Articles
PENG Bangwen, WU Jiawei, YANG Qingqing, XIONG Chenran
Lithography machines are the core equipment of semiconductor manufacturing and play a crucial role in technological revolution and economic transformation. Based on the global lithography machine trade data from 2007 to 2022 obtained from the UN Comtrade Database, this study employed network structural analysis and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) to explore the characteristics of change and driving factors of the global lithography machine trade network. The results show that: 1) At the overall network level, the global lithography machine trade volume had continuously expanded from 2007 to 2022, with the network density, connectivity, and average degree first declining and then rising, the clustering coefficient steadily increasing, and both the average path length and network diameter decreasing. 2) At the individual network level, trade was highly concentrated among a few core economies in both imports and exports, with a trend toward import diversification and the emergence of secondary exporters. China's mainland had risen as the largest importer, while the export dominance of the Netherlands and Japan had strengthened, and the United States' export influence had weakened. 3) In terms of spatial organization, the global lithography equipment trade exhibited a "strong North-weak South" pattern, with the spatial center shifting eastward and intra-regional trade connections strengthening significantly. Meanwhile, the core-periphery structure had evolved from a U.S.-led unipolar system to a China-U.S. bipolar configuration, as trade linkages between the core and semi-core layers intensified while peripheral connections remained sparse. 4) With regard to the driving factors, the network was jointly shaped by endogenous structures, node attributes, and relational attributes, displaying reciprocity, path dependence, and the Matthew effect. Information and communication technology (ICT) levels, innovation output, and intellectual property protection promoted both imports and exports, while R&D investment mainly stimulated exports. Geographic, linguistic, and institutional proximities had positive effects, whereas the Wassenaar Arrangement significantly constrained network development. Overall, the driving mechanism had gradually shifted from capability-driven to structure-driven, highlighting the growing importance of endogenous structural effects. This study not only provides a new perspective for understanding the global lithography machine trade pattern but also offers empirical insights for China's trade and industrial policy in the lithography sector.