PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 974-985.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.006
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Lulu JIN1,2(), Canfei HE1,2,*(
), Yi ZHOU1,2, Xuqian HU1,2
Online:
2017-08-31
Published:
2017-08-28
Contact:
Canfei HE
E-mail:jinlulu1006@163.com;hecanfei@urban.pku.edu.cn
Supported by:
Lulu JIN, Canfei HE, Yi ZHOU, Xuqian HU. Path creation in China's industrial evolution[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(8): 974-985.
Tab.1
Description of variables"
Sub | Entry | Exit | SOE | FIE | PRI | Exp | Size | Pop | Expen | N | Mean | Std. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sub | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.29 | 0.45 | |||||||||
Entry | -0.21 | 1.00 | 78029 | 0.29 | 0.45 | ||||||||
Exit | -0.17 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 71481 | 0.22 | 0.42 | |||||||
SOE | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.20 | 0.35 | ||||||
FIE | 0.05 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.19 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.10 | 0.24 | |||||
PRI | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.09 | -0.41 | -0.22 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.34 | 0.39 | ||||
Exp | 0.14 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.08 | 1.00 | 113613 | 0.19 | 0.32 | |||
Size | 0.09 | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 0.01 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 113613 | 295.22 | 866.16 | ||
Pop | 0.09 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 113413 | 501.25 | 346.39 | |
Expen | 0.18 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 113486 | 96.92 | 199.11 |
Tab.2
Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in China"
进入 | 退出 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999-2008年 | 2009-2012年 | 1999-2008年 | 2009-2012年 | ||||||
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
Sub | 0.095*** | 0.108*** | 0.073*** | 0.073*** | 0.072*** | 0.115*** | 0.065*** | 0.103*** | |
Entry/Exit | -0.107*** | -0.096*** | -0.104*** | -0.107*** | -0.139*** | -0.132*** | -0.125*** | -0.119*** | |
SOE | -0.051*** | -0.050*** | -0.010* | -0.009 | -0.022*** | -0.018*** | -0.019*** | -0.016*** | |
FIE | 0.035*** | 0.028*** | 0.014** | 0.001 | 0.040*** | 0.041*** | 0.047*** | 0.048*** | |
PRI | -0.008*** | -0.007** | 0.010 | 0.014** | -0.046*** | -0.037*** | -0.056*** | -0.049*** | |
Exp | 0.044*** | 0.044*** | 0.027*** | 0.026*** | 0.049*** | 0.050*** | 0.031*** | 0.036*** | |
Size | 0.019*** | 0.028*** | -0.008** | -0.009** | 0.011*** | 0.027*** | -0.001 | 0.011*** | |
Pop | 0.325*** | 0.325*** | 0.074*** | 0.076*** | 0.305*** | 0.304*** | 0.375*** | 0.374*** | |
Expen | 0.199*** | 0.197*** | 0.463*** | 0.457*** | 0.578*** | 0.579*** | 0.688*** | 0.689*** | |
Sub×Entry/ | -0.025*** | 0.002 | -0.109*** | -0.086*** | |||||
Sub×Exit | |||||||||
Sub×SOE | -0.001 | -0.003 | -0.0148*** | -0.011*** | |||||
Sub×FIE | 0.015*** | 0.034*** | -0.005 | -0.005 | |||||
Sub×PRI | -0.007 | -0.017* | -0.034*** | -0.027*** | |||||
Sub×Exp | -0.001 | 0.000 | -0.004 | -0.012*** | |||||
Sub×Size | -0.015*** | 0.000 | -0.022*** | -0.016*** | |||||
Constant | 0.214*** | 0.220*** | -2.323*** | -2.291*** | 0.127*** | 0.123*** | -0.518*** | -0.524*** | |
Observations | 77,254 | 77,254 | 24,117 | 24,117 | 71,275 | 71,275 | 71,275 | 71,275 | |
R-squared | 0.482 | 0.483 | 0.448 | 0.449 | 0.591 | 0.592 | 0.669 | 0.669 |
