杨大文
, 徐宗学, 刘星才
YANG Dawen, XU Zongxue, LIU Xingcai
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2017-12-25
修回日期: 2018-01-19
网络出版日期: 2018-01-28
版权声明: 2018 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
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作者简介:
作者简介：杨大文(1966-),男,四川成都人,教授,主要从事水文水资源研究,E-mail: yangdw@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn。
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摘要
水文学是研究地球上水的起源、存在、分布、循环运动等变化规律,并运用这些规律为人类服务的知识体系。水文学研究经历了由经验到理论、由简单过程到复杂系统、由定性描述到定量模拟的发展历程,其学科体系演进与科学技术进步及社会发展需求紧密联系,并由此衍生出诸如生态水文学、气象水文学、冰冻圈水文学、遥感水文学、同位素水文学、城市水文学、社会水文学等多种交叉研究领域与分支学科。当今水文学研究在水文多尺度观测、陆面—水文—社会耦合模拟及多源观测—模型同化技术等领域取得显著进展,水文学研究的广度和深度不断拓展。未来水文学研究将面向陆地水文循环的变化规律及其效应,重点关注水文循环变化特征和机理、水文循环变化趋势预估及水文循环变化的自然和社会影响等前沿课题;从原有就水论水研究思路转向在自然地理综合分析框架下以水循环为纽带开展的多尺度、多过程集成研究。
关键词：
Abstract
Hydrology is the science that describes the continuous movement of water, the related biogeochemical and geophysical processes, and their interactions with the environment. Hydrology research has evolved from experience-based to theories, from single process to complex systems, and from qualitative interpretations to quantitative models. The progress and evolution of hydrology has been intimately intertwined with the scientific and technological progresses and socioeconomic development, which creates many branches and interdisciplinary areas of hydrology, such as ecohydrology, hydrometeorology, cryosphere hydrology, hydrologic remote sensing, isotope hydrology, urban hydrology, and socio-hydrology. Hydrology research has made notable progress in the fields of multi-scale observations, coupled land surface-hydrology-society modeling, and multi-source data and model assimilation techniques, which further expands the connotation of hydrological study. In the future, hydrology research will focus on the characteristics and mechanism of the changes of water cycle, prediction of the changes of water cycle, and natural and social impact assessment of the changes of water cycle, in order to offer sustainable solutions to water security. In summary, the research paradigm of hydrology would shift from the traditionally self-focused approaches to the emerging integrated approaches that focus on all the water-related processes across multiple scales and sectors in the earth system.
Keywords：
水文学是研究地球上水的起源、存在、分布、循环运动等变化规律,并运用这些规律为人类服务的知识体系。水文学以地球表面不同时间和空间尺度的水文循环过程为核心研究内容,旨在揭示包括降水、蒸发、下渗、土壤水运动及径流等过程在内的水循环运动基本规律。一方面,水文循环是连接大气圈、岩石圈和生物圈等多圈层地表过程的纽带,因此水文学研究是自然地理学的重要分支领域,为推动自然地理学科发展发挥重大作用(Anderson et al, 2005);另一方面,水资源又是支撑社会经济发展的基本条件,科学认识水文循环变化规律是对水资源进行合理开发利用的前提,因此水文学发展也具有面向生产实践的长期现实需求。从工程水文计算到水系统综合模拟,水文学研究的发展历史表明,认识水文循环对人类社会的可持续发展至关重要,对水文循环变化规律的掌握程度极大地影响人类文明与社会经济的发展(Delli Priscoli, 2000)。
水文循环决定水资源时空分布及其支撑下的地表环境演变(丁永建, 2013),但由于水文循环与其他自然地理过程之间存在复杂的相互作用,不同自然气候与地理条件等因素导致全球水资源分布具有显著的时空变异特征(Zhang et al, 2011)。与此同时,气候变化导致陆地水文循环发生显著变化,极端水文事件(如洪涝、干旱)呈现增加或加重的变化趋势(Field et al, 2012);社会经济快速发展带来人类活动影响日益加剧,世界许多地区的人类用水需求仍在大幅增长,进而导致区域性缺水问题严重(Oki et al, 2006)。综上所述,全球水文循环受到气候变化与人类活动的显著影响,水文循环变化及其水资源效应是未来水文学研究面临的重大挑战。相关水问题的解决既涉及水的自然属性,也涉及水的社会属性,这就要求开展自然和人文科学的综合交叉研究。地理学的理论、方法与技术为解决水的可持续性问题提供了科学基础。为更好地服务于人类社会可持续发展,实现人与自然的和谐发展,迫切需要拓展水文学研究的广度和深度,加强与其他相关学科领域的交叉研究,以自然地理综合分析方法来科学认知全球变化背景下的水文循环变化规律及其效应。本文从自然地理综合分析的视角,在简要回顾水文学研究发展特征与研究现状的基础上,重点阐述与水文循环变化相关的水文学研究前沿问题。
水文学研究的发展与人类生产实践息息相关,人类生存和社会发展需求是推动水文学发展的根本驱动力,而技术进步则为水文学研究的发展奠定基础条件。历史上,人类在生活和生产活动中逐步认识水文现象、水文过程及其变化规律,并将理论化的水文循环规律用于指导生产实践,水文学即在如此循环往复的过程中不断向前发展(徐宗学等, 2010)。概括而言,水文学研究经历了由经验到理论、由简单过程到复杂系统、由定性描述到定量模拟的发展历程。水文学研究由现象观察上升到理论研究的过程也并非孤立发生的,很大程度上是由多个相关学科(如气象科学、生态科学和社会科学等)的技术进步共同推进的(王根绪等, 2001)。多学科技术发展与交叉促使水文学研究由传统工程水文学对降水—产流—汇流等单一水文过程的观测与模拟,发展为如今包括气候—水文—生态—社会综合系统(Tang et al, 2016)、土壤—植物—大气—连续体SPAC(刘昌明等, 2009)、水—能源—粮食纽带关系等(Bazilian et al, 2011),强调自然地理综合分析的研究方法体系。同时,传统水文循环研究与多学科领域交叉,进而由此衍生出多个水文分支学科,如生态水文学(Eagleson, 2005)、气象水文学(Shuttleworth, 2012)、冰冻圈水文学(秦大河, 2017)、城市水文学(Delleur, 2003)以及社会水文学(Sivapalan et al, 2012)等,极大地拓展了水文学研究的广度和深度。
为深入认识水文循环的变化规律,模拟预测水文循环的变化过程,定量分析工具演变是水文学研究发展的重要脉络之一。水文统计是早期学者开展定量水文研究的重要工具,在水文情势预测、水资源评价管理和综合系统规划等方面发挥了重要作用(Yule, 1927; Walker, 1931)。例如,引入混沌动力学方法研究水文系统的混沌特性(Hense et al, 1987),采用小波分析法揭示水文序列的非平稳性(Foufoula-Georgiou et al, 1994; Kumar et al, 1997),以及利用模糊数学、信息熵方法开展水文预报及其不确定性研究(Singh, 1997; 陈守煜, 2005)等。20世纪50年代以来,流域水文模型成为认识复杂水文循环规律的重要分析工具,其结构经由早期基于集总式结构的“黑箱”模型、概念性模型,逐渐发展到具有分布式结构的物理性模型(徐宗学, 2010)。相比于集总式模型,分布式水文模型不仅能充分考虑下垫面空间异质性对水文循环过程的影响,还加强了对蒸散发、土壤水分运动等关键过程的刻画描述,在揭示水文循环的时空变化特征和规律方面更具优势。近年来,气候模式中陆面过程模型发展也为水文模型提供了更好的陆—气交互过程参数化方案,其发展大致经历了水桶(Bucket)模型、土壤—植被—大气系统的水热传输(Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer, SVAT)模型,以及考虑多过程耦合的陆面过程模型,如简单生物圈(Simple Biosphere Model, SiB)模型(Sellers et al, 1996)、CLM(Community Land Model)模型(Dai et al, 2003)等。
水文学研究的发展具有鲜明的支撑技术烙印,科学技术进步极大地丰富了水文学研究手段和资料。18-19世纪期间,水文观测技术在工业革命影响之下得到迅速发展,一系列观测仪器的发明为水文要素观测与定量分析研究奠定了基础,进而推动了水文学理论得到飞跃性的发展(比斯瓦斯, 2007)。20世纪以来,计算机和遥感技术的发展显著地提高了水文计算模拟能力,逐渐积累的卫星遥感数据也为获取大范围的水文参数提供了基础,因此在此期间水文模型得到迅速发展(Döll et al, 2016)。20世纪末期至21世纪以来,气候/天气预报技术的发展在一定程度上推动了水文预报技术的再次发展,使得大范围中长期水文预报成为可能(Mitchell et al, 2004)。总的来看,现代水文学研究发展的技术支撑主要包括计算机和遥感技术(Freeze et al, 1969)、同位素追踪技术(Kendall et al, 1998)、气候模式(Field et al, 2012)以及地球大数据(McCabe et al, 2017)等。在上述新兴科学技术发展推动下,水文学研究发展呈现出多过程、多尺度和复杂系统研究的特征(吴绍洪等, 2015)。同时通过技术创新也催生了若干新的水文分支学科,如遥感水文学、同位素水文学等。在不断创新的观测与模拟技术支持下,水文研究的尺度和范围更加广泛,从室内实验尺度、流域尺度逐渐扩展到大陆尺度甚至全球尺度(傅国斌等, 2001; Bierkens, 2015),与自然地理系统的相互作用研究也越来越深入。
目前全球气候变化及人类活动影响日益加剧,其双重驱动下的陆地水文循环正发生深刻变化,水文学研究逐渐聚焦于变化环境下的水文循环变化规律与机理研究。通过回顾水文学研究的发展过程可以看出,水文模型与观测技术是支撑水文学研究的关键。因此,主要围绕观测与模拟,对当前水文学研究现状及进展总结如下：
水文观测是认识水文循环变化规律、发展水文模型的重要基础。依赖于水文和气象部门建立的传统地面站点网络,通过长期观测记录积累与整理,已形成包括全球径流数据中心、美国国家环境预报中心、欧盟水与全球变化项目及美国普林斯顿大学等多种来源的全球和区域气象水文观测或再分析数据资料(Kalnay et al, 1996; Sheffield et al, 2006; Weedon et al, 2011)。此外,国内外还陆续开展了诸如全球能量与水文循环实验GEWEX (Chahine, 1992)、陆地水分—能量—碳通量大型观测网络FLUXNET (Baldocchi et al, 2001)、AmeriFlux (Boden et al, 2013)、ChinaFLUX (Yu et al, 2006)等多种大型观测计划。这些水分、能量、碳通量观测资料为认识陆地水文循环变化规律与机理提供了最基础的数据支撑。与此同时,日益成熟的遥感技术已广泛应用于陆地水文循环研究,包括陆地表面的地形地貌、植被分布类型、土地利用等基础地理信息,以及诸如降水量、蒸散发、土壤水分、水储量变化等水文循环变量的动态监测信息(Wood et al, 2011; Lettenmaier et al, 2015)。
水文模型是揭示陆地水循环变化机理、模拟和预估变化效应的主要工具。水文循环变化机制涉及多种自然和人为过程,包括生态过程与水文过程双向耦合机制(Rodríguez-Iturbe et al, 2004)、陆—气水热交互过程与机制(Dickinson, 1995)、冰冻圈水文过程和高原湖泊变化机制(Strum, 2015)、城市化对地表产汇流机制的影响(Smith et al, 2013)、人—水协同演化机制(Sivapalan et al, 2015)等。随着人们对水文循环变化机理认识的深入,水文模型也逐渐趋于复杂,实现多要素、多过程的综合模拟成为现阶段水文模型发展的目标。例如,传统水文模型对植被生理、生态作用描述较为简略,但实际上气候变化对植被生理过程及水分利用效率均有影响,因此发展生态—水文模型是当前陆地水文循环模拟研究的热点之一(杨大文等, 2010)。同时,由于传统水文模型还对地表水分能量交换、碳氮物质循环以及其他生物化学过程考虑不足,通过耦合陆面模型中相关过程描述进而发展陆面水文模型,可提升变化环境下对水文循环变化模拟和预测能力(Wagener et al, 2010; Sheng et al, 2017),这也是当前陆地水文循环研究的重要发展方向(Tang et al, 2016)。受益于前期水文模型发展和观测资料的长期积累,在水文模型中耦合人类用水参数化方案(如水库、灌溉)成为可能,从而可以定量评估人类活动对水文过程的影响(Döll et al, 2003)。此类模型有“自然—社会”二元水循环模型(王浩等, 2013)、耦合灌溉参数化方案的DBH模型(Tang et al, 2006),集成农作物需水、人类用水、河道汇流及水库调度模块的H08模型(Hanasaki et al, 2008)和LHF模型(Pokhrel et al, 2013, 2014)等。模型参数是影响模型模拟和预测能力的重要因素(Duan et al, 1992),然而日益复杂的模型结构常包含过于冗余的模型参数,在观测数据信息有限的条件下,导致模型模拟存在显著的不确定性。为此,近年来发展出广义似然不确定性估计(Beven et al, 1992)、贝叶斯概率模型估计和蒙特卡罗模拟(Vrugt et al, 2003)等方法,用于模型参数不确定性分析(Madsen, 2000)。
