地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.016

Abstract

Abstract:

Geopolitical risk is one of the five categories of risk identified in the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report, with significant effects on the global and regional peace, stability, and development. How to identify, measure, forecast, and manage the impact that geopolitical risks on human well-being are taken into consideration by researchers worldwide. Global scientific researchers have not yet reached a consensus on the definition of geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risk research has made notable progress in the fields of 1) analyzing the causal factors of geopolitical risks; 2) identifying the impact of geopolitical risks; and 3) measuring and mapping geopolitical risks. Considering the fact that challenges come from the spatiotemporal differences and variability of geopolitical risk factors, the complexity of the various risk causing factors on interaction and response mechanisms, and the unpredictability and uncertainty of geopolitical risks, geopolitical risk research has made further progress on the following frontier issues: 1) identification of geopolitical risk causing factors; 2) occurrence mechanism of geopolitical risks; and 3) monitoring and simulation of geopolitical risks. Future directions of geopolitical risk research in China include: 1) research on national geo-security with spatial differentiation, especially forthesurrounding areas of China; 2) quantitative reconstruction and numerical simulation of the geopolitical risks across multiple scales and multiple geo-factors; 3) new computation ways supporting the interaction of other scientific disciplines and the use of big data, and new platform integrating early warning of geopolitical risks; 4) focusing on scientific issues and promoting the ability of theoretical and practical research output in dealing with geopolitical issues.

Key words: geopolitics, geo-factors, risks, assessment and forecast of geopolitical risks, progress and prospect

XIONG Chenran, WANG Limao, QU Qiushi, XIANG Ning, WANG Bo. Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(4): 695-706.

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学者	典型界定	侧重点
Middeldorp等^[24]	是指国家间或国际组织间的冲突事件对某一国家或区域内的经济具有破坏性影响的状况	强调冲突性及影响
Burrows等^[25]	是指对人类发展福祉具有潜在破坏性的政治经济变动趋势	不明确
Caldara等^[4]	是指战争、恐怖主义行为、国家间冲突等事件对国际关系正常秩序与和平进程的影响	强调冲突性及影响
Neacsu^[26]	是指因国家间冲突和紧张关系、战争、资源争端、恐怖主义行为等地缘政治因素影响一个国家或地区的社会经济活动和行为的事件	强调冲突性及影响
刘文革等^[27]	是指国家或地区因政治动荡、社会动乱、军事冲突、恐怖主义活动等突发性事件,或者因政府治理效率低下、腐败等非突发性政治属性问题而产生的对政治、经济、社会等带来不可估量损失的风险	强调冲突性与和平性及影响

年份	石油生产量 /(百万桶/d)	生产量-国内消费量/(百万桶/d)	石油收入 /10亿美元	政府来自石油的收入占GDP比重/%
2010	4.42	2.55	72.2	—
2011	4.27	2.57	114.8	10.8
2012	3.81	1.90	101.5	6.6
2013	3.60	1.56	61.9	6.5
2014	3.70	1.68	53.7	5.7
2015	3.90	1.95	18.0	3.9

年份/时段	国家	遭毁坏的文化遗产地(部分)	地缘政治事件
2001年	阿富汗	比尤达(Buda) 2处历史纪念碑(1500 a历史)	塔利班武装袭击
2003年	伊拉克	多处古代考古遗址	美国军事入侵
2005年	亚美尼亚	中世纪亚美尼亚公墓、纳西文墓碑	阿塞拜疆-亚美尼亚冲突
2011年	巴林	阿米尔·穆罕默德清真寺(400 a历史)	阿拉伯之春(反政府武装)
2013—2015年	利比亚	古生代遗址	阿拉伯之春(内战)、ISIS袭击
2014—2015年	伊拉克	尼姆鲁德(Nimrud)和哈特拉(Hatra)古代考古遗址、巴什塔皮亚(Bash Tapia)中世纪城堡、摩苏尔(Mosul)文物博物馆等	ISIS袭击
2014年	埃及	伊斯兰艺术博物馆	恐怖袭击
2015—2018年	叙利亚	阿勒颇(Aleppo)历史纪念中心、帕尔米拉(Palmyra)古城遗址、阿因达拉(Ain Dara)神庙	ISIS袭击、内战、土耳其入侵

Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research

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