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  • Invited Paper
    Geographies in 2050
    BRUNN Stanley D.
    2013, 32(7): 1006-1017. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.002
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    The "time" focus of most human and environmental geography research is on the present and past with little interest or inclination, unfortunately, in examining place, landscape and regional futures, even though space, place, region and environment are "geographical constants". This reluctance may be attributed to being unfamiliar with previous research conducted by social, cultural, political and economic geographers or an appreciation what such studies have to offer. This article seeks to fill this "gap" by informing the geography communities what geographers have done vis-à-vis the future and what they might contribute. Geographers in the early 1970s began to look at the distinguishing features of emerging postindustrial economies and societies, the advances in information and communication technologies, urban futures, a changing social order, issues of resource scarcity and environmental modification at regional and global scales. Some of these pioneering geographical futurists borrowed ideas and concepts from "geographical" science fiction writers last and this century and also from scholars in a variety of disciplines. Specific examples of these writers and scholars are discussed and listed in the bibliography as well as two major interdisciplinary journals, The Futurist(published by the World Future Society) and Future Studies. A number of forecasting methods and models have been used by futurists; these include trend extrapolation, cross-impact analysis, simulation, scenario writing and the Delphi consensus method. Each has specific advantages and disadvantages when it comes to predicting and projecting likely and alternative futures. Today future studies are gaining respect by those in the corporate, education and policy communities. Evidence is the growing interest in future studies is found in academic journals, awards and planning for worlds at 2050 and beyond. Future studies focusing on the Global South or Global North or regional economic and demographic futures or global environmental futures need to consider not only "certainties" (expected worlds), but also the worlds of "uncertainty" and the worlds of "unintended consequences". I suggest 29 specific research foci about economic, cultural, social, political and environmental topics that geographers might consider between now and 2050. Also I discuss a half-dozen topics specifically about China's economic, cultural, political and environmental futures that would appeal to members of various geographical communities; these include the greening of China, China as an emerging world power, Chinese consumer worlds and ethics, China as a global leader in innovation, demographic issues and digital divides, and emerging religious/spiritual faces and landscapes in China. I also prepared seven innovative maps for discussion and analysis: the Asianization of European worlds, future urban systems, major transcontinental transportation projects, time culture and regions, autonomous regions and new states and shifting environmental zones. I conclude by suggesting the Chinese geography community use the Delphi approach to investigate the country's economic, social and environmental futures. The findings would be invaluable in regional and national planning and provide geographers a strong role in developing and implementing humane social and environmental futures. Geographers are also advised to work with scholars in other disciplines on timely topics about national, regional and global futures.
    • Commemorating the 100th Birthday of Academician Huang Bingwei
  • Commemorating the 100th Birthday of Academician Huang Bingwei
    Experts' talk at the Centennial Seminar of Huang Bingwei’s Academic Thoughts
    ZENG Qingcun, SUN Honglie, LIU Changming, SHI Yulin, TONG Qingxi, LU Dadao, LI Wenyan, WANG Enyong, SUN Huinan, DENG Xianrui, NI Shaoxiang, SUN Guangyou, YANG Guishan, LIU Lin, LI Shuangcheng
    2013, 32(7): 1018-1023. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.003
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    On March 29 2013, "The Centennial Seminar of Huang Bingwei's Academic Thoughts" was held by the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research and Geographical Society of China to commemorate the 100th birthday of Academician Huang Bingwei. At the meeting, a number of experts, including Academicians of CAS and CAE, and Huang's colleagues and students, looked back at his contribution to the development of geography in China in the latter half of the 20th century. Huang's academic contributions included but not limited to promoting the division and formation of physio-geographical sub-disciplines, directing the development of integrated physical geography, strengthening and widening the applicable fields of physical geography, guiding the way for geography to participate in the construction of earth system science. In future, promoting his study style and academic thoughts will be helpful for the development and innovation of geography.
