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    25 March 2013, Volume 32 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Diverse Perspectives on Society and Environment——Plenary Lecture at the 32th International Geographical Congress
    Anne Buttimer
    2013, 32 (3):  323-331.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.001
    Abstract ( 444 )   PDF (9061KB) ( 735 )   Save
    This paper is based on the plenary lecture presented by Professor Anne Buttimer at the 32th International Geographical Congress (Cologne, August 27, 2012), with several revisions and amendments. Professor Anne Buttimer is a world famous geographer, gaining exceptionally high regard through her work in social and humanist geography. She was President of the International Geographical Union (IGU) during 2000-2004, and remains a Fellow of Royal Irish Academy, Royal Geographical Society (UK) and was recently elected as Vice President of Academia Europaea. In this paper, the author makes a systematic review of the traditions of geographic enquiry, especially those conterpoint voices on the relationship between society and environment down the centuries, tracing their philosophical sources both in the East and West. Referencing the four world views and their root metaphors, she then points out the problems in present-day geographic study, and calls for innovations in the future studies on this theme. The paper has a very high perspective and thus will be extremely influential.
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    Diverse Perspectives on Society and Environment——Plenary Lecture at the 32th International Geographical Congress
    Anne Buttimer
    2013, 32 (3):  332-340.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.002
    Abstract ( 449 )   PDF (9095KB) ( 803 )   Save
    This paper is based on the plenary lecture presented by Professor Anne Buttimer at the 32th International Geographical Congress (Cologne, August 27, 2012), with several revisions and amendments. Professor Anne Buttimer is a world famous geographer, gaining exceptionally high regard through her work in social and humanist geography. She was President of the International Geographical Union (IGU) during 2000-2004, and remains a Fellow of Royal Irish Academy, Royal Geographical Society (UK) and was recently elected as Vice President of Academia Europaea. In this paper, the author makes a systematic review of the traditions of geographic enquiry, especially those conterpoint voices on the relationship between society and environment down the centuries, tracing their philosophical sources both in the East and West. Referencing the four world views and their root metaphors, she then points out the problems in present-day geographic study, and calls for innovations in the future studies on this theme. The paper has a very high perspective and thus will be extremely influential.
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    Mechanisms of spatial organization of modern service industry in metropolises——Taking Nanjing as an example
    GUAN Weihua, CHEN Wen
    2013, 32 (3):  341-353.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.003
    Abstract ( 569 )   PDF (8690KB) ( 778 )   Save
    Development of modern service industry reflects a city's comprehensive competitive strength in a late-stage industrialization or post-industrialization society. Since the middle of 20th century, in the developed international cities such as New York, London, Tokyo, and Chicago, etc., low-end manufacturing industry has been transferred to the developing countries and service industry has evolved as a dominant economic activity, which dramatically promotes the ranking of those cities around the globe. Currently, the vast majority of researches on the spatial development of modern service industry mainly focus on the general principles. However, differences exist in the developmental processes between China and western countries, and therefore it is necessary to further investigate the spatial organization and mechanisms of the distribution of modern service industry, based on the actuality of metropolitan development in China. This paper first reviews related researches abroad and at home and summarizes the mechanisms of the spatial organization of modern service industry, including self-organizing innovation network, driving forces from the market and institutions, interventions of human and social factors, etc. It then conducts an empirical analysis, qualitatively and quantitatively, on the characteristics of the spatial organization of modern service industry of Nanjing city, and verifies the mechanisms mentioned above in order to provide references and examples for the improvement of the theories and methodologies of the planning of related industries. At last, the paper indicates that the road map combining“top-down”with“bottom-up”for the development of modern service industry as well as the research on dynamic mechanisms are the directions of future studies.
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    Influential factors and spatial impacts of gated communities under the background of globalization
    LIN Xiongbin, MA Xueguang, LI Guicai
    2013, 32 (3):  354-360.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.004
    Abstract ( 700 )   PDF (1335KB) ( 1189 )   Save
    With economic globalization and implementation of neo-liberalism policy in western countries, Gated Communities (GCs), with the characteristics of privatized living areas as well as differentiated and isolated social spaces, have become a unique phenomenon globally and have significant influences on urban society, policy and economic development. Based on an extensive review and summary of the related contemporary literature, this paper discusses the factors that affect the nature, type and formation of gated communities, especially the impacts of gated communities on the development and evolvement of urban areas. Gated communities are the consequence of the combination of economic globalization, neo-liberalism policy, institutional environment and the interactions of different types of stakeholders; they have the characteristics of closed physical space, isolated social environment and cultural compatibility. Gated communities have significant influences on urban physical environment, social environment, and cultural environment, which in turn have profound effects on the spatial evolution and development of urban areas. At last, we seek to make suggestions and measurements for the governance on gated communities both from the perspective of city government and urban planning.
