数字经济驱动居民消费：作用机制与空间效应

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.05.002

Abstract

Abstract:

The digital economy is a new driving force for China's economic development and an important growth point for expanding domestic demand. This study examined the mechanism of the digital economy affecting household consumption. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2011 to 2020 and using the mediation effect model and the spatial Durbin model, this study examined the mechanism and spatial effects of the digital economy on household consumption and conducted an expanded analysis from the temporal and regional dimensions. The results show that: 1) The digital economy can directly promote household consumption. 2) The indirect effect of the digital economy on consumption is to improve the diversification of products on the supply side, increase household income on the demand side, and promote market integration on the market side. 3) While promoting local consumption, the digital economy also has positive spillover effects among provinces with similar economic levels. 4) The results of the expanded analysis show that the role of the digital economy in driving consumption is sustainable over time, which increases with the improvement of the economic level. Meanwhile, the effect is stronger in the central and western regions than in the eastern region, showing the characteristics of benefiting the poor and favoring the less developed regions. These results expanded the research perspectives of digital economy driving consumer consumption, and provide a decision reference for the strategy of boosting consumer demand based on the digital economy.

Key words: digital economy, consumption, supply and demand, market, spatial spillover

YANG Fang, ZHANG Hai, LIU Xiaorong. Digital economy driving household consumption:Mechanism and spatial effects[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(5): 837-851.

Figures/Tables 15

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Benchmark regression results of digital economy driving household consumption

变量	居民消费
数字经济	0.540^**(2.19)
消费率	0.671^***(5.26)
抚养负担	-1.046^***(-3.89)
城镇化	2.150^***(8.45)
社会保障	0.009(0.26)
物流效率	0.108^**(2.54)
常数项	7.948^***(21.99)
$N$	279
$R 2$	0.869

Tab.3

Tab.4

Testing results of the transmission mechanism from digital economy to household consumption

变量	产品多样性		居民收入		市场一体化
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
数字经济	1.996^*(1.90)	0.463^*(1.88)	0.577^***(4.44)	-0.127(-0.62)	0.486^**(2.23)	0.335^*(1.66)
产品多样性		0.039^**(2.56)
居民收入				1.156^***(11.74)
市场一体化						0.421^***(6.13)
消费率	-0.952^*(-1.75)	0.708^***(5.58)	0.002(0.03)	0.669^***(6.60)	-0.049(-0.44)	0.692^***(5.84)
抚养负担	-2.483^**(-2.17)	-0.950^***(-3.54)	-0.407^***(-2.87)	-0.575^***(-2.64)	-0.491(-2.07)	-0.839^***(-3.32)
城镇化	5.343^***(4.93)	1.943^***(7.36)	1.019^***(7.59)	0.972^***(4.31)	-0.538^***(-2.39)	2.377^***(9.93)
社会保障	0.184(1.23)	0.002(0.06)	-0.042^**(-2.27)	0.058^**(2.05)	-0.052(-1.54)	0.031(0.94)
物流效率	0.170(0.94)	0.101^**(2.41)	-0.018(-0.79)	0.128^***(3.80)	-0.026(-0.70)	0.118^**(3.01)
常数项	4.072^***(2.65)	7.790^***(21.49)	9.673^***(50.75)	-3.236^***(-3.25)	2.08^***(6.52)	7.069^***(19.35)
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
时间效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
$N$	279	279	279	279	279	279
$R 2$	0.685	0.873	0.981	0.918	0.778	0.887

