中间产品贸易网络结构及其演化的影响因素探究——基于贸易成本视角

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.015

Abstract

Abstract:

With the expansion and continuous deepening of globalization, more countries are involved in the trend. In the meantime, the segregation of production has entered the stage of intra-product specialization. Trade of intermediate goods, as an embodiment of intra-product specialization, is taking up a growing proportion of global trade. In this study, we examined the structure and change of the intermediate goods trade network of textile industry, automobile industry, and electronic industry as typical examples of labor-intensive industry, traditional globalized industry, and tech-intensive industry, respectively. Then, we took China's exportation network as an example and looked into the factors that influenced its change. The results are as follows: 1) Structures of the three networks of difference industries show great heterogeneity—the network of electronics is more condensed, while the other two are looser. 2) During 1998-2017, China had been playing an increasingly more significant role in the global intermediate goods trade network. 3) Geographic distance significantly influences trade preference, yet only in the textile industry does the distance attenuation effect stand; Lower communication cost significantly increases trade preference and promotion of Chinese culture also increases trade preference; Institution of destination countries significantly influences trade preference—stronger voice and accountability of the state increases trade preference, while higher institutional quality repulses trade preference. Labor cost also affects trade preference significantly.

Key words: intermediate goods, trade network, cost of trade

MA Jiahui,HE Canfei. Structure and change of international trade network of intermediate goods: From the perspective of trade costs[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(10): 1607-1620.

Figures/Tables 10

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排序	1998年		2007年		2016年
排序	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口
1	美国	日本	美国	日本	美国	韩国
2	日本	韩国	日本	韩国	韩国	马来西亚
3	新加坡	美国	韩国	菲律宾	墨西哥	日本
4	韩国	新加坡	新加坡	马来西亚	日本	美国
5	德国	德国	德国	美国	新加坡	菲律宾
6	马来西亚	马来西亚	墨西哥	新加坡	德国	新加坡
7	法国	芬兰	马来西亚	德国	马来西亚	泰国
8	英国	英国	英国	泰国	印度	越南
9	加拿大	法国	西班牙	哥斯达黎加	越南	德国
10	墨西哥	瑞典	泰国	法国	泰国	墨西哥

解释维度		变量名称	变量描述	数据来源
交通运输成本	TransCost	contig, s_dist	目的地与中国是否接壤,目的地国与中国最大城市间的地理距离	CEPII
沟通成本	CommCost	comlang_off	使用相同的官方语言	CEPII
		kzpp	人均孔子学院数量	孔子学院官方网站整理
制度壁垒成本	InstCost	vad, pvd, rqd	话语权和可靠性,政治稳定性与无暴乱,恐怖主义管制质量	全球治理指数 World Bank
劳动力成本	LaborCost	s_income	人均国民收入	World Bank
		s_laborratio	15~64岁劳动力占比	World Bank
控制变量	GDP	s_gdp	GDP	World Bank
	Population	s_popu	总人口	World Bank

变量	RTP_ij	contig	s_dist	comlang_off	kzpp	s_income	s_laborratio	vad	pvd	rqd	s_gdp	s_popu
RTP_ij	1.000
contig	0.231	1.000
s_dist	-0.105	-0.418	1.000
comlang_off	0.183	0.262	-0.262	1.000
kzpp	-0.076	-0.017	-0.067	-0.028	1.000
s_income	-0.143	-0.026	-0.300	0.294	0.132	1.000
s_laborratio	-0.056	0.133	-0.377	0.233	0.173	0.624	1.000
vad	-0.239	-0.217	0.100	-0.031	0.227	0.427	0.295	1.000
pvd	-0.283	-0.111	-0.091	0.157	0.226	0.595	0.429	0.662	1.000
rqd	-0.202	-0.126	-0.176	0.237	0.185	0.705	0.508	0.768	0.699	1.000
s_gdp	0.149	0.083	-0.059	-0.030	-0.007	0.214	0.127	0.179	0.026	0.172	1.000
s_popu	0.168	0.347	-0.133	-0.046	-0.068	-0.079	-0.008	0.009	-0.218	-0.091	0.531	1.000

维度	变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
TransCost	contig	0.251^***	0.367^***
	s_dist	0.029	-0.009
CommCost	comlang_off	0.393^***		0.519^***
	kzpp	0.030^***		0.023^***
LaborCost	s_income	0.009			0.004
	s_laborratio	0.149^***			0.170^***
InstCost_i	vad	0.048^***
	pvd	-0.027^***				0.184^***
	rqd	-0.118^***				0.076^***
	s_gdp	0.051^***	0.014^**	0.062^***	-0.005	0.006
	s_popu	0.094^***	0.097^***	0.166^***	0.102^***	0.052^**
	常数	-0.207^***	-0.216^***	-0.185^***	-0.164^***	1.532^***
	观测值	8698	10844	10776	8796	10781
	N	648	700	696	657	695

