京津冀地区台风危险性评估——基于Gumbel分布的分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.07.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Continuous rainstorm caused by typhoons is one of the major meteorological disasters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study focused on the hazard assessment of typhoons, identified the high hazard areas,and provided references for the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of typhoons in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on the typhoons that affected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1974 to 2015, spatial variations of precipitation and wind speed are examined using 42 years of data from 148 meteorological stations, and the spatial distribution patterns are depicted by ArcGIS. Gumbel distribution is used to calculate the values of meteorological parameters at the stations under different return periods (RP 5 a, 10 a, 30 a, 50 a). The results show that the maximum daily precipitation is 190.62 mm, the maximum cumulative precipitation is 253.04 mm, and the maximum wind speed is 16.81 m/s (RP=50 a). Southeastern Beijing, northern Tianjin, southeastern coast of Hebei Province, and the Taihang Mountains are the high hazard areas.

Key words: typhoon, hazard assessment, hazard, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Qian LI, Haiyang YU, Ting LI, Shuang LONG, Wei SHAO, Ying WANG, Yingjun XU. Hazard assessment of typhoons affecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Gumbel distribution[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(7): 933-945.

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Hazard assessment of typhoons affecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Gumbel distribution

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