1980—2016年黄土高原地区人口和可达性异速标度分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.11.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016 panel data at the town and township level on the Loess Plateau, this study analyzed the population and accessibility scale structure, hierarchical system, and allometric scaling by using rank-size distribution and allometric growth model of the fractal theory. The results show that: 1) Population size was mainly small and medium, and population of 60% of the towns and townships was growing at a positive rate. The distribution of population presented a pattern of "high in the north and south, and low in the middle". Potential accessibility on the Loess Plateau tended to increase over time and the spatial distribution of potential accessibility gradually decreases from southeast to northwest. Population and potential accessibility of valley plains both are the highest. 2) The rank-size distributions of population and accessibility comply with the power-law relation, and both present a log-normal distribution. The distribution of population size changed from equilibrium to polarization, and the distribution of potential accessibility tended to be further balanced. The population rank-size distribution was characterized by dual fractals from 1980 to 2016, while the accessibility rank-size distribution had evolved from dual fractals to single fractals with 2000 as a turning point. Accessibility scale distribution tended to be stable. 3) The characteristics of population-accessibility allometric growth were clear. The 3006 towns and township mainly showed positive allometry, supplemented by negative allometry. The allometric growth types of towns and townships in the gully areas of the Loess Plateau and the valley plains were dominated by positive allometric growth with population growth. The allometric growth types of towns and townships in the hilly-gully areas of the Loess Plateau, sandy and desert areas, and earth-rock mountain areas were dominated by negative allometric growth with population decline. The irrigated regions were dominated by positive allometric growth with population growth and negative allometric growth with population decline. Finally, according to the population and accessibility allotypes and spatial distribution characteristics, some policy recommendations for the development of each region are put forward.

Key words: population scale, accessibility, rank-size, allometric scaling, the Loess Plateau

LV Minjuan, CAO Xiaoshu. Allometric scaling analysis of population and accessibility on the Loess Plateau from 1980 to 2016[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(11): 1884-1897.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Tab.2

Allometric levels of population and accessibility"

异速类型	划分标准	异速级别	特征
正异速	$b < - 3$	人口下降正异速三级	可达性相对增长速度远高于人口相对下降速度
	$- 3 < b < - 2$	人口下降正异速二级	可达性相对增长速度高于人口相对下降速度
	$- 2 < b < - 1$	人口下降正异速一级	可达性相对增长速度较高于人口相对下降速度
负异速	$- 1 < b < 0$	人口下降负异速一级	人口相对下降速度较高于可达性相对增长速度
负异速	$0 < b < 1$	人口增长负异速一级	人口相对增长速度较高于可达性相对增长速度
正异速	$1 < b < 2$	人口增长正异速一级	可达性相对增长速度较高于人口相对增长速度
	$2 < b < 3$	人口增长正异速二级	可达性相对增长速度高于人口相对增长速度
	$3 < b$	人口增长正异速三级	可达性相对增长速度远高于人口相对增长速度

Tab.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Tab.3

Fig.7

Fig.8

Tab.4

Fig.9

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年份	标度区分段	人口				可达性
		无标度区范围	位序—规模			无标度区范围	位序—规模
		无标度区范围	q值	R²值	q值	无标度区范围		R²值
1980	全局	1~2980	0.559	0.77		1~2980	0.672	0.76
	无标度区一	1~897	0.266	0.95		1~757	0.277	0.95
	无标度区二	898~2697	1.011	0.96		758~2724	1.162	0.95
	无效标度区	2698~2980				2725~2980
1990	全局	1~1639	0.560	0.76		1~1639	0.658	0.77
	无标度区一	1~557	0.278	0.95		1~492	0.308	0.96
	无标度区二	558~1480	1.076	0.95		493~1525	1.226	0.95
	无效标度区	1481~1639				1526~1639
2000	全局	1~3000	0.587	0.76		1~3000	0.642	0.81
	无标度区一	1~1064	0.287	0.95		1~897	0.305	0.95
	无标度区二	1097~2697	1.176	0.97		898~2835	1.207	0.96
	无效标度区	2698~3000				2836~3000
2010	全局	1~3006	0.641	0.76		1~3006	0.463	0.90
	无标度区一	1~1164	0.330	0.95		2~2751	0.431	0.93
	无标度区二	1165~2815	1.434	0.95		2~2751	0.431	0.93
	无效标度区	2816~3006
2016	全局	1~3006	0.671	0.73		1~3006	0.424	0.91
	无标度区一	1~1203	0.334	0.95		3~2751	0.395	0.95
	无标度区二	1204~2760	1.553	0.95		3~2751	0.395	0.95
	无效标度区	2761~3006				2752~3006

年份	黄土高原地区	河谷平原区	黄土丘陵沟壑区	黄土高塬沟壑区	农灌区	土石山区	沙地和沙漠区
1980	1.035	1.003	0.908	0.935	0.897	1.018	1.113
1990	0.983	0.984	0.948	0.902	0.895	1.011	0.996
2000	0.917	0.879	0.797	0.811	0.872	0.923	0.678
2010	0.543	0.519	0.400	0.518	0.613	0.534	0.483
2016	0.449	0.462	0.295	0.431	0.493	0.464	0.290

Allometric scaling analysis of population and accessibility on the Loess Plateau from 1980 to 2016

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年份	高速公路	国道	省道	县乡道	铁路
1980	—	35	35	20	30
1990	—	45	45	30	40
2000	90	60	50	35	60
2010	100	80	60	40	90
2016	100	80	60	40	90