中国区域产业结构演化的路径突破

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.006

Abstract

Abstract:

In evolutionary economics, the notion of path creation has attracted much attention in recent years. Previous research has expounded the possibility of path dependence and path creation in the process of regional industrial evolution, but it remains unknown that who changes the existing production capacity and accomplishes path creation. This article focuses on regional production capacity, and applies the indicator of density defined by Hidalgo. Based on the data of 424 four-digit industry of 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2012, this article discusses the path creation of China's industrial evolution. It is found that the entry and exit of an industry would break the original production structure of a region and become the creator of a new path. Governmental subsidies, on the one hand, can promote the development of a region's existing production capacity to enhance the regional's path dependence trend, but also can influence industry dynamics and accelerate the process of path creation. The selection of evolutionary path has significant regional differences. This study will help deepen the understanding of the change of China's industrial structure and its regional differentiation, and provides new evidence from developing countries for the development of evolutionary economic geography.

Key words: path creation, path dependence, industry evolution, new industry, exit industry, product capacity, governmental subsidies

Lulu JIN, Canfei HE, Yi ZHOU, Xuqian HU. Path creation in China's industrial evolution[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(8): 974-985.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 32

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	Sub	Entry	Exit	SOE	FIE	PRI	Exp	Size	Pop	Expen	N	Mean	Std.
Sub	1.00										113613	0.29	0.45
Entry	-0.21	1.00									78029	0.29	0.45
Exit	-0.17	0.20	1.00								71481	0.22	0.42
SOE	-0.03	-0.09	0.16	1.00							113613	0.20	0.35
FIE	0.05	-0.01	-0.08	-0.19	1.00						113613	0.10	0.24
PRI	0.02	0.06	-0.09	-0.41	-0.22	1.00					113613	0.34	0.39
Exp	0.14	-0.06	-0.13	-0.10	0.40	-0.08	1.00				113613	0.19	0.32
Size	0.09	-0.07	-0.06	0.13	0.01	-0.10	0.15	1.00			113613	295.22	866.16
Pop	0.09	-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1.00		113413	501.25	346.39
Expen	0.18	-0.11	-0.12	-0.13	0.17	0.02	0.10	-0.02	0.46	1.00	113486	96.92	199.11

	进入					退出
	1999-2008年			2009-2012年		1999-2008年		2009-2012年
	(1)		(2)	(3)	(4)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Sub	0.095^***	0.108^***	0.073^***	0.073^***		0.072^***	0.115^***	0.065^***	0.103^***
Entry/Exit	-0.107^***	-0.096^***	-0.104^***	-0.107^***		-0.139^***	-0.132^***	-0.125^***	-0.119^***
SOE	-0.051^***	-0.050^***	-0.010^*	-0.009		-0.022^***	-0.018^***	-0.019^***	-0.016^***
FIE	0.035^***	0.028^***	0.014^**	0.001		0.040^***	0.041^***	0.047^***	0.048^***
PRI	-0.008^***	-0.007^**	0.010	0.014^**		-0.046^***	-0.037^***	-0.056^***	-0.049^***
Exp	0.044^***	0.044^***	0.027^***	0.026^***		0.049^***	0.050^***	0.031^***	0.036^***
Size	0.019^***	0.028^***	-0.008^**	-0.009^**		0.011^***	0.027^***	-0.001	0.011^***
Pop	0.325^***	0.325^***	0.074^***	0.076^***		0.305^***	0.304^***	0.375^***	0.374^***
Expen	0.199^***	0.197^***	0.463^***	0.457^***		0.578^***	0.579^***	0.688^***	0.689^***
Sub×Entry/		-0.025^***		0.002			-0.109^***		-0.086^***
Sub×Exit		-0.025^***		0.002			-0.109^***		-0.086^***
Sub×SOE		-0.001		-0.003			-0.0148^***		-0.011^***
Sub×FIE		0.015^***		0.034^***			-0.005		-0.005
Sub×PRI		-0.007		-0.017^*			-0.034^***		-0.027^***
Sub×Exp		-0.001		0.000			-0.004		-0.012^***
Sub×Size		-0.015^***		0.000			-0.022^***		-0.016^***
Constant	0.214^***	0.220^***	-2.323^***	-2.291^***		0.127^***	0.123^***	-0.518^***	-0.524^***
Observations	77,254	77,254	24,117	24,117		71,275	71,275	71,275	71,275
R-squared	0.482	0.483	0.448	0.449		0.591	0.592	0.669	0.669