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    Spatial distribution of urban land prices in Nanjing
    GAO Jinlong, CHEN Jianglong, YANG Diehan
    2013, 32 (3):  361-371.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.005
    Abstract ( 777 )   PDF (6098KB) ( 1002 )   Save
    Urban land supply is an important part of the foundation for urban expansion. Analyzing the spatial pattern of the price of different types of land is of great significance to urban land rational development, and it has become an important perspective from which researchers examine the process of urban expansion. By using the methods of conventional statistics and geostatistics, taking the selling prices of residential, industrial, and commercial land during 2001-2010 as samples, we analyzed the statistical characteristics and spatial distributions of transaction-based land prices in Nanjing City. The results showed that the spatial distributions of selling price are different for different types of land-use. Commercial land price is highly dependent on the extent of business activity of CBD (central business district), and the high value areas are concentrated near the center of the city—Xinjiekou & Confucius Temple District. The land price gradually reduces toward the periphery, showing a typical single-centered pattern. Residential land price is consistent with the level of environmental quality; high value areas have lower level of aggregation by comparison to commercial land, showing a trend of shift from the center to periphery of the city in a clear pattern of circular layers. Industry land price is determined mainly by outbound traffic conditions, environmental costs and the policy effects; the locations are further away from the city center, except for the industrial activities that have high demand of basic infrastructures and other conditions, such as high-tech industries. The distribution of industry land shows a multi-centered pattern.
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    Driving factors of urbanization in Jiangsu Province based on quantile regression
    NIU Pinyi, LU Yuqi, PENG Qian
    2013, 32 (3):  372-380.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.006
    Abstract ( 804 )   PDF (1895KB) ( 834 )   Save
    Study of the dynamic mechanism of urbanization in China is very important for the sustainable and rational progress of urbanization. The most commonly used statistical method in quantitative studies of urbanization abroad and at home is OLS regression (ordinary least squares), which only provides a rough assessment of driving forces of the dynamic process of urbanization. In this paper, by calculating coefficients of variation and using kernel density estimation method, we first describe the distribution of the counties in terms of urbanization levels, based on the statistics of urbanized population during 2000-2009 in Jiangsu Province. The results indicate that the differences in urbanization level among the counties remain unchanged throughout the years. With the overall rapid process of urbanization, the distribution starts to exhibit a“two peaks co-existing”pattern, on the low end and high end of the urbanization level. Quantile regression allows one to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the effect of the predictor variable on the response variable, thus we conduct a comparative analysis on the factors driving urbanization, using both quantile regression and OLS regression. In the study, the process of urbanization has been divided into two phases, before and after 2005, and OLS analysis has found that administrative power has decreasing effect on urbanization while the effects of market power and centrifugal force are relatively increasing. Quantile regression analysis provides more reliable and more detailed information, which shows that administrative power has less effect on the areas with higher urbanization level; centrifugal force has higher effect on the areas with higher urbanization level than the ones with lower urbanization level; the effect of market power has gone through an increasing phase and then a decreasing phase as the urbanization level continuously increases; industrial structure has complex and ever-changing effects; city level has stronger effect on the areas with higher urbanization level. Over all, urbanization of the counties in Jiangsu Province is a dynamic process showing different characteristics at different stages.