  • Commemorating the 100th Birthday of Academician Huang Bingwei
    The new ways in physical geography proposed by Academician Huang Bingwei
    TANG Dengyin
    2013, 32(7): 1024-1026. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.004
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    Academician Huang Bingwei, as an outstanding geographer, devoted his whole life to the research on integrated physical geography. He had made major progress in the fields of physio-geographical regionalization in China, natural potentiality in agricultural production, global environmental change, earth system science and regional sustainable development. Meanwhile, he realized that there were several weaknesses and shortcomings in geographical studies and promoted the reformation of geography. The new ways proposed by Academician Huang in the physical geography profoundly influenced the development of geography in China.
  • Commemorating the 100th Birthday of Academician Huang Bingwei
    Learning and understanding Academician Huang Bingwei’s academic thoughts
    NI Shaoxiang
    2013, 32(7): 1027-1029. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.005
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    Academician Huang Bingwei is worthy of the title of the master in geography. As a widely respected scholar, he has a wide range of knowledge, agile thinking, broad and unique perspective, and thus made great contribution to the development of geography in China, especially for the physical geography. This paper discusses the academic thoughts of Academician Huang from four aspects: (1) promoting the development of integrated physical geography; (2) innovating to the physio-geographical regionalization in China; (3) advocating the research on physio-geographical processes and the related mechanisms; (4) seeking truth from facts and rigorous scholarship research.
    • Urban Geography
  • Urban Geography
    Progress on studies of urban spatial structure in China
    ZHOU Chunshan, YE Changdong
    2013, 32(7): 1030-1038. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.006
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    Cities in China have undergone unprecedented growth and transformation in the recent years. The research field on urban spatial structure in China expanded rapidly at the same time. To move the research forward during this period of exceptional growth, one of the important tasks is to provide a review or retrospect of the research progress in the past. A statistical analysis of the relevant studies since 1980s indicates the research progress has gone through three time periods: In the first period, from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, the research focused on the introduction of western theories and initial case studies of the cities in China; the second period is from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, in which the research emphasized empirical studies of the cities; in the third period, since the early 2000s, studies have been focusing on general urban spatial structure pattern and new urban spatial phenomena. Compared to the relevant research elsewhere in the world, six fields need to be highlighted in the future research: general urban spatial structure pattern of the cities in China, new urban spatial phenomena, resource efficient urban spatial expansion, thorough studies on urban spatial structure mechanism, micro scale space, and applications of new research methods.
  • Urban Geography
    Review on the research of urban spatial expansion
    YAN Mei, HUANG Jinchuan
    2013, 32(7): 1039-1050. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.007
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    Urban spatial expansion is the most important manifestation of urbanization process, and urban land– use change is the most direct indicator of urban spatial extension, namely, "spatial urbanization". Along with global urbanization, urban spatial expansion has become a hot field in the research of urban development. Foreign research on urban spatial expansion started to unfold when Quantitative Geography Revolution took place in the 1960s, whereas in China it had a relatively late start in the 1980s. Now China is undergoing rapid urbanization, problems and conflicts in urban space expansion are becoming increasingly prominent. Since 2000, a large number of achievements have been made in this field, and need to be sorted out. Based on the progress of theoretical studies and the change of the content of urban spatial expansion research, this article uses the methods of literature search and comparative analysis to review the research progress. The urban spatial expansion researches are reviewed from five aspects, including expansion types, expansion patterns, dynamic mechanism, simulation and prediction, effects and regulations. Through discussing the different research contents, research methods and research conclusions, and combining classification and comprehensive review of foreign and domestic researches, this review discusses the characteristics and inadequacy of the current research, and suggests future research directions. The trend of urban spatial expansion research in China are summarized in four aspects as follows: (1) future research will become more and more focused on urban spatial simulation and prediction; (2) the research on spatial expansion pattern at the regional scale and in the less developed central and west areas will be strengthened; (3) by taking research experience and methods from other disciplines for reference, we should strengthen the fusion of multidisciplinary methods to be better able to solve the problem of urban spatial expansion; (4) based on the status and environment of urban development research in China, the theory and method of the research need to be innovated, in order to narrow the gap between domestic and international research levels. This review provides a reference for further studies of urban spatial expansion as well as the guidance for a healthy, sound and coordinated development of urban space.
