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    Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods
    Peng CUI, Qiang ZOU
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2016, 35 (2): 137-147.   DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.001
    Abstract1480)   HTML6)    PDF (1089KB)(2301)      

    Debris flows and flash floods are widely distributed mountain hazards in China. Effective hazard mitigation and prevention require understanding of hazards formation mechanisms and their potential risks. This article elaborates on the formation mechanism, risk analysis, and risk management of debris flows and flash floods. Surface runoff and material supply volume incensement, hazard scale amplification due to outburst of multiple channel blockages and bed erosion as hazard formation mechanism are discussed. Base on the dynamic process of debris flows and flash floods as well as vulnerability assessment of elements at risk, methods of risk assessment and mapping are proposed. Comprehensive engineering and non-engineering measures for hazards control shall be guided by the result of risk analysis that identifies the hazardous level of debris flows and flash floods and incorporates the vulnerability of different elements at risk. Finally, this article discusses strategies when facing risk of these hazards and puts forward a risk management system that involves the participation of local communities.

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    Strategic choices of regional tourism under the new normal of China's economic growth
    Quansheng GE, Jianchao XI
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2015, 34 (7): 793-799.   DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.07.001
    Abstract1137)   HTML312)    PDF (611KB)(30415)      

    The new normal of China's economic growth has profound impact on the development of regional tourism in china. Based on an analysis of the characteristics of the development of China's tourism industry, this article addresses the general trend of regional tourism development in the future, and puts forward a new approach to realize innovative regional tourism development. It shows that the tourism industry presents six main characteristics: (1) the tourism industry in China is expanding in scale but at the same time, services are becoming increasingly personalized. Characteristics and effects of a country of strong tourism attraction begin to appear; (2) cross-border, cross-industry enterprises gradually lead the development of tourism and plan the development at the global scale; (3) tourism is becoming an important industry and a comprehensive, coordinated development of regional tourism industry has become an important goal of regional economic development; (4) a high-quality workforce begins to form and the overall quality of services has gradually enhanced; (5) the Internet is transforming the tourism markets, enterprises, and business models, and changing the territory of traditional tourism industry; (6) "people-oriented" green development supports the construction of an "ecological culture." Correspondingly, tourism development is facilitating and being integrated into regional development strategies of China, including the development of tourism industry in central and western China, urban vacation and tourism development, the overall development of ecological cultural areas, regional tourism network development, and the development of innovative regional tourism management models. Under the "new normal" of China's economic growth, new strategies for China's regional tourism development should include constructing trans-regional tourism destinations, improving investment and innovation, realizing regional integrated governance, fostering the internationalization of business entities, and achieving integrated tourism risk prevention.

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    Land-use change and ecosystem services:concepts, methods and progress
    FU Bojie, ZHANG Liwei
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2014, 33 (4): 441-446.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.001
    Abstract2342)      PDF (415KB)(3111)      
    As a frontier and hot topic in ecology and geography, the study of ecosystem services has attracted the interest of many scholars and research institutions. By changing the structure and processes of ecosystems, landuse change affects the provisioning capability of ecosystems for products and services. Study of the relationships between ecosystem processes and services, the relationships among multiple ecosystem services, and the integration and optimization of these services at the regional scale in the context of land-use change urgently needs to be enhanced. The results of such research will be critically important for informing and supporting activities of ecosystem management. This paper introduces the concepts and methods of the study of land- use change and ecosystem services and discusses the shortcomings of existing studies and future prospects of land-use change and ecosystem services research.
