中国城际联系距离衰减的非线性规律——基于人口流动大数据

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Spatial interaction of human mobility is a heated topic for scholars, but little is known about the nonlinear relationship of the influencing factors in the spatial interaction. Using Tencent migration data in 2018 and employing the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model, this study analyzed the nonlinear characteristics of the distance-decay parameter. The results show that: 1) In the annual data benchmark model the distance-decay parameter presents nonlinear characteristics; the partial dependence curve presents two "platform areas" where the distance-decay parameter is close to 0, and two "attenuation areas" where the distance-decay parameter is about 2.8; and the results are still robust using road-based distance or data from other years. 2) There are significant differences between the distance-decay parameters of aviation, railway, and road transportation. The distance-decay pattern during the Spring Festival is basically consistent with the annual benchmark model. We recommend to plan metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations according to the nonlinear characteristics of intercity connection influenced by distances-decay pattern, and optimize the layout of territorial development accordingly.

Key words: migration big data, intercity links, nonlinear, gradient boosting decision tree, distance-decay parameter

CHU Jun, TONG De, GU Hengyu, CAO Zhiqiang, PAN Xiangxiang. Nonlinear characteristics of distance-decay parameter in intercity links: Based on human mobility big data[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 1-11.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 34

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变量名称	含义	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
城际联系	全年城际客运交通联系总和(人次)	379862.6	1547213.0	32.0	55320000.0
城际距离	城际空间距离(km)，基准模型中以城市中心直线距离测度，并补充了基于路网的距离测度	979.9	654.2	17.2	3471.9
省际边界	是否跨越省界(跨越为1，否则为0)，测度省际边界效应	0.8	0.4	0.0	1.0
胡焕庸线	是否跨越胡焕庸线(跨越为1，否则为0)，测度综合地理边界效应	0.2	0.4	0.0	1.0
人口(o/d)	起点或止点城市常住人口(万人)，测度人口规模	689.4	467.1	29.7	3163.1
GDP(o/d)	起点或止点城市GDP(亿元)，测度经济规模	5578.0	6680.0	210.0	31000.0
财政(o/d)	起点或止点城市一般公共预算财政支出(亿元)，测度公共服务水平	922.9	1360.0	27.7	7500.0
科技(o/d)	起点或止点城市科技支出(亿元)，测度公共服务水平	35.6	76.9	1.0	390.0
教育(o/d)	起点或止点城市教育支出(亿元)，测度公共服务水平	140.5	175.1	4.1	960.0
AQI(o/d)	起点或止点城市全年平均空气质量，测度环境品质	70.5	18.4	33.5	114.1
PM_2.5(o/d)	起点或止点城市全年平均PM_2.5，测度环境品质	39.8	12.4	14.1	72.3
产业结构(o/d)	起点或止点城市第二产业比重，测度产业结构	41.9	11.0	4.0	71.3

排序	<90 km	90~735 km	736~1635 km	>1635 km
1	东莞—深圳	廊坊—北京	北京—成都	广州—北京
2	佛山—广州	北京—廊坊	成都—北京	北京—广州
3	广州—佛山	保定—北京	上海—北京	上海—成都
4	深圳—东莞	广州—深圳	北京—上海	深圳—北京
5	苏州—上海	深圳—广州	北京—武汉	北京—深圳
6	上海—苏州	北京—保定	重庆—上海	成都—上海
7	咸阳—西安	天津—北京	武汉—北京	北京—厦门
8	西安—咸阳	北京—天津	上海—重庆	厦门—北京
9	惠州—深圳	嘉兴—杭州	北京—长沙	上海—昆明
10	广州—东莞	杭州—嘉兴	南京—北京	北京—昆明
11	深圳—惠州	渭南—西安	北京—重庆	昆明—上海
12	东莞—广州	西安—渭南	北京—南京	昆明—北京
13	中山—珠海	开封—郑州	重庆—北京	贵阳—北京
14	惠州—东莞	杭州—绍兴	长沙—北京	北京—泉州
15	无锡—苏州	绍兴—杭州	杭州—北京	北京—贵阳
16	苏州—无锡	郑州—开封	广州—武汉	哈尔滨—上海
17	东莞—惠州	成都—资阳	北京—西安	三亚—北京
18	德阳—成都	成都—重庆	上海—深圳	上海—哈尔滨
19	成都—德阳	资阳—成都	北京—杭州	北京—南宁
20	珠海—中山	重庆—成都	武汉—广州	三亚—上海

Nonlinear characteristics of distance-decay parameter in intercity links: Based on human mobility big data

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