  • Urban Geography
    Research progress in urban network construction from the perspective of producer services industry
    WANG Cong, CAO Youhui, SONG Weixuan, LIU Kewen
    2013, 32(7): 1051-1059. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.008
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    With the accelerated development of globalization and the revolutionary advances of information technology, advanced producer services (APS) have become the main driving force of the region's economic growth and an important source of product innovation, and its positive role in the construction of urban network has gained extensive attention from scholars at home and abroad. By systemically analyzing the changes of the urban network research carrier, it can be found that the layout behavior of the producer services enterprises provides an important breakthrough point for the world's city network research. Meanwhile, due to the advantages of the relational data access, urban network construction from the perspective of producer services industry has become an important frontier of city research in the western countries. On the whole, the close correlation between the producer services aggregation and city level is an important foundation of network construction based on producer services, the acting forces of network construction includes the industry attributes of producer services, location selection of the producer services enterprise, and urban development conditions, such as innovative elements, technical facilities, etc. Through the detailed studies of network construction models, the network features, and the dynamic evolution, it can be found that the layout of producer services industry can be applied to the interpretation of urban network in China under the impact of globalization and informatization. Domestic scholars have recognized its importance, and current researches are focused on introducing the method, rather than being concerned with intrinsic mechanisms and evolution characteristics. As the division of labor in global industries deepens, China no longer just plays a role in manufacturing; the country's producer services will start to cluster in large scales. Domestic research on urban network based on producer services just started, and should be strengthened. Based on practical needs, this paper further proposes directions for future research. With China's more active participation in globalization, the theoretical framework of urban network based on producer services need to be established, the systematic studies of urban network based on producer services at regional level is certainly insufficient, and the driving mechanisms and future trends of the urban network require in-depth investigations.
  • Urban Geography
    Coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level in the Yangtze River Delta
    SUN Dongqi, ZHANG Jingxiang, ZHANG Mingdou, YU Zhengsong, HU Yi, ZHOU Liang
    2013, 32(7): 1060-1071. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.009
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    This paper used the DEA model, analytic hierarchy process and a model for coupling degree to analyze urbanization efficiency, economic development level, and the coupling relationship between the two for the 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 1980 to 2010. As a result, theoretical exploration was conducted and a conceptual model was proposed. The results showed that: (1) During the 30 years of evolution, the economic development level in the Yangtze River Delta has been in a upward trend; regional development reached a balanced stage, and the coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level exhibited an overall inverted "U": shaped pattern of "slow rise-sharp rise-slow decline-sharp decline". (2) In different developmental stages, economic development level had different relationship with urbanization efficiency. In a certain period of time, improvement of urbanization efficiency enhanced the regional economic development level, and vice versa. Once both reached a certain level, increase of urbanization efficiency is no longer an important factor to enhancement of the regional economic development level, and, again, vice versa. (3) There is a dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level. Those cities with higher economic development level are the first to be independent of the effect of urbanization efficiency.
