粤港澳大湾区背景下的珠三角城市群产业—人口—空间交互影响机理

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.12.007

Abstract

Abstract:

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with economic geographical advantages is deemed to be the growth point that captivated the world for its impetus to the global economy. This article focuses on the nine main cities of the Pearl River Delta, analyzing the mutual influences among industry-population-space during the rapid development process of this urban agglomeration by constructing a vector auto regressive model and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that: The absorption effect for population in the development of industry in the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta faded in the late stage. The acceleration that industry benefitted from population aggregation weakened in the middle and late periods. The spatial expansion effects on population aggregation were limited and have become negative in the late period. It concludes that in general a short-term mutual promoting development mechanism between industry-population-space was formed, but a long-term mechanism is yet to be developed. In order to promote the development of the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta should attract highly-qualified workforce on the basis of industrial upgrading, plan spatial growth according to the population aggregation, and construct a multilevel synergistic industrial space with complementary products and services. With these measures, the overall aims are to strengthen the synergistic development among industry, population, and space and promote the development of the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao.

Key words: urban agglomeration, industry-population-space, vector auto regressive (VAR) model, mutual influence, Pearl River Delta, Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Jin LIU, Yinsheng TIAN. Mutual influencing mechanism of industry-population-space in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in the context of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(12): 1653-1662.

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References 19

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序列	检验形式(C, T, L)	ADF值	10%	5%	1%	P值	检验结果
FNCY	(C, T, 0)	-0.8153	-2.7133	-3.0655	-3.9203	0.7871	非平稳
CZRK	(C, T, 0)	-0.1444	-2.7133	-3.0655	-3.9203	0.9281	非平稳
JCMJ	(C, T, 0)	-1.3951	-2.7133	-3.0655	-3.9203	0.5581	非平稳
lnFNCY	(C, 0, 0)	-3.0448	-2.7316	-3.0810	-3.9591	0.0533	平稳
lnCZRK	(C, 0, 0)	-2.7496	-2.7316	-3.0810	-3.9591	0.0891	平稳
lnJCMJ	(C, 0, 0)	-3.8883	-2.7316	-3.0810	-3.9591	0.0114	平稳

Lag(滞后阶数)	logL	LR	FPE	AIC	SC	HQ
0	68.06314	NA	3.43e-08	-8.675085	-8.533475	-8.676593
1	123.8430	81.81054^*	6.97e-11	-14.91241	-14.34597	-14.91844
2	137.9358	15.03224	4.30e-11^*	-15.59144^*	-14.60017^*	-15.60200^*

原假设	特征根	Trace(特征根迹检验)			Max(最大特征值检验)
原假设	特征根	统计量	5%临界值	P值	统计量	5%临界值	P值
无特征根^*	0.7152	45.9541	29.7970	0.0003	18.8427	21.1316	0.1015
最多1个特征根^*	0.6243	27.1113	15.4947	0.0006	14.6865	14.2646	0.0429
最多2个特征根	0.5632	12.4247	3.8414	0.0004	12.4247	3.8414	0.0004

原假设	F统计量	显著水平
lnFNCY不是lnCZRK的Granger原因	8.5244	0.0069
lnCZRK不是lnFNCY的Granger原因	1.4405	0.2820
lnJCMJ不是lnCZRK的Granger原因	3.6568	0.0443
lnCZRK不是lnJCMJ的Granger原因	1.1543	0.3539
lnJCMJ不是lnFNCY的Granger原因	1.9735	0.1895
lnFNCY不是lnJCMJ的Granger原因	4.1989	0.0474

变量序列	lnCZRK	lnFNCY	lnJCMJ
lnCZRK(-1)	0.952082	0.530069	0.210302
lnCZRK(-1)	(0.23502)	(0.53042)	(0.15275)
lnCZRK(-2)	-0.608563	-1.307026	-0.190160
lnCZRK(-2)	(0.23300)	(0.52587)	(0.15144)
lnFNCY(-1)	-0.127860	0.587268	0.122371
lnFNCY(-1)	(0.11624)	(0.26235)	(0.07555)
lnFNCY(-2)	0.242163	-0.122154	0.044644
lnFNCY(-2)	(0.10134)	(0.22871)	(0.06587)
lnJCMJ(-1)	0.328441	1.150933	0.460311
lnJCMJ(-1)	(0.36196)	(0.81691)	(0.23526)
lnJCMJ(-2)	-0.306956	0.922405	-0.042890
lnJCMJ(-2)	(0.38349)	(0.86551)	(0.24925)
常数项C	4.279901	-4.912637	2.973355
常数项C	(1.74620)	(3.94102)	(1.13495)
R-squared	0.990718	0.998204	0.998442

Mutual influencing mechanism of industry-population-space in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in the context of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development

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