PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 12-26.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.002

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Spatiotemporal changes of urban construction land structure and driving mechanism in the Yellow River Basin based on random forest model

GUO Yuanzhi1(), LI Xuhong1,2,*()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2022-06-22 Revised:2022-09-27 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-03-28
  • Contact: LI Xuhong E-mail:guoyz.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn;lixuhong2479@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001203)

Abstract:

Cities are the main spatial carriers for the agglomeration of regional population, industry and other factors, and systematically revealing the evolution of urban construction land structure and its driving mechanism is of great significance for further promoting the implementation of ecological conservation and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River Basin. Based on the urban construction land data of the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2019, the spatiotemporal change characteristics and differentiation patterns of the construction land structure in the basin were analyzed by using the information entropy model, and the formation mechanism of the driving factors was examined by using the random forest model. The results show that: 1) From 2007 to 2019, the area of urban construction land in the Yellow River Basin continued to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 5.34%, but the information entropy of urban construction land structure decreased, and experienced a change process of high-level disorder, relatively stable, and low-level orderly. 2) The growth rate of urban construction land use in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River increased successively, with the annual growth rate reaching 3.91%, 5.06% and 6.22% respectively. The information entropy of urban construction land use structure in the middle reaches of the Yellow River decreased the most, and the decline rates in the upper reaches and lower reaches were similar. 3) All types of construction land in the basin are mainly distributed in provincial capitals and cities in economically developed areas, and there is a clear spatial heterogeneity in the information entropy of urban construction land use structure in the region. The information entropy of urban construction land use structure in provincial capital cities and economically developed cities showed a decreasing trend, while the information entropy of less developed cities gradually increased. 4) The scale of urban land use and the size of urban population have the strongest effect on the change of urban construction land use structure, followed by the intensity of industrial structure upgrading and scale of fiscal expenditure. The role of economic development level and policy support is small, and the intensity of impact of upstream, middle reaches, and downstream influencing factors is heterogeneous. 5) The scale of urban land use, the size of urban population, and the scale of fiscal expenditure showed a positive change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure, the level of economic development and industrial structure upgrading showed a negative change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure, and the policy support showed an inverted U-shaped change relationship with the information entropy of urban construction land use structure.

Key words: urban construction land, information entropy, random forest model, high-quality development, Yellow River Basin