  • Urban Geography
    Lifestyle's impact on carbon emissions from urban housholds' space heating: A case study of Kaifeng City
    ZHANG Yan
    2013, 32(7): 1072-1081. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.010
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    With the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of households' energy consumption for heating in winter, the impact of carbon emissions from households' space heating on the environment has become prominent. Although the issue of carbon emissions has received attention from many scholars, microscopic study on the mechanism of carbon emissions is still lacking. The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between lifestyle and carbon emissions from households' space heating. Based on the lifestyle theory and related review articles, the indices of lifestyle factors related to households' space heating are selected, including living space, heating method, length of heating, family size, income, and so on. Through the analysis of the impact of lifestyle factors on carbon emissions, a conceptual model of carbon emissions from urban households' space heating is established, and it shows that heating method, length of heating, living space have direct effects, while family size, income, attitude towards space heating have indirect effects. Based on valid questionnaires from 792 households in a survey in Kaifeng City from December 25, 2011 to January 6, 2012, the features of per capita CO2 emissions from the 792 households' space heating are analyzed, and the influencing factors are analyzed using multiple regression method. The results are as follows: (1) there is a close relationship between the lifestyle and carbon emissions from households' space heating. The quantity of per capita CO2 emissions from housholds' space heating varies with family characteristics, heating methods, attitudes towards space heating; (2) for each family lifestyle index has significant effects on per capita CO2 emissions, among which living space, heating method, length of heating, and family size are the major ones; (3) per capita CO2 emissions from households' space heating can be regulated by changing to high-efficiency carbon heating methods, controlling the increase of living space, and so on.
    • Regional Development
  • Regional Development
    Implication of regionalism and regional integration under the global shift
    WANG Jue, CHEN Wen
    2013, 32(7): 1082-1091. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.011
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    As one of the important paradigms for regional cooperation, regional integration has been receiving extensive attention from scholars, especially in the field of geography. In today’s globalizing world, regional integration is one of the driving forces that reshape the world’s politics and economies. Especially, a considerable amount of research interest has been focused on how the emergence of regional integration after the World War Ⅱ has affected, and will continue to affect, the global economy. However, it is widely accepted that regionalism is not just a recent phenomenon. There have arisen at least four waves of regionalism since the 19th century, along with the trend of globalization. The first wave occurred during the second half of the 19th century and was characterized by colonization. After World War Ⅱ, regionalism demonstrated some new traits and began to pave a peaceful path. Soon after that, a plethora of regional trade blocs formed against the backdrop of the Cold War. With the advent of the 21th century, the most recent wave of regionalism has arisen in a more globalized context than the earlier ones. Because the current regionalism creates the new forms of regional organization, co-existing with traditional forms of state-led governance at the national level, not only the forces driving the current regionalism but also the context and features of the new regional integration are radically different. Consequently, with the“new regionalism”wave, regional integration has become a multidimensional process with implications for bilateral/multilateral trade liberalization as well as the dimensions of politics, security, culture and institutions. In the meantime, theoretical framework used to analyze the political and economic impact of the implementation of regional integration have been systematically improved; new regionalism, new economic geographies and new institutional economics have been introduced to the analysis of regional governance, spatial equilibrium and institutional construction of regional cooperation. This transformation greatly contributes to diversification of the implications of regional integration, including its agents, content of cooperation and organizational mechanism. Nevertheless, there are some issues to be further studied in future. Based on the development process of regional integration, this paper first differentiates regional integration from other related concepts, and then reviews the developmental path of regionalism in the context of globalization in which regionalism has gone through four stages. At last, by summarizing important economic and political theories about regional integration in the literature, which provide reference and inspiration for the regional study, this paper makes a brief comment on the strengths or weaknesses of those established theories, and raises several questions for the current research on regional integration.