多源观测和模型数据同化是提高陆地水文循环模拟以及预测精度的重要途径。日益丰富的多源观测数据是水文学向大数据时代发展的必然趋势,采用不同来源、不同时空尺度的观测数据可对陆地水文循环进行多尺度解析与集成(Gupta et al, 2014)。水文模型因存在参数、输入以及结构误差而不可避免地表现出不确定性(Moradkhani et al, 2008),而数据同化技术则可利用多源观测信息来约束、修正和优化模拟状态变量,进而提高水文循环模拟和预报精度。近年来,包括集合卡尔曼滤波EnKF、集合调整卡尔曼滤波EAKF(Anderson, 2001)、集合平方根滤波EnSRF(Whitaker et al, 2002)等在内的多种数据同化算法在水文循环模拟中得到广泛应用,通过同化土壤含水量、径流量、蒸散发等观测信息预期可改善模拟和预报精度(Liu et al, 2012)。但事实上由于模型结构和同化算法存在差异,实际改进效果也不尽相同,因此结合流域水文特征和多源观测数据实际情况,选择合理的模型结构及有效的同化算法成为研究重点(Liu et al, 2012; Pathiraja et al, 2016; Rasmussen et al, 2016)。未来伴随大数据、人工智能、机器学习等领域的新理论和新技术,综合水文循环多源观测和多过程模拟的数据同化技术将成为未来水文学发展的重要方向(National Research Council, 2012)。
长期以来,水文学研究多集中于认识不同时空尺度的水量平衡及水文循环要素特征,但伴随全球变化影响日益加剧,水文循环变化及其导致的水资源时空分布格局演变将与社会经济发展密切相关,因此未来水文学研究前沿将逐渐转向关注陆地水文循环的变化规律及其水资源效应,其关键科学问题可归纳为以下3个方面：
检测与归因研究是认识水文循环变化规律的重要手段。过去几十年,全球气候系统发生了显著的变化(IPCC, 2013),陆面水文循环过程受到不同程度的影响,但降水、蒸发及径流等水文循环要素的具体变化规律仍不甚清楚,其背后的机制也有待揭示。研究发现,伴随全球气温上升,过去几十年全球降雨却没有发生显著变化,但趋势分析结果在某种程度上也取决于所用的数据集(Gu et al, 2007; Ren et al, 2013)。理论上,气温上升会导致蒸发能力和实际蒸发量增强,但全球不同地区蒸发皿长期观测资料显示蒸发量却呈现下降趋势(Roderick et al, 2004; Roderick et al, 2007),即所谓“蒸发悖论”(Roderick et al, 2002)。径流量通常受到气象驱动、人类活动和陆表覆被变化等多种因素的影响,其变化趋势因数据来源而异,不确定性较大而难以准确评估(Labat et al, 2004; Dai, 2011)。受限于观测数据的覆盖度和数据质量,当前全面评估水文循环变化特征还存在较大的不确定性。在全球降雨、径流、干旱面积等关键水文参量的整体变化趋势方面,采用不同的数据和分析可能会得到不同的结论。进一步加强水文气象观测能力建设,建立长期水文一致的水热通量数据集,有效整合已有的观测数据,是揭示水文循环变化特征和机理的基础。
模型是预估水文循环变化趋势的重要工具。评估全球变化对水文循环的影响,对人类科学认识气候变化对陆面水文过程的影响、制定适应性应对措施具有重大战略意义(Vörösmarty et al, 2000),因此受到国内外学者的高度重视,如跨部门影响模型比较计划(ISIMIP)(Warszawski et al, 2014)。此类评估工作的基本框架为：将大气环流模型(GCMs)提供的未来不同情景下的气候输出降尺度处理到与陆面水文模型相匹配的时空精度,然后驱动陆面水文模型估算未来不同情景下的水文循环变化(Haddeland et al, 2014; Schewe et al, 2014)。在此过程中,降尺度方法选择、水文模型选择以及预估结果不确定分析等受到关注(徐宗学等, 2016),但目前预估结果仍存在较大不确定性。基于多个气候模式预估结果显示,未来全球极端降水将随升温而增加,但不同模式之间结果差异显著,表现出降水预估结果可靠性较差(Westra et al, 2014)。同样,多模式评估结果显示全球径流随升温大体呈线性变化,但变化趋势存在区域差异(Milly et al, 2005; Zhang et al, 2014)。IPCC AR5影响评估模型比较项目(ISIMIP)结果显示,全球水文模型导致的不确定性甚至超过了全球气候模式的不确定性(Schewe et al, 2014)。近几十年来,伴随社会经济迅速发展和人口数量剧增,人类活动也成为驱动水文循环变化的关键因子,如何区分变化环境下自然与人类活动的影响是研究热点。传统方法通常是将两者看作相对独立的组分,通过设计敏感性对比实验,简单分离两者的相对贡献(Tang et al, 2008)。然而,地球系统是个复杂的巨系统,陆地水文循环与陆地表层其他系统间存在复杂的交互过程(Vitousek et al, 1997)。例如,由于人类砍伐树木,而导致流域下垫面发生改变;下垫面变化不仅直接影响地表产汇流过程,还能通过反馈作用影响当地气候系统,进而改变降雨—径流过程(DeFries et al, 2004; Brown et al, 2005; Davidson et al, 2012)。为此,发展集成自然—社会—生态等多过程的陆面水文模型,有助于准确评估环境变化条件下陆地水文循环的变化趋势。
全球环境变化将导致陆地水文循环发生改变,进而引起水资源及洪水、干旱等水灾害时空分布变化,导致全球和各国家水安全面临诸多挑战(Wheater, 2015)。研究表明,气候变化导致极端降水事件增加可引发洪涝灾害风险升高(IPCC, 2013);由于温度升高,冰川退缩及冰雪融化可能导致径流情势发生改变(Barnett et al, 2008),而农业灌溉用水增加将导致水资源短缺(Yin et al, 2017);海平面上升则可能带来土地淹没、盐渍化、海水入侵等一系列风险(丁一汇, 2008);此外,环境变化还可能引起或加剧东南亚、南亚、中亚、北非等地区的水冲突(Kreamer, 2012)。同时,未来水资源管理将从单一部门水安全评价转变为跨部门水安全与水资源管理,水资源安全不单单是水资源系统自身的安全,还涉及粮食、生态、能源等方面安全,影响人类正常生产、生活以及社会安定(Cosgrove et al, 2015; McLaughlin et al, 2015),需要深入研究水系统安全与粮食、能源、生态环境安全协同变化机制,注重揭示水资源—能源—粮食、气候—水资源—能源—生态等的纽带关系。
展望未来,伴随科学技术进步与社会需求增长,水文学研究将发挥越来越重要的作用;但同时气候变化、人类活动影响日益加剧,也使得水文学研究面临一系列重大挑战。水文学研究的核心仍是水文循环变化规律,但全球变化背景下亟需提升对水文循环变化与环境变化之间相互作用的科学认识,并加强以水循环为纽带的自然地理多过程综合研究,以准确预估其变化效应。
(1) 水文循环变化与气候变化的相互作用将是重要研究内容。陆地水文循环过程受到大气环流水汽输送及其变化的直接影响,未来伴随水体同位素技术不断发展,可进一步明晰大气环流过程中水汽输送途径,大尺度水汽来源解析与变化,以及陆—气耦合关系等关键科学问题。冰冻圈是水文循环变化与气候变化相互作用的敏感区域,未来冰冻圈水文过程研究将进一步向机理分析、数值模拟方向发展,野外观测与数值模拟将更有效结合;利用遥感技术手段加强对冰冻圈水文循环变化的监测,进而开展冰冻圈—水圈—大气圈—生物圈相互作用的模拟研究。陆地水文循环变化与人类社会发展密切相关,未来陆—气耦合模型还需加强陆面过程模型中对水文循环时空演变的描述,陆地水文循环模拟精度尚待提高,同时需要进一步区分自然变率或外界强迫引起的气候变化以准确预估未来水文循环变化。
(2) 人类活动对水文循环变化的影响作用日益凸显,亟需发展能定量描述人类用水活动过程的社会—水文模型。目前仅有部分水文模型能够考虑社会经济取用水、工程调节等人类用水活动,未来开展社会需水—工程调节—生态用水等关键过程综合集成研究仍是水文学发展面临的重大挑战(汤秋鸿等, 2015; 吴绍洪等, 2015)。
(3) 加强水文循环与环境变化相互作用综合集成研究,是准确预估未来水文循环变化效应的基础。以自然地理综合分析视角来看,未来水文学研究将逐渐发展转变为强调多要素、多过程、多尺度、多界面、自然和社会科学的综合交叉集成研究范式,以准确评估水文循环变化及其效应。例如,围绕水循环变化及其伴生生态安全问题,研究多尺度生态过程与水文循环耦合机理及其模拟方法是发展趋势,但其核心是统筹考虑水文循环与气候、自然地理等多圈层、多要素的耦合关系,包括：气候变化和水分胁迫对生态水文过程的影响、气候—土壤—植被系统与水文相互作用机理、气候变化对作物耗水与产量的影响、生态系统对气候变化和人类活动的响应、植被变化对水文过程的影响等方面。极端水文事件变化及其风险评估是水文循环变化效应评估的另一重要方面,加强综合集成研究也是提升水文气象极端事件可预报性的重要途径。在全球变化背景下,需从海—陆—气相互作用的综合分析角度来综合研究洪水、干旱、台风暴雨等极端事件的发生和演变机理,同时需要综合使用雷达、卫星等多源观测技术提高对气象水文极端事件的监测能力。
总之,水文循环与地球表层各圈层相互联系,涉及要素众多、过程复杂,水文学研究从单纯考虑流域降雨—径流关系逐渐扩展到考虑大气—水—生物等各圈层耦合作用,研究手段也趋于复杂化、多样化。伴随人们对水文循环过程更全面、更深入的认识,以及观测和模拟技术的发展,水文学关注点正在从就水论水,转向在自然地理综合分析框架下以水文循环为纽带开展多尺度、多过程的现代水文综合研究。研究问题呈现明显的多学科交叉趋势,所采用的技术手段更加先进与新颖,这些转变将给今后几十年的水文研究带来全新的面貌,促进水文学在自然地理综合研究中发挥日益重要的作用。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer [J].https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under a projected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCC HadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrology model that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologic changes in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assuming unchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and will the groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conducted four 10yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without the groundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET will increase due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite a decrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain atmosphere or demand-limited. Second, in the eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despite increasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soil water or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the eastern Amazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth, river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in the southeastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we found that the slow soil drainage constrained by a shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress, particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if the groundwater buffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than projected by most climate models.
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| [64] |
The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle: 3. Influence on terrestrial water storage computations and comparison with GRACE [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50335 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
