基于非期望产出和门槛回归模型的环渤海地区生态效率

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.02.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the slack based measure (SBM) model of undesirable outputs, we measured the eco-efficiency of 44 cities in the Bohai Rim area from 2005 to 2015, depicted the spatiotemporal change characteristics, and analyzed the influencing factors with panel threshold regression model for stimulating ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The results are as follows: (1) Eco-efficiency value is generally overestimated without considering undesirable outputs, indicating that undesirable outputs in the process of economy activities reduced true economy value fairly and considering undesirable outputs is reasonable; (2) From 2005 to 2010, the eco-efficiency types generally improved, but they deteriorated from 2010 to 2015, possibly relating to the transform of economic development mode and driving forces; (3) There exits interprovincial differentiation and imbalance in the number and spatial distribution of eco-efficiency types and a clear spatial aggregation character in regions of same eco-efficiency type; (4) Double threshold character appears in the relation of technology level, city scale, openness to the outside world, and environmental regulation for eco-efficiency. Industrial structure has a vital impact on regional eco-efficiency. Improving the capabilities of technology uptake and re-innovation, joint pollution control, and the quality of population, strengthening the "technical effect" heightening positive influences of threshold variables on ecological efficiency in the Bohai Rim area, and optimizing industrial structure and information system construction are also important methods for improving ecological efficiency.

Key words: eco-efficiency, undesirable output, panel threshold, Bohai Rim area

Zenglin HAN, Ailing WU, Fei PENG, Jiaze SUN, Kang XIA. Eco-efficiency in the Bohai Rim area based on undesirable outputs and threshold regression model[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(2): 255-265.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab.1

Tab.2

Eco-efficiency value of each city in the Bohai Rim area with and without considering undesirable outputs"

地区	2005			2010		2015		地区	2005			2010			2015
地区	考虑非期望ρ^*		未考虑非期望ρ^*		考虑非期望ρ^*	未考虑非期望ρ^*		考虑非期望ρ^*		未考虑非期望ρ^*	考虑非期望ρ^*	未考虑非期望ρ^*	考虑非期望ρ^*	未考虑非期望ρ^*	考虑非期望ρ^*	未考虑非期望ρ^*
北京	1.000	1.000		0.946	0.936	0.919	0.904	盘锦	1.000	0.920		1.000	0.923		0.767	0.767
天津	0.596	0.693		0.532	0.602	0.365	0.418	铁岭	0.924	0.974		0.963	0.969		0.829	0.845
石家庄	0.674	0.782		0.706	0.761	0.484	0.554	朝阳	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000		0.776	0.839
唐山	0.798	0.960		0.753	0.859	0.523	0.656	葫芦岛	0.919	0.952		1.000	1.000		0.835	0.861
秦皇岛	0.965	0.953		1.000	0.961	0.756	0.756	辽宁省	0.928	0.944		0.972	0.960		0.797	0.814
邯郸	0.818	0.935		0.867	0.931	0.638	0.720	济南	0.747	0.785		0.756	0.751		0.522	0.576
邢台	0.769	0.852		0.785	0.827	0.604	0.652	青岛	0.768	0.815		0.805	0.807		0.876	0.623
保定	1.000	1.000		0.942	0.915	0.710	0.719	淄博	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000		0.604	0.664
张家口	0.859	0.944		0.894	0.933	0.747	0.764	枣庄	0.806	0.868		0.868	0.887		0.707	0.716
承德	0.940	0.965		1.000	1.000	0.753	0.791	东营	0.882	0.931		0.919	0.900		0.730	0.706
沧州	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000	0.769	0.801	烟台	0.817	0.848		0.804	0.798		0.556	0.589
廊坊	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000	0.794	0.800	潍坊	0.789	0.846		0.814	0.866		0.571	0.616
衡水	0.821	0.878		0.881	0.880	0.754	0.734	济宁	0.798	0.870		0.783	0.829		0.603	0.631
河北省	0.877	0.933		0.893	0.915	0.685	0.722	泰安	0.862	0.897		0.887	0.894		0.682	0.682
沈阳	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	威海	0.925	0.922		1.000	1.000		1.000	0.716
大连	0.887	0.899		1.000	0.865	0.600	0.647	日照	0.953	0.967		0.945	0.919		0.692	0.723
鞍山	0.721	0.791		0.803	0.824	0.576	0.627	莱芜	0.944	0.972		1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000
抚顺	0.821	0.868		1.000	1.000	0.707	0.718	临沂	0.838	0.866		0.882	0.882		0.585	0.652
本溪	1.000	1.000		1.000	1.000	1.000	0.886	德州	0.804	0.898		0.816	0.863		0.660	0.665
丹东	1.000	1.000		1.000	0.966	0.876	0.895	聊城	0.869	0.908		0.865	0.880		0.685	0.706
锦州	0.838	0.889		0.930	0.955	0.829	0.870	滨州	0.818	0.899		0.875	0.887		0.680	0.726
营口	1.000	1.000		0.915	0.946	0.724	0.729	菏泽	0.922	0.929		0.860	0.908		0.703	0.732
阜新	0.925	0.968		1.000	1.000	0.816	0.880	山东省	0.855	0.895		0.875	0.887		0.698	0.690
辽阳	0.964	0.958		1.000	1.000	0.824	0.838