  • Regional Development
    Geographical research on isolated mining and industrial areas
    LI Qian, ZHANG Wenzhong, WANG Dai
    2013, 32(7): 1092-1101. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.012
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    With the social and economic development since the founding of PRC, numerous projects were initiated by the government at all levels to meet the increasing demand for energy and minimal resource, leading to the formation of resource exploitation and processing industry. Isolated mining and industrial area (IMIA), which evolved from long term exploitation of mineral resources in resource-rich regions, has made huge contributions to the social and economic development of China as a base of resource supply. After a great deal of achievements, however, the development of IMIA gradually slowed down in terms of diversified industrial development, equalization of public services, and integration of regional development, due to various historical restrictions. In addition to the IMIA related problems such as resource depletion, social, economic and ecological issues, the sustainable development of IMIA itself has become a critical management issue for the government at all levels. To date, few studies have comprehensively investigated the issues associated with IMIA formation and development. Limited studies, however, have focused on the reasons behind the problems caused by IMIA development, without investigating the basic theories of IMIA, which leads to various issues during the process of implementing IMIA. Thus, this paper aims to fill in the gaps between practice and theory of IMIA and put forward some basic theories concerning IMIA formation and development. In this paper, based on previous studies, the concept of IMIA was first reviewed, evaluated and defined. IMIA is an area that evolved from long term exploitation of mineral resources in a resource-rich region and is characterized by resource exploitation and processing as a leading industry, workers and their families being as main residents, and being far away from a city. Then, characteristics and changing patterns of formation and development of IMIA were investigated based on observation dataset, theories of economy development cycles, territorial production complex and evolutionary economic geography. It was found that formation and development of IMIA, in essence, resulted from the interactions between internal and external forces in a resource-rich region. Finally, the development path and mode for IMIA was analyzed and discussed. We emphasize the need to better deal with social, economic and ecological development in an integrative manner. Quantification of IMIA definition standard, evaluation of bearing capacity of resource and environment, mechanisms of regional function evolution and mode of sustainable development, will be further examined in our future study.
  • Regional Development
    A Review on divergence of regional economic growth in China
    LI Guangdong, FANG Chuanglin
    2013, 32(7): 1102-1112. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.013
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    Balancing regional growth is one of the top priorities for economic development in China. Theoretical studies are urgently needed to systematically analyze the degree, pattern, characteristics and mechanisms of regional divergence. Based on literature study and comparative analysis, this paper discusses the progress, remaining issues and future directions of the research on regional economic divergence. The results show that most of foreign researches take multi-disciplinary approaches and focus on the geographical effects, which makes geographic information system (GIS), spatial econometric analysis and space statistical analysis the most commonly used methods. In addition, downscaling and practical application become a common trend. Most of domestic studies, on the other hand, are to confirm the knowledge and theories from foreign studies in China, without our own innovations. Previous studies pay more attention to regional and provincial scales, less on city and county scales. Currently, controversies still exist among the domestic researchers on the degree of divergence of regional growth, whether convergence has occurred and how quickly it changes, etc. Future research should focus on collecting more detailed and comprehensive datasets, monitoring the dynamic changes of regional economic growth, and establishing a quantitative measure system and technology platform. Inter-regional interactions, economic spillovers, mechanisms of imbalance, and practical applications will continue to be the focus of future research.
  • Regional Development
    Research progress on the mechanism of formation and evolution of unique industries at county level
    WANG Dai, LIN Xueqin, SI Yuefang, YU Jianhui
    2013, 32(7): 1113-1122. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.014
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    Among the strategic priorities of urban and rural development in China, fostering unique industries at county level has become a hot topic in the research of regional sustainable development. In this article, we critically summarize and evaluate the key studies on unique industries at county level at home and abroad in this century from three perspectives: theoretical development, main issues and research methodologies. Theoretically, the related researches are under the umbrella of human-environmental relationship discussion, since local unique industries are deeply influenced by the regional advantage and industrial characteristics. Moreover, the theoretical framework and studies in the fields of biology and systematology provide additional enlightening perspectives to the analysis of the interaction between, and co-evolvement of, the unique industries and the influencing factors. Among them, the scholars from actor-network-theory, political ecology, industrial ecology and regional ecology provide resourceful evidence and sound arguments. The main issues in unique industries discussion expand from the local economic development to global production network, from traditional factors to new factors. However, the mismatch and disconnection between the macro-level and micro-level research have limited further development and practices of these studies to some extent. The methods applied in the unique industry research have changed from qualitative description only to the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Nevertheless, due to the limitation of data collection, the research methods need to be further developed to better analyze the motivations and dynamics of unique industry development. We also find out the differences between the domestic and foreign researches. In western countries, the researches highlight the co-evolution between unique industries and regional functions from the perspectives of systematology and ecology, and focus on integration and dynamic system analysis; while in China, the researches are increasingly divided into two schools: industrial distribution at macro level and discussions on mechanisms at micro level.