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    Comparative analysis of characteristics, effects and driving factors of urban sprawl in Changchun-Jilin during 2000-2009
    SUN Pingjun, FENG Xiaoping, SUN Hong, XIU Chunliang
    2013, 32 (3):  381-388.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.007
    Abstract ( 733 )   PDF (3893KB) ( 829 )   Save
    Economic core regions are the main space of national and regional economic growth and urbanization development, but at the same time face the severe problems of urban sprawl. The integrated Changchun-Jilin(Chang-Ji) region is an economic core region on a national scale, a pilot of cooperative development and opening in Tumenjiang region, and the major grain producing region in northeastern China. It shoulders multiple responsibilities such as economic growth, urbanization of population and food security. Therefore, selecting Chang-Ji as a research object for the study of urban sprawl is representative and of great practical significance. Based on remote sensing images in 2000, 2005, 2009's and Almanacs of the related years, using GIS and SPSS statistical tools, we conducted a comparative analysis on the extent, process, effects and driving factors of urban sprawl of Changchun City and Jilin City. The results show that, (1) Changchun City has a higher level of urban land expansion than Jilin City; Jilin City shows significant stage characteristics. (2) In terms of the extent of urban sprawl, both cities show a low level of land use intensity and a high level of sprawling; in Changchun City industrial development and urbanization of the population are roughly in the same pace, but in Jilin City majority of the new land is used for industrial development. (3) In regard to the process of urban sprawl, Changchun City takes the process of "neighboring areas pushing on", while Jilin City shows a process of "axle band expanding". (4) As far as the effects of urban sprawl are concerned, both cities are negatively affected, e.g., loss of ecological and life security, rapid decrease of cultivated land; the severity in Changchun City is more striking, starting to show big-city problems. (5) Industrialization and investment are the main driving factors for both cities, which show typical government-oriented characteristics, with different factors contributing various effects. In summary, the paper points out that spatial expansion of urban land of Chang-Ji twin cities are projected to eventually go through the same "pie-style" urban sprawl as Beijing City. A simple economical and intensive land use policy can't fundamentally solve the problem, therefore it is suggested to promote intensive use within the cities and cultivate regional city clusters to form a system of urban cities of reasonable sizes.
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    Vulnerability of migrant workers'livelihoods in Hangzhou City and the countermeasures
    SU Fei, MA Lisha, PANG Lingfeng, ZHAO Xiufang, PAN Yunxin
    2013, 32 (3):  389-399.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.008
    Abstract ( 612 )   PDF (539KB) ( 484 )   Save
    Migrant workers are one of the low status groups in big cities in China, easily struck by job loss, work-related accident, adverse economic conditions, and other social hazards; their livelihoods have increasingly become a critical issue affecting the national economy and livelihoods of the whole population during the socio-economic transition. From the vulnerability perspective, we established an index system to evaluate the livelihood assets based on the characteristics of migrant workers' livelihoods, and analyzed the vulnerability of their livelihoods in Hangzhou City. The results indicate that the livelihood assets of migrant workers in Hangzhou are showing typical characteristics of vulnerability, manifested by lack of education and training, shortage of human capital, prevalent low-quality rental housing, weakness of physical capital, low incomes, deprivation of financial capital, strong sense of being marginalized, and deficiency of social capital. Furthermore, we explored the applicability of the analysis framework of sustainable livelihoods to the studies of the issues of migrant workers' livelihoods in big cities. Based on the empirical analysis mentioned above, we put forward countermeasures and regulations in order to increase the migrant workers' livelihood assets and reduce their vulnerability, which provides a scientific reference and a practical example for the studies of sustainable livelihoods of migrant workers in Hangzhou and other major cities in China.
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    The research progress on greenhouse gas inventory methods
    MA Cuimei, XU Huaqing, SU Mingshan
    2013, 32 (3):  400-407.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.009
    Abstract ( 586 )   PDF (842KB) ( 531 )   Save
    Greenhouse gas inventory provides emission and absorption data and plays a fundamental role in the establishment and evaluation of the policies and measures in response to climate change. Although United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has implemented a national Greenhouse Gas inventory method based on producer responsibility, many studies suggest that the method has the problem of“carbon leakage”, namely, letting the developed countries evade the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions, in addition to other issues, and put forward other inventory methods. This paper classifies the current greenhouse gas inventory estimate methods into three categories, including producer responsibility method, consumer responsibility method and shared responsibility method, and furthermore summarizes multiple methods in the three categories. The principle, advantages and limits of the methods are analyzed by graphs, charts and data. Based on the current analysis, producer responsibility method will still be the recommended national greenhouse gas inventory method in the near future. Lastly, we propose to strengthen the studies of consumer responsibility method and shared responsibility method in China, establish and improve statistical data, and try to develop provincial level greenhouse gas inventory by consumer responsibility method as a supplement.