explore the mechanisms whereby groundwater influences terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Amazon using GRACE observations and two contrasting versions of the LEAF-Hydro-Flood hydrological model: one with and the other without an interactive groundwater. We find that, first, where the water table is shallow as in northwestern Amazonia and floodplains elsewhere, subsurface stores (vadose zone and groundwater) are nearly saturated year-round, hence river and flooding dominate TWS variation; where the water table is deep as in southeastern Amazonia, the large subsurface storage capacity holds the infiltrated water longer before releasing it to streams, hence the subsurface storage dominates TWS variation. Second, over the whole Amazon, the subsurface water contribution far exceeds surface water contribution to total TWS variations. Based on LEAF-Hydro-Flood simulations, 71% of TWS change is from subsurface water, 24% from flood water, and 5% from water in river channels. Third, the subsurface store includes two competing terms, soil water in the vadose zone and groundwater below the water table. As the water table rises, the length of vadose zone is shortened and hence the change in groundwater store is accompanied by an opposite change in soil water store resulting in their opposite phase and contributions to total TWS. We conclude that the inclusion of a prognostic groundwater store and its interactions with the vadose zone, rivers, and floodplains in hydrological simulations enhances seasonal amplitudes and delays seasonal peaks of TWS anomaly, leading to an improved agreement with GRACE observations.
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| [1] |
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| [65] |
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-8131-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The use of bias-aware Kalman filters for estimating and correcting observation bias in groundwater head observations is evaluated using both synthetic and real observations. In the synthetic test, groundwater head observations with a constant bias and unbiased stream discharge observations are assimilated in a catchment-scale integrated hydrological model with the aim of updating stream discharge and groundwater head, as well as several model parameters relating to both streamflow and groundwater modelling. The coloured noise Kalman filter (ColKF) and the separate-bias Kalman filter (SepKF) are tested and evaluated for correcting the observation biases. The study found that both methods were able to estimate most of the biases and that using any of the two bias estimation methods resulted in significant improvements over using a bias-unaware Kalman filter. While the convergence of the ColKF was significantly faster than the convergence of the SepKF, a much larger ensemble size was required as the estimation of biases would otherwise fail. Real observations of groundwater head and stream discharge were also assimilated, resulting in improved streamflow modelling in terms of an increased Nash utcliffe coefficient while no clear improvement in groundwater head modelling was observed. Both the ColKF and the SepKF tended to underestimate the biases, which resulted in drifting model behaviour and sub-optimal parameter estimation, but both methods provided better state updating and parameter estimation than using a bias-unaware filter.
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| [66] |
Global precipitation trends in 1900-2005 from a reconstruction and coupled model simulations [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50212 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The trends of global precipitation in 1900-2005 are evaluated using a historical precipitation reconstruction and coupled model simulations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. A significant increasing trend in the global oceanic precipitation is identified in both the reconstruction and models. The trend from the reconstructed ocean precipitation is 0.04 mm dayover 100a (100 years) and is about twice that of the mean of all models. Over land, the spatial patterns of the trends from both the reconstruction and the models are similar to those shown in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Over the ocean, both reconstruction and models show positive trends in the equatorial and subpolar regions and negative trends over the subtropics. However, the trend magnitude and the locations of the trend peaks are different near the equator (10 S to 10 N) between the reconstruction and the models. CMIP5 future simulations for the global mean project a continuing and stronger precipitation trend in the 21st century than the 20th century.
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| [2] |
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| [67] |
The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075390 URL PMID: 12434057 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Changes in the global water cycle can cause major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. As the average global temperature increases, it is generally expected that the air will become drier and that evaporation from terrestrial water bodies will increase. Paradoxically, terrestrial observations over the past 50 years show the reverse. Here, we show that the decrease in evaporation is consistent with what one would expect from the observed large and widespread decreases in sunlight resulting from increasing cloud coverage and aerosol concentration.
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| [68] |
Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002 [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1061 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Contrary to expectations, measurements of pan evaporation show decreases in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years. When combined with rainfall measurements, these data show that much of the Northern Hemisphere's terrestrial surface has become less arid over the last 50 years. However, whether the decrease in pan evaporation is a phenomenon limited to the Northern Hemisphere has until now been unknown because there have been no reports from the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we report a decrease in pan evaporation rate over the last 30 years across Australia of the same magnitude as the Northern Hemisphere trends (approximately -4 mm a-2). The results show that the terrestrial surface in Australia has, on average, become less arid over the recent past, just like much of the Northern Hemisphere.
