基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Flood disasters cause both direct and indirect economic losses to industrial systems, and indirect economic losses may be much higher than direct economic losses. Studying indirect economic losses is of great significance for disaster risk reduction. Based on the input-output model, this study used the direct economic loss data of flood disasters in Hubei Province in 2016 to evaluate indirect economic losses under different flood water depth, from the perspective of sectorial interconnectedness. The results show that: 1) With the increase of flood water depth, direct economic losses and indirect economic losses increase accordingly. 2) For most industrial sectors, indirect economic losses caused by industrial interconnectedness are higher than direct economic losses. However, when flood water depth is shallow, some industrial sectors with more intensive fixed assets are more affected by flood disasters, resulting in higher direct economic losses. 3) The total indirect economic losses show a nonlinear relationship with the total direct economic losses, but with the same trend. When the flood water depth is greater than 2.093 m, indirect economic losses are about 1.15 times of direct economic losses.

Key words: flood disaster, indirect economic losses, flood water depth, input-output model, Hubei Province

NING Siyu, HUANG Jing, WANG Zhiqiang, WANG Huimin. Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model: A case study of Hubei Province[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 420-432.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 32

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		中间需求				最终需求	总需求
		部门1	部门2	…	部门n	最终需求	总需求
中间投入	部门1	Q₁₁	Q₁₂	…	Q₁_n	Y₁	Q₁
	部门2	Q₂₁	Q₂₂	…	Q₂_n	Y₂	Q₂
	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
	部门n	Q_n₁	Q_n₂	…	Q_nn	Y_n	Q_n
最终产值	劳动报酬	V₁	V₂	…	V_n
	社会纯收入	M₁	M₂	…	M_n
	折旧	D₁	D₂	…	D_n
	小计	Z₁	Z₂	…	Z_n
总投入		Q₁	Q₂	…	Q_n

序号	部门	固定资产	序号	部门	固定资产
1	农业	1086.49	11	房地产业	6063.74
2	采矿业	329.40	12	租赁服务业	806.37
3	制造业	10522.40	13	科学研究和技术服务业	151.87
4	能源供应业	934.69	14	公共设施管理业	3735.20
5	建筑业	475.46	15	其他服务业	139.16
6	交通运输业	2794.23	16	教育	366.66
7	信息业	150.75	17	卫生和社会工作	269.46
8	批发和零售业	725.27	18	文化、体育和娱乐业	323.91
9	住宿和餐饮业	286.04	19	社会保障	309.77
10	金融业	33.00

产业类型	淹没水深
产业类型	0~0.5 m	0.5~1 m	1~2 m	2~3 m	>3 m
农业相关	13	24	55	69	81
工业相关	5	10	15	30	40
建筑业相关	3	5	7	10	20
商业相关	5	10	25	40	50
服务业相关	5	10	15	25	35
家庭财产相关	3	8	30	50	70
房地产业相关	5	15	40	60	80

Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model: A case study of Hubei Province

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