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    Research progress on carbon emissions in accommodation industry
    LI Xu, QIN Yaochen, ZHANG Lijun, LU Chaojun
    2013, 32 (3):  408-415.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.010
    Abstract ( 611 )   PDF (901KB) ( 779 )   Save
    Accommodation industry is one of the major energy-consuming sectors of the tourism industry. Reduction of carbon emission in accommodation industry has become an important part of the countermeasures to global climate change, and is increasingly getting attentions from the academia. In this paper, by combing through and summarizing the relevant literature at home and abroad, we found that studies of carbon emissions in accommodation industry have been centered around the topics such as the estimations of carbon emissions through direct and indirect energy consumptions, the factors impacting carbon emission, the steps to reduce carbon emissions, and so on. The majority of the research methods are quantitative, involving a variety of statistical analyses. The related studies in China have lagged behind in comparison to the ones abroad. Overall, the research topics on carbon emissions in accommodation industry have changed from superficial to in-depth, and the research methods from simple to complex. The research has provided a scientific basis for energy conservation and emission reduction in accommodation industry, and has laid a foundation for the research on low-carbon tourism development.
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    Response of crop water use efficiency to elevated temperature and CO2 concentration——A review
    LIU Yujie, TAO Fulu
    2013, 32 (3):  416-424.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.011
    Abstract ( 716 )   PDF (441KB) ( 1076 )   Save
    Global climate change, with elevated CO2 concentration and temperature rise as the two major indicators, has great impact on crop water use efficiency. Study of the characteristic and mechanism of the response of crop water use efficiency to elevated CO2 concentration and temperature rise is of great significance to revealing the mechanism of how climate change impacts crop production. This paper presents the research progress on the responses of crop water use efficiency to elevated CO2 concentration and temperature rise, the synergistic effect of elevated CO2 concentration and temperature rise, and methods of the research. In addition, this paper points out the key issues that need to be resolved in the future, including: (1) synergistic effect of multi-factors, (2) differences in the responses of different species, (3) response processes at different levels of scale, and (4) adaptability of crop water use efficiency to climate change.
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    Spatial-temporal change of climate resources and climatic productivity in Shandong Province during 1961-2011
    HAN Wei, HAN Yonghong, YANG Shenbin
    2013, 32 (3):  425-434.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.012
    Abstract ( 661 )   PDF (2684KB) ( 659 )   Save
    Based on the meteorological data of 21 weather stations of Shandong Province during 1961-2011, the spatial and temporal changes of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by the methods of linear trend, IDW, Mann-Kendall, and Fisher optimal segmentation. Then, the climatic productivity was analyzed by Thornthwaite Memorial model, and the sensitivity of climatic productivity to temperature and precipitation was investigated. The results showed a general warming trend in the last 51 years in Shandong, with a tendency rate of 0.359℃/10a. The temperature increased distinctly in the central Shandong. The annual precipitation showed a downward trend with extreme fluctuations; the precipitation variability was high in the 80s of the 20th century. The precipitation decreased distinctly in north, south, and southeast. The climatic productivity exhibited obvious fluctuations with a slight increasing trend. The climatic productivity reached its minimum during 1981-1989, and reached its maximum during 2003-2011. The climatic productivity decreased gradually from south to north and from east to west, and the climatic productivity increased distinctly in southwest. The "warm-wet" climate is favorable to crop production and thus the climate warming is beneficial to the improvement of climatic productivity in Shandong Province. However, little rainfall is the main limiting factor of the climatic productivity. More attention needs to be focused on the utilization of water resources.
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    Distribution and change of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, China
    JIANG Chong, ZHU Feng, YANG Chen, WANG Fei, MU Xingmin, LI Rui
    2013, 32 (3):  435-446.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.013
    Abstract ( 598 )   PDF (9404KB) ( 877 )   Save
    Based on 52-year (1960-2011) daily data from 47 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, the annual and seasonal Photosynthetically Active Radiations (PAR) were calculated with equations of Angstrom and FAO Penman-Monteith. The spatial distribution, change trends and their causes were analyzed and detected with spatial analysis method of spline interpolation, Pettitt abrupt change point detection method and correlation analysis between PAR and relative factors. The results were as followed: (1) the PAR became weaker from north part to south part, i.e. from northern region of Qinling Mountains (NQ), to southern region of Qinling Mountains (SQ), to Han River Basin (HB) and to Valleys of Ba and Wu Mountain Areas (VBW). PAR in summer was the highest, followed by spring, autumn and winter. The distribution of PAR in spring, autumn and winter showed the same spatial pattern as annual PAR, but in summer, PAR in NQ is also the highest, then HB and VBW, and SQ being the lowest one. (2) PAR declined significantly in past 52a, the declining rates became smaller from south and east part to north and west part of this region. Except for an insignificant increase in spring, PAR decreased in other seasons, and the rate in summer was fastest, followed by that in winter and autumn. The maximum and minimum PAR appeared in 1960s-1970s and 2000s respectively in spring, summer and autumn. There were almost half of stations showing an increase of PAR mainly in west and central parts, and the other half stations showing decrease in spring. PAR of 79% of stations decreased in autumn, and the increasing stations were also located in west and central parts. PAR in summer and winter declined in most stations, and the decreasing rate was bigger in south part of Qingling Mountains than in north part. (3) 89% of stations had abrupt change points of yearly and summer PAR, and about 85% and 90% of them happened between 1979 and 1983, respectively. There were no obvious abrupt change points in spring or autumn. (4) Climate change (wind speed declining), fast urbanization and more aerosol emission from industrial production were the main reasons for the continuous decline of PAR, and the aerosol emitted from volcanoes was the main reason for fluctuation of PAR.