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| [3] |
人类活动与全球气候变化及其对水资源的影响 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2008.02.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
在认识人类活动对近百年气候变化的重要作用中,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)起了关键性作用。自1990年以来的17年间,IPCC主要通过四次评估报告不断加深对人类活动引起近百年气候变化的认识。这是通过提供三个方面的证据实现的:(1)温室气体自工业化时代以来(1750年以后)的迅速增加,(2)近百年地表和对流层温度以及海洋温度明显增加的观测事实,(3)根据气候模式进行的对过去100年气候变化的模拟。它证明,近百年气候变暖由自然的气候波动和人类活动共同造成,但最近50年大部分气候变化主要由人类活动造成。本文首先阐述人类活动在影响近百年全球气候变化中的重要作用,然后对人类活动影响全球气候变化的若干争议也作了简略介绍和分析。全球气候变化对于全球水资源系统和水资源管理有重大影响,文中从大气温度、降水、海平面上升和蒸散发的变化说明了这个问题。这为采取适应措施提供了科学基础。
Human activity and the global climate change and its impact on water resources [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2008.02.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
在认识人类活动对近百年气候变化的重要作用中,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)起了关键性作用。自1990年以来的17年间,IPCC主要通过四次评估报告不断加深对人类活动引起近百年气候变化的认识。这是通过提供三个方面的证据实现的:(1)温室气体自工业化时代以来(1750年以后)的迅速增加,(2)近百年地表和对流层温度以及海洋温度明显增加的观测事实,(3)根据气候模式进行的对过去100年气候变化的模拟。它证明,近百年气候变暖由自然的气候波动和人类活动共同造成,但最近50年大部分气候变化主要由人类活动造成。本文首先阐述人类活动在影响近百年全球气候变化中的重要作用,然后对人类活动影响全球气候变化的若干争议也作了简略介绍和分析。全球气候变化对于全球水资源系统和水资源管理有重大影响,文中从大气温度、降水、海平面上升和蒸散发的变化说明了这个问题。这为采取适应措施提供了科学基础。
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| [69] |
On the attribution of changing pan evaporation [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031166 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Evaporative demand, measured by pan evaporation, has declined in many regions over the last several decades. It is important to understand why. Here we use a generic physical model based on mass and energy balances to attribute pan evaporation changes to changes in radiation, temperature, humidity and wind speed. We tested the approach at 41 Australian sites for the period 1975-2004. Changes in temperature and humidity regimes were generally too small to impact pan evaporation rates. The observed decreases in pan evaporation were mostly due to decreasing wind speed with some regional contributions from decreasing solar irradiance. Decreasing wind speeds of similar magnitude has been reported in the United States, China, the Tibetan Plateau and elsewhere. The pan evaporation record is invaluable in unraveling the aerodynamic and radiative drivers of the hydrologic cycle, and the attribution approach described here can be used for that purpose.
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| [70] |
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| [71] |
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110 URL PMID: 24344289 [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 00°C above present (approximately 2.7 00°C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 00°C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 00°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
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A revised land surface parameterization (SiB2) for atmospheric GCMs. Part I: Model formulation [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0676:ARLSPF>2.0.CO;2 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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地表过程研究进展与趋势 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.04.0407 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>地表过程复杂多样、涉及广泛。针对当前地表过程研究现状，从地球系统科学和全球变化的视角讨论了与地表过程相关的一些概念及研究内涵。在分析单要素地表过程和多要素地表过程的基础上，从研究内容的综合性、多国合作的国际性、针对区域突出问题的区域性、以过程变化为核心的动态性及研究方法的多样性等方面论述了地表过程研究的特点,总结性地给出了国内外研究的总体趋势。在上述分析基础上，进一步从国际科学发展趋势、国家需要和信息、技术等方面分析了中国地表过程研究所面临的机遇；从多学科交叉、自然与人文过程的定量与有机耦合等方面讨论了地表过程研究所面临的挑战。</p>
Studies of earth surface processes: Progress and prospect [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.04.0407 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>地表过程复杂多样、涉及广泛。针对当前地表过程研究现状，从地球系统科学和全球变化的视角讨论了与地表过程相关的一些概念及研究内涵。在分析单要素地表过程和多要素地表过程的基础上，从研究内容的综合性、多国合作的国际性、针对区域突出问题的区域性、以过程变化为核心的动态性及研究方法的多样性等方面论述了地表过程研究的特点,总结性地给出了国内外研究的总体趋势。在上述分析基础上，进一步从国际科学发展趋势、国家需要和信息、技术等方面分析了中国地表过程研究所面临的机遇；从多学科交叉、自然与人文过程的定量与有机耦合等方面讨论了地表过程研究所面临的挑战。</p>
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Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3790.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding the variability of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle is central to determining the potential for extreme events and susceptibility to future change. In the absence of long-term, large-scale observations of the components of the hydrologic cycle, modeling can provide consistent fields of land surface fluxes and states. This paper describes the creation of a global, 50-yr, 3-hourly, 1.000° dataset of meteorological forcings that can be used to drive models of land surface hydrology. The dataset is constructed by combining a suite of global observation-based datasets with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction09“National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP09“NCAR) reanalysis. Known biases in the reanalysis precipitation and near-surface meteorology have been shown to exert an erroneous effect on modeled land surface water and energy budgets and are thus corrected using observation-based datasets of precipitation, air temperature, and radiation. Corrections are also made to the rain day statistics of the reanalysis precipitation, which have been found to exhibit a spurious wavelike pattern in high-latitude wintertime. Wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation is removed using the results from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Solid Precipitation Measurement Intercomparison. Precipitation is disaggregated in space to 1.000° by statistical downscaling using relationships developed with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) daily product. Disaggregation in time from daily to 3 hourly is accomplished similarly, using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly real-time dataset. Other meteorological variables (downward short- and longwave radiation, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and wind speed) are downscaled in space while accounting for changes in elevation. The dataset is evaluated against the bias-corrected forcing dataset of the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2). The final product provides a long-term, globally consistent dataset of near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to drive models of the terrestrial hydrologic and ecological processes for the study of seasonal and interannual variability and for the evaluation of coupled models and other land surface prediction schemes.
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Evaluation of the runoff and river routing schemes in the Community Land Model of the Yellow River Basin [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001026 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here... [Show full abstract]
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| [5] |
遥感水文应用中的尺度问题 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2001.06.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>遥感技术在水文科学中的广泛应用，极大地拓宽了其研究的领域和范围，增加了其研究的深度。但同时也应该看到，遥感信息的空间分辨率和时间分辨率，以及水文科学自身尺度问题的复杂性，一方面对遥感水文的应用产生困难和问题，限制了水文遥感的应用；另一方面又对水文尺度问题提供了新的技术手段，为遥感水文应用增添了新的亮点。从水文机理与空间尺度、遥感信息的空间分辨率、水文参数的空间延拓，以及遥感技术与水文科学的发展等 4个方面探讨了遥感水文的空间尺度问题；从瞬时遥感信息的时间拓展和遥感信息的时间分辨率 2个方面讨论了遥感水文的时间尺度问题。</p>
Scale issues on the applications of remote sensing to hydrology [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2001.06.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>遥感技术在水文科学中的广泛应用，极大地拓宽了其研究的领域和范围，增加了其研究的深度。但同时也应该看到，遥感信息的空间分辨率和时间分辨率，以及水文科学自身尺度问题的复杂性，一方面对遥感水文的应用产生困难和问题，限制了水文遥感的应用；另一方面又对水文尺度问题提供了新的技术手段，为遥感水文应用增添了新的亮点。从水文机理与空间尺度、遥感信息的空间分辨率、水文参数的空间延拓，以及遥感技术与水文科学的发展等 4个方面探讨了遥感水文的空间尺度问题；从瞬时遥感信息的时间拓展和遥感信息的时间分辨率 2个方面讨论了遥感水文的时间尺度问题。</p>
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Terrestrial Hydrometeorology [M]. |
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The use of entropy in hydrology and water resources [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1085 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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SPAC界面水分通量调控理论及其在农业节水中的应用 [J].
提出了农田五水(降水、土壤水、地表水、地下水与作(植)物水) 的系统概念,讨论了SPAC(土壤-植物-大气)系统中水分运动过程.内容包括SPAC界面水分通量.基于SPAC界面水分耗散与调控研究,提出了农艺节 水模式与应用效果.旨在推进农业节水中应用低成本高效益的农艺节水理论与技术.
SPAC interface water flux control and its application to water-saving in agriculture [J].
提出了农田五水(降水、土壤水、地表水、地下水与作(植)物水) 的系统概念,讨论了SPAC(土壤-植物-大气)系统中水分运动过程.内容包括SPAC界面水分通量.基于SPAC界面水分耗散与调控研究,提出了农艺节 水模式与应用效果.旨在推进农业节水中应用低成本高效益的农艺节水理论与技术.
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| [77] |
Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017896 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract We present a coevolutionary view of hydrologic systems, revolving around feedbacks between environmental and social processes operating across different time scales. This brings to the fore an emphasis on emergent phenomena in changing water systems, such as the levee effect, adaptation to change, system lock-in, and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system. Guidance is provided for the framing and modeling of these phenomena to test alternative hypotheses about how they arose. A plurality of coevolutionary models, from stylized to comprehensive system-of-system models, may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesize the observed dynamics in a wide range of case studies. Future research opportunities lie in exploring emergent phenomena arising from time scale interactions through historical, comparative, and process studies of human-water feedbacks.
