基于降水条件的城镇化与植被覆盖协调发展研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.10.005

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage, this study used the economic development and MODIS-NDVI data of 144 counties in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 and the threshold regression model to analyze the influence of urbanization on vegetation coverage under different precipitation conditions. Precipitation was taken as the threshold variable that exerts the most significant impact on vegetation coverage. The results show that: (1) Along with the advancement of urbanization, vegetation covers are damaged, but precipitation during the process can play an important role in adjusting the relationship positively and promote the joint development of urbanization and the vegetation coverage. (2) The coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage depends not only on precipitation, but also on local ecological construction, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and so on. The implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on the Loess Plateau can accelerate the restoration of the vegetation cover, improve the ecological carrying capacity of the regional environment, and effectively alleviate the negative impact of urbanization development on vegetation coverage. (3) The increase of the proportion of the secondary industry in economic development poses a serious threat to the vegetation, which may halt the coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage, especially in areas with low annual rainfall.

Key words: precipitation, urbanization, vegetation coverage, NDVI, threshold effect, middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin

Xiaojie WEN, Shunbo YAO, Minjuan ZHAO. Coordinating the development of urbanization and vegetation coverage based on precipitation[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(10): 1352-1361.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 39

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变量类型	变量	变量名称	变量说明	均值	标准差	样本个数
被解释变量	NDVI	归一化植被指数	数据提取	0.674	0.188	612
核心解释变量	LU	城镇化率	建设用地增速/%	16.388	24.341	590
门槛变量	RF	年均降水量	数据提取	471.800	132.922	612
控制变量	POLICY	退耕还林政策	虚拟变量;实施=1;未实施=0	-	-	612
	IS	产业结构	第二产业比重/%	0.401	0.235	511
	PFA	人均固定资产投资	人均基础建设投资完成额/(万元/人)	1.302	2.200	512
	PGDP	人均生产总值	人均GDP/(万元/人)	1.381	2.042	511
	PQ	人口素质	普通中学在校人数/人	20830	14367	517

NDVI	相关系数	标准误	z值	P值	95%置信区间
LU	-0.020	0.111	5.06^***	0.000	[0.344, 0.780]
RF×LU	0.562	0.005	-4.20^***	0.000	[-0.030, -0.011]
常数项	0.333	0.104	3.20^***	0.001	[0.129, 0.537]

门槛变量	门槛模型	F值	P值		临界值
门槛变量	门槛模型	F值	P值	1%	5%	10%
RF	单一门槛	28.505^***	0.000	9.284	5.163	4.255
	双重门槛	104.748^***	0.000	-30.508	-37.246	-41.425
	三重门槛	0.000^**	0.050	0.000	0.000	0.000

门槛模型	门槛估计值	95%置信区间
单一门槛模型	496.530	[483.532, 525.545]
双重门槛模型
第一门槛值	347.340	[342.600, 347.340 ]
第二门槛值	199.833	[199.833, 199.833 ]
三重门槛模型	262.093	[258.506, 265.680 ]

lnNDVI	系数	标准误	t值	P值	95%置信区间
POLICY	0.084	0.025	3.34^***	0.001	[0.035, 0.134]
lnIS	-0.061	0.018	-3.35^***	0.001	[-0.097, -0.025]
lnPFA	-0.004	0.010	-0.38	0.707	[-0.023, 0.016]
lnPGDP	0.071	0.017	4.19^***	0.000	[-0.038, 0.105]
lnPQ	-0.058	0.011	-5.32^***	0.000	[-0.079, -0.036]
lnLU₁(RF≤199.833)	-0.019	0.021	-0.90	0.368	[-0.060, 0.022]
lnLU₂(199.833<RF≤347.340)	-0.096	0.014	-7.06^***	0.000	[-0.123, -0.069]
lnLU₃(RF>347.340)	0.033	0.009	3.65^***	0.000	[0.015, 0.050]
常数项	-0.010	0.106	-0.09	0.925	[-0.217, -0.197]

Coordinating the development of urbanization and vegetation coverage based on precipitation

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