    • Socio-Cultural Geography
  • Socio-Cultural Geography
    Evolution of temporal and spatial pattern and driving mechanisms of agglomerative growth of senior science talents:A case study of academicians of CAS
    LI Rui, WU Dianting, BAO Jie, QIU Yan, WANG Wei
    2013, 32(7): 1123-1138. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.015
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    Taking 1192 academicians of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) as a case study, temporal and spatial pattern and evolution mechanism of the development of senior science talents are identified and analyzed by using regional Gini coefficient, centralization index and ESDA method. The results show that: (1) At the provincial level, the locations where the academicians of CAS were native or born, acquired his or her highest education (degree), and had long-term work experiences, showed a strong imbalance among the eastern, central and western China. (2) Most of the locations of the three categories have shown significant and positive geospatial autocorrelation since the 1950s. In terms of agglomerative growth, during the four time periods from 1950 to 2010, including 1950s, 1980s, 1990s and the first beginning of the 21st century, the locations of native and birth places presented a spatial trend of gradual increase followed by gradual decrease, while the locations of both highest education (degree) and long-term work experience presented a spatial trend of gradual decrease. (3) HH concentrated locations of the three categories are mainly distributed in the eastern and coastal regions and their neighboring provinces, and the number of three types of locations presented the trends of increase followed by decrease, little change, and gradual increase, respectively. (4) Most provinces among the type IV locations of the three categories with transitions in the evolution of temporal and spatial patterns are the ones that maintain the same level within themselves and with the neighboring provinces during the four periods from 1950 to 2010, and nearly half of provinces presented continuous stability. Type I, II and Ⅲ provinces varied in numbers and some of the provinces had significant transitional phenomenon. (5) Differences and changes of natural resources, economic conditions, political and cultural environment, and educational atmosphere all more or less have influences on the overall spatial distribution and the evolution of temporal and spatial pattern of academicians of CAS.
  • Socio-Cultural Geography
    A review on the application of actor network theory to human geography
    LIU Xuan, WANG Xiaoyi
    2013, 32(7): 1139-1147. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.016
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    Recently, the actor-network theory (ANT) was widely applied to the field of human geography. ANT approach provides a new perspective by allowing researchers to take into consideration the flow of factors and network interaction. After a brief introduction of ANT, this paper summarizes the progress of ANT applications to human geography by summing up the application topics and methods in different branches, and compares the gap between international and domestic researches. This paper reveals that ANT promotes the progress of human geography in both theory and application. Most theoretic explorations happened in the field of economic geography: the relational economic geography based on ANT provides new angle for the reconstruction of "postmodernism" economic geography theory system. In application, analytical framework of ANT applied to the field of human geography emphasizes actors, translation process, and the result, with special attention to the spatial changes as verification of the effect of actor network. ANT uses a structural way to construct the main actor behaviors, resulting in an effective analysis framework for local development and policy implementation research in every branch of human geography. High citation rates of ANT applied research papers indicate ANT approach is now attracting more and more attention in the field of human geography. However, compared to international researches, domestic researches are relatively lagged and limited. Currently, domestic researches still remain in the stage of applying ANT analysis framework directly with little thinking about theory improvement, while international research is starting to rethink the limitations of ANT approach. Based on recent rethinking of ANT use, this study emphasizes that analytical framework of ANT should be highlighted and the use of ANT should carefully control the size of the network and the list of actors, due to the uncertain research paradigm.