	东部			中部			西部
	产业进入		产业退出		产业进入	产业退出	产业进入	产业退出
Sub	0.108^***	0.113^***		0.071^***	0.090^***		0.095^***	0.093^***
Entry/Exit	-0.099^***	-0.133^***		-0.088^***	-0.103^***		-0.091^***	-0.127^***
SOE	-0.033^***	-0.023^***		-0.039^***	0.013^***		-0.022^***	-0.017^***
FIE	0.026^***	0.039^***		-0.014^**	-0.007		0.022^**	0.011
PRI	-0.028^***	-0.058^***		0.007	-0.029^***		0.003	-0.021^***
Exp	0.052^***	0.051^***		0.001	0.021^***		0.005	0.022^***
Size	0.023^***	0.058^***		0.030^***	0.013^***		0.041^***	0.036^***
Pop	0.192^***	0.193^***		0.195^***	0.140^***		0.726^***	0.624^***
Expen	0.139^***	0.477^***		0.825^***	2.419^***		0.529^***	1.190^***
Sub×Entry /Sub×Exit	-0.027^***	-0.166^***		-0.012^**	-0.084^***		-0.021^***	-0.077^**
Sub×SOE	-0.013	-0.014^**		0.005	-0.006		0.013^*	-0.009
Sub×FIE	0.011^**	-0.006		-0.001	-0.013		-0.010	-0.021^*
Sub×PRI	-0.018^***	-0.045^***		0.004	-0.001		0.005	-0.001
Sub×Exp	0.013^**	0.006		-0.017^**	-0.015^*		-0.007	-0.006
Sub×Size	0.016^**	-0.030^***		-0.014^**	-0.015^***		-0.029^***	-0.030^***
Constant	0.587^***	0.412^***		-0.258^***	0.491^***		0.174^***	-0.601^***
Observations	39,995	35,382		22,755	21,568		14,504	14,325
R-squared	0.452	0.538		0.384	0.453		0.582	0.536

	财政能力强			财政能力中等			财政能力中等
	产业进入		产业退出		产业进入	产业退出	产业进入	产业退出
Sub	0.053^***	0.063^***		0.084^***	0.098^***		0.071^***	0.088^***
Entry/Exit	-0.038^***	-0.093^***		-0.087^***	-0.117^***		-0.074^***	-0.099^***
SOE	-0.008	-0.018^*		-0.034^***	-0.010^***		-0.015	0.028^***
FIE	0.008	0.020^***		0.006	0.008^*		0.009	0.002
PRI	-0.013	-0.020^*		-0.005^*	-0.037^***		-0.008	-0.013
Exp	0.044^***	0.060^***		0.027^***	0.042^***		0.002	0.011
Size	0.096^***	0.097^***		0.037^***	0.022^***		-0.003	0.040^***
Pop	0.742^***	0.700^***		0.260^***	0.223^***		0.183^***	0.292^***
Expen	-0.128^***	-0.008		0.587^***	1.643^***		1.908^***	-1.124^***
Sub×Entry/ Sub×Exit	-0.038^***	-0.076		-0.016^***	-0.111^***		-0.0159^*	-0.088^*
Sub×SOE	-0.006	-0.005		0.006	-0.007^*		0.003	-0.010
Sub×FIE	0.001	-0.015^**		0.004	-0.016^***		-0.011	-0.020
Sub×PRI	0.014	-0.033^***		-0.002	-0.022^***		0.026^**	0.012
Sub×Exp	0.020^**	0.011		-0.006	-0.016^***		-0.023^**	-0.010
Sub×Size	-0.012	-0.056^***		-0.027^***	-0.020^***		0.015	-0.019
Constant	0.697^***	0.404^***		0.135^***	0.574^***		0.479^***	-0.711^***
Observations	12118	11133		58604	54528		6532	5614
R-squared	0.712	0.772		0.395	0.483		0.467	0.442

	进入			退出
	(1)		(2)	(1)	(2)
Sub	0.076^***	0.098^***		0.065^***	0.103^***
Entry/Exit	-0.098^***	-0.090^***		-0.125^***	-0.119^***
SOE	-0.051^***	-0.051^***		-0.019^***	-0.016^***
FIE	0.045^***	0.041^***		0.047^***	0.048^***
PRI	-0.017^***	-0.013^***		-0.056^***	-0.049^***
Exp	0.028^***	0.032^***		0.031^***	0.036^***
Size	-0.004	0.004		-0.001	0.011^***
Pop	0.360^***	0.359^***		0.375^***	0.374^***
Expen	0.340^***	0.338^***		0.688^***	0.689^***
Sub×Entry/Sub×Exit		-0.018^***			-0.086^***
Sub×SOE		-0.001			-0.011^***
Sub×FIE		0.007^**			-0.005
Sub×PRI		-0.014^***			-0.027^***
Sub×Exp		-0.009^***			-0.012^***
Sub×Size		-0.012^***			-0.016^***
Constant	-0.802^***	-0.803^***		-0.518^***	-0.524^***
Observations	77,254	77,254		71,275	71,275
R-squared	0.630	0.630		0.669	0.669

Path creation in China's industrial evolution

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