Tab.3
Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in Eastern, Central, and Western China"
东部 | 中部 | 西部 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | |||
Sub | 0.108*** | 0.113*** | 0.071*** | 0.090*** | 0.095*** | 0.093*** | ||
Entry/Exit | -0.099*** | -0.133*** | -0.088*** | -0.103*** | -0.091*** | -0.127*** | ||
SOE | -0.033*** | -0.023*** | -0.039*** | 0.013*** | -0.022*** | -0.017*** | ||
FIE | 0.026*** | 0.039*** | -0.014** | -0.007 | 0.022** | 0.011 | ||
PRI | -0.028*** | -0.058*** | 0.007 | -0.029*** | 0.003 | -0.021*** | ||
Exp | 0.052*** | 0.051*** | 0.001 | 0.021*** | 0.005 | 0.022*** | ||
Size | 0.023*** | 0.058*** | 0.030*** | 0.013*** | 0.041*** | 0.036*** | ||
Pop | 0.192*** | 0.193*** | 0.195*** | 0.140*** | 0.726*** | 0.624*** | ||
Expen | 0.139*** | 0.477*** | 0.825*** | 2.419*** | 0.529*** | 1.190*** | ||
Sub×Entry /Sub×Exit | -0.027*** | -0.166*** | -0.012** | -0.084*** | -0.021*** | -0.077** | ||
Sub×SOE | -0.013 | -0.014** | 0.005 | -0.006 | 0.013* | -0.009 | ||
Sub×FIE | 0.011** | -0.006 | -0.001 | -0.013 | -0.010 | -0.021* | ||
Sub×PRI | -0.018*** | -0.045*** | 0.004 | -0.001 | 0.005 | -0.001 | ||
Sub×Exp | 0.013** | 0.006 | -0.017** | -0.015* | -0.007 | -0.006 | ||
Sub×Size | 0.016** | -0.030*** | -0.014** | -0.015*** | -0.029*** | -0.030*** | ||
Constant | 0.587*** | 0.412*** | -0.258*** | 0.491*** | 0.174*** | -0.601*** | ||
Observations | 39,995 | 35,382 | 22,755 | 21,568 | 14,504 | 14,325 | ||
R-squared | 0.452 | 0.538 | 0.384 | 0.453 | 0.582 | 0.536 |
Tab.4
Impact of subsidy on the evolution of local industrial structure in regions with different fiscal capacity"
财政能力强 | 财政能力中等 | 财政能力中等 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | 产业进入 | 产业退出 | |||
Sub | 0.053*** | 0.063*** | 0.084*** | 0.098*** | 0.071*** | 0.088*** | ||
Entry/Exit | -0.038*** | -0.093*** | -0.087*** | -0.117*** | -0.074*** | -0.099*** | ||
SOE | -0.008 | -0.018* | -0.034*** | -0.010*** | -0.015 | 0.028*** | ||
FIE | 0.008 | 0.020*** | 0.006 | 0.008* | 0.009 | 0.002 | ||
PRI | -0.013 | -0.020* | -0.005* | -0.037*** | -0.008 | -0.013 | ||
Exp | 0.044*** | 0.060*** | 0.027*** | 0.042*** | 0.002 | 0.011 | ||
Size | 0.096*** | 0.097*** | 0.037*** | 0.022*** | -0.003 | 0.040*** | ||
Pop | 0.742*** | 0.700*** | 0.260*** | 0.223*** | 0.183*** | 0.292*** | ||
Expen | -0.128*** | -0.008 | 0.587*** | 1.643*** | 1.908*** | -1.124*** | ||
Sub×Entry/ Sub×Exit | -0.038*** | -0.076 | -0.016*** | -0.111*** | -0.0159* | -0.088* | ||
Sub×SOE | -0.006 | -0.005 | 0.006 | -0.007* | 0.003 | -0.010 | ||
Sub×FIE | 0.001 | -0.015** | 0.004 | -0.016*** | -0.011 | -0.020 | ||
Sub×PRI | 0.014 | -0.033*** | -0.002 | -0.022*** | 0.026** | 0.012 | ||
Sub×Exp | 0.020** | 0.011 | -0.006 | -0.016*** | -0.023** | -0.010 | ||
Sub×Size | -0.012 | -0.056*** | -0.027*** | -0.020*** | 0.015 | -0.019 | ||
Constant | 0.697*** | 0.404*** | 0.135*** | 0.574*** | 0.479*** | -0.711*** | ||
Observations | 12118 | 11133 | 58604 | 54528 | 6532 | 5614 | ||
R-squared | 0.712 | 0.772 | 0.395 | 0.483 | 0.467 | 0.442 |
Tab.5
Model robustness test"
进入 | 退出 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | ||
Sub | 0.076*** | 0.098*** | 0.065*** | 0.103*** | |
Entry/Exit | -0.098*** | -0.090*** | -0.125*** | -0.119*** | |
SOE | -0.051*** | -0.051*** | -0.019*** | -0.016*** | |
FIE | 0.045*** | 0.041*** | 0.047*** | 0.048*** | |
PRI | -0.017*** | -0.013*** | -0.056*** | -0.049*** | |
Exp | 0.028*** | 0.032*** | 0.031*** | 0.036*** | |