Tab.2

Fig.1

Tab.3

Tab.4

Tab.5

Fig.2

Tab.6

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指标	类型	具体指标
投入指标	劳动投入	单位从业人员人数/万人
	实物资本投入	供水总量/10⁴t
		地区总能耗/10⁴t标准煤
		城市建设用地面积/km²
	货币资本投入	固定资本存量/万元
产出指标	期望产出	地区生产总值/万元
	非期望产出	城市废水排放量/10⁴m³
		工业二氧化硫排放量/t
		工业烟粉尘排放量/t 城市垃圾清运量/10⁴t

影响因素	解释变量	具体指标	代码
经济	经济规模	人均GDP/(元/人)	PGDP
经济	产业结构	第二产业比重/%	STHD
社会	科技水平	每万人大学生人数/人	TECH
	科技水平	科学技术财政支出/万元	TECH
	城市规模	年末总人口/万人	SCAL
	信息化	互联网用户数量/户	INFO
	对外开放	港澳台与外商企业工业产值之和占工业总产值比重/%	INEX
生态	环境规制	污水处理率/%	ECRE
		二氧化硫去除率/%
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%

指标	科技水平 TECH	城市规模 SCAL	对外开放 INEX	环境规制 ECRE
单一门槛检验	3.935^** [0.032]	9.869^*** [0.000]	10.040^*** [0.000]	8.108^*** [0.004]
双重门槛检	20.575^*** [0.000]	51.852^*** [0.000]	11.207^*** [0.000]	5.658^*** [0.004]
三重门槛检验	0.000 [0.224]	0.000 [0.452]	0.000 [0.174]	0.000 [0.420]
样本最小值	7.97/452	124.38	1.08%	6.99%/1.42%/9.40%
样本最大值	1185.76/2877956	1339.30	66.73%	100%/99.3%8/100%
样本均值	179.65/98835	528.44	15.68%	80.22%/51.42%/89.89%

门槛变量	门槛估计值	95%置信区间	门槛估计值	95%置信区间
科技水平(TECH)	1.069	[1.055, 2.193]	1.517	[1.069, 1.590]
城市规模(SCAL)	2.511 (583.2)	[1.388, 4.181]	3.138 (773.7)	[1.198, 3.683]
对外开放(INEX)	1.553 (10.16)	[1.463, 3.403]	2.823 (30.99)	[1.550, 3.115]
环境规制(ECRE)	3.129	[2.565, 3.963]	3.825	[2.609, 4.078]

变量	系数	变量	系数	变量	系数	变量	系数
PGDP	0.007 (0.013)	PGDP	0.007 (0.014)	PGDP	0.001 (0.012)	PGDP	0.012 (0.013)
STHD	0.051^*** (0.013)	STHD	0.060^*** (0.015)	STHD	0.054^*** (0.013)	STHD	0.046^*** (0.013)
INEX	0.010 (0.009)	INEX	0.009 (0.009)	TECH	0.089^*** (0.023)	INEX	0.010 (0.009)
SCAL	-0.305^*** (0.009)	TECH	0.091^*** (0.023)	SCAL	-0.273^*** (0.008)	TECH	0.073^*** (0.023)
INFO	0.003 (0.020)	INFO	0.006 (0.021)	INFO	0.007 (0.020)	SCAL	-0.307^*** (0.008)
ECRE	0.004 (0.011)	ECRE	0.005 (0.011)	ECRE	0.002 (0.011)	INFO	0.004 (0.020)
E·I(TECH≤δ₁)	0.149^*** (0.047)	E·I(SCAL≤τ₁)	1.982^*** (0.034)	E·I(INEX≤η₁)	0.131^*** (0.028)	E·I(ECRE≤ν₁)	0.050^** (0.021)
E·I(δ₁<ENER≤δ₂)	0.134^*** (0.039)	E·I(τ₁<SCAL≤τ₂)	-0.335^*** (0.012)	E·I(η₁<INEX≤η₂)	0.073^*** (0.016)	E·I(ν₁<ECRE≤ν₂)	0.034^** (0.016)
E·I(ENER>δ₂)	0.097^*** (0.027)	E·I(SCAL>τ₂)	-0.334^*** (0.009)	E·I(INEX>η₂)	0.031^*** (0.011)	E·I(ECRE>ν₂)	0.023 (0.015)
C	1.181^*** (0.0852)	C	0.974^*** (0.073)	C	1.056^*** (0.078)	C	1.155^*** (0.079)
R²	0.829	R²	0.984	R²	0.812	R²	0.826

Eco-efficiency in the Bohai Rim area based on undesirable outputs and threshold regression model

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[3]	Yunxiao DANG, Jianhui YU, Wenzhong ZHANG, YeJin LI, Li CHEN, Dongsheng ZHAN. Satisfaction evaluation of living environment and influencing factors in the Bohai Rim area [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(2): 184-194.
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