Tab.4

Tab.5

Tab.6

Tab.7

Regression results of the spatial Durbin model

变量	邻接权重	逆距离权重	经济权重	经济地理嵌套权重
数字经济	0.994^***(11.07)	1.034^***(9.89)	0.584^***(6.23)	0.763^***(9.36)
消费率	0.351^***(3.47)	0.537^***(5.70)	0.717^***(7.35)	0.724^***(7.51)
抚养负担	0.357(1.29)	0.351(1.21)	0.197(1.00)	0.151(0.78)
城镇化	2.184^***(29.23)	1.943^***(27.71)	1.462^***(17.19)	1.346^***(15.85)
社会保障	-0.036^**(-2.40)	0.024(1.63)	-0.028^**(-2.13)	0.002(0.16)
物流效率	0.044^*(1.91)	-0.012(-0.71)	0.013(0.70)	0.038^**(2.35)
数字经济空间项	-0.117(-0.67)	0.375(0.69)	0.516^*(1.85)	0.480(1.21)
消费率空间项	0.308(1.61)	2.658^***(4.61)	-0.584^**(-2.23)	-0.652(-1.35)
抚养负担空间项	-0.784^*(-1.74)	-6.951^***(-4.87)	-1.659^***(-2.98)	-5.596^***(-5.93)
城镇化空间项	-1.098^***(-5.89)	-1.625^***(-2.69)	1.016^***(3.77)	1.435^***(3.30)
社会保障空间项	0.110^***(3.53)	0.230^*(1.84)	-0.028(-0.65)	-0.238^***(-3.22)
物流效率空间项	0.176^***(4.46)	0.890^***(6.64)	0.077^*(1.66)	0.352^***(4.49)
$ρ$	0.283^***(4.10)	0.148(0.77)	0.191^*(1.88)	0.146(0.92)
σ²	0.006^***(12.36)	0.005^***(12.88)	0.005^***(12.53)	0.005^***(12.25)
个体效应	否	否	否	否
时间效应	是	是	是	是
$N$	310	310	310	310
$R 2$	0.912	0.906	0.938	0.928

Tab.7

Tab.8

Tab.9

Tab.10

Regression results of panel threshold model

变量	居民消费
消费率	0.797^***(6.90)
抚养负担	-0.811^***(-3.36)
城镇化	1.648^***(7.00)
社会保障	0.024(0.77)
物流效率	0.140^***(3.68)
$数字经济 (l n r g d p$ ≤10.129)	-0.701^**(-2.56)
$数字经济 (10.129 < l n r g d p$ ≤10.468)	0.275(1.23)
$数字经济 (l n r g d p$ >10.468)	0.591^***(2.69)
常数项	8.069^***(30.50)
个体效应	是
时间效应	是
$N$	279
$R 2$	0.897

Tab.10

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.11

Tab.12

Tab.13

Robustness test of spatial effects

变量	SDM		SAR
变量	(1) 经济权重	(2) 嵌套权重	(3) 经济权重	(4) 嵌套权重
数字经济			0.863^***(8.69)	0.952^***(11.33)
信息服务业	0.061^***(9.47)	0.069^***(10.38)
信息服务业空间项	0.044^**(2.31)	0.038(1.14)
$ρ$	0.205^**(2.05)	0.243(1.56)	0.379^***(5.53)	0.638^***(8.29)
σ²	0.005^***(12.97)	0.005^***(12.14)	0.007^***(10.97)	0.006^***(12.67)
控制变量	是	是	是	是
直接效应	0.063^***(9.58)	0.070^***(10.05)	0.887^***(9.03)	1.004^***(11.82)
间接效应	0.070^***(3.13)	0.074^*(1.80)	0.508^***(3.72)	1.716^***(2.80)
总效应	0.133^***(5.51)	0.144^***(3.26)	1.395^***(8.27)	2.720^***(4.28)
个体固定	否	否	否	否
时点固定	是	是	是	是
$R 2$	0.953	0.721	0.982	0.708

Tab.13

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一级指标	一级指标权重	二级指标	二级指标权重	测度方法
数字产业	0.293	信息服务业就业	0.092	信息服务业就业人数/总就业人数
		信息服务业产值	0.101	信息服务业产值/GDP
		电信业务量	0.100	电信业务总量/总人口
数字设施	0.197	光缆密度	0.089	光缆线路长度/行政区划面积
数字设施	0.197	移动基站密度	0.108	移动电话基站数/总人口
数字用户	0.332	移动电话普及率	0.112	移动电话用户/总人口
		互联网普及率	0.112	网民数量/总人口
		移动互联网普及率	0.109	移动互联网用户/总人口
数字平台	0.178	域名数	0.088	域名数
数字平台	0.178	网站数	0.090	网站数