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    Cited: CSCD(151)
    Progress and prospects in research on mountain hazards in China
    CUI Peng
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2014, 33 (2): 145-152.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.001
    Abstract1492)      PDF (1231KB)(1816)      
    In this paper, first, the research progress on fundamental theories on mountain hazards and prevention techniques are briefly reviewed. In the current research, the distribution of mountain hazards has been recognized and the hazards assessment methods for mountain torrents, debris flow and landslides have been established, and the principles and calculations of landslide stability analysis have been developed. In addition, the stress-strain relation of debris flow slurry and the formulae of velocity, discharge and impact of debris flow have been established, and a model of viscous debris flow initiation has also been proposed. We also presented the magnitude amplification effects of mountain torrents and debris flows. Meanwhile, the methods to forecast mountain hazards have been developed by analyzing both rainfall and ground factors. Based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of mountain hazards, a number of monitoring instruments have been invented, and especially the early warning methods have been used in the underdeveloped regions. Furthermore, a systematic technology for coping with mountain hazards has been developed. The topics on the formation, development, forecasting and prevention, protection strategies and risk management of mountain hazards have been proposed for future research. Finally, aiming at the requirements of the reduction of disasters for the nation and the goals of the academic progresses, we propose the topics that are worthy of more attention in the future research, such as the response of mountain hazards to ecology, the effects of climate change on mountain hazards, the prediction of catastrophe, the mesomechanic behaviors of the soil affected by water, the theories and methods of hazard risk assessment, the hazard forecasting model based on the formation mechanisms and the improvement of prediction and recovery technology.
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    Cited: CSCD(37)
    Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China
    ZHENG Jingyun, HAO Zhixin, FANG Xiuqi, GE Quansheng
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2014, 33 (1): 3-12.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001
    Abstract1484)      PDF (4486KB)(2609)      
    In the current research on climate changes it is a hot topic to study the changes of extreme climatic events during historical periods. In this paper, based on the reconstructions from multiple proxy types including historical documents, tree-rings, ice cores and lake sediments in the published literature of the recent 20 years, we summarized the characteristics of changes of extreme climate events during the past 2000 years in China. The analysis shows that: (1) During the cold periods of 1500-1900 and 220-580, there appeared extremely cold winters that were even colder than the cold winters in the years after 1950, and there appeared hot summers with daily highest temperature exceeding record high of the years in the 20th century as well. In the past 1600 years, the cold summer events in Northeast of China mainly occurred during the period of 1400-1900. (2) In the eastern monsoon region of China, the extreme drought events prevailed during the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events often occurred during the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events occurred most frequently. The frequency of persistent extreme drought was higher during the 7th-8th century, 12th-14th century and late-15th century to mid-17th century; the frequency of sustaining extreme flood was higher during the 10th-11th century and after the mid-17th century. The time intervals of extreme drought/flood events are different in North China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley and south of Yangtze River. In addition, the notable extreme drought events, such as "Chong Zhen Drought" in the Ming Dynasty, and "Ding Wu Famine" in the Qing Dynasty, were recognized. (3) In the arid region of Northwest China, the extreme drought events mainly occurred during the periods of 1471-1520, 1581-1650, 1711-1760, 1811-1860 and 1921-1970. 1710s was the most severe drought decade during the past 1000 years. However, due to the very limited climate proxy data for this region, the primary characteristics of complete change process of the extreme events were difficult to evaluate. (4) Although drought frequently occurred in southwest of China during the early 21th century, the extreme drought events as severe as the one in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 occurred many times during the historical periods.
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    Cited: CSCD(41)
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2013, 32 (7): 995-1005.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.001
    Abstract857)      PDF (8663KB)(1173)      
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    Cited: CSCD(1)
    Geographies in 2050
    BRUNN Stanley D.
