中国化石能源燃烧碳排放强度非均衡性及其演变的驱动力分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.09.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Research on the driving forces of the change of CO₂ emissions intensity inequality in China could provide a scientific basis for formulating sound, fair, and efficient regional carbon emission abatement strategies. This study adopted the Theil index to measure the inequality in energy-related CO₂ emissions intensity in China during 2005-2015, and conducted source decomposition focusing on geographical regions, economic sectors, energy types, and explanatory factor decomposition of the inequality. The results show that China's CO₂ emissions intensity gradually decreased from 2005 to 2015, but the provincial gap continued to expand. From a regional perspective, the inequality in CO₂ emissions intensity is mainly found within China's northeastern, eastern, central, and western regions. Besides, the ever-expanding internal differences of CO₂ emissions intensity within the eastern and the western regions increasingly became the main driver of the inequality enhancement. The industrial sector and coal were respectively the major sources of CO₂ emissions intensity inequality in terms of economic sectors and energy sources, which were also the key drivers of the intensity inequality exacerbation. With regard to the determinants, the provincial differences in CO₂ emissions intensity were mainly dominated by the technological development level, followed by the industrial structure and energy structure. Among them, the widening provincial differences in technology level and energy structure enhanced the inequality in CO₂ emissions intensity, and the contribution of technology level was much larger than that of energy structure. The narrowing disparity among provinces in the industrial structure, however, promoted the reduction of the provincial CO₂ emissions intensity inequality in China. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of China's regional emission reduction strategy.

Key words: CO₂ emissions intensity, inequality, Theil index, influencing factors, China

JIANG Wanbei, LIU Weidong, LIU Zhigao, HAN Mengyao. Inequality and driving forces of energy-related CO₂ emissions intensity in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(9): 1425-1435.

Figures/Tables 13

Tab.1

Summary of representative carbon emissions inequality studies"

文献	空间	时段	对象	指标	来源	因素
Wang等^[9]	WIOD 40 经济体	1995—2009年	人均CO₂	Theil	国家;部门	碳强度、产业结构;人均消费
Duro等^[13]	全球92%的CO₂量	1993—2007年	人均CO₂	log-variance	—	富裕程度;产业结构;人口因素;气候
Mussini等^[10]	欧洲国家	1991—2011年	人均CO₂	Gini	OECD/non-OECD	—
Remuzgo等^[19]	IEA所考虑的国家	1990—2010年	人均CO₂	Theil	IEA区域划分	电力生产的碳强度;GDP的电力强度;劳动生产率;就业率
Grunewald等^[20]	90个国家	1971—2008年	人均CO₂	Gini	化石能源种类; 部门	—
Padilla等^[24]	欧盟27国	1990—2009年	人均CO₂	Theil	北/南/东欧	能源碳强度;能源强度;人均GDP
Duro^[23]	117个国家	1971—2007年	人均CO₂	Gini;Theil;CV	IEA区域划分	权重;人均CO₂向量
Ezcurra^[15]	87个国家	1960—1999年	人均CO₂	分布密度函数	—	人均收入;年均温度;贸易开放度
Duro等^[22]	114个国家	1971—1999年	人均CO₂	Theil	8大地理区域	能源碳强度、能源强度、人均GDP
Heil等^[17]	135个国家	1951—2100年	人均CO₂	Gini	4大收入群体	减排政策
Duro等^[4]	116个国家	1971—2009年	CO₂强度	分布密度函数;Theil	9大地理区域; 化石能源种类	能源强度;能源碳强度
Camarero等^[16]	OECD 23个国家	1996—2008年	CO₂强度	俱乐部收敛	—	能源碳强度;能源强度
Chen等^[21]	中国省级数据	1997—2014年	人均CO₂	Gini	化石能源种类; 部门	产业结构;能源结构
Wang等^[14]	中国30个省市	1995—2011年	人均CO₂	CV	—	—
Clarke-Sather等^[18]	中国27个省	1997—2007年	人均CO₂	Gini;Theil;CV	东/中/西部	—
Wang等^[12]	中国341个城市	1992—2013年	人均CO₂	CV;Theil; Atkinson index	—	—
颜艳梅等^[7]	中国29个省市	1995—2012年	CO₂强度	Gini;Theil; 对数离差均值	—	人均GDP;能源结构;产业结构;城市化水平
杨骞等^[26]	中国29个省市	1995—2009年	CO₂强度	Theil;收敛理论	东/中/西/东北	—
孙耀华等^[25]	中国30个省市	2000—2010年	CO₂强度	Theil	东/中/西/东北	—
赵雲泰等^[27]	中国30个省市	1999—2007年	碳强度	Theil	8大经济区	—

Tab.1

Tab.2

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.3

Fig.5

Tab.4

Fig.6

Tab.5

Fig.7

Tab.6

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区域	2005—2006年	2005—2007年	2005—2008年	2005—2009年	2005—2010年	2005—2011年	2005—2012年	2005—2013年	2005—2014年	2005—2015年
区域间	120.0	116.9	83.7	89.4	65.4	53.0	51.0	36.1	37.7	29.8
东北	-1.2	-1.2	-1.6	-0.7	3.9	0.6	-0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3
东部	-55.5	-24.7	-0.5	-3.3	23.6	20.9	20.2	34.5	29.0	31.5
中部	-12.7	-19.6	4.9	5.5	3.7	2.2	6.4	9.9	11.0	7.8
西部	49.4	28.6	13.4	9.1	3.4	23.3	22.8	18.9	22.2	30.6

经济部门	2005—2006年	2005—2007年	2005—2008年	2005—2009年	2005—2010年	2005—2011年	2005—2012年	2005—2013年	2005—2014年	2005—2015年
农林牧渔业	0.3	-1.7	-1.5	-1.0	-2.1	-0.9	-0.3	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2
工业	95.8	104.3	86.6	85.8	90.3	92.4	91.0	94.3	94.3	93.7
建筑业	-0.6	-1.4	-0.2	-0.2	-1.0	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7
交通运输仓储和邮政业	5.6	1.7	3.4	2.7	2.3	2.2	3.2	1.0	0.8	1.0
批发零售业和住宿餐饮业	-0.3	-1.9	6.8	7.5	6.0	4.4	4.5	2.1	2.0	2.5
其他行业	-0.8	-1.0	5.0	5.1	4.5	2.4	2.2	3.8	3.8	3.7

能源种类	2005—2006年	2005—2007年	2005—2008年	2005—2009年	2005—2010年	2005—2011年	2005—2012年	2005—2013年	2005—2014年	2005—2015年
煤	87.8	90.1	90.3	88.8	91.5	88.3	88.4	90.2	90.7	92.8
石油	15.8	13.7	11.3	13.6	11.5	12.8	12.1	9.3	8.4	7.9
天然气	-3.6	-3.8	-1.6	-2.4	-3.0	-1.1	-0.5	0.5	1.0	-0.7

影响因素	2005—2006年	2005—2007年	2005—2008年	2005—2009年	2005—2010年	2005—2011年	2005—2012年	2005—2013年	2005—2014年	2005—2015年
产业结构	-30.2	-24.6	-12.3	-9.4	-14.0	-8.7	-7.5	-6.6	-6.6	-2.7
技术水平	127.2	122.0	104.5	99.3	89.5	97.0	97.0	91.7	93.5	84.5
能源结构	3.1	2.6	7.8	10.1	24.5	11.7	10.5	14.9	13.1	18.2

Inequality and driving forces of energy-related CO₂ emissions intensity in China

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Inequality and driving forces of energy-related CO2 emissions intensity in China

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Inequality and driving forces of energy-related CO₂ emissions intensity in China