地理科学进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 147-160.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.014
收稿日期:
2020-04-17
修回日期:
2020-11-03
出版日期:
2021-01-28
发布日期:
2021-03-28
作者简介:
孙彪(1996— ),男,安徽怀宁人,硕士生,主要从事城乡发展与空间规划研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
SUN Biao1,2(), YANG Shan1,2,*(
)
Received:
2020-04-17
Revised:
2020-11-03
Online:
2021-01-28
Published:
2021-03-28
Supported by:
摘要:
近年来,城市创新投入要素在长三角一体化进程中的作用不断增加。论文基于2010—2017年长三角地区各城市空间面板数据,利用空间计量模型与马尔可夫链等方法,测度创新投入要素的经济溢出效应并揭示长三角一体化背景下创新外溢对区域经济趋同格局的影响。结果表明:① 长三角地区城市创新投入和创新产出均对城市自身经济增长表现出显著的直接效应,创新投入的溢出效应显著且大于其直接效应,而创新产出的溢出效应不显著;② 受创新投入要素影响,长三角地区经济增长存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,但毗邻不同创新投入类型的城市对本地经济增长呈现出“高促进、低抑制”的态势;③ 长三角一体化经济格局呈现由中心区高水平趋同向外围低水平趋同转变的特征,且具有明显的空间转移惰性,创新投入外溢作用将加剧区域经济增长的“马太效应”;④ 经济增长类型转移的城市集中于省域边界,在局部溢出作用下表现出复杂的转移机理。基于创新局部外溢促进经济俱乐部趋同的分析结果,对长三角区域一体化发展提出针对性建议。
孙彪, 杨山. 长三角地区城市创新投入要素的经济溢出效应及趋同格局[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 147-160.
SUN Biao, YANG Shan. Economic spillover effects and convergence patterns of urban innovation input features in the Yangtze River Delta region[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 147-160.
表1
2010—2017年长三角地区创新要素与经济增长的Moran's I
年份 | 单变量Moran's I值 | 双变量Moran's I值 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
创新投入 | 创新产出 | 经济增长 | 经济增长与创新投入 | 经济增长与创新产出 | ||
2010 | 0.5260*** | 0.4381*** | 0.4938*** | 0.4990*** | 0.4927*** | |
2011 | 0.5793*** | 0.4938*** | 0.5355*** | 0.5439*** | 0.5303*** | |
2012 | 0.5591*** | 0.4784*** | 0.5308*** | 0.5284*** | 0.5222*** | |
2013 | 0.5307*** | 0.4662*** | 0.5104*** | 0.5075*** | 0.5179*** | |
2014 | 0.5510*** | 0.5687*** | 0.5177*** | 0.5184*** | 0.5623*** | |
2015 | 0.5814*** | 0.5644*** | 0.5815*** | 0.5713*** | 0.5696*** | |
2016 | 0.5937*** | 0.5223*** | 0.6073*** | 0.5899*** | 0.5459*** | |
2017 | 0.5748*** | 0.5096*** | 0.5772*** | 0.5675*** | 0.5206*** |
表2
OLS与SPDM模型回归结果
变量 | OLS | 变量 | SPDM |
---|---|---|---|
lnPRD | 0.2161*** | lnPRD | 0.1154*** |
lnPPA | 0.0395** | lnPPA | 0.0357** |
lnPFAI | 0.3344*** | lnPFAI | 0.2575*** |
lnPFDI | -0.0463*** | lnPFDI | 0.0136 |
lnPHC | 0.4425*** | lnPHC | 0.4699*** |
Adjust R2 | 0.8632 | W×lnPRD | 0.0854* |
LM-spatial lag | 8.6276*** | W×lnPPA | -0.0143 |
Robust LM-spatial lag | 0.5217 | W×lnPFDI | -0.1395** |
LM-spatial error | 30.9958*** | W×lnPFAI | -0.0951*** |
Robust LM-spatial error | 22.8899*** | W×lnPHC | 0.0027 |
Loglikelyhood | 358.4237 | W×lnPGDP | 0.4430*** |
Adjust R2 | 0.8876 | ||
Wald-spatial lag | 23.3299*** | ||
LR-spatial lag | 26.2797*** | ||
Wald-spatial error | 29.9622*** | ||
LR-spatial error | 36.4688*** | ||
Hausman | 930.5488*** | ||
Loglikelyhood | 406.8503 |
表6
创新投入条件下空间“X”马尔可夫转移矩阵
邻域环境 | t时期 | t+1时期 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
低水平 | 较低水平 | 较高水平 | 高水平 | 转移数量 | ||
低水平 | 低水平 | 0.9500 | 0.0500 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
较低水平 | 0.0392 | 0.9020 | 0.0588 | 0 | 51 | |
较高水平 | 0 | 0.3333 | 0.6667 | 0 | 9 | |
高水平 | 0 | 0.2000 | 0 | 0.8000 | 5 | |
较低水平 | 低水平 | 0.8571 | 0.1429 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
较低水平 | 0 | 0.9643 | 0.0357 | 0 | 28 | |
较高水平 | 0 | 0.2857 | 0.7143 | 0 | 7 | |
高水平 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
较高水平 | 低水平 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
较低水平 | 0 | 0.9200 | 0.0800 | 0 | 25 | |
较高水平 | 0 | 0.2000 | 0.8000 | 0 | 10 | |
高水平 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | |
高水平 | 低水平 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
较低水平 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
较高水平 | 0 | 0 | 0.8649 | 0.1351 | 37 | |
高水平 | 0 | 0 | 0.1250 | 0.8750 | 40 |
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