区<东部地区。随着中国区域科学发展的有力推进和经济发展方式的不断优化,资源环境与经济发展正呈现良性互动,二者有望实现绝对脱钩,这对中国实现资源环境与经济社会的全面协调可持续发展具有重大的推动作用。
The relationship between resource-environment and economic development has become a key research subject in regional sustainable development. Decoupling between them is a basic requirement to achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of resource-environment and economy-society, and is also an important goal of the regional scientific development. In order to explore the features or rules of the temporal- spatial evolution of the relationship between resource-environment and economic development in China, with the conceptual model of Driving Force-State-Response, this study constructed a regional resources and environmental load index. Using the decoupling theory and the criteria for decoupling degrees based on the improvement of elastic analysis, this paper attempted to make quantitative and comprehensive analyses of the features or rules of temporal-spatial evolution of decoupling degrees between resource-environment and economic development at national and provincial scales, with a time span from 1998 to 2008. The results show that: (1) no matter what the evolution of the time or the space is, the relationship between resource-environment load and economic development was generally in a state of relative decoupling in the country and most of provinces, the order of the evolution was relative decoupling Ⅰ→relative decoupling Ⅱ→relative decoupling Ⅳ→relative decoupling Ⅲ→relative decoupling Ⅱ, and the changes were close to the“normal distribution curve”; (2) according to the division of the four areas: northeastern, eastern, central and western parts of China, the spatial evolution rule of decoupling degrees'comparison of resource-environment and GDP between the nation and the provinces showed that the resource-environmental costs of economic development were lower in the northeast region than in the other regions of China. The resource-environmental costs in the eastern, central and western regions with the rapid economic development showed a declining trend. The resource-environment and the economic development are showing positive interaction in China and they are expected to reach a state of absolute decoupling, which will be helpful for achieving comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development in China.
[1] 潘玉君, 武友德. 地理科学导论. 北京: 科学出版社,2009: 251-252.
[2] 中共中央宣传部. 科学发展观学习读本. 北京: 学习出版社, 2006: 1-13.
[3] 李鹤, 张平宇, 刘文新. 1990 年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调度评价. 地理科学, 2007, 27(4): 486-492.
[4] 苏飞, 张平宇. 基于生态系统服务价值变化的环境与经济协调发展评价: 以大庆市为例. 地理科学进展, 2009,28(3): 471-477.
[5] 王兆锋, 张镱锂, 孙威, 等. 县域经济与环境协调发展分析方法: 以西藏自治区为例.地理科学进展, 2010, 29(7): 797-802.
[6] 崔峰. 上海市旅游经济与生态环境协调发展度研究. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2008, 18(5): 64-69.
[7] 唐宏, 杨德刚, 乔旭宁, 等. 天山北坡区域发展与生态环境协调度评价. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(5): 805-813.
[8] 胡兵辉, 廖允成, 尚爱军, 等. 毛乌素沙地农业生态系统SEREn 协调发展的时序测度. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(7): 1200-1210.
[9] 柯健, 李超. 基于DEA聚类分析的中国各地区资源、环境与经济协调发展研究. 中国软科学, 2005, (2):144-148.
[10] 樊杰, 千庆兰. 我国东部沿海重点地区经济发展与资源环境相互作用关系的比较研究. 自然资源学报,2004, 19(1): 96-105.
[11] 彭立颖, 童行伟, 沈永林. 上海市经济增长与环境污染的关系研究. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2008, 18(3):186-194.
[12] 段晓峰, 许学工. 山东省污染物排放与经济发展水平的关系. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(3): 342-346.
[13] 戴钰, 刘亦文. 基于IPAT模型的长株潭城市群经济增长与能源消耗的实证研究. 经济数学, 2009(2): 65-71.
[14] 罗宏, 舒俭民, 吕连宏, 等. 基于IPAT模型的苏州市环境压力—响应分析. 环境科学研究, 2010(1): 116-119.
[15] 王立猛, 何康林. 基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异: 以1952-2003 年能源消费为例.自然资源学报,2006, 21(6): 862-869.
[16] 王琳, 吴业, 杨桂山, 等. 基于STIRPAT模型的耕地面积变化及其影响因素. 农业工程学报, 2008, 24(12):196-200.
[17] OECD. Decoupling: A conceptual overview. Paris:OECD, 2000: 5.
[18] Sigrid S. Delinking economic growth from environmentaldegradation: A literature survey on the environmentalKuznets Curve Hypothesis. Wirtschafts Universitat WienWorking Paper, 1999(6): 1-24.
[19] Tapio P. Decoupling has begun in finland: Economicgrowth, traffic volume growth and the CO2 policy ofEU15 and Finland 1970-2001. Turku: Tutu Publications,2003: 1-17.
[20] Climent F, Pardo A. Decoupling factors on the energy-output linkage: The Spanish case. Energy Policy,2007, 35(1): 522-528.
[21] 赵一平, 孙启宏, 段宁. 中国经济发展与能源消费响应关系研究: 基于相对“脱钩”与“复钩”理论的实证研究.科研管理, 2006, 27(3): 128-134.
[22] 王崇梅. 中国经济增长与能源消耗脱钩分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(3): 35-37.
[23] 陈百明, 杜红亮. 试论耕地占用与GDP 增长的脱钩研究. 资源科学, 2006, 28(5): 36-42.
[24] 宋伟, 陈百明, 陈曦炜. 常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩(decoupling) 评价. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9):1532-1540.
[25] 杨克, 陈百明, 宋伟. 河北省耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩分析. 资源科学, 2009, 31(11): 1940-1946.
[26] 冯艳芬, 王芳. 基于脱钩理论的广州市耕地消耗与经济增长总量评估. 国土与自然资源研究, 2010(1): 36-37.
[27] OECD. Indicators to measure decoupling of environmentalpressure from economic growth. Paris: OECD, 2002.
[28] Vehmas J, Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J. Global trends oflinking environmental stress and economic growth.Turku: Tutu Publications, 2003: 1-25.
[29] Wei J, Zhou J, He X B, et al. Decoupling soil erosion andhuman activities on the Chinese Loess Plateau in the20th century. Ecological Indicators, 2007, 7(1): 123-132.
[30] 王虹, 王建强, 赵涛. 我国经济发展与能源、环境的“脱钩”“复钩”轨迹研究. 统计与决策, 2009(17): 113-115.
[31] 李效顺, 曲福田, 郭忠兴, 等. 城乡建设用地变化的脱钩研究. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2008, 18(5): 179-184.
[32] de Bruyn S M, Opschoor J B. Developments in thethroughput-income relationship: Theoretical and empiricalobservations. Ecological Economics, 1997, 20(3):255-268.
[33] 钟太洋, 黄贤金, 韩立, 等. 资源环境领域脱钩分析研究进展. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(8): 1400-1412.
[34] Tapio P. Towards a theory of decoupling: Degrees of decouplingin the EU and the case of road traffic in Finlandbetween 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 2005, 12(2):137-151.
[35] 于法稳. 经济发展与资源环境之间脱钩关系的实证研究. 内蒙古财经学院学报, 2009(3): 29-34.
[36] 钟太洋, 黄贤金, 王柏源. 经济增长与建设用地扩张的脱钩分析. 自然资源报, 2010, 25(1): 18-31.
[37] 谢鸿宇, 王羚郦, 陈贤生. 生态足迹评价模型的改进与应用. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2008: 1-11.
[38] 2050 中国能源和碳排放研究课题组. 2050 中国能源和碳排放报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009: 119-120.