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    Characteristics of the changes of springtime cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds in Qilian Mt. Region under the background of global warming
    SHI Guangpu, SHI Yuanyuan, Guo Junting, CHEN Shaoyong, LIN Shu, WANG Yinhua
    2013, 32 (3):  447-454.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.014
    Abstract ( 490 )   PDF (4286KB) ( 546 )   Save
    Based on meteorological data of springtime cloud shape and surface air temperature at 26 meteorological stations during 1961-2005 in Qilian Mountain and the surrounding areas, using linear regression analysis and wavelet analysis , the characteristics of temporal variation and spatial distribution of the frequency of Springtime Cb clouds and its relationship with climatic warming are analyzed. The NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data in the corresponding period are selected for the analysis of the circulation of Springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region. The results indicate that: (1) The frequency of springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region is obviously higher than that in Hexi corridor and Qaidam basin. (2) The springtime mean air temperature in Qilian Mt. Region increased 0.9 ℃ with an increase rate of 0.18 ℃/10a over the recent 45 years, and the increase tendency has become clearer since the 1990s. (3) The frequency of springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region decreased weakly over the recent 45 years, and the decreased tendency has become clearer since the 1990s. (4) In the time scale of 25 years, the frequency of springtime Cb clouds and the springtime mean air temperature showed a pattern of anti- phase variation mainly in Qilian Mt. Region. However, in the time scale of 6 years with the strongest air temperature surge, the frequency of springtime Cb clouds and the spring mean air temperature showed a pattern of in-phase variation. (5) There was a significant difference in the 500 hPa atmospheric circulation between the years with abundant springtime Cb clouds and the years with scarce springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region, and the frequency of springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region changed in response to the anomaly of 500 hPa circulation in the Eurasian areas. In abundant years, with the Eastern Asia deep trough relatively weaker and the Ural high pressure ridge relatively stronger than in other years, guided by the north-northwest airflow on the front side of the ridge, Polar Cold Air moved to the northwestern China through a northwest path; the low-value systems from Central Asia continuously developed and moved to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. At the same time, movement of the warm and wet airflow from the South China Sea and the East China Sea toward the inland areas strengthened remarkably, and it collided with the cold air from the northern Plateau. More frequent convergences of strengthening warm and cold airflows caused the increase of the frequency of springtime Cb clouds in Qilian Mt. Region. In scarce years, warm anticyclones from West Siberia to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau abnormally strengthened, and the Eastern Asia deep Trough is relatively stronger than in other years. The path of cold airflow leaned to the east; the regions from Asian continent to western Pacific showed significant winter monsoon characteristics. Northwest wind strengthened and blocked the movement of warm and wet airflow from the Southeast to the Northwest of China. Less frequent collisions of the warm and cold airflows in Qilian Mt. Region caused the decrease of the frequency of springtime Cb clouds in the region.
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    Influences of environmental risks of tourist destinations on tourism emergency events in China and their regional distributions
    XIE Chaowu, SHEN Shifei
    2013, 32 (3):  455-464.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.015
    Abstract ( 454 )   PDF (1002KB) ( 550 )   Save
    Environmental risk is an important factor influencing the safety of tourists and tourism activities. Based on the data of tourism emergency events between 2006 and 2010 in China, combining the methods of Crosstables chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and optimal scaling regression, this paper presents a statistical analysis of the relations between environmental risk factors and characteristics of tourism emergency events in China and their regional distribution. The study has found that the risks of touring environment, atmospheres environment and road conditions are the major environmental risk factors that cause the tourism emergency events, such as accidents, natural disasters, and public health incidents, with the accidents having the highest incidence rate. Environmental risk factors exhibit a remarkable correlation with types and severity of tourism emergency events, and have significant effects on the degrees of casualty. Different regions have different distributions of tourism environmental risks, and therefore different places should take different measures to control the risks based on the characteristics of local environmental risks respectively.