Size | -0.004 | 0.004 | -0.001 | 0.011*** | |
Pop | 0.360*** | 0.359*** | 0.375*** | 0.374*** | |
Expen | 0.340*** | 0.338*** | 0.688*** | 0.689*** | |
Sub×Entry/Sub×Exit | -0.018*** | -0.086*** | |||
Sub×SOE | -0.001 | -0.011*** | |||
Sub×FIE | 0.007** | -0.005 | |||
Sub×PRI | -0.014*** | -0.027*** | |||
Sub×Exp | -0.009*** | -0.012*** | |||
Sub×Size | -0.012*** | -0.016*** | |||
Constant | -0.802*** | -0.803*** | -0.518*** | -0.524*** | |
Observations | 77,254 | 77,254 | 71,275 | 71,275 | |
R-squared | 0.630 | 0.630 | 0.669 | 0.669 |
1 |
贺灿飞, 董瑶, 周沂. 2016. 中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化[J]. 地理学报, 71(6): 970-983.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606006 |
[He C F, Dong Y, Zhou Y.2016. Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 71(6): 970-983.]
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606006 |
|
2 |
侯纯光, 程钰, 任建兰, 等. 2016. 中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 35(10): 1206-1217.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.10.004 |
[Hou C G, Cheng Y, Ren J L, et al.2016. Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of innovation capacity in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 35(10): 1206-1217.]
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.10.004 |
|
3 |
刘志高, 尹贻梅, 孙静. 2011. 产业集群形成的演化经济地理学研究评述[J]. 地理科学进展, 30(6): 652-657.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.06.002 |
[Liu Z G, Yin Y M, Sun J.2011. A review of the research progress on industrial cluster formation from the perspective of evolutionary economic geography[J]. Progress in Geography, 30(6): 652-657.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.06.002 |
|
4 | 罗芊, 贺灿飞, 郭琪. 2016. 基于地级市尺度的中国外资空间动态与本土产业演化[J]. 地理科学进展, 35(11): 1369-1380. |
[Luo Q, He C F, Guo Q.2016. Interaction between the spatial dynamics of foreign direct investment and domestic industrial change in Chinese prefecture-level cities[J]. Progress in Geography, 35(11): 1369-1380.] | |
5 | 倪家铸, 严英龙. 1993. 地方政府投资行为研究[M]. 北京: 中国经济出版社. [Ni J Z, Yan Y L. 1993. Difang zhengfu touzi xingwei yanjiu[M]. Beijing, China: China Economic Press.] |
6 | 宋凌云, 王贤彬. 2013. 政府补贴与产业结构变动[J]. 中国工业经济, (4): 94-106. |
[Song L Y, Wang X B.2013. Government subsidy and industrial structural change[J]. China Industrial Economics, (4): 94-106.] | |
7 | 张晖. 2011. 技术创新、路径依赖与路径创造: 产业升级的困境与突破[J]. 当代经济管理, 33(7): 6-9. |
[Zhang H.2011. Technological innovation, path dependence and path creation: Dilemma and breakthrough of industry upgrading[J]. Contemporary Economy & Management, 33(7): 6-9.] | |
8 | Abdon A, Felipe J.2011. The product space: What does it say about the opportunities for growth and structural transformation of sub-Saharan Africa[R]. Levy Economics Institute Working Papers No.670. New York, NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. |
9 |
Boschma R, Capone G.2015. Institutions and diversification: Related versus unrelated diversification in a varieties of capitalism framework[J]. Research Policy, 44(10): 1902-1914.
doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2015.06.013 |
10 |
Boschma R, Capone G.2016. Relatedness and diversification in the European Union (EU-27) and European Neighbourhood Policy countries[J]. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 34(4): 617-637.
doi: 10.1177/0263774X15614729 |
11 |
Boschma R, Heimeriks G, Balland P A.2014. Scientific knowledge dynamics and relatedness in biotech cities[J]. Research Policy, 43(1): 107-114.
doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2013.07.009 |
12 |
Boschma R, Minondo A, Navarro M.2012. Related variety and regional growth in Spain[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 91(2): 241-256.
doi: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2011.00387.x |
13 |
Buenstorf G, Klepper S.2010. Submarket dynamics and innovation: The case of the US tire industry[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 19(5): 1563-1587.
doi: 10.1093/icc/dtq044 |
14 |
Cheung K Y, Lin P.2004. Spillover effects of FDI on innovation in China: Evidence from the provincial data[J]. China Economic Review, 15(1): 25-44.
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.419020 |
15 | He C F, Yan Y, Rigby D.Regional industrial evolution in China[J]. Papers in Regional Science, in press. |
16 |
Hidalgo C A, Klinger B, Barabási A L, et al.2007. The product space conditions the development of nations[J]. Science, 317: 482-487.
doi: 10.1126/science.1144581 pmid: 17656717 |
17 | Jankowska A, Nagengast A, Perea J R, et al.2012. The product space and the middle-income trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American experiences[R]. OECD Development Centre Working Papers No. 311. Paris, France: OECD Publishing. |
18 |
Klepper S, Simons K L.2000. The making of an oligopoly: firm survival and technological change in the evolution of the U.S. tire industry[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 108(4): 728-760.
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.235390 |
19 |
Lin G C S, Yi F X.2011. Urbanization of capital or capitalization on urban land? Land development and local public finance in urbanizing China[J]. Urban Geography, 32(1): 50-79.
doi: 10.2747/0272-3638.32.1.50 |
20 | Marshall A.1920. Industry and trade[M]. London, UK: Macmillan. |
21 |
Martin R, Sunley P.2006. Path dependence and regional economic evolution[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 6(4): 395-437.
doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbl012 |
22 | Martin R, Sunley P.2010. The place of path dependence in an evolutionary perspective on the economic landscape[M]//Boschma R, Martin R. Handbook of evolutionary economic geography. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing: 62-92. |
23 |
Maskell P, Malmberg A.1999. Localised learning and industrial competitiveness[J]. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 23(2): 167-185.
doi: 10.1093/cje/23.2.167 |
24 |
Neffke F, Henning M, Boschma R.2011. How do regions diversify over time? Industry relatedness and the development of new growth paths in regions[J]. Economic Geography, 87(3): 237-265.
doi: 10.1111/j.1944-8287.2011.01121.x |
25 | Nelson R R, Winter S G.1982. An evolutionary theory of economic change[M]. London, UK: The Belknap Press. |
26 |
Poncet S.2005. A fragmented China: Measure and determinants of Chinese domestic market disintegration[J]. Review of International Economics, 13(3): 409-430.
doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00514.x |
27 |
Qian Y Y, Roland G.1998. Federalism and the soft budget constraint[J]. The American Economic Review, 88(5): 1143-1162.
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.149988 |
28 |
Romer P M.1994. The origins of endogenous growth[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1): 3-22.
doi: 10.1257/jep.8.1.3 |
29 | Schumpeter J A.1939. Business cycles[M]. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. |
30 | Scott A J, Storper M.1987. High technology industry and regional development: A theoretical critique and reconstruction[J]. International Social Science Journal, 112: 215-232. |
31 |
Young A.2000. The razor's edge: Distortions and incremental reform in the People's Republic of China[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(4): 1091-1135.
doi: 10.1162/003355300555024 |
32 |
Zhao X B, Zhang L.1999. Decentralization reforms and regionalism in China: A review[J]. International Regional Science Review, 22(3): 251-281.
doi: 10.1177/016001799761012424 |
[1] | Zhengyuan ZHAO, Zhigao LIU. Review of tourist destination research in the perspective of evolutionary economic geography [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(1): 101-110. |
[2] | Qi GUO, Canfei HE. Progress of research on technological relatedness in the perspective of evolutionary economic geography [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(2): 229-238. |
[3] | LV Chen, SUN Wei. Impacting factors of population agglomeration areas on migration:a case study in Dongguan City [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(5): 593-604. |
[4] | Jiawei WU, Feng YUAN, Weiguo LV, Guiling WANG. Spatiotemporal change of foreign direct investment and mechanism in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area under the global financial crisis [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1601-1613. |
|