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2013, 32 (7): 1006-1017.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.07.002
    Abstract566)      PDF (3971KB)(946)      
    The "time" focus of most human and environmental geography research is on the present and past with little interest or inclination, unfortunately, in examining place, landscape and regional futures, even though space, place, region and environment are "geographical constants". This reluctance may be attributed to being unfamiliar with previous research conducted by social, cultural, political and economic geographers or an appreciation what such studies have to offer. This article seeks to fill this "gap" by informing the geography communities what geographers have done vis-à-vis the future and what they might contribute. Geographers in the early 1970s began to look at the distinguishing features of emerging postindustrial economies and societies, the advances in information and communication technologies, urban futures, a changing social order, issues of resource scarcity and environmental modification at regional and global scales. Some of these pioneering geographical futurists borrowed ideas and concepts from "geographical" science fiction writers last and this century and also from scholars in a variety of disciplines. Specific examples of these writers and scholars are discussed and listed in the bibliography as well as two major interdisciplinary journals, The Futurist(published by the World Future Society) and Future Studies. A number of forecasting methods and models have been used by futurists; these include trend extrapolation, cross-impact analysis, simulation, scenario writing and the Delphi consensus method. Each has specific advantages and disadvantages when it comes to predicting and projecting likely and alternative futures. Today future studies are gaining respect by those in the corporate, education and policy communities. Evidence is the growing interest in future studies is found in academic journals, awards and planning for worlds at 2050 and beyond. Future studies focusing on the Global South or Global North or regional economic and demographic futures or global environmental futures need to consider not only "certainties" (expected worlds), but also the worlds of "uncertainty" and the worlds of "unintended consequences". I suggest 29 specific research foci about economic, cultural, social, political and environmental topics that geographers might consider between now and 2050. Also I discuss a half-dozen topics specifically about China's economic, cultural, political and environmental futures that would appeal to members of various geographical communities; these include the greening of China, China as an emerging world power, Chinese consumer worlds and ethics, China as a global leader in innovation, demographic issues and digital divides, and emerging religious/spiritual faces and landscapes in China. I also prepared seven innovative maps for discussion and analysis: the Asianization of European worlds, future urban systems, major transcontinental transportation projects, time culture and regions, autonomous regions and new states and shifting environmental zones. I conclude by suggesting the Chinese geography community use the Delphi approach to investigate the country's economic, social and environmental futures. The findings would be invaluable in regional and national planning and provide geographers a strong role in developing and implementing humane social and environmental futures. Geographers are also advised to work with scholars in other disciplines on timely topics about national, regional and global futures.
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    Cited: CSCD(1)
    Randomized Controlled Trails: A state-of-art impact evaluation method
    ZHANG Linxiu
    PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY    2013, 32 (6): 843-851.   DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.001
    Abstract1430)      PDF (1063KB)(1535)      
    Internationally, impact evaluation has become an essential part of program design. However, the challenge on impact evaluation is how to attribute, or how to find out the true impact of program intervention. In general there are two broad types of evaluation methods: non-experimental and experimental. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to briefly compare basic characteristics of each and different evaluation methods, and (2) to discuss in more detail the basic principles and major implementation issues of Randomized Controlled Trails (RCTs). Then the paper uses a current evaluation project of baby nutrition intervention carried out by Rural Education Action Program (REAP) to further elaborate how to evaluate the "true" project impacts using RCTs. Methods belong to non-experimental types include simple comparison of before and after treatment, DID, PSM, IV, RDD, etc. RCT as a rigorous impact evaluation method has its key advantage of avoiding selection bias: the issue that could not be easily solved using other methods. There are five key components in designing an RCT, theory based casual chain analysis to determine what type of interventions in order to achieve target impact, the next is to determine intervention unit and also the way and level of randomizing. A careful examination on likelihood of other factors which may have impact on the outcome should be carefully examined so to be built into intervention design. The last but very important work is to determine project size through power calculation. The implementation of an RCT need to go through "three steps": first is baseline survey, then to randomly assign a group of sample as intervention group while the other half as control group. The last step is evaluation survey. Only with both baseline and evaluation data, one can use then to measure the true impact of project intervention. Like any other methods, RCTs also has its implementation challenges, such as spillover effects, cross contamination, non-compliance or attrition. As a cutting-edge impact evaluation method, Randomized Control Trail (RCT) has a great potential to be widely used in rigorous impact evaluation.
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    Cited: CSCD(1)