  • Socio-Cultural Geography
    Research on international sojourn: A review from geographical perspective
    WEN Jin, BAI Kai, SUN Xing
    2013, 32(7): 1148-1158. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.017
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    In recent years, along with the rapid development of globalization, international sojourn has become a universal phenomenon. Based on literature study, we found the main topics in the research on international sojourn as follows: sojourn experiences of international students, transformative power of international sojourn, reentry experience, pre-departure experience. The literature showed that most of research works were published by sociologists without geographical background, yet following geographical research themes explicitly and implicitly, namely, human-environment-time and space. International sojourners would experience culture shock when they move to a new place with different culture. Gradually, sojourners adapt to and even identify with the culture of the new place. From the view of cultural geography, Sojourners' sense of new place takes shape in the process of adaptation. In this paper, we suggested international sojourn should be brought into the research field of cultural geography and pointed out ideas and topics of the research on international sojourn from geographical perspective. Future studies should focus on sojourners' influences on the sojourn places and their hometowns, especially on the identities of different places. The study of international sojourn can not only provide theoretical foundation and guidance to multicultural development, recruitment of employees for multinational corporations, cross-cultural education and cross-cultural communication, but also benefit the research of cultural geography.
  • Socio-Cultural Geography
    Spatial non-stationarity of the factors affecting crime rate at province scale in China
    YAN Xiaobing
    2013, 32(7): 1159-1166. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.018
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    Income inequality and floating population are two important factors affecting crime rate. One major problem of the previous studies is that they were all based on ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation with constant coefficients. OLS estimation presumes that the individuals are homogeneous and the relationship between the crime rate and the two affecting factors do not change over spatial units, which contradicts the fact that significant differences exist among the 31 provinces of China. In other words, the relationship between crime and income inequality and floating population is too complicated to be explained by ordinary least squares estimation with constant coefficients. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a powerful tool for exploring spatial heterogeneity. GWR recognizes that relationships between variables are likely to vary across space. Instead of estimating one parameter for each independent variable, GWR estimates local parameters. A parameter is estimated for each data location in the study area. In a GWR model, parameters are estimated using a weighting function based on distance so that locations closest to the estimation point have more influence on the estimate. Using geographically weighted regression model, this paper analyzes the local relationship between crime rate and income inequality and floating population in 31 provinces of China. The results show that: (1) The effects on crime rate are spatially non-stationary. The correlation between crime rate and income inequality is significant in some provinces, but not significant in some other provinces. The correlation between crime rate and floating population is significant in all provinces, but not with the same degree. (2) GWR model is more suited than OLS model, the AIC and R square are both improved in GWR model. This study demonstrates the usefulness of GWR for exploring local processes that drive crime rates and for examining the misspecifications of a global model of crime rate. The practical implication of GWR analysis is that different crime prevention policies should be implemented in different regions of China. Because of such a heterogeneity, criminal policy needs to suit the local situations.
  • Socio-Cultural Geography
    Spatial pattern of population and its evolution in South Africa during 1996-2011
    GAO Chao, JIN Fengjun, FU Juan, LIU He
    2013, 32(7): 1167-1176. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.019
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    South Africa is China's largest trading partner and investment destination in Africa, especially in infrastructure construction. Study of the spatial distribution of South Africa's population is of great significance to the cooperation of the two countries. Based on the census data from 1996 to 2011, this paper describes the spatial pattern and evolving trend of the diverse population of South Africa with time series and cross section data between 1996 and 2011 at county level, based on population density analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, population gravity center model, shift-share analysis, and unbalanced index. Using the software platform of ArcGIS and OpenGeoDa, conclusions are made as follows. (1) Population density of South Africa has "high on east and low on west" features, and also has multicore clustering characteristics in metropolitan areas and port cities. (2) Population density varies significantly in different regions. Metropolitan areas and coastal port cities have high population densities, while central and western regions have low population densities. (3) In terms of trend in population change, population distribution in South Africa became more and more imbalanced from 1996 to 2011. The gravity center of population moves to the northwest of South Africa since 1996. (4) Shift-share analysis shows population growth rate have undergone "high-low-high" stages for the last 15 years. At provincial level, Gauteng andWestern Cape have been always the places with dense populations.