变量名称	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
居民消费	9.578	0.356	8.461	10.553
数字经济	0.278	0.119	0.094	0.810
产品多样性	8.562	1.743	1.945	12.020
居民收入	9.864	0.384	8.917	10.988
市场一体化	0.933	0.368	0.045	1.937
人均GDP	10.746	0.418	9.705	11.847
消费率	0.321	0.052	0.215	0.499
抚养负担	0.143	0.038	0.067	0.255
城镇化	0.573	0.131	0.227	0.896
社会保障	7.344	0.522	6.208	8.748
物流效率	0.891	0.531	0.321	2.188

权重类型	指标	2012年	2014年	2016年	2018年	2020年
逆距离权重	居民消费	0.319^***(3.90)	0.336^***(4.09)	0.339^***(4.13)	0.356^***(4.33)	0.341^***(4.15)
逆距离权重	数字经济	0.175^***(2.43)	0.097^*(1.54)	0.117^**(1.794)	0.086^*(1.44)	0.152^***(2.352)
经济权重	居民消费	0.399^***(4.84)	0.413^***(5.01)	0.417^***(5.04)	0.410^***(5.00)	0.400^***(4.86)
经济权重	数字经济	0.381^***(4.92)	0.352^***(4.635)	0.349^***(4.60)	0.338^***(4.52)	0.314^***(4.46)

权重类型	LM检验				Hausman检验		LR检验
	LM-Error		LM-Lag		Hausman检验		LR-SEM		LR-SAR
	统计值	P	统计值	P	Chi(2)	P	Chi(2)	P	Chi(2)	P
逆距离权重	66.71	<0.001	6.880	0.010	438.87	<0.001	410.86	<0.001	45.08	<0.001
经济权重	6.653	0.001	6.104	0.013	101.15	<0.001	97.94	<0.001	69.30	<0.001

变量	经济权重			经济地理嵌套权重
变量	直接效应	间接效应	总效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应
数字经济	0.604^***(6.65)	0.763^**(2.27)	1.367^***(4.32)	0.770^***(9.32)	0.709^*(1.72)	1.479^***(3.31)
消费率	0.693^***(8.66)	-0.560^**(-1.98)	0.133(0.48)	0.710^***(8.81)	-0.678(-1.31)	0.032(0.06)
抚养负担	0.162(0.73)	-1.933^***(-3.00)	-1.771^**(-2.36)	0.101(0.48)	-6.578^***(-4.34)	-6.477^***(-4.11)
城镇化	1.512^***(16.84)	1.554^***(6.10)	3.066^***(10.93)	1.374^***(15.24)	1.908^***(4.37)	3.282^***(7.26)
社会保障	-0.031^**(-2.10)	-0.036(-0.68)	-0.068(-1.25)	-0.003(-0.23)	-0.279^***(-2.60)	-0.282^***(-2.63)
物流效率	0.014^*(1.81)	0.093(1.46)	0.107^*(1.70)	0.041^**(2.55)	0.418^***(3.47)	0.459^***(3.56)

Digital economy driving household consumption:Mechanism and spatial effects

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模型	F值	P值	门槛值	95%置信区间
模型	F值	P值	门槛值	低	高
单一门槛	31.230	0.046	10.129	10.059	10.133
双重门槛	38.210	0.054	10.468	10.442	10.472

变量	东部	中西部
数字经济	0.810^**(2.47)	1.405^**(2.55)
消费率	0.788^***(4.19)	0.601^***(3.44)
抚养负担	-0.799^**(-2.38)	-0.893^**(-2.09)
城镇化	1.363^***(3.95)	1.646^***(2.88)
社会保障	0.016(0.26)	0.041(0.95)
物流效率	0.250^**(2.35)	0.088^*(1.72)
常数项	8.055^***(13.03)	7.710^***(16.02)
个体效应	是	是
时间效应	是	是
N	99	180
R²	0.854	0.893

变量	更换解释变量	样本缩尾处理
信息服务业	0.100^***(6.85)
数字经济		0.546^*(1.79)
消费率	0.715^***(6.97)	0.874^***(5.32)
抚养负担	-0.660^**(-2.59)	-1.470^***(-4.78)
城镇化	2.113^***(9.57)	2.781^***(7.90)
社会保障	-0.036(-1.08)	0.038(0.93)
物流效率	0.095^**(2.44)	0.143^***(3.22)
常数项	7.752^***(25.43)	7.315^***(17.74)
个体效应	是	是
时间效应	是	是
N	279	225
R²	0.889	0.875

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