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| [78] |
Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Not Available
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Spectrum of storm event hydrologic response in urban watersheds [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20223 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We seek to improve scientific understanding of urban storm event hydrologic response through analyses of rainfall and discharge data for the Baltimore metropolitan region. High-resolution data, 1 kmand 15 min radar rainfall and 1 to 5 min discharge, provide the detail necessary to accurately characterize storm event hydrologic response in small urban basins. We examine flood-producing rainfall properties and storm event hydrologic response for nine small watersheds in the Baltimore region including seven urbanized basins, a forested basin, and an agricultural basin. We find expected contrasts in flood peak distributions and storm event runoff production between the urban and nonurban watersheds, but we also find a spectrum of storm event hydrologic response among the urban watersheds. Moores Run and Dead Run are end-members of this urban spectrum, with Moores Run producing anomalously large flood peak magnitudes and Dead Run producing anomalously large storm event runoff ratios. Analyses show that runoff production and timing of hydrologic response are linked to stormwater management infrastructure and play a central role in the spectrum of storm event response. Detention basins in these watersheds appear to operate as intended by stormwater legislation to lower peak discharges but not runoff volumes. Antecedent moisture does not appear to significantly impact storm event hydrologic response in the urban or nonurban basins. The rainfall climatology of flood-producing storms varies from urban to nonurban watersheds with urban watershed flood frequency displaying a pronounced warm season maximum, highlighting the central role of warm season thunderstorm systems for urban flooding in Baltimore.
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| [80] |
White water: Fifty years of snow research in WRR and the outlook for the future [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017242 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Over the past 50 years, 239 papers related to snow have been published in Water Resources Research (WRR). Seminal papers on virtually every facet of snow physics and snow water resources have appeared in the journal. These include papers on drifting snow, the snow surface energy balance, the effect of grain size on albedo, chemical elution, water movement through snow, and canopy interception. In particular, papers in WRR have explored the distribution of snow across different landscapes, providing data, process knowledge, and the basis for virtually all of the distributed snow models in use today. In this paper, I review these key contributions and provide some personal thoughts on what is likely to be the focus and nature of papers published in the next few decades, a period that is likely to see an increasing ability to map snow cover in detail, which should serve as a basis for the further development and improvement of snow models. It will also be an uncertain future, with profound changes in snow climatology predicted. I expect WRR will continue to play a key role in documenting and understanding these important cryospheric changes.
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| [8] |
人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环的影响 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.10.1091 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>随着人口增长和经济社会快速发展,人类活动已成为陆地水循环变化的重要驱动因子,人类用水活动对陆地水循环的影响越来越受到人们的关注。回顾近年来人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环影响方面的研究进展;阐述灌溉、生活和工业用水、水库调节以及地下水利用等典型人类用水活动影响大尺度陆地水循环的过程与机制,并在此基础上探讨了陆面水文模型中人类用水活动参数化方案及其存在的问题。目前,陆面水文模型对人类用水活动的考虑依然不足,使得应用模型模拟陆地水循环和评估变化环境下水资源安全面临挑战。展望未来,深入认识人类用水活动与水系统的影响与反馈,开发考虑人—水系统协同演化的水系统综合评估模型,预估水安全形势的演变趋势,将成为陆地水循环和水资源研究的长期重要任务。</p>
Impacts of human water use on the large-scale terrestrial water cycle [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.10.1091 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>随着人口增长和经济社会快速发展,人类活动已成为陆地水循环变化的重要驱动因子,人类用水活动对陆地水循环的影响越来越受到人们的关注。回顾近年来人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环影响方面的研究进展;阐述灌溉、生活和工业用水、水库调节以及地下水利用等典型人类用水活动影响大尺度陆地水循环的过程与机制,并在此基础上探讨了陆面水文模型中人类用水活动参数化方案及其存在的问题。目前,陆面水文模型对人类用水活动的考虑依然不足,使得应用模型模拟陆地水循环和评估变化环境下水资源安全面临挑战。展望未来,深入认识人类用水活动与水系统的影响与反馈,开发考虑人—水系统协同演化的水系统综合评估模型,预估水安全形势的演变趋势,将成为陆地水循环和水资源研究的长期重要任务。</p>
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A distributed biosphere hydrological model (DBHM) for large river basin [J].https://doi.org/10.2208/prohe.50.37 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Distributed representation of spatial information and physical description of hydrological processes are necessary in large river basin because of the highly nonlinear hydrological processes and the variability of the spatial heterogeneity. It is important to represent both geomorphologic properties and land cover char acteristics in hydrological simulation in large river basin. The DBHM (distributed biosphere hydrological model) employs a flow intervals discretization scheme in the representation of geomorphologic properties and a simple biosphere model in the representation of land cover characteristics to simulate integrate hydrological processes in a large river basin. The geomorphologic properties are abstracted from digit elevation model. The hydrological part estimates the surface runoff and calculates the interlayer exchanges within the soil profile and interaction between soil water and groundwater. The land cover characteristics are described by satellite data and the flux transfer between atmosphere and vegetated surface is calculated by a realistic land surface model SiB2. The DBHM can represent the role of both topography and land cover characteristics in hydrological cycle. The model was applied to the Yellow River Basin to investigate its applicability to a region with large variations in topography, land cover and climate. The hydrological simulation has implemented by hourly time step with a spatial resolution of 10 km mesh. The simulated hydrographs were compared with observations for evaluation of the model performance. The results shows evaporation in irrigation districts is much larger than the evaporation in the surrounding area in semi-arid area, indicating human water regulation had affected the hydrological cycle in the Yellow River basin.
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生态水文科学研究的现状与展望 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.03.0314 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>生态水文科学研究是区域生态系统研究和区域水文科学研究的交叉领域,其核心内容是揭示不同环境条件下植物与水的相互关系机理,探索各种植被的生态水文作用过程。近年来,生态与水文相互作用过程的数学模拟和专门模型研制日益成为重要的发展领域,同时,生态水文学的研究十分注重尺度效应,把在一定尺度上获得的水文与生态原理或模型向其它不同尺度转换已成为最具挑战性的问题。山地生态系统成为全球变化研究最为重要的研究场所,开展与全球变化相关的生态系统物质与能量循环、生态过程的梯度效应及其与水文过程的耦合关系、生态系统结构与功能及其变化等方面的研究,是生态水文学研究最具活力的方向,其中建立包含区域气候变化因素的多元生态过程动态模拟模型,并使该模型具有不同时空尺度、不同地貌和生态带的广泛适应性是目前广泛关注的热点问题。</p>
Current situation and prospect of the Ecological hydrology [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.03.0314 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>生态水文科学研究是区域生态系统研究和区域水文科学研究的交叉领域,其核心内容是揭示不同环境条件下植物与水的相互关系机理,探索各种植被的生态水文作用过程。近年来,生态与水文相互作用过程的数学模拟和专门模型研制日益成为重要的发展领域,同时,生态水文学的研究十分注重尺度效应,把在一定尺度上获得的水文与生态原理或模型向其它不同尺度转换已成为最具挑战性的问题。山地生态系统成为全球变化研究最为重要的研究场所,开展与全球变化相关的生态系统物质与能量循环、生态过程的梯度效应及其与水文过程的耦合关系、生态系统结构与功能及其变化等方面的研究,是生态水文学研究最具活力的方向,其中建立包含区域气候变化因素的多元生态过程动态模拟模型,并使该模型具有不同时空尺度、不同地貌和生态带的广泛适应性是目前广泛关注的热点问题。</p>
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Hydrological cycles change in the Yellow River Basin during the last half of the twentieth century [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1854.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A distributed biosphere hydrological (DBH) model system was used to explore the internal relations among the climate system, human society, and the hydrological system in the Yellow River basin, and to interpret possible mechanisms for observed changes in Yellow River streamflow from 1960 to 2000. Several scenarios were evaluated to elucidate the hydrological response to climate system, land cover, and irrigation. The results show that climate change is the dominant cause of annual streamflow changes in the upper and middle reaches, but human activities dominate annual streamflow changes in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin. The annual river discharge at the mouth is affected by climate change and by human activities in nearly equal proportion. The linear component of climate change contributes to the observed annual streamflow decrease, but changes in the climate temporal pattern have a larger impact on annual river discharge than does the linear component of climate change. Low flow is more significantly affected by irrigation withdrawals than by climate change. Reservoirs induce more diversions for irrigation, while at the same time the results demonstrate that the reservoirs may help to maintain environmental flows and counter what otherwise would be more serious reductions in low flows.
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Human domination of earth's ecosystems [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5325.494 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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海河流域二元水循环及其伴生过程综合模拟 [J].
<p>在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的影响下, 海河流域水资源短缺、水环境恶化及生态退化等问题日益凸显. 如何合理解决这些问题成为流域水资源管理中面临的紧迫任务. 由于水循环承载着每一滴水的形成和转化, 同时又与水生态、水环境等过程相伴生, 且相互作用, 只有将三者结合起来, 明确了解水循环演变驱动下的水生态、水环境的演变趋势, 才能有助于问题的根本解决. 为全面诊断和解决流域水资源、水生态与水环境的问题, 本研究在全面剖析流域水循环演变“自然-社会”二元特性的基础上, 构建海河流域二元水循环及其伴生过程综合模拟平台, 并以此为工具通过基于气候模式预测结果与水量控制条件的情景设置, 对水资源、水生态和水环境的未来演变情势进行了预估. 结果表明: 结合气候变化, 通过实施耗水控制管理和南水北调工程, 未来水平年(2030年)海河流域在保证国民经济用水增长的同时, 水资源的消耗量、地下水的超采量、入海水量可实现良性发展, 与此相伴生的水环境恶化得到缓解, 自然生态系统和农田生态系统的生产能力将呈增长趋势. 这为开展流域水循环调控和实施最严格的水资源管理制度奠定了基础.</p>
Integrated simulation of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin [J].