维度	变量	模型6	模型7	模型8	模型9	模型10
TransCost	contig	0.348^***	0.421^***
	s_dist	0.101^***	0.063^*
CommCost	comlang_off	0.319^*		0.318
	kzpp	0.040^***		0.025^***
LaborCost	s_income	0.015			0.012
	s_laborratio	0.119^***			0.135^***
InstCost_i	vad	0.023
	pvd	-0.038^**				0.183^***
	rqd	-0.103^***				0.067^***
	s_gdp	0.055^***	0.000	0.062^***	-0.015	0.007
	s_popu	0.052	0.085^***	0.114^***	0.082^***	0.055
	常数	-0.016	-0.053^*	-0.014	-0.003	1.527^***
	观测值	2225	2787	2770	2242	2787
	N	167	178	177	168	178

Structure and change of international trade network of intermediate goods: From the perspective of trade costs

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维度	变量	模型11	模型12	模型13	模型14	模型15
TransCost	contig	0.102	0.323^***
	s_dist	-0.095^***	-0.127^***
CommCost	comlang_off	0.414^**		0.673^***
	kzpp	0.011		0.021^***
LaborCost	s_income	0.018			-0.005
	s_laborratio	0.143^***			0.175^***
InstCost_i	vad	0.041
	pvd	-0.043^*				0.190^***
	rqd	-0.131^***				0.109^***
	s_gdp	0.087^***	0.057^***	0.096^***	0.027	0.006
	s_popu	0.094^**	0.029	0.164^***	0.084^**	0.058
	常数	-0.276^***	-0.318^***	-0.290^***	-0.274^***	1.530^***
	观测值	2061	2502	2485	2078	2503
	N	159	170	169	160	170

维度	变量	模型16	模型17	模型18	模型19	模型20
TransCost	contig	0.345^***	0.422^***
	s_dist	0.101^***	0.064^*
CommCost	comlang_off	0.330^*		0.318
	kzpp	0.033^***		0.025^***
LaborCost	s_income	0.012			0.013
	s_laborratio	0.110^***			0.135^***
InstCost_i	vad	0.020
	pvd	-0.036^**				0.179^***
	rqd	-0.104^***				0.064^***
	s_gdp	0.057^***	0.000	0.062^***	-0.015	0.007
	s_popu	0.048	0.085^***	0.114^***	0.082^***	0.050
	常数	-0.006	-0.052^*	-0.014	-0.000	1.541^***
	观测值	2194	2778	2761	2241	2714
	N	161	178	177	167	173

	变量	缩尾2.5%				缩尾5%
	变量	总产业	电子	纺织	运输	总产业	电子	纺织	运输
TransCost	contig	0.249^***	0.345^***	0.105	0.341^***	0.242^***	0.336^***	0.094	0.333^***
	s_dist	0.030^*	0.102^***	-0.094^***	0.102^***	0.030^*	0.101^***	-0.092^***	0.102^***
CommCost	comlang_off	0.374^***	0.292^*	0.404^**	0.302^*	0.360^***	0.279	0.394^**	0.289^*
	kzpp	0.029^***	0.037^***	0.011	0.032^***	0.028^***	0.035^***	0.011	0.031^***
LaborCost	s_income	0.015	0.026	0.022	0.020	0.017	0.029	0.024	0.022
	s_laborratio	0.148^***	0.115^***	0.140^***	0.110^***	0.146^***	0.111^***	0.137^***	0.109^***
InstCost_i	vad	0.051^***	0.026	0.046	0.024	0.050^***	0.024	0.045	0.023
	pvd	-0.029^***	-0.040^***	-0.047^**	-0.037^**	-0.029^***	-0.040^***	-0.047^**	-0.037^***
	rqd	-0.119^***	-0.104^***	-0.133^***	-0.105^***	-0.119^***	-0.103^***	-0.132^***	-0.107^***
	s_gdp	0.050^***	0.053^***	0.087^***	0.055^***	0.050^***	0.053^***	0.086^***	0.056^***
	s_popu	0.096^***	0.054	0.094^**	0.050	0.096^***	0.055	0.094^**	0.050
	常数	-0.212^***	-0.019	-0.285^***	-0.012	-0.211^***	-0.015	-0.283^***	-0.012
	观测值	8698	2225	2061	2194	8698	2225	2061	2194
	N	648	167	159	161	648	167	159	161

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