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    Correlation between regional agglomeration and performance of tourism industry——A case study of 31 provinces of China
    WANG Kai, YI Jing
    2013, 32 (3):  465-474.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.016
    Abstract ( 457 )   PDF (583KB) ( 478 )   Save
    Based on the cross-section data in 2010, by using industrial agglomeration indexes such as Gini coefficient, E-G index and regional concentration ratio, and industrial performance measurement indexes such as profit margins, employment coefficient and labor productivity, this paper discusses the relationship between the spatial agglomeration and performance of tourism industry in China. The results indicate that agglomeration of China's tourism industry is overall fairly low, but the internal sectors of tourism industry are showing clear characteristics of regional agglomeration. There's a high consistency between the spatial differences in the degree of agglomeration of tourism industry and the differences in the level of regional socio-economic development in China. Generally speaking, the agglomeration of tourism industry has positive effects on the improvement of the performance of the industry. Especially, the spatial agglomeration has significantly positive impacts on the increase of profit margins and labor productivity, but very little impact on the increase of employment opportunities. On the basis of above findings, relevant countermeasures are put forward aiming at the improvement of the performance of agglomerated tourism industry in China.
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    Characteristics of temporal-spatial differences in landscape ecological security and the driving mechanism in Tianchi scenic zone of Xinjiang
    SHI Hui, YANG Zhaoping, HAN Fang, SHI Tiange, LUAN Fuming
    2013, 32 (3):  475-485.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.017
    Abstract ( 621 )   PDF (3579KB) ( 593 )   Save
    The Tianchi scenic zone of Xinjiang, one of Xinjiang Tianshan Mountain's world natural heritage sites, contains well-preserved natural landscapes. Landscape ecological security is an important environmental protection indicator. In this article, gridded spatial models for the degrees of landscape ecological security in the scenic zone are constructed based on TM images from 2000 to 2010, almanacs of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2010 and the data of field survey. By using ESDA and semi-variogram for spatial analysis, and the stepwise regression methods, the characteristics and the driving forces of the evolvement of temporal-spatial differences among the individual quadrats are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) During 2000-2010, the areas with high degrees of landscape ecological security shifted from south to north; the areas with medium degrees shifted to the center from the south and north; the areas with low degrees showed a trend of expanding from south to north. (2) From 2000 to 2010, Moran's I reflected positive spatial autocorrelation of landscape ecological security, but the level of spatial concentration decreased and was unstable with time. The local indicators of spatial association showed that the degrees of landscape ecological security exhibited a trend of change from a clustered to a random distributed pattern. (3) Within the variation range, the value of landscape ecological security exhibited anisotropy and weak spatial correlation features, as a result of combined effects of structural and stochastic factors. (4) The longitude, latitude and altitude significantly affected the degree of landscape ecological security. In small and medium landscape scales, grazing, tourism, and policy activities had major impacts on the evolvement of the landscape ecological security.
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    Simulation of dynamic development of a business tourism city——A case study of Suzhou Industrial Park
    WANG Degen, SONG Yuqin, LIU Changxue
    2013, 32 (3):  486-496.  doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.018
    Abstract ( 521 )   PDF (3062KB) ( 623 )   Save
    Business tourism is in a trend of worldwide fast-paced development, and it has been listed as one of the key specialty tourisms to develop in China. Business destinations are the important cornerstones for the development of business tourism; construction and development of business destinations has become a hot research topic. In this article, based on system dynamics theory, we selected the impact factors such as population, economy, business tourism, environment and technology, and created a system dynamic model for the development of a business destination city. Taking Suzhou Industrial Park as a case study, we simulated and evaluated the trend of its dynamic development from 2006 to 2020.The results indicated that the dynamic development of a business tourism city is a very interactive system from within. Each subsystem maintains a growth momentum during the time period of simulation, but the growth rate varies in different subsystems. The trends and growth rates of the internal factors in each subsystem have similarities and differences.
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