<p>在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的影响下, 海河流域水资源短缺、水环境恶化及生态退化等问题日益凸显. 如何合理解决这些问题成为流域水资源管理中面临的紧迫任务. 由于水循环承载着每一滴水的形成和转化, 同时又与水生态、水环境等过程相伴生, 且相互作用, 只有将三者结合起来, 明确了解水循环演变驱动下的水生态、水环境的演变趋势, 才能有助于问题的根本解决. 为全面诊断和解决流域水资源、水生态与水环境的问题, 本研究在全面剖析流域水循环演变“自然-社会”二元特性的基础上, 构建海河流域二元水循环及其伴生过程综合模拟平台, 并以此为工具通过基于气候模式预测结果与水量控制条件的情景设置, 对水资源、水生态和水环境的未来演变情势进行了预估. 结果表明: 结合气候变化, 通过实施耗水控制管理和南水北调工程, 未来水平年(2030年)海河流域在保证国民经济用水增长的同时, 水资源的消耗量、地下水的超采量、入海水量可实现良性发展, 与此相伴生的水环境恶化得到缓解, 自然生态系统和农田生态系统的生产能力将呈增长趋势. 这为开展流域水循环调控和实施最严格的水资源管理制度奠定了基础.</p>
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Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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A shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001642 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
[1] Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become increasingly popular for estimating the posterior probability distribution of parameters in hydrologic models. However, MCMC methods require the a priori definition of a proposal or sampling distribution, which determines the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler and therefore the statistical properties of the Markov Chain and its rate of convergence. In this paper we present an MCMC sampler entitled the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA), which is well suited to infer the posterior distribution of hydrologic model parameters. The SCEM-UA algorithm is a modified version of the original SCE-UA global optimization algorithm developed by Duan et al. [1992]. The SCEM-UA algorithm operates by merging the strengths of the Metropolis algorithm, controlled random search, competitive evolution, and complex shuffling in order to continuously update the proposal distribution and evolve the sampler to the posterior target distribution. Three case studies demonstrate that the adaptive capability of the SCEM-UA algorithm significantly reduces the number of model simulations needed to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters when compared with the traditional Metropolis-Hastings samplers.
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面向“未来地球”计划的陆地表层格局研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.002 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
未来地球计划是目前国际上关于全球环境变化前沿研究的综合科学计划,集国际科学理事会(ICSU)所领导的四大科学计划为一体,旨在将自然科学与社会科学结合在一起,并加强决策支持和研究交流,寻求地球系统可持续途径,全球环境变化研究与人类学、社会学合作构建综合集成平台,推进科学研究为社会经济可持续发展服务。本文剖析陆地表层格局特点,分析陆地表层格局的国内外关注焦点及其研究理念的转变与应用领域的拓展。分析表明:陆地表层是未来地球计划关注的重点之一,陆地表层要素与过程相互作用并在人类活动驱动下形成的格局,可作为未来地球计划进一步研究的区域基础框架。未来,陆地表层格局研究应力求方法论的突破,为自然地理学综合研究的发展提供支撑。
Land surface pattern study under the framework of "Future Earth" [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.002 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
未来地球计划是目前国际上关于全球环境变化前沿研究的综合科学计划,集国际科学理事会(ICSU)所领导的四大科学计划为一体,旨在将自然科学与社会科学结合在一起,并加强决策支持和研究交流,寻求地球系统可持续途径,全球环境变化研究与人类学、社会学合作构建综合集成平台,推进科学研究为社会经济可持续发展服务。本文剖析陆地表层格局特点,分析陆地表层格局的国内外关注焦点及其研究理念的转变与应用领域的拓展。分析表明:陆地表层是未来地球计划关注的重点之一,陆地表层要素与过程相互作用并在人类活动驱动下形成的格局,可作为未来地球计划进一步研究的区域基础框架。未来,陆地表层格局研究应力求方法论的突破,为自然地理学综合研究的发展提供支撑。
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The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008906 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Human activities exert global-scale impacts on our environment with significant implications for freshwater-driven services and hazards for humans and nature. Our approach to the science of hydrology needs to significantly change so that we can understand and predict these implications. Such an adjustment is a necessary prerequisite for the development of sustainable water resource management strategies and to achieve long-term water security for people and the environment. Hydrology requires a paradigm shift in which predictions of system behavior that are beyond the range of previously observed variability or that result from significant alterations of physical (structural) system characteristics become the new norm. To achieve this shift, hydrologists must become both synthesists, observing and analyzing the system as a holistic entity, and analysts, understanding the functioning of individual system components, while operating firmly within a well-designed hypothesis testing framework. Cross-disciplinary integration must become a primary characteristic of hydrologic research, catalyzing new research and nurturing new educational models. The test of our quantitative understanding across atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere will necessarily lie in new approaches to benchmark our ability to predict the regional hydrologic and connected implications of environmental change. To address these challenges and to serve as a catalyst to bring about the necessary changes to hydrologic science, we call for a long-term initiative to address the regional implications of environmental change.
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On periodicity in series of related terms [J].https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1931.0069 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
No Abstract Available.
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水文模型:回顾与展望 [J].
梳理和总结了水文模型发展的历史,对水文模型的主要分类方法与类别进行了系统的归纳和总结.从当前水文科学研究的热点问题出发,总结了水文模型在水文预报、水资源规划与利用、土壤侵蚀、非点源污染模拟等传统水文问题,以及解决水文学当前面临的一些热点问题包括气候变化和人类活动对水循环的影响中具体的研究与应用现状以及主要进展,分析了水文模型今后可能的发展趋势以及所存在的主要难点问题和关键技术.
Hydrological models: Past, present and future [J].
梳理和总结了水文模型发展的历史,对水文模型的主要分类方法与类别进行了系统的归纳和总结.从当前水文科学研究的热点问题出发,总结了水文模型在水文预报、水资源规划与利用、土壤侵蚀、非点源污染模拟等传统水文问题,以及解决水文学当前面临的一些热点问题包括气候变化和人类活动对水循环的影响中具体的研究与应用现状以及主要进展,分析了水文模型今后可能的发展趋势以及所存在的主要难点问题和关键技术.
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The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI-MIP): Project framework [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.
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Creation of the WATCH forcing data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1369.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses modelindependent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.
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水文科学研究进展的回顾与展望 [J].
对水文科学的研究现状、主要进展和发展趋势进行了系统深入的总结和分析,其结果表明,社会需求是水文科学发展的根本动力,技术进步是水文科学发展的源泉。水文科学不仅要研究地表水文过程,还要研究各圈层界面上水分和能量交换过程,不仅要研究水在运动转化过程中的物理过程,还要研究水中各种化学成分的化学过程,特别需要加强水在水文循环和运动中生物过程的研究,从而使水文学向生态水文学的方向迈进。目前,生态水文学、全球气候变化影响是水文学研究的热点领域之一。今后除了进一步继续完善和深化水文科学的理论体系,还要不断丰富水文科学的社会服务功能,为经济建设和社会发展提供科技支撑。
Progress in hydrological sciences: Past, present and future [J].
对水文科学的研究现状、主要进展和发展趋势进行了系统深入的总结和分析,其结果表明,社会需求是水文科学发展的根本动力,技术进步是水文科学发展的源泉。水文科学不仅要研究地表水文过程,还要研究各圈层界面上水分和能量交换过程,不仅要研究水在运动转化过程中的物理过程,还要研究水中各种化学成分的化学过程,特别需要加强水在水文循环和运动中生物过程的研究,从而使水文学向生态水文学的方向迈进。目前,生态水文学、全球气候变化影响是水文学研究的热点领域之一。今后除了进一步继续完善和深化水文科学的理论体系,还要不断丰富水文科学的社会服务功能,为经济建设和社会发展提供科技支撑。
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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and describes our current physical understanding of the association between subdaily extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature. We also examine the nature, quality, and quantity of information needed to allow society to adapt successfully to predicted future changes, and discuss the roles of observational and modeling studies in helping us to better understand the physical processes that can influence subdaily extreme rainfall characteristics. We conclude by describing the types of research required to produce a more thorough understanding of the relationships between local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and subdaily extreme rainfall intensity.
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Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010090 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Monitoring Earth’s terrestrial water conditions is critically important to manyhydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resourcessustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs havemotivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrialhydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions(6510–100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical watercycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally atmuch higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution inthe context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs andbenefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth’s terrestrial water, energy,and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system:improved representation of surface‐subsurface interactions due to fine‐scale topographyand vegetation; improved representation of land‐atmospheric interactions and resultingspatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality aspart of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from watermanagement; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computationaladvances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; anddeveloping the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem thedevelopment of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water,energy, and biogeochemical cycles a “grand challenge” to the community, and we callupon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science supportinfrastructure to endorse the effort.
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流域水文过程与植被相互作用研究现状评述 [J].
