后2020时期农户相对贫困测度及机理分析——以重庆市长寿区为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.06.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Absolute poverty will be completely eliminated in China in 2020. However, due to the imbalance between urban and rural development, the differentiation of basic public services between urban and rural areas, and the lack of robust internal motivations in some special groups of people, relative poverty will become a long-lasting problem and a key factor hindering social and economic progress and social stability. Therefore, the study of China's relative poverty will provide a theoretical reference for the establishment of a long-term mechanism to solve the problem of relative poverty in rural China in the post-2020 period. Taking farming households as the research object and 2018 as the time frame of the research, this study systematically analyzed the connotation and characteristics of relative poverty in the post-2020 period and built a measurement and evaluation index system for relative poverty. It also defined the relative poverty line based on a multidimensional perspective and conducted an empirical analysis with Changshou District of Chongqing Municipality as an example. The research generated the following results: 1) The relative poverty index is a useful measure that defines the relative poverty line from a multidimensional perspective of materials, development, ability, and social security. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the relative poverty index is more in line with the actual situation than the single income method in defining the relative poverty line and it can fully meet the needs of reflecting or quantifying actual living conditions of people. 2) Because of the weak support from industry, less opportunities to participate in the cooperative development and skill training of labors, lower level of education, and the fact that more than a third of the relatively poor households are elderly, disabled and seriously ill persons, the relative poverty population are less likely to improve their quality of life, strengthen their capacities, and have access to development. 3) Poverty alleviation policies, economic foundations, social security, and personal conditions are important factors affecting relative poverty. Among them, regional policies are the external causes of relative poverty, economic factors are the key to stimulate the formation of relative poverty, social factors are the basic impetus to prevent the formation of relative poverty, and personal factors are the internal cause of relative poverty.

Key words: relative poverty, mechanism analysis, farming households, measurement, post-2020 period, Chongqing Municipality

LIU Yuanli, LIAO Heping, LI Jing, LI Tao, CAI Jin, HE Tian. Measurement and mechanism analysis of relative poverty of farming households in the post-2020 period:A case study of Changshou District, Chongqing Municipality[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(6): 960-971.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 36

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维度	权重	指标	指标阐释及赋值	主观权重	客观权重	组合权重
物质资源	0.15	衣食无忧	吃好穿好表征:经常=3,有时=2,偶尔=1	0.35	0.36	0.36
		饮用水来源	自来水=4,深井水=3,泉水/河水=2,其他=1	0.31	0.31	0.31
		住房质量	砖混房=3,砖瓦或砖木房=2,土木房=1	0.34	0.33	0.33
经济条件	0.23	产业发展效果	效果好=3,效果一般=2,没有效果/发展失败=1	0.31	0.31	0.31
		家庭人均纯收入	家庭纯收入/家庭人口	0.40	0.41	0.41
		转移性收入占比	政府补贴、亲友补助等收入/总收入	0.29	0.28	0.28
可行能力	0.22	户主受教育程度	本科(大专)=4,高中或中专=3,初中=2,小学以下=1	0.31	0.29	0.30
		劳动力人数	16~60周岁(除学生外)有劳动能力人数	0.35	0.36	0.35
		健康状况	良好=4,慢病/三四级残疾=3,大病=2,一二级残疾/精神病=1	0.34	0.35	0.35
发展机会	0.21	政策性贷款支持	有=2,无=1	0.24	0.24	0.24
		劳动技能培训	未参加=1,培训时间1周以下=2,培训时间1周以上=3	0.26	0.27	0.26
		参加合作社生产经营	未参加=1,参加=2	0.22	0.20	0.21
		劳动力转移就业占比	劳动力转移就业人口/劳动力总人口	0.28	0.29	0.29
社会保障	0.19	看病条件	非常方便=3,方便=2,不方便=1	0.39	0.40	0.39
		医疗保险及救助	合作医疗=4,大病保险=3,大病或慢性病救助=2,其他保险=1	0.26	0.25	0.26
		教育条件	非常方便=3,方便=2,不方便=1	0.33	0.35	0.35

变量		总体/户	脱贫户		非贫困户
变量		总体/户	户数	占比/%	户数	占比/%
农户属性		1785	861	48.24	924	51.76
性别	男	1452	700	48.21	752	51.79
	女	333	161	48.35	172	51.65
年龄	≤18岁	11	2	18.18	9	81.82
	19~30岁	31	11	35.48	20	64.52
	31~50岁	306	171	55.88	135	44.12
	51~60岁	329	183	55.62	146	44.38
	≥61岁	1108	494	44.58	614	55.42
家庭人均年纯收入	≤3500元	1	0	0	1	100.00
	3501~5000元	451	167	37.03	284	62.97
	5001~10000元	620	251	40.48	369	59.52
	≥10000元	713	443	62.13	270	37.87
文化程度	小学及以下	1422	675	47.47	747	52.53
	初中	324	168	51.85	156	48.15
	高中	33	13	39.39	20	60.61
	大专及以上	6	5	83.33	1	16.67
务工人数	0人	1060	454	42.83	606	57.17
	1人	496	287	57.86	209	42.14
	2人	185	106	57.30	79	42.70
	≥3人	44	14	31.82	30	68.18

维度	最大值	上四分位	中位数	下四分位	最小值	平均值	标准差	变异系数
物质资源	0.795	0.179	0.103	0	0	0.128	0.151	1.178
经济条件	1.000	0.912	0.718	0.635	0	0.727	0.198	0.272
可行能力	0.933	0.627	0.514	0.443	0.175	0.529	0.126	0.239
发展机会	1.000	0.819	0.732	0.606	0.130	0.707	0.148	0.209
社会保障	0.828	0.172	0.086	0.086	0	0.152	0.147	0.970
相对贫困指数	0.774	0.551	0.482	0.419	0.232	0.483	0.092	0.190

自变量	标准系数	t值	Sig.	VIF
平均高程(X₁)	-0.039	-0.612	0.542	1.054
人均耕地面积(X₂)	-0.078	-1.242	0.216	1.057
交通条件(X₃)	-0.234^***	-3.513	0.001	1.182
农户类型(X₄)	0.117^*	1.716	0.088	1.224
无劳动力占比(X₅)	0.142^**	2.086	0.038	1.231
生产性收入(X₆)	-0.210^***	-3.185	0.002	1.154
务工性收入(X₇)	-0.283^***	-4.404	0	1.095
医疗负担(X₈)	0.160^**	2.286	0.023	1.301

Measurement and mechanism analysis of relative poverty of farming households in the post-2020 period:A case study of Changshou District, Chongqing Municipality

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