吉林省人口老龄化时空分异特征及成因

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.03.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Rapid population aging has a broad and profound impact on the sustainable development of China's economy, and the country has implemented some policies and measures to tackle the problem of rapid population aging. Using ArcGIS 10.1, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin Province by selecting the coefficient of aged population as the indicator of aging population. Data from the fourth, fifth, and sixth population census of Jilin Province were analyzed by using quantitative methods such as population gravity model, spatial autocorrelation, semi-variant function, and multiple linear regression. The results indicate that: (1) The difference of population aging in the counties and cities of Jilin Province is significant, and the progress is accelerating. The barycenter of population aging in had been moving from northwest to southeast of the province, but at a decreasing speed; (2) Through global spatial autocorrelation analysis, the population aging of Jilin Province presents a positive and enhancing spatial autocorrelation characteristics and trend; (3) Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that the high-value areas of population aging cluster in the east of the province and low-value areas cluster in the west; (4) The spatiotemporal differentiation of aging in Jilin Province was mainly caused by structural factors, while random factors contributed less to the overall variation. In the other words, the spatial heterogeneity caused by spatial autocorrelation is more intense than that caused by random factors in the population aging. The eastern-western difference is the primary contributor to the spatial differentiation of population aging. (5) The main structural factors influencing population aging in the province were birth rate, per capita GDP, migration rate, and urbanization rate. The birth rate and per capita GDP factors have negative impacts on the population aging, however, migration rate and urbanization rate have positive impacts on population aging. Birth rate is the leading factor, and migration rate plays a key role in prompting population aging. Urbanization rate is increasingly more significant for population aging.

Key words: population aging, coefficient of aging population, spatiotemporal differentiation, influencing factors, Jilin Province

Lin MEI, Yanhua GUO, Yan CHEN. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin Province[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(3): 352-362.

Figures/Tables 11

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模型	非标准化系数		标准化系数	t	P	共线性统计量
模型	B		标准化系数	t	标准误差	容差	VIF
a₀	1.158	0.430		2.696	0.010
X₁	-0.106	0.042	-0.252	-2.546	0.015^**	0.820	1.219
X₂	0.295	0.073	0.478	4.026	0.000^***	0.569	1.758
X₃	0.041	0.019	0.258	2.201	0.034^**	0.583	1.716
X₄	0.041	0.060	0.123	0.689	0.495	0.251	3.990
X₅	-0.024	0.054	-0.065	-0.437	0.664	0.363	2.756
X₆	-0.052	0.033	-0.304	-1.566	0.125	0.213	4.694
X₇	0.036	0.011	0.354	3.404	0.002^***	0.744	1.345
X₈	-0.007	0.023	-0.060	-0.308	0.760	0.210	4.768

年份	Moran's I	E(I)	Z(I)	P值
1990年	0.462	-0.021	4.750	<0.001
2000年	0.416	-0.021	4.737	<0.001
2010年	0.480	-0.021	5.336	<0.001

参数	全方位			南—北		东北—西南			东—西			东南—西北
参数	D		R²		D	R²		D	R²	D	R²	D	R²
1990年	1.802	0.754		1.888	0.214	1.932	0.104		1.646	0.776		1.905	0.469
2000年	1.742	0.926		1.826	0.213	1.573	0.892		1.787	0.810		1.390	0.676
2010年	1.834	0.779		1.830	0.421	1.744	0.447		1.721	0.938		1.899	0.229

年份		1990年	2000年	2010年
变程/km	A	203.5	281.4	655.3
块金值	C₀	0.0146	0.0001	0.0233
基台值	C₀+C	0.0788	0.0384	0.1592
块金系数	C₀ /(C₀+C)	0.1852	0.0026	0.1463
拟合模型	Model	球体模型	指数模型	高斯模型
决定系数	R²	0.865	0.988	0.955

模型	非标准化系数		标准化系数	t	P	共线性统计量
模型	B		标准化系数	t	标准误差	容差	VIF
a₀	4.039	0.641		6.298	0.000
X₁	-0.298	0.108	-0.373	-2.771	0.009^***	0.466	2.146
X₂	-0.054	0.057	-0.098	-0.942	0.352	0.777	1.286
X₃	0.065	0.034	0.208	1.908	0.064^*	0.713	1.403
X₄	-0.162	0.068	-0.316	-2.387	0.022^**	0.482	2.075
X₅	-0.069	0.069	-0.202	-1.009	0.319	0.209	4.777
X₆	0.147	0.053	0.431	2.745	0.009^***	0.342	2.921
X₇	0.033	0.024	0.176	1.397	0.170	0.534	1.872
X₈	0.017	0.047	0.064	0.366	0.716	0.278	3.601

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin Province

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