从流域水文过程与植被相互作用规律、流域生态水文模型、流域生态水文对气候变化的响应三个方 面,对国内外相关研究现状进行了总结分析。从中发现,当前流域水文学正在从以单一水循环过程为主要研究对象发展成以研究水分、能量与物质耦合循环以及水文 过程与生态过程的相互作用等为主要内容的综合性、交叉性学科。现关于流域水文过程与植被之间的关系研究多集中于单向作用的研究,如水文过程对植被的影响研 究和植被变化对水文过程的影响研究,而对水文过程与植被之间的反馈机制以及对流域内土壤-植被-大气复杂系统的整体研究不足,缺乏对流域水文过程与植被相 互作用机理的全面认识。有研究表明,气候变化已经影响到流域水文过程和植被生长,气候变化下的流域生态水文响应是水文学研究的前沿课题。水文学需要强化对 流域生态水文机理的研究,只有在充分揭示流域生态水文机理的前提下,才能预测未来气候变化下的流域生态水文响应。生态最优性原理能够解释植被对外界环境变 化的响应,从而被应用于描述植被与水文过程的相互作用。基于生态最优性原理的流域生态水文模型已逐渐成为生态水文学的研究热点之一。
Overview of the research status in interaction between hydrological processes and vegetation in catchment [J].
从流域水文过程与植被相互作用规律、流域生态水文模型、流域生态水文对气候变化的响应三个方 面,对国内外相关研究现状进行了总结分析。从中发现,当前流域水文学正在从以单一水循环过程为主要研究对象发展成以研究水分、能量与物质耦合循环以及水文 过程与生态过程的相互作用等为主要内容的综合性、交叉性学科。现关于流域水文过程与植被之间的关系研究多集中于单向作用的研究,如水文过程对植被的影响研 究和植被变化对水文过程的影响研究,而对水文过程与植被之间的反馈机制以及对流域内土壤-植被-大气复杂系统的整体研究不足,缺乏对流域水文过程与植被相 互作用机理的全面认识。有研究表明,气候变化已经影响到流域水文过程和植被生长,气候变化下的流域生态水文响应是水文学研究的前沿课题。水文学需要强化对 流域生态水文机理的研究,只有在充分揭示流域生态水文机理的前提下,才能预测未来气候变化下的流域生态水文响应。生态最优性原理能够解释植被对外界环境变 化的响应,从而被应用于描述植被与水文过程的相互作用。基于生态最优性原理的流域生态水文模型已逐渐成为生态水文学的研究热点之一。
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Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River Basin [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-791-2017 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)028.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 4062% of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–1162% reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.
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Overview of ChinaFLUX and evaluation of its eddy covariance measurement [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.02.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
中国科学院机构知识库(中国科学院机构知识库网格（CAS IR GRID）)以发展机构知识能力和知识管理能力为目标，快速实现对本机构知识资产的收集、长期保存、合理传播利用，积极建设对知识内容进行捕获、转化、传播、利用和审计的能力，逐步建设包括知识内容分析、关系分析和能力审计在内的知识服务能力，开展综合知识管理。
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An ensemble adjustment Kalman Filter for data assimilation [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)1292.0.CO;2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A theory for estimating the probability distribution of the state of a model given a set of observations exists. This nonlinear filtering theory unifies the data assimilation and ensemble generation problem that have been key foci of prediction and predictability research for numerical weather and ocean prediction applications. A new algorithm, referred to as an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, and the more traditional implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter in which perturbed observations are used, are derived as Monte Carlo approximations to the nonlinear filter. Both ensemble Kalman filter methods produce assimilations with small ensemble mean errors while providing reasonable measures of uncertainty in the assimilated variables. The ensemble methods can assimilate observations with a nonlinear relation to model state variables and can also use observations to estimate the value of imprecisely known model parameters. These ensemble filter methods are shown to have significant advantages over four-dimensional variational assimilation in low-order models and scale easily to much larger applications. Heuristic modifications to the filtering algorithms allow them to be applied efficiently to very large models by sequentially processing observations and computing the impact of each observation on each state variable in an independent calculation. The ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is applied to a nondivergent barotropic model on the sphere to demonstrate the capabilities of the filters in models with state spaces that are much larger than the ensemble size. When observations are assimilated in the traditional ensemble Kalman filter, the resulting updated ensemble has a mean that is consistent with the value given by filtering theory, but only the expected value of the covariance of the updated ensemble is consistent with the theory. The ensemble adjustment Kalman filter computes a linear operator that is applied to the prior ensembl...
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On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with special reference to Wolfer's sunspot numbers [J].https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1927.0007 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
ABSTRACT Die Reihe der Zahlen der Sonnenflecke gleicht einer gest02rten harmonischen Schwingung; Amplitude und Phasenl01nge schwanken. Zun01chst wurde versucht, die Periode durch den Ansatz einer linearen Beziehung zwischen drei aufeinanderfolgenden Gliedern mit nur einer multiplikativen Konstanten zu finden; diese wurde mit Hilfe der Methode der kleinsten Quadrate bestimmt. Es ergab sich eine zu kurze Periode von 10,8 Jahren, w01hrend die üblichen Sch01tzungen 11,12 bis 11,21 Jahre annehmen. Vorherige mechanische Ausgleichung durch Zusammenfassung von je drei Gliedern ergab die bessere Zahl von 11,03 Jahren. Auch die Linearit01t der Regression des mittleren Glieds auf die beiden benachbarten ist hier besser ausgedrückt als bei den unausgeglichenen Zahlen. Ein Ansatz mit zwei Konstanten ergab ein unbefriedigendes Resultat, das gegen die Existenz einer sekund01ren Periode spricht. Die Regressionsgleichung eines Gliedes auf die beiden vorangehenden führte auf eine stark ged01mpfte harmonische Funktion, eine ebenfalls unbefriedigende L02sung. Die Arbeit zeigt somit, da08 die Analyse gest02rter Reihen mit gro08en Schwierigkeiten verknüpft ist. (VIII 4.)
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Runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature change in the CMIP5 models [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060382 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract We estimated runoff sensitivities to global mean temperature change using climate experiments archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and compared with the similar CMIP3 results. We also evaluated differences in runoff sensitivity for the Earth System Models (ESMs) and Climate System Models (CSMs), which were separately identified in CMIP5 for the first time. Our results show that runoff sensitivity is relatively independent of emission scenarios in CMIP5, as in CMIP3 results. Global mean runoff would increase about 2.9% per C of global warming in CMIP5, as contrasted with 1.9% in CMIP3. Although global runoff sensitivity patterns for CMIP5 and CMIP3 are roughly similar, CMIP5 suggests significant declines (increases) in runoff sensitivity over 17% (25%) of the global land area relative to CMIP3. Globally, the ESMs and CSMs have about the same model spread in runoff change projections.
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FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2415:FANTTS>2.3.CO;2 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152538 URL PMID: 18239088 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.
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Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.039 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The areas of energy, water and food policy have numerous interwoven concerns ranging from ensuring access to services, to environmental impacts to price volatility. These issues manifest in very different ways in each of the three “spheres”, but often the impacts are closely related. Identifying these interrelationships a priori is of great importance to help target synergies and avoid potential tensions. Systems thinking is required to address such a wide swath of possible topics. This paper briefly describes some of the linkages at a high-level of aggregation – primarily from a developing country perspective – and via case studies, to arrive at some promising directions for addressing the nexus. To that end, we also present the attributes of a modelling framework that specifically addresses the nexus, and can thus serve to inform more effective national policies and regulations. While environmental issues are normally the ‘cohesive principle’ from which the three areas are considered jointly, the enormous inequalities arising from a lack of access suggest that economic and security-related issues may be stronger motivators of change. Finally, consideration of the complex interactions will require new institutional capacity both in industrialised and developing countries.
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The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1085 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017173 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Global hydrology has come a long way since the first introduction of the primitive land surface model of Manabe (1969) and the declaration of the mergence of Global Hydrology by Eagleson (1986). Hydrological submodels of varying complexity are now part of global climate models, of models calculating global terrestrial carbon sequestration, of earth system models, and even of integrated assessment models. This paper reviews the current state of global hydrological modeling, discusses past and recent developments, and extrapolates these to future challenges and directions. First, established domains of global hydrological model applications are discussed, in terms of societal and science questions posed, the type of models developed, and recent advances therein. Next, a genealogy of global hydrological models is given. After reviewing recent efforts to connect model components from different domains, new domains are identified where global hydrology is now starting to become an integral part of the analyses. Finally, inspired by these new domains of application, persistent and emerging challenges are identified as well as the directions global hydrology is likely to take in the coming decade and beyond.
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The AmeriFlux data activity and data system: an evolving collection of data management techniques, tools, products and services [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-165-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the US Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Among the many data archived and available from CDIAC are collections from long-term measurement projects. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. To successfully manage AmeriFlux data and support climate change research, CDIAC has designed flexible data systems using proven technologies and standards blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. The AmeriFlux data system, comprised primarily of a relational database, a PHP-based data interface and a FTP server, offers a broad suite of AmeriFlux data. The data interface allows users to query the AmeriFlux collection in a variety of ways and then subset, visualize and download the data. From the perspective of data stewardship, on the other hand, this system is designed for CDIAC to easily control database content, automate data movement, track data provenance, manage metadata content, and handle frequent additions and corrections. CDIAC and researchers in the flux community developed data submission guidelines to enhance the AmeriFlux data collection, enable automated data processing, and promote standardization across regional networks. Both continuous flux and meteorological data and irregular biological data collected at AmeriFlux sites are carefully scrutinized by CDIAC using established quality-control algorithms before the data are ingested into the AmeriFlux data system. Other tasks at CDIAC include reformatting and standardizing the diverse and heterogeneous datasets received from individual sites into a uniform and consistent network database, generating high-level derived products to meet the current demands from a broad user group, and developing new products in anticipation of future needs. In this paper, we share our approaches to meet the challenges of standardizing, archiving and delivering quality, well-documented AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges of handling diverse climate change data, to further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and to highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.
