PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 461-473.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.011
• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2019-03-25
Revised:
2019-08-20
Online:
2020-03-28
Published:
2020-05-28
Contact:
SHI Xingmin
E-mail:realsimon@163.com
Supported by:
SONG Zhen, SHI Xingmin. Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.
Tab.1
Definition and descriptive statistics of selected variables"
变量名称 | 定义 | 均值 | 标准差 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
性别 | 1=女;2=男 | 1.58 | 0.49 | |
年龄 | 1=30岁以下;2=30~40岁;3=40~50岁;4=50~60岁;5=60~70岁;6=70岁以上 | 3.51 | 1.52 | |
文化程度 | 1=小学及以下;2=初中;3=高中;4=大专及以上 | 1.70 | 1.05 | |
本地居住时间 | 1=5 a以内;2=5~10 a;3=10~20 a;4=20~30 a;5=30 a以上 | 4.42 | 1.10 | |
家庭农业收入 | 1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上 | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
家庭非农业收入 | 1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上 | 1.91 | 1.14 | |
村到乡镇的距离 | 1=0~5 km;2=5~10 km;3=10~15 km;4=15~20 km;5=20 km以上 | 1.53 | 0.73 | |
气候变化 趋势感知 | 夏季平均气温变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 3.75 | 0.77 |
冬季平均气温变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 3.58 | 0.85 | |
年平均降水量变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 2.02 | 0.91 | |
旱灾变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 4.06 | 0.82 | |
气候变化 影响感知 | 作物播种时间 | 1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后 | 1.85 | 0.63 |
作物收获时间 | 1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后 | 1.94 | 0.64 | |
作物产量 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 1.87 | 0.94 | |
病虫害 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 4.05 | 0.91 | |
极端气候事件频发 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.63 | 0.48 | |
作物营养成分变化 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.57 | 0.50 | |
技术性行为 | 增加农药使用量 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.72 | 0.45 |
增加灌溉次数 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.48 | 0.50 | |
增加地膜覆盖面积 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.62 | 0.49 | |
使用保墒技术 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.84 | 0.37 | |
更换作物品种 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.41 | 0.49 | |
改变种植时间 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.33 | 0.47 | |
改变收获时间 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.32 | 0.47 | |
改变种植结构 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.52 | 0.50 | |
经济性行为 | 增加非农收入 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
外出打工 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.60 | 0.49 | |
购买保险 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.15 | 0.35 | |
迁移性行为 | 迁移外地 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
Tab.2
Multivariate analysis of variance of the impacts of farmers’ attributes on adaptive behaviors"
农户属性 | 技术性行为 | 经济性行为 | 迁移性行为 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F值 | P值 | F值 | P值 | F值 | P值 | |||
性别 | 1.917 | 0.167 | 0.635 | 0.426 | 5.374 | 0.021 | ||
年龄 | 3.707 | 0.055 | 13.095 | <0.001 | 3.345 | 0.068 | ||
文化程度 | 3.661 | 0.056 | 0.006 | 0.939 | 0.022 | 0.883 | ||
本地居住时间 | 0.273 | 0.602 | 0.064 | 0.800 | 98.465 | <0.001 | ||
家庭农业收入 | 4.234 | 0.040 | 2.229 | 0.136 | 0.864 | 0.353 | ||
家庭非农业收入 | 0.529 | 0.467 | 75.777 | <0.001 | 0.317 | 0.574 | ||
村到乡镇的距离 | 1.393 | 0.238 | 0.015 | 0.902 | 0.187 | 0.665 |
Tab.3
Path coefficients of the impacts of farmers' attributes and climate change perceptions on adaptive behaviors"
变量 | 性别 | 年龄 | 文化 程度 | 本地居住时间 | 家庭农业 收入 | 家庭非 农业收入 | 村到乡镇 的距离 | 气候变化 趋势感知 | 气候变化 影响感知 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
技术性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.041 | -0.091* | 0.067 | 0.025 | 0.071* | 0.028 | 0.053 | 0.087* | -0.013 | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.006 | 0.009* | 0.007* | -0.005 | 0.003 | -0.003 | -0.015* | — | — | |
m2 | <0.001 | <0.001 | -0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.002 | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.047 | -0.082* | 0.074* | 0.020 | 0.074* | 0.025 | 0.038* | 0.087* | -0.013 | |
z2 | <0.001 | -0.091 | 0.066 | 0.025 | 0.071* | 0.028 | 0.055 | 0.087* | -0.013 | ||
经济性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.021 | -0.151* | -0.005 | 0.012 | -0.052 | 0.293* | <0.001 | 0.053 | -0.040 | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.004 | -0.003 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.009 | — | — | |
m2 | 0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | 0.001 | -0.001 | <0.001 | 0.005 | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.024 | -0.145* | -0.001 | 0.009 | -0.050 | 0.291* | -0.009 | 0.053 | -0.040 | |
z2 | 0.022 | -0.152* | -0.007 | 0.013 | -0.053 | 0.293* | 0.005 | 0.053 | -0.040 | ||
迁移性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.069* | 0.071 | 0.005 | -0.369* | 0.033 | -0.017 | -0.015 | 0.051 | -0.074* | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.004 | -0.003 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.009 | — | — | |
m2 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | 0.001 | -0.003 | <0.001 | 0.009* | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.072* | 0.077 | 0.009 | -0.372* | 0.035 | -0.019 | -0.024 | 0.051 | -0.074* | |
z2 | 0.071* | 0.069 | 0.002 | -0.368* | 0.030 | -0.017 | -0.006* | 0.051 | -0.074* | ||
气候变化趋势感知 | 直接影响 | 0.065 | 0.109* | 0.084* | -0.052 | 0.034 | -0.033 | -0.171* | — | — | |
气候变化影响感知 | 直接影响 | -0.027 | 0.029 | 0.046 | -0.013 | 0.034 | 0.001 | -0.126* | — | — |
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