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A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.12.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.
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GEWEX: The global energy and water cycle experiment [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/91EO00007 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The need for better quantitative understanding of energy fluxes and water exchanges is basic to all climate studies, yet our quantitative knowledge of the global hydrological cycle remains surprisingly poor. Evaporation minus precipitation or, similarly, the net flow of water from land to oceans and the net advection of moisture from the marine atmosphere to the terrestrial atmosphere is known at best to a factor of two to three (J. Schaake, personal communication, 1991). The regional and temporal distribution of the components of the hydrological budget are even more uncertain. Improved understanding of the global hydrological cycle has been limited in part by the absence of reliable global data on such essential quantities as precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric transport; acquisition of these data is a prerequisite for the study of global energetics and hydrology. Space agencies in the United States, Europe, and Japan have announced plans to launch a series of global Earth observing satellites in the late 1990s to monitor these essential atmospheric and surface parameters and to complement existing operational meteorological and hydrological networks.
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Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016869 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.
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Drought under global warming: A review [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Ni01±a-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El-Ni01±o-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Ni01±o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 2009000950 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models' ability to predict tropical SSTs. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 4509000965 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website
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The common land model [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-8-1013 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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The Amazon Basin in transition [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10717 URL PMID: 22258611 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.
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Land-use change and hydrologic processes: A major focus for the future [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5584 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Available from
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The evolution of urban hydrology: Past, present, and future [J].https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2003)129:8(563) URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Water and civilization: Using history to reframe water policy debates and to build a new ecological realism [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(99)00019-7 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article invites policy makers to reframe some familiar policy debates on water through using history. While violence has and will continue around water, water is far more humanity learning ground for building community than it is a cause of war. Increased interdependence through water sharing plans and infrastructure networks can be seen as increases of our flexibility and capacity to respond to exigencies of nature and reduce our vulnerability to events such as droughts and floods and thereby increase security. The history of social organization around river basins and watersheds is humanity richest records of our dialogue with nature. It is among the most fertile areas for learning about how the political and technical interact. The spatial and functional characteristics of the river basins influenced human settlement and interaction long before the idea of the river basin started to be formalized into legal and administrative terms. The direction of flow of rivers influenced the movement of civilization. Rivers have been crucial to means of communication leading to the formation of political units. The article concludes with calling for new ethics in water management. It calls for an ethic built on: a sense of purpose and on an active co-designing with nature and not solely on preservation; a balance between humans and technology and among structural and on-structural approaches; and a new balance of the sacred and utilitarian in water.
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Land-atmosphere interaction [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/95RG00284 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Modelling freshwater resources at the global scale: Challenges and Prospects [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9343-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, an
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A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: Model tuning and validation [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00283-4 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quantification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5 . WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, and simulates the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption. In order to obtain a reliable estimate of water availability, it is tuned against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations, which represent 50% of the global land area and 70% of the actively discharging area. For 50% of these stations, the tuning of one model parameter was sufficient to achieve that simulated and observed long-term average discharges agree within 1%. For the rest, however, additional corrections had to be applied to the simulated runoff and discharge values. WGHM not only computes the long-term average water resources of a country or a drainage basin but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the modeling results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the tuning stations and at selected other stations. The comparison shows that WGHM is able to calculate reliable and meaningful indicators of water availability at a high spatial resolution. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simulated well. Therefore, WGHM is suited for application in global assessments related to water security, food security and freshwater ecosystems.
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Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models [J].https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR02985 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The successful application of a conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) model depends on how well it is calibrated. Despite the popularity of CRR models, reports in the literature indicate that it is typically difficult, if not impossible, to obtain unique optimal values for their parameters using automatic calibration methods. Unless the best set of parameters associated with a given calibration data set can be found, it is difficult to determine how sensitive the parameter estimates (and hence the model forecasts) are to factors such as input and output data error, model error, quantity and quality of data, objective function used, and so on. Results are presented that establish clearly the nature of the multiple optima problem for the research CRR model SIXPAR. These results suggest that the CRR model optimization problem is more difficult than had been previously thought and that currently used local search procedures have a very low probability of successfully finding the optimal parameter sets. Next, the performance of three existing global search procedures are evaluated on the model SIXPAR. Finally, a powerful new global optimization procedure is presented, entitled the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method, which was able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SIXPAR model, and appears to be capable of efficiently and effectively solving the CRR model optimization problem.
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Blueprint for a physically based, digitally simulated hydrologic response model [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(69)90020-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In recent years hydrologists have subjected the various subsystems of the hydrologic cycle to intensive study, designed to discover the mechanisms of flow and to arrive at physical and mathematical descriptions of the flow processes. As a consequence, meaningful results are now available in the form of numerical solutions to mathematical boundary value problems for groundwater flow, unsaturated porous media flow, overland flow, and channel flow. These developments in physical hydrology, together with the tremendous advance in digital computer technology, should provide the impetus for a necessary redirection of research in hydrologic simulation. In this paper, a blueprint for the development of physically-based hydrologic response models is presented; the level of sophistication that can be achieved with presently available methodology is discussed; and areas for necessary future research are pinpointed.
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Tropical rainfall variability on interannual-to-interdecadal and longer time scales derived from the GPCP monthly product [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4227.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27-yr (197909“2005) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly dataset. Emphasis is placed on discriminating among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the Tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the dataset is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted in the dataset, with a weaker decrease over Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the Tropics (2500°S09“2500°N), the dataset indicates an upward linear change (0.06 mm day-1 decade-1) and a downward linear change (-0.01 mm day-1 decade-1) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 5.5% increase (ocean) and 1% decrease (land) during the entire 27-yr time period. The year 2005 has the largest annual tropical total precipitation (land plus ocean) for the GPCP record. The five highest years are (in descending order) 2005, 2004, 1998, 2003, and 2002. For tropical ocean the five highest years are 1998, 2004, 2005, 2002, and 2003. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions during the time period (El Chich0106n, March 1982; Mount Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer-time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but rather induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified dataset (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variances, thereby increasing the statistical significance levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the Tropics. However, although care has been taken to ensure that this dataset is as homogeneous as possible, firm establishment of the existence of the discussed changes as long-term trends may require continued analysis of the input datasets and a lengthening of the observation period.
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| [42] |
Large-sample hydrology: A need to balance depth with breadth [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-9147-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A holy grail of hydrology is to understand catchment processes well enough that models can provide detailed simulations across a variety of hydrologic settings at multiple spatiotemporal scales, and under changing environmental conditions. Clearly, this cannot be achieved only through intensive place-based investigation at a small number of heavily instrumented catchments, or by empirical methods that do not fully exploit our understanding of hydrology. In this opinion paper, we discuss the need to actively promote and pursue the use of a large catchment sample approach to modeling the rainfall unoff process, thereby balancing depth with breadth. We examine the history of such investigations, discuss the benefits (improved process understanding resulting in robustness of prediction at ungauged locations and under change), examine some practical challenges to implementation and, finally, provide perspectives on issues that need to be taken into account as we move forward. Ultimately, our objective is to provoke further discussion and participation, and to promote a potentially important theme for the upcoming Scientific Decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences entitled Panta Rhei.
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| [43] |
Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222475110 URL PMID: 24344275 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.
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| [44] |
An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources -part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1 1 (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 kmeach of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than 20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than 卤50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than 卤1 mo in 19 of the 27 basins and less than 2 mo in 25 basins. The performance was similar to the best available precedent studies with closure of energy and water. The input meteorological forcing component and the integrated model provide a framework with which to assess global water resources, with the potential application to investigate the subannual variability in water resources.
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| [45] |
On the possible existence of a strange attractor for the Southern Oscillatio [J].
react-text: 451 Using a multivariate statistical testing procedure, the anomalies of the monthly mean northern hemisphere stream function in 1000, 850, 500 and 200 hPa of the period January 1982 to September 1983 are compared to the respective monthly values of the period January 1967 to December 1981, to find out whether or not the El Ni帽o 1982/83 had a statistically significant influence on the northern... /react-text react-text: 452 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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| [99] |
Evaluating the non-stationary relationship between precipitation and streamflow in nine major basins of China during the past 50 years [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.041 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In this paper, the trends of the annual streamflow and precipitation and cross correlations between them were analyzed in nine large river basins of China during 1956 2005. The results indicate that: (1) the annual mean streamflow decreases in arid and semi-arid regions of north China; however, increasing trends occur in south and Southwest China; (2) the annual streamflow and precipitation exhibit reasonable correlation in nine large river basins except those located in inland areas. The annual streamflow over most areas of China is fed by precipitation; however, the decline in streamflow is faster than the decreases of precipitation since 1970s in the arid and semi-arid regions of north China. The relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow presents a non-stationary state in north China. This non-stationary relationship is strongly influenced by both human activities and precipitation changes; (3) a significant increase of water use might be the major factor responsible for the steeper decline in streamflow than in precipitation in Haihe River, Yellow River and Songliao River basins in north China. In inland river areas, increase of water use and actual evapotranspiration might result in decline in streamflow although precipitation has an increase tendency. This paper sheds light on the non-stationary relationship between annual precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be helpful for a better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in China at